Education
Report Projecting Drop in Freshman Enrollment Delivered Incorrect Findings
An error in the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s projection of the number of first-year students starting college last fall caused the organization to report incorrectly that freshman enrollment last year had dropped when in fact it had increased, its director said in a statement this week.
By mistakenly mislabeling a number of first-year college students as high school students taking college or university courses, the center said it underestimated the true number of incoming college students. That led it to erroneously project the largest drop in freshman enrollment since 2020 in a report it published in October.
The acknowledgment on Monday amounted to a reversal of the report’s top-line findings. Those conclusions fed into anxieties in higher education about long-term challenges, including a coming “demographic cliff” caused by a drop in births during the Great Recession and more general doubt about the value of a college degree.
The report was based on preliminary enrollment data that the research center gathered from slightly more than half of all U.S. colleges and universities. After catching its error, the center said it expected to show that enrollment had risen in a report next Thursday, which includes data from nearly all institutions of higher education.
It said that the error had affected previous reports as well, but that “the effect was magnified” last year because of an unusually large number of dual-enrolled high school students. That may have obscured the fact that the number was inflated even more by the center’s overcount.
“The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center acknowledges the importance and significance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community,” the center’s executive director, Doug Shapiro, said in a statement. “We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent such occurrences in the future.”
The faulty numbers were reported by a wide range of news media and trade publications, including The New York Times.
The National Student Clearinghouse, founded in 1993, is a nonprofit that provides services to thousands of U.S. institutions of higher learning, including by maintaining student records and enrollment, degree and student loan data.
While it walked back its conclusions about freshman and dual-enrolled students on Monday, the center said its other findings — including that total undergraduate enrollment had increased — remained sound.
The report last fall also raised alarms that a comparatively tumultuous year for college students applying for federal financial aid might have led to a significant number of students postponing or abandoning college.
Concerns about how the problematic rollout of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid early last year would affect college enrollment left many schools and higher education groups nervously anticipating the center’s October findings.
In a statement on Monday, the Education Department’s under secretary, James Kvaal, said officials were “encouraged and relieved” by the revised assessment.
“The increase is consistent with what we are seeing on the financial aid side: More than 5 percent more students are receiving federal aid this year,” the statement said. “Thank you to the high schools, college counselors, colleges and universities, and community organizations for pulling together to help students and families through a tough year.”
When the report was published in October, the department did not directly dispute its conclusions, but provided a list of other factors that could have explained the apparent decline.
Those included a longer-term downward trend in undergraduate enrollment as documented by the National Center for Education Statistics, a strong labor market drawing high school students directly into the work force and falling rates of college attainment among men.
The revised numbers expected next week instead suggest a modest recovery in the number of students starting college after a steep drop-off during the pandemic, according to the research center’s statement.
Education
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Education
Video: Turning Point USA Clubs Expand to High Schools Across America
“I would just like to say, ‘Welcome to Germany, 1939.’” “We have been labeled as homophobes, bigots, racists and fascists.” “For years, my conservative peers and I have peacefully coexisted with feminist clubs and L.G.B.T.Q. clubs.” This is Onondaga County in Central New York, where a brand of high school clubs founded by Charlie Kirk and financed by his conservative juggernaut Turning Point USA, has led to this. “These accusations are not only untrue, but they undermine the very principles of open dialogue and respectful debate that we promote.” “It really is as bad as you think, just from a student perspective.” “If there’s going to be a Club America, by God, there needs to be a Club Progressive.” Before his assassination, Charlie Kirk made it clear he wanted a TPUSA chapter in every high school. “He told the team, let’s do 25,000 high school chapters. Club America has exploded in popularity in the months since Kirk was killed, with at least 3,300 chapters in high schools across the U.S., according to Turning Point USA. “I’m excited to announce today that every Oklahoma high school will have a Turning Point USA chapter.” States are also endorsing the club. “I’d love to see a chapter in every single high school in the state.” At least eight Republican governors have partnered with Turning Point, vowing to bring Club America to all of their public high schools. But here in New York, where Democrats govern and a statewide embrace of TPUSA’s conservative Christian ideology is unlikely, students like Jacob Kennedy are still trying to launch Club America, even if that means an uphill battle. “I have grown up in a Christian home, which follows mostly the values of conservative beliefs. It’s my first year at a public school. I did not feel accepted to share my conservative beliefs and my religion.” For most of his life, Jacob lived overseas where his parents were missionaries. “And starting this Club America, I am quickly finding other people that have the same values as me.” Jacob really didn’t even know who Charlie Kirk was until he was killed. Since then, he’s connected with Kirk’s message on religion as much as politics. “There was no question at the time of the founding that God played a central role in all of our government.” “Whether it is immigration laws or abortion, I put my religion first and then my political worldviews.” But Jacob’s push to secure approval from the district to establish Club America at his high school has stoked a sense of anxiety in community members who see Charlie Kirk’s rhetoric as racist and homophobic. “This was Charlie Kirk’s organization — that tells you a lot about this club. It’s not for everybody. It’s divisive.” “No matter who it is — Charlie Kirk or Charlie Brown — this is still the United States, and we do have freedom of speech.” Federal law requires equal access to all sorts of clubs, from Jesus and Me to the Afterschool Satan Club. As long as they are student-initiated and aren’t disruptive, anything goes. “So what is Club America? What do we do? We promote the values of free speech, patriotism and small government.” Turning Point USA declined multiple requests from The New York Times to participate in this story, and even told students in Club America chapters not to speak with us. But we did manage to film a public information session addressing the backlash the group has received. “Let’s talk. If we don’t talk, we’ll never get to get outside of our echo chambers. And Charlie Kirk always said, when we stop talking, that’s when violence happens.” “Are you advocating for your student groups to have open discussion? I don’t see that as the actual implementation level, what’s happening.” “Debate is absolutely encouraged in your Club America meetings where you’ve set ground rules for your debates.” “How do you plan on ensuring that kids from the L.G.B.T.Q.+ communities feel more included and feel safe?” “‘There are students of all different backgrounds, all socioeconomic statuses and of all persuasions involved in Club America. And if those students don’t attend, that’s on them. But you’re welcome to be there.” Charlie Kirk’s influence is everywhere from President Trump’s State of the Union address — “My great friend Charlie Kirk, a great guy.” — To his five-story portrait draped outside the Department of Education in D.C. It’s with this singular influence and power in the world of conservative media, politics and faith that Turning Point USA is hoping to get high schoolers registered to vote before this November. Jacob’s goal is much simpler. He just wants to get students together to hash out their differences. But until his club’s approved, he’ll have to engage with them one-on-one. “Whether you support L.G.B.T. rights, whether you are a a son or daughter of an illegal immigrant, whether you are pro-choice, you have the free will to join the club and be a part of it.”
Education
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