Less than five months from a historic election, Portland may tweak campaign finance rules to stretch the city’s cash-strapped public financing program.

On Friday, city candidates were emailed a survey asking whether the city’s Small Donor Elections program should loosen its rules around the amount and type of in-kind donations nonprofits and other political organizations can give candidates.

The proposal, first reported by Willamette Week, has drawn both praise and alarm from those involved in city campaigns.

“We don’t need more money in politics,” said Marie Glickman, a candidate running to represent Portland’s new District 2, which spans North and Northeast Portland. “The ideas being discussed are anti-democratic.”

The small donor program rewards candidates who don’t accept individual donations over $350 by matching those contributions with public funds 9-to-1. The program was created to level the playing field for candidates who may have fewer deep-pocketed supporters than others — potentially hampering their ability to fund a competitive campaign.

This year’s general election has attracted a uniquely large pool of candidates, due to voter-approved changes that scrapped primary elections and set the stage for 14 city elected offices to be open all at once. Nearly 80 candidates have applied to participate in the program so far.

Due to the large number of participants and limited amount of available funding, the Portland Elections Commission in January chose to lower the amount of total funds council candidates can receive from the city through the program to $120,000 from the previous $300,000 cap.

Through the program, candidates are limited to receiving no more than $10,000 worth of in-kind donations from political committees and non-profits. Those organizations must receive at least 90% of their annual funds from contributions of $250 or less per donor, a rule meant to exclude committees fueled by wealthy donors. Those donations are limited to paying staff to canvas or run a phone bank, sharing donor lists, and assisting with general campaign planning.

The Friday survey asked candidates if contributing organizations should be able to spend more than $10,000 on in-kind donations and to broaden the donations included — like allowing organizations to donate space to host campaign events, fundraisers, and print and distribute for campaigns. It also asked whether organizations can still participate in the small donor program if they receive 90% of their funding from contributions of $350 or less — instead of $250.

Jake Weigler, a political consultant with Praxis Political, said this would allow political committees with wealthier donors to contribute.

“If your goal was to reduce the influence of large organizations in the campaign process, this undercuts that by giving them a larger role,” said Weigler, who is working on several City Council campaigns.

Susan Mottet oversees the Small Donor Election program and distributed the survey on behalf of the Portland Elections Commission, which makes recommendations on city election rules. She said these proposed changes could help campaigns stretch limited funds a bit further.

“With no ability to increase campaign matching caps, we have to look at options,” she said. “The Portland Elections Commission is trying to figure out if there is anything they have power to do to get candidates more support without making changes that undercut the intent of the program.”

She knows the spotlight is on her office this election.

“Obviously, the program succeeds or fails based on if a campaign is viable,” Mottet said.

Weigler said the proposed changes to the program reflect this pressure.

“I get the urgency that they don’t don’t want to fumble this, during such a critical election,” he said. “But it creates inherent tension. It makes it much easier for organizations to put their thumb on the scale and elevate a class of candidates they prefer.”

Some political insiders say these changes are vital for upholding the program’s intent.

“The theory of the original program is to limit the amount of money that organizations can give, and to mitigate that shortfall with city funding,” said Laurie Wimmer, the head of NW Oregon Labor Council, who has convened a group of labor leaders to endorse council candidates this year. “But if that money wanes, like it has this year, it’s only fair that something has to give on the other side of the equation to run a credible campaign.”

Wimmer, who led an unsuccessful campaign for state representative in 2020, said that the cost of sending out one piece of campaign mail could cost over $10,000, the current in-kind limit.

Doug Moore, the former head of the Oregon League of Conservation Voters, now leads United for Portland, a political action committee that represents business and industry groups. He called the current small donor program “disingenuous” because it potentially limits candidates from running what he considers successful campaigns.

“Not being able to fully match funds — that’s bad for democracy in general,” Moore said. “I appreciate the effort to try and help candidates be a little more flexible and able to run campaigns.”

He does worry that the more complex the election’s rules are, the more at-risk candidates are for breaking them, especially if the rules change in the middle of campaign season.

“It’s like they’re trying to build the plane as they’re flying it,” Moore said.

