Culture
The 8 NFL free-agent signings with the best chance to outproduce their contracts
The first wave of NFL free agency is winding down, and there are now plenty of deals to assess.
In the team free agency rankings we released ahead of the negotiation window earlier this month, we dove into the data from the previous four years, 2021 through 2024. We logged cash spent on each free agent during that span. We also logged the value produced — using Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric — by each player while he was on his free-agent contract. By comparing these two figures, we determined how much value each free agent produced per $1 million in cash spent, or AV per million. And, in turn, we ranked teams at large by how much value they were producing per $1 million cash spent on the free agent market.
Now we can use that data to try and project the best value deals from the early returns in this 2025 free agent class. From 2021 to 2024, the league average in AV per million was .713. That is the benchmark we will use in our projections. Any player who produces more than .713 AV per million can be classified as an above-average return on investment. For reference, quarterback Russell Wilson had the highest AV per million of any free agent signed in the 2024 class. He finished with 9 AV in 11 starts for Pittsburgh. The Steelers paid Wilson just $1.21 million in cash.
What we are looking for are low-cost signings that have the chance to outperform their bargain deals.
Here are our eight best potential value deals of the first wave of free agency.
(All contract figures courtesy of Over the Cap.)
Levi Onwuzurike, IDL, Detroit Lions
2025 cash: $4 million
Interior defensive linemen got paid in this free-agent cycle. Milton Williams signed with the New England Patriots for $26 million in average per year (APY). Osa Odighizuwa returned to the Dallas Cowboys on a contract worth $20 million in APY. Javon Kinlaw got $15 million in APY from the Washington Commanders, while Tershawn Wharton got just over $15 million in APY from the Carolina Panthers. Onwuzurike had more pressures (47) and a higher pass rush win percentage (11.9) than both Wharton and Kinlaw in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus. He returned to the Lions on a far cheaper deal.
Onwuzurike only finished the season with 1 1/2 sacks, and perhaps that lack of box score production affected his market. But the upside here feels tremendous if Onwuzurike can maintain his level of pressure. An AV per million above 2.0 seems well in reach. Only 34 free agents from the 2024 class hit that number in 2024.
Joshua Uche, edge, Philadelphia Eagles
2025 cash: $1.92 million
The Eagles were the clear winners of free agency in 2024. It is no coincidence they went on to win the Super Bowl. Philadelphia received above-average AV per million returns on several free agents, including linebacker Zack Baun (4.0), running back Saquon Barkley (1.2) and guard Mekhi Becton (1.5). Baun was in the top 10 in AV per million after transitioning to off-ball linebacker and having a breakout All-Pro season.
If the Eagles are going to hit big on a 2025 free agent value signing like they did with Baun last year, Uche is a good bet. He is cheap. He had an 11 1/2-sack season with the Patriots in 2022. He will be playing alongside one of the best defensive tackles in football in Jalen Carter. And we saw in 2024 what kind of impact Carter had on his teammates, including Williams and edge rusher Josh Sweat, both of whom left in free agency. The big question with Uche is whether he can earn playing time in a deep edge rusher room in Philly. Nolan Smith Jr., Bryce Huff and Jalyx Hunt all return. The Eagles also signed Azeez Ojulari to a one-year deal in free agency.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Miami Dolphins
2025 cash: $3.2 million
One big theme in our AV-per-million player rankings: Low-cost receivers with a pathway to playing time tend to produce substantial returns on investment. The Washington Commanders had two receivers in our 2024 top 10: Olamide Zaccheaus (4.64 in AV per million) and Noah Brown (4.13). Zaccheaus made $1.29 million in cash and caught 45 passes for 506 yards and three touchdowns. Brown made $1.21 million in cash and caught 35 passes for 453 yards and one touchdown.
Westbrook-Ikhine fits the profile in this year’s class. He has good size at 6-foot-2, 211 pounds and is a legitimate weapon in the red zone. His skill set is a logical complement to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Westbrook-Ikhine had nine touchdowns in 2024, tied for eighth among receivers. Six of those came in the red zone, also tied for eighth.
Richie Grant, S, San Francisco 49ers
2025 cash: $1.5 million
Grant, a former second-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons in 2021, started 32 games over the 2022 and 2023 seasons. But he lost his starting job when coach Raheem Morris and his staff took over in 2024. He should have a chance to compete for a starting job with the 49ers, who lost Talanoa Hufanga in free agency. Grant will have to beat out 2023 third-round pick Ji’Ayir Brown and Jason Pinnock, who San Francisco signed to a one-year, $2.2 million deal in free agency.
