Culture
Putting the NFC North’s dominance in context: Best division since realignment?
The NFL’s Thanksgiving schedule delivers three-fourths of what could become the most dominant division since the league realigned in 2002.
The 2024 NFC North is the first division since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to feature three teams with at least eight victories through Week 12, led by the 10-1 Detroit Lions, who have tied an all-time NFL mark for most victories in a season by at least 38 points (three, all outside the division).
With the Lions facing the division-rival Chicago Bears (4-7) in the early game Thursday before the 8-3 Green Bay Packers play the late game against the AFC East’s Miami Dolphins, the 2024 NFC North — which also includes the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings — stands apart. It could well decide who takes home the Lombardi Trophy.
The Lions (+260), Packers (+750) and Vikings (+850) are among the top seven in Super Bowl odds, per BetMGM, and the top four in odds to win the NFC, along with the Philadelphia Eagles (+325). The Lions remain Super Bowl favorites, comfortably ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (+450), while the NFC North has the shortest odds to produce the champion at +175, half of the second-place AFC West (+350).
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The chart below shows where all eight divisions have ranked each season since the league realigned in 2002 in point margin per game (X-axis) and win rate (Y-axis) in non-divisional games through the first 12 weeks of each season. The 2024 NFC North (red dot) ranks first among these 184 divisional seasons in average point margin (+9.5) and second in win rate (.765), per TruMedia.
Only the 2022 NFC East (26-7) had a better record than the 2024 NFC North (26-8) in non-division games through Week 12, but the current NFC North had a far better average point margin (+9.5 to +5.1) in these games.
Here’s what you need to know about where the NFC North stands and what it must do to become the most dominant division over a full season since realignment.
1. The NFC North is by far the most dominant division this season.
The scheduling rotation (which we’ll explore later) is part of the equation, but this level of dominance is extreme.
2024 non-divisional game scorecard
| Division | W-L | Point Margin |
|---|---|---|
|
NFC North |
26-8 (.765) |
+323 |
|
AFC West |
19-12 (.613) |
+74 |
|
AFC North |
17-16 (.515) |
+56 |
|
NFC West |
15-15 (.500) |
-33 |
|
NFC East |
15-16 (.484) |
-33 |
|
AFC East |
13-18 (.419) |
-38 |
|
NFC South |
10-18 (.357) |
-138 |
|
AFC South |
11-23 (.324) |
-211 |
AFC North teams lead the way in total victories over opponents who currently have winning records (11) and total non-divisional victories in these games (nine). The NFC North is second with eight and six.
Since 2002, the NFC North’s +323 point margin ranks first by 64 points over the runner-up 2013 NFC West (+259) through Week 12. That is larger than the difference between the 2013 NFC West and the sixth-ranked division in that span, the 2011 NFC North (+200). The table below shows the only divisions since 2002 with PPG margins greater than 7.0 through Week 12, led by the 2024 NFC North.
2002-24 non-division PPG margin (Wk 1-12)
| Division | W-L | PPG Margin |
|---|---|---|
|
2024 NFC North |
26-8 (.765) |
+9.5 |
|
2013 NFC West |
23-9 (.719) |
+8.1 |
|
2002 NFC South |
17-8-1 (.673) |
+7.3 |
|
2008 NFC South |
22-8 (.733) |
+7.2 |
|
2011 NFC North |
19-9 (.679) |
+7.1 |
|
2005 AFC West |
20-10 (.667) |
+7.1 |
2. Strong defense has been the key to the NFC North dominating its non-divisional schedule.
The 2024 NFC North ranks first among 184 divisions since 2002 in defensive EPA per play against non-division opponents, compared to a No. 69 ranking in offensive EPA per play.
| Non-Division Category | 2024 NFC North | Rank of 184 |
|---|---|---|
|
W-L |
26-8 (.765) |
2 |
|
PPG |
26.1 |
16 |
|
PPG allowed |
16.6 |
2 |
|
PPG differential |
+9.5 |
1 |
|
Score differential/play |
+4.86 |
1 |
|
OFF EPA/play |
+0.013 |
69 |
|
DEF EPA/play |
+0.148 |
1 |
All four NFC North teams rank among the NFL’s top 10 in defensive EPA per play across all games this season. They are all in the top five when isolating non-divisional games only. The Lions and Packers also rank among the top 10 on offense across all games and in non-division games.
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3. Dominating a weak AFC South accounts for 61 percent of the NFC North’s +323 point differential in non-division games.
NFC North teams are 8-0 with a +144 differential against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. They are 14-2 with a +197 differential against the full AFC South. Bad teams get blown out. The NFC North has played its share of them.
2024 NFC North non-division scorecard
Forty-five percent of the +323 differential in non-division games stems from facing the Jaguars and Titans, while 61 percent stems from facing the AFC South overall.
The six other divisions are a combined 9-9 against the AFC South, with a +14 differential. That includes a 6-7 mark with a +21 differential for AFC East teams.
4. The NFC North has a 6-4 record against non-divisional opponents who had winning records through Week 12. Here’s a full accounting.
The Bears are the only NFC North team without a victory over a team that currently has a winning record. They are 0-3 in those matchups, headlined by their defeat at Washington on a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary. The rest of the NFC North has a 6-1 record in those games, with three victories over Houston, two over Arizona and one over Seattle.