Council candidate Glickman said her campaign hasn’t been hampered by the limited public matching caps. She agrees that the timing of the proposed change is a problem.

“We shouldn’t change rules mid-game,” said Glickman, who is one of more than 20 candidates for District 2 who are participating in the small donor program thus far.

She said that allowing wealthier organizations to support low-cost campaigns is an even bigger concern. The fact that these possible tweaks may be needed, she said, is entirely the city’s fault.

“The city of Portland needs to be more consistent in its planning its programs, funding its programs, and implementing its programs in a responsible and transparent way,” Glickman said.

Not all candidates agree. Steph Routh, a candidate in East Portland’s District 1, was one of the first candidates to qualify for the small donor program. She said she’s been impressed with the level of transparency from the city’s elections program. However, she is cautious to fully endorse the proposed funding changes to the small donor program.

“We created a budget early on assuming we would have limited resources, and we’ve made it work,” Routh said. “I think the fundamental question before us is, ‘How do we create pathways to support a grassroots-based campaign to ensure no single actor or donor creates an advantage after election?’”

The Portland Elections Commission will discuss the survey responses at its Wednesday meeting and potentially propose a policy change. Any new administration policy requires four weeks of public feedback before going into effect, but they don’t require a sign-off from the City Council.

That means the earliest any changes could come to the small donor program could be late July, less than four months from election day.

S&P Global released its Eurozone economic outlook for Q3 2024 on Monday morning, highlighting that growth in the Eurozone has returned mainly due to a fall in energy and commodities prices. 

This is likely to allow gross domestic product (GDP) growth to increase from 0.7% this year to 1.4% in 2025, a slight rise from the 1.3% predicted by S&P Global in March. Eurozone inflation is also expected to come back to the European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2% target by mid-2025, if present conditions remain more or less constant. 

Productivity bouncing back, wages growing at a slower pace and profit margins stabilising should also contribute significantly to cooling inflation. It’s expected to average 2.2% next year, coming down from around 2.4% this year. 

The Eurozone economy has also mostly achieved a soft landing because last winter was milder-than-expected resulting in a knock-on effect on key sectors such as construction. S&P also expects consumer spending to bounce back in the latter half of the year, as retail energy prices abate further, benefiting consumers directly.

However, the report also highlights that the risks of higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and lagging growth have increased since March 2024.

The report also says, “The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine remain the main risks weighing on our immediate economic outlook. That aside, other pockets of risks have intensified in recent months. These concern the decoupling of monetary policies on both sides of the Atlantic, political uncertainty in Europe and the worsening of Europe’s economic relations with China.”

What are some of the risks for Q3 2024?

Political instability also remains a concern, especially in the wake of the recent EU elections. Regarding this, S&P Global’s chief EMEA economist, Sylvain Broyer told Euronews, “We can definitely see some political uncertainty extending more from the national consequences of the European Parliament elections, rather than the elections themselves, with the French snap elections being at the top of everyone’s minds. 

“They are a source of uncertainty and that can definitely undermine confidence and then make the recovery in investments that we expect in 2025 more fragile.”

Another major risk that could be seen in the next few months is the possibility of escalating EU-China tensions, sparked off mainly due to the EU considering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, in order to protect and promote European automobiles. 

The report says, “In terms of trade, China is Europe’s second most important partner after the US. It accounts for 10% of total EU exports and 22% of EU imports, around half of which are products that are critical to the European economy.” 

Coming to how high these tensions could possibly go, Broyer said, “It is obvious that trade relationships between Europe and China are deteriorating and it is very likely that they will get even worse. I don’t think that this will escalate to a full-blown trade war. I also don’t expect the EU-China trade relations to worsen as much as the US-China trade relations. 

This is because the European economy and the Chinese economy are highly interdependent and the respective supply chains are much more intertwined than China is with the US supply chain. For instance, Europe is definitely reliant on China for the import of critical products, such as solar panels, necessary for the green transition, but China is also very dependent on European technology, not just for cars, but also for other transport equipment and electronics. 

Almost 15% of the value added by European companies to electronics is exported to China, so that shows the degree of interconnectedness.” 