If Grant wins the job and plays starting snaps, there is a clear avenue toward a high AV per million. The 49ers have a history of finding value on cheap safety contracts. In 2022, they paid $1.12 million in cash for veteran Tashaun Gipson Sr., who started all 17 games. Gipson’s 6.25 AV per million that season ranks second for any free agent during the 2021-24 window.
If Richie Grant becomes a starter for the 49ers, he could be a bargain for his $1.5 salary in 2025. (Brett Davis / Imagn Images)
Ifeatu Melifonwu, S, Miami Dolphins
2025 cash: $3 million
The Dolphins had to retool their safety room during this year’s free agency period. Jevon Holland signed a big deal with the New York Giants. Jordan Poyer, who turns 34 in April, is a free agent. The Dolphins, at least partially because of their tight cap situation, had to look for cheap answers at the position. They signed Ashtyn Davis to a one-year, $2.5 million deal and they signed Melifonwu to a slightly more expensive contract. Both of these deals have the potential for AV-per-million upside.
Melifonwu, a college cornerback who transitioned to safety in Detroit, has a higher ceiling. He has battled injuries and only played more than 10 games one time in his first four NFL seasons with the Lions. But when he played a full season in 2023, Melifonwu showed a ton of promise, including as a blitzer and in his ball production.
Najee Harris, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
2025 cash: $5.25 million
Harris is positioned to be a workhorse back for the Chargers, who cut Gus Edwards and have not yet re-signed J.K. Dobbins. Harris has not missed a game in his four NFL seasons. He has carried the ball at least 255 times and rushed for at least 1,000 rushing yards in all of those seasons. He has never finished a season with less than 6 AV. He has averaged 7.75 AV per season. This could end up being more of a base-hit signing.
If Harris can rediscover some of his rookie-year form, particularly as a pass catcher, this could become a more significant return on investment. In 2021, Harris caught 74 passes on 94 targets for 467 yards. His quarterback that season was Ben Roethlisberger. Harris produced a career-high 10 AV. The Steelers have been in QB purgatory since then, even if they got some viable production out of Wilson in 2024. Justin Herbert is quite willing to hit his check down if he has the running back to do it. Just ask Austin Ekeler.
This signing is reminiscent of the Devin Singletary deal with the Houston Texans in 2023. Singletary was entering his age-26 season and coming off his rookie deal that offseason. He was moderately productive over his first four seasons. He signed a one-year deal with the Texans and made $3.125 million in cash. That year, Singletary played all 17 games and produced 2.24 AV per million. Harris is entering his age-27 season. The cash figures are slightly elevated. But in terms of percentage of the cap, Singletary was at 1.4 percent. and Harris is at 1.9 percent.
Van Jefferson, WR, Tennessee Titans
2025 cash: $1.67 million
The Titans have some decisions to make before the start of the 2025 season, including who their starting quarterback will be. They have the No. 1 pick, which they could use on a quarterback. They could very well add another receiver in the draft. But as it stands, Jefferson has a chance to be the No. 2 option for whoever is throwing the football, behind Calvin Ridley.
This feels similar to the Zaccheaus and Brown deals, who were playing alongside No. 1 Terry McLaurin. The Commanders struck gold with quarterback Jayden Daniels. At the price, there is plenty of room for a strong return on Jefferson, who in 2021 caught 50 passes for 802 yards and six touchdowns with the Los Angeles Rams.
Cornelius Lucas, OT, Cleveland Browns
2025 cash: $3.25 million
Lucas has made a career out of being a trustworthy swing tackle. The 33-year-old has double-digit career starts on both the right and left side, but he has only started more than eight games in one season.
The Browns do not have a reliable plan for left tackle on the roster. Dawand Jones, a 2023 fourth-round pick, has landed on IR in each of his first two seasons. The team signed Teven Jenkins but he’s primarily been a guard. Jedrick Wills is a free agent. Not to mention that right tackle Jack Conklin turns 31 in August and has battled multiple serious knee injuries, most recently in 2023. If Lucas starts a bunch of games at tackle for the Browns this season, he will be high up in our AV per million rankings next March.