2024 NFC North vs. teams now above .500
| NFC North Team | Wk-Opp | Result | Point Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
|
3-HOU |
W, 34-7 |
+27 |
|
|
6-AZ |
W, 34-13 |
+21 |
|
|
4-SEA |
W, 42-29 |
+13 |
|
|
3-AZ |
W, 20-13 |
+7 |
|
|
10-HOU |
W, 26-23 |
+3 |
|
|
7-HOU |
W, 24-22 |
+2 |
|
|
8-WAS |
L, 18-15 |
-3 |
|
|
1-PHI |
L, 34-29 |
-5 |
|
|
2-HOU |
L, 19-13 |
-6 |
|
|
9-AZ |
L, 29-9 |
-20 |
The NFC North’s record would be 6-3 if we adjusted the parameters to feature non-divisional games against teams that had winning records at kickoff. Victories over Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa Bay would come into play.
5. NFC North teams play 10 more games against non-division opponents this season. Here’s what the division must do to become the most dominant since 2002.
The NFL pushes most division games later in the season for competitive reasons. That leaves only 10 remaining non-division games for the NFC North to build upon its dominance or fall in the rankings. Those games are listed below chronologically and with point spreads pulled together from various sources where available.
Remaining non-division opponents
| NFC North Team | Week | Point Spread |
|---|---|---|
|
13 |
-3.5 (vs. AZ) |
|
|
13 |
-3 (vs. MIA) |
|
|
14 |
+6.5 (at SF) |
|
|
14 |
-5.5 (vs. ATL) |
|
|
15 |
-2 (vs. BUF) |
|
|
15 |
-1 (at SEA) |
|
|
16 |
+2 (at SEA) |
|
|
16 |
-5 (vs. NO) |
|
|
17 |
+3.5 (at SEA) |
|
|
17 |
-5 (at SF) |
The 2013 NFC North holds the full-season record for PPG margin against non-divisional opponents since realignment (+359 in 40 games, for 8.975 per game). That division featured the 13-3 Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers (12-4), the Bruce Arians-coached Cardinals (10-6) and the 7-9 Rams.
NFC North teams must outscore their 10 remaining non-divisional opponents by 72 points to beat the 2013 NFC West for the best full-season differential since 2002. That would leave the division +395 in 44 games for a +8.977 PPG differential.
The best full-season record against non-divisional opponents since 2002 is shared by the 2013 NFC West and the 2007 NFC South at 30-10 (.750). The NFC North (currently .765 at 26-8) would equal that mark with a 7-3 finish against foes outside the division.
The best team in the NFC North (Detroit) will be at home for the division’s toughest remaining opponent (Buffalo). The Seahawks’ recent improvement on defense could complicate efforts for Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay to win at Seattle. The 49ers’ decline could help Chicago (Week 14) and Detroit (Week 17).
Green Bay and Minnesota can set the tone in Week 13. Both are favored at home against non-division opponents.
(Photo of Josh Jacobs, center, and three Lions defenders: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
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Welcome to Great Adaptations, the Book Review’s regular multiple-choice quiz about works that have gone on to find new life as movies, television shows, theatrical productions — or even books. With the Academy Award nominations announced last week, this week’s challenge celebrates past Oscar-winning films that were based on books. Just tap or click your answers to the five questions below. And scroll down after you finish the last question for links to the books and their filmed versions.
Not every poem about love is a love poem. This one, from William Blake’s “Songs of Innocence and of Experience,” first published in 1794, is more analytical than romantic. Instead of roses and violets, it offers us dirt and rocks.
William Blake (1757-1827), obscure in his own time and a hero to later generations of poets and spiritual seekers, made his living as an engraver and illustrator. He conceived and executed many of his poetic projects as works of visual as well as literary art, etching his verses and images onto copper plates and printing them in vivid color — a style designed to blur the boundary between word and picture.
“The Clod & the Pebble” is set in a rustic tableau populated by wild and domesticated animals. In the print, we can’t quite see the main characters, who are presumably somewhere beneath the hooves and the ripples. But the cows and sheep, the frogs and the duck, are nonetheless connected to the poem’s meaning.
The two sections of “Songs of Innocence and of Experience” are meant to illustrate “the contrary states of the human soul” — the purity and wonder associated with early childhood and the harder knowledge that inevitably follows.
“The Clod & the Pebble” recapitulates this fall from sweetness into disillusionment, and the plate suggests it in contrasting ways. The wild animals down below symbolize a natural condition of innocence, while the livestock above live in confinement, bound to another’s use. At the same time, though, the cows and sheep are peaceful ruminants, while the frogs and the duck are predators.
In the poem, the Clod is an avatar of innocence. As it happens, this is a recurring character in the Blakean poetic universe. In “The Book of Thel,” a fantastical meditation composed a few years before the publication of “Songs of Innocence and of Experience,” the Clod appears as a maternal figure selflessly nursing a baby worm:
The Clod of Clay heard the Worms voice, & raisd her pitying head;
She bow’d over the weeping infant, and her life exhal’d
In milky fondness
“We live not for ourselves,” she tells the poem’s heroine, a young girl named Thel. But in Blake’s system self-sacrifice can never be the last word. There is no innocence without the fall into experience, and no experience without the memory of innocence. Giving gives way to wanting.
Question 1/6
Love seeketh not Itself to please,
Nor for itself hath any care;
Tap a word above to fill in the highlighted blank.
Want to learn this poem by heart? We’ll help.
Get to know the poem better by filling in the missing words below.
First, the Clod’s perspective.
Welcome to Lit Trivia, the Book Review’s regular quiz about books, authors and literary culture. This week’s challenge tests your memory of 21st-century books that were inspired by ancient myths, legends and folk tales. In the five multiple-choice questions below, tap or click on the answer you think is correct. After the last question, you’ll find links to the books if you’d like to do further reading.
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