There has also been an increasing risk of more European companies leaving the continent’s biggest stock exchanges in order to list elsewhere, in the US or in Asia. 

“This is definitely a sign that European financial markets are too fragmented, too national, too expensive for issuers and for retail investors. To cut a long story short, Europe needs to move forward on the Capital Markets Union, and that is definitely a top priority for the next commission”, says Broyer. 

Similarly, he also believes that streamlining financial and other regulations is key, to make sure that European companies are actually supported and empowered to meet the green transition goals. 

Coming to what the EU can do to attract more investment in the continent, as well as retain companies wishing to leave for the US and other markets, Broyer emphasises that this is not just a case of Europe wanting to win over external competition. It is also about the continent returning to its own previous higher productivity levels, seen in the last few years. 

There could also be a few challenges for the ECB to continue on its rate-cutting path in the near future, according to Broyer. 

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“The needle of the ECB is inflation and the central bank needs to see more progress on wage growth and the most domestic parts of core inflation, in the services prices. Another element which is becoming more and more obvious is the Fed. The longer the Fed waits and doesn’t deliver much guidance on when and by how much it will start cutting rates, the more it is a problem for the ECB to cut rates further.”

Broyer highlights that this decoupling in monetary policy between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve became increasingly obvious in the first three months of the year. 

“European investors have already shifted $50 billion into the US treasury market and probably, it will accelerate in the second and third quarter, so that’s definitely one limitation for the ECB, even if this issue of decoupling monetary policy is a smaller one for central banks generally,” he said. 

Why is Spain expected to see strong growth this year?

The Spanish economy is expected to grow more than Germany in Q3, for a variety of reasons. The report emphasises: “Lower energy costs helped the German economy to emerge from recession in the first quarter of 2024, thanks to a recovery in production in energy-intensive sectors such as the chemicals industry. However, the German economy still lags other large European economies in terms of growth. 

“Spain, noticeably, continues to beat expectations, with GDP growth accelerating for the third consecutive quarter to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. The post-pandemic normalisation of tourism is not the only reason for this. Industrial production is continuously expanding in Spain. Last year, consumer spending was the main driver of growth, adding one percentage point of a 2.5 percentage-point increase in Spain’s GDP.

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“Second-round effects on core inflation have also been more muted in Spain than in many other countries. Stronger employment growth, stimulated by labour market reforms aimed at replacing limited-term employment contracts with open-ended ones, is another explanation. The dynamism in employment does not hinder productivity growth, in contrast to the other three major economies of the Eurozone, Germany, France and Italy.” 

Global law firm White & Case LLP has advised the book running lead managers on the initial public offering (IPO) of Aadhar Housing Finance Limited, a housing finance company focused on the low-income housing segment in India.

“White & Case teams in Singapore, Hong Kong, New York and London successfully advised on a notable IPO in the Indian market, which marks a significant milestone for Aadhar Housing Finance,” said Rahul Guptan, a partner at White & Case who co-led the Firm’s deal team. “This transaction was complex and executed within very tight timelines across multiple jurisdictions, demonstrating our global team’s expertise and commitment.

Aadhar Housing Finance Limited is one of India’s largest housing finance companies, dedicated to supporting the low-income sector.  With branches across 20 states and union territories, the company offers tailored credit solutions to its clients and boasts the highest Assets Under Management and net worth among its peers.

BCP Topco VII Pte. Ltd., the promoter of Aadhar Housing Finance Limited, is an affiliate of funds managed and/or advised by affiliates of Blackstone Group Inc.

Citigroup Global Markets India Private Limited, ICICI Securities Limited, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Private Limited and SBI Capital Markets Limited acted as the book running lead managers for the transaction.

The White & Case team which advised on the transaction was led by partners Rahul Guptan (London) and Kaya Proudian (Singapore), with support from partners Jim Fogarty, Elodie Gal, Steven Gee and Edward So (all New York) and associates Ji Yang Lim, Rachna Talati, Stephanie Zhao (all Singapore), Hilda Leung (Hong Kong) and Daniel Park (New York).

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