(Top photos of Levi Onwuzurike and Najee Harris: Jorge Lemus / NurPhoto via Getty Images and Candice Ward / Getty Images)
Culture
Xia De-hong, 94, Dies; Persecuted in China, She Starred in Daughter’s Memoir
Xia De-hong, who survived persecution and torture as an official in Mao Zedong’s China and was later the central figure in her daughter’s best-selling 1991 memoir, “Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China,” died on April 15 in Chengdu, China. She was 94.
Ms. Xia’s death, in a hospital, was confirmed by her daughter Jung Chang.
Ms. Chang’s memoir, which was banned in China, was a groundbreaking, intimate account of the country’s turbulent 20th century and the iron grip of Mao’s Communist Party, told through the lives of three generations of women: herself, her mother and her grandmother. An epic of imprisonment, suffering and family loyalty, it sold over 15 million copies in 40 languages.
The story of Ms. Chang’s stoic mother holding the family together while battling on behalf of her husband, a functionary who was tortured and imprisoned during Mao’s regime, was the focus of “Wild Swans,” which emerged out of hours of recordings that Ms. Chang made when Ms. Xia visited her in London in 1988.
Ms. Xia was inspired as a teenager to become an ardent Communist revolutionary because of the mistreatment of women in the Republic of China, as well as the corruption of the Kuomintang nationalists in power. (Her own mother had been forced into concubinage at 15 by a powerful warlord.)
In 1947, in Ms. Xia’s home city of Jinzhou, the Communists were waging guerrilla war against the government. She joined the struggle by distributing pamphlets for Mao, rolling them up inside green peppers after they had been smuggled into the city in bundles of sorghum stalks.
Captured by the Kuomintang, she was forced to listen to “the screams of people being tortured in the rooms nearby,” her daughter later wrote. But that only stiffened her resolve.
She married Chang Shou-yu, an up-and-coming Communist civil servant and acolyte of Mao, in 1949.
It was then that disillusionment began to set in, according to her daughter. The newlyweds were ordered to travel a thousand miles to Sichuan, her husband’s home province. Because of Mr. Chang’s rank, he was allowed to ride in a jeep, but she had to walk, even though she was pregnant, and suffered a miscarriage as a result.
“She was vomiting all the time,” her daughter wrote. “Could he not let her travel in his jeep occasionally? He said he could not, because it would be taken as favoritism since my mother was not entitled to the car.”
That was the first of many times that her husband would insist she bow to the rigid dictates of the party, despite the immense suffering it caused.
When she was a party official in the mid-1950s, Ms. Xia was investigated for her “bourgeois” background and imprisoned for months. She received little support from Mr. Chang.
“As my mother was leaving for detention,” Ms. Chang wrote, “my father advised her: ‘Be completely honest with the party, and have complete trust in it. It will give you the right verdict.’ A wave of aversion swept over her.”
Upon her release in 1957, she told her husband, “You are a good Communist, but a rotten husband.” Mr. Chang could only nod in agreement.
He became one of the top officials in Sichuan, entitled to a life of privilege. But by the late 1960s, he had become outraged by the injustices of the Cultural Revolution, Mao’s blood-soaked purge, and was determined to register a formal complaint.
Ms. Xia was in despair; she knew what became of families who spoke out. “Why do you want to be a moth that throws itself into the fire?” she asked.
Mr. Chang’s career was over, and both he and his wife were subjected to physical abuse and imprisoned. Ms. Xia’s position was lower profile; she was in charge of resolving personal problems, such as housing, transfers and pensions, for people in her district. But that did not save her from brutal treatment.
Ms. Xia was made to kneel on broken glass; paraded through the streets of Chengdu wearing a dunce’s cap and a heavy placard with her name crossed out; and forced to bow to jeering crowds.
Still, she resisted pressure from the party to denounce her husband. And unlike many other women in her position, she refused to divorce him.
Twice she journeyed to Beijing to seek his release, the second time securing a meeting with the prime minister, Zhou Enlai, who was considered a moderate. Ms. Xia was “one of the very few spouses of victims who had the courage to go and appeal in Peking,” her daughter wrote in “Wild Swans.”
But Ms. Xia and her husband never criticized the Cultural Revolution in front of their children, checked by the party’s absolute power and the fear it inspired.
“My parents never said anything to me or my siblings,” Ms. Chang wrote. “The restraints which had kept them silent about politics before still prevented them from opening their minds to us.”
She was held at Xichiang prison camp from 1969 to 1971 as a “class enemy,” made to do heavy labor and endure denunciation meetings.
The camp, though less harsh than her husband’s, was a bitter experience. “She reflected with remorse on the pointlessness of her devotion,” her daughter wrote. “She found she missed her children with a pain which was almost unbearable.”
Xia De-hong was born on May 4, 1931, in Yixian, the daughter of Yang Yu-fang and Gen. Xue Zhi-heng, the inspector general of the metropolitan police in the nationalist government.
When she was an infant, her mother fled the house of the general, who was dying, and returned to her parents, eventually marrying a rich Manchurian doctor, Xia Rui-tang.
Ms. Xia grew up in Jinzhou, Manchuria, where she attended school before joining the Communist underground.
In the 1950s, when she began to have doubts about the Communist Party, she considered abandoning it and pursuing her dream of studying medicine, her daughter said. But the idea terrified her husband, Ms. Chang said in an interview, because it would have meant disavowing the Communists.
By the late 1950s, during the Mao-induced Great Famine that killed tens of millions, both of her parents had become “totally disillusioned,” Ms. Chang said, and “could no longer find excuses to forgive their party.”
Mr. Chang died in 1975, broken by years of imprisonment and ill treatment. Ms. Xia retired from her government service, as deputy head of the People’s Congress of the Eastern District of Chengdu, in 1983.
Besides Ms. Chang, Ms. Xia is survived by another daughter, Xiao-hong Chang; three sons, Jin-ming, Xiao-hei and Xiao-fang; and two grandchildren.
Jung Chang saw her mother for the last time in 2018. Ms. Chang’s criticism of the regime, in her memoir and a subsequent biography, made returning to China unthinkable. She told the BBC in a recent interview that she never knew whether her mother had read “Wild Swans.”
But the advice her mother gave her and her brother Xiao-hei, a journalist who also lives in London, was firm: “She only wanted us to write truthfully, and accurately.”
Culture
Why Is Everyone Obsessed With Bogs?
In prehistoric northern Europe, peatlands — areas of waterlogged soil rich with decaying plant matter — were considered spiritual sites. Since then, swords, jewelry and even human bodies have been found fossilized in their sludgy depths. More recently, however, many of these bogs have been depleted by overharvesting, neglect and development. But as awareness of their important role in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere grows, more wetlands are being restored, while also serving as unlikely creative inspiration. Here’s how bogs are showing up in the culture.
Fashion
At fall 2026 Paris Fashion Week, several houses — including Louis Vuitton (above left) and Hermès — staged shows amid mossy sets featuring spongy green structures and mounds of vegetation. And the Danish fashion brand Solitude Studios is distressing its eerie, grungy looks (above right) by submerging them in a local peat bog.
Contemporary Art
For her exhibition at California’s San José Museum of Art, on view through October, the Chalon Nation artist Christine Howard Sandoval is presenting sculptures, drawings and plant-dyed works (above) exploring how the state’s wetlands were once sites of Indigenous resistance and community. This month, at Storm King Art Center in New York’s Hudson Valley, the conceptual artist Anicka Yi will unveil an outdoor installation featuring six-foot-tall transparent columns holding algae-rich ecosystems cultivated from nearby pond water and soil.
Architecture and Design
The Bog Bothy (above), a mobile design project by the Dublin-based architecture practice 12th Field in collaboration with the Irish Architecture Foundation, was inspired by the makeshift huts once used by peat cutters who harvested the material for fuel. After debuting in the Irish Midlands last year, it’ll tour the region again this summer. In Edinburgh, the designer Oisín Gallagher is making doorstops from subfossilized bog-oak scraps carbon-dated to 3300 B.C.
Fine Dining
At La Grenouillère on France’s north coast, the chef Alexandre Gauthier reflects the restaurant’s reedy, frog-filled river valley landscape with dishes like a “marsh bubble” of herbs encased in hardened sugar. This spring, Aponiente — the chef Ángel León’s restaurant inside a 19th-century tidal mill on Spain’s Bay of Cádiz — added an outdoor dining area on a pier above the neighboring marshland, serving local sea grasses and salt marsh flowers alongside seafood (above) from the estuary.
Literature
The Irish British writer Maggie O’Farrell’s forthcoming novel, “Land,” about an Irish cartographer and his son surveying the island in 1865 after the Great Famine, depicts haunting encounters with the verdant landscape, including its plentiful oozing bogs.
Culture
Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas
SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay, by Mary Lisa Gavenas
Mary Kay, the cosmetics company whose multilevel marketing included sales parties and whose biggest earners were awarded pink Cadillacs, was really in the business of selling second chances. Or, at least, that’s what Mary Lisa Gavenas argues in “Selling Opportunity,” a dual biography of the brand and the woman behind it.
Mary Kathlyn Wagner, who would become Mary Kay Ash, “the most famous saleswoman in the world” and “maybe the most famous ever,” in Gavenas’s extravagant words, was born in 1918 to a poor family and raised mostly in Houston. Although a good student, she eloped at 16 with a slightly older boy. The young couple had two babies in quick succession.
Mary Kay’s creation was a combination of timing and good luck. Door-to-door sales was a thriving industry — but, traditionally, a man’s world: Lugging heavy samples was not considered feminine, and entering the homes of strangers, unsafe. But things began to change during the Great Depression, Gavenas suggests, thanks to a convergence of factors — financial pressures and the rise of the aspirational prosperity gospel espoused by Dale Carnegie’s self-help manuals.
At the same time, female-run beauty lines like Annie Turnbo Malone’s Poro and Madam C.J. Walker’s were finding great success in Black communities. And, coincidentally or otherwise, the California Perfume Company changed its name to Avon Products in 1939.
Ash began by selling books door to door, moving on to Stanley Home Products in the 1940s. She was talented, but direct sales was a rough gig. Every party to show off wares was supposed to beget two more bookings; these led to sales that resulted in new recruits. But there was no real security or stability: no salary, no medical benefits, no vacations. “Stop selling and you would end up right back where you started. Or worse,” the author writes.
Gavenas, a onetime beauty editor who wrote “Color Stories,” takes her time unspooling Mary Kay’s tale, with a great deal of evident research. We learn about direct sales, women’s rights and Texas history.
But, be warned: Readers must really enjoy both this woman and this world to take pleasure in “Selling Opportunity.” Mary Kay the person keeps marrying, getting divorced or widowed and working her way through various sales jobs (it’s hard to keep track of the myriad companies and last names). Gavenas seems to leave no detail out. Thus, the 1963 founding of the eponymous beauty company doesn’t come until almost 200 pages in.
Beauty by Mary Kay included a Cleansing Cream, a Magic Masque and a Nite Cream (which containined ammoniated mercury, later banned by the F.D.A.). The full line of products — which was how Mary Kay strongly encouraged customers to buy them — ran to a steep $175 in today’s money. (To fail to acquire the whole set, Ash said, was “like giving you my recipe for chocolate cake but leaving out an important ingredient.”)
Potential clients attended gatherings at acquaintances’ homes — no undignified doorbell-ringing here — where they received a mini facial, then an application of cosmetics like foundation, lip color and cream rouge — and a wig. The company made $198,514 in sales its first year.
Although Ash may have seemed a pioneer, in many ways Mary Kay was a traditionalist company, whose philosophy was “God first, family second, career third.” Saleswomen, official literature dictated, were working to provide themselves with treats rather than necessities so as not to threaten their breadwinner husbands.
And yet, they were also encouraged to sell sell sell. Golden Goblet pendants were awarded for major orders. After the company started using custom pink Peterbilt trucks for shipping, it began commissioning those Cadillacs for top consultants. (Mary Kay preferred gifts to cash bonuses, lest women save the money to spend on practical things rather than the licensed frivolities.) The Cadillacs, always driven on company leases, would become industry legend and part of American pop culture lore. “Never to be run-down, repainted or resold, the cars would double as shining pink advertisements for her selling opportunity,” Gavenas writes.
The woman herself was iconic, too. While Ash was a product of the Depression, she was also undeniably over-the-top. She wore white suits with leopard trim, lived in a custom Frank L. Meier house and brought her poodle to the office.
Mary Kay went public in 1968, making her the first woman to chair a company on the New York Stock Exchange. By the 1990s, the Mary Kay headquarters near Dallas was almost 600,000 square feet. They commissioned a hagiographic company biopic; there was a Mary Kay consultant Barbie; they were making $1 billion in wholesale. When she died, in 2001, Ash was worth $98 million.
And yet, Gavenas cites that at the company’s height, in 1992, sales reps made on average just $2,400 per year.
Instead of so much time in the pink fantasia of Mary Kay, it would have been nice for a few detours showing how infrequently the opportunities the company sold were truly realized.
SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay | By Mary Lisa Gavenas | Viking | 435 pp. | $35
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