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If Giants don’t land Aaron Rodgers, then what? Exploring pros, cons of NY’s backup plans

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If Giants don’t land Aaron Rodgers, then what? Exploring pros, cons of NY’s backup plans

One eternity later …

Cue the SpongeBob SquarePants meme as the football world awaits a resolution to the Aaron Rodgers saga. (It’s been long enough that we can call it that, right?) The 41-year-old, four-time MVP is biding his time as he waits to see if the Minnesota Vikings would like to pursue a partnership. If they don’t, Rodgers could simply retire and leave the QB-desperate Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants with few inspiring options left to choose from.

But, it seems as long as they’re still in play for Rodgers, the Giants and Steelers are (somewhat) content to wait. Three teams all tied together with no real deadline in sight. Fun, right?

However, the Giants, with Tommy DeVito the only QB on the roster, haven’t been waiting idly. They’ve been doing their homework on what Plan C — swing-and-a-miss on Matthew Stafford, swing-and-a-miss on Rodgers — would look like should the ex-Jets QB not desire a return to New York.

To recap their work so far: The Giants have hosted veterans Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for visits. They also were reportedly conducted a video call with Mason Rudolph, but the backup QB wound up signing with the Steelers.

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The Giants, of course, are wise to explore veteran contingency plans with no end in sight to the Rodgers saga and the possibility that he could simply walk away from the game rather than suit up for any team in 2025.

So, what exactly do those contingency plans look like? That’s what we’re here to find out as we dive into the pros and cons of each of the Giants’ less-preferred options:

Russell Wilson, 36 years old

Pros

After Rodgers, Wilson is probably the best remaining option on the free-agent market and the only other QB the Giants could realistically sell as a functional full-time starter for 2025.

Wilson is a Super Bowl champion and proven winner, having guided the Seattle Seahawks to the playoffs eight times and the Steelers to the playoffs last season. He threw for 2,482 yards and 16 touchdowns in 11 appearances last year. Wilson’s five interceptions matched his career low in Seattle in 2019 (of course, that came in 16 games), but his interception rate (1.5 percent) was among the lowest rates in the NFL last year. Wilson also tallied just five fumbles, so he does a good job of protecting the football.

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Wilson also still throws a gorgeous deep ball, meaning he could help add an explosive element to New York’s offense, which desperately needs to produce more big plays. With the Steelers, 14.4 percent of Wilson’s pass attempts resulted in explosive plays (16-plus yards), per TruMedia, a mark that ranked 14th in the NFL and was worlds better than what the Giants got from Daniel Jones (8.9 percent, last in the NFL) last season.

More big plays is what the Giants hope to coax out of Malik Nabers in Year 2, and it aligns well with the recently re-signed Darius Slayton’s skill set. Perhaps even the speedy Jalin Hyatt, who has done little through two years in New York, could benefit from playing with Wilson.

Before moving onto Wilson’s cons, I wanted to briefly highlight the pickle the Giants would be in if they don’t sign Rodgers or Wilson.

If they don’t end up with one of those two … yikes. The nightmare scenario is losing out on both of those quarterbacks while the Tennessee Titans prepare to take Miami quarterback Cam Ward at No. 1 in the upcoming NFL Draft — and that looks like what they’re doing, since they haven’t been significant players in the veteran QB market this offseason outside of signing backup Brandon Allen to a one-year deal. The Giants would likely be forced to draft a QB at No. 3, and if Ward isn’t there, whomever they take could be classified as a significant reach — especially if they’re passing on Penn State pass rusher Abdul Carter or Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter.

With Wilson (or Rodgers), the Giants should still plan to draft a QB at some point early on, but there would be less desperation to make a pick with a veteran capable of starting Week 1.

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OK, onto the cons:

Cons

While Wilson took the Steelers to the playoffs, the team finished on a five-game losing streak, including a relatively non-competitive 28-14 loss to the Ravens in the wild-card round. That’s hardly encouraging. While Wilson protects the ball in terms of limiting turnovers, he also holds onto the ball for way too long and takes a lot of sacks.

Wilson’s sack percentage over the past three seasons is a dreadful 9.5 percent. Among quarterbacks with at least 1,000 dropbacks in that span, that’s the third-worst rate behind only Justin Fields (11.9 percent) and … Jones (9.6 percent).

The Steelers also haven’t made a strong push to bring Wilson back as they pursue Rodgers and initially prioritized re-signing Fields before he signed with the Jets. That doesn’t seem like a great sign.

It’s also worth mentioning that Wilson has been in the Giants building twice the past two offseasons, and no deal has been made. Last year, the Giants told him Jones would be the starter, so he went to Pittsburgh. This time, the Giants are waiting on Rodgers, but it’s pretty clear they’re not exactly enamored with Wilson.

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Jameis Winston, 31 years old

Pros

It won’t be boring.

Just look at Winston’s Super Bowl highlight reel from New Orleans as a Fox Sports correspondent. Winston would bring a fun personality to New York, and his play on the field certainly wouldn’t be dull either. He’s a human highlight reel — you just never know if it’s going to be an offensive or defensive highlight.

The last time Winston, the No. 1 overall pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2015, started 16 or more games, he became one of nine quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards. Those yards came with 33 touchdowns. (OK, I know we’re in the “pros” section, but I feel obligated to mention those 33 TDs also came with a breathtaking 30 interceptions, as the Bucs went 7-9 and missed the playoffs.)

After leaving Tampa, Winston spent four seasons in New Orleans before playing 2024 in Cleveland. With the Browns, Winston started seven games — his most since 2021 — and threw for 2,121 yards and 13 touchdowns. (Again, I must mention that he also threw 12 interceptions and went 2-5 as a starter.)

Winston, like Wilson, will happily heave it downfield. His rate of explosive pass plays (13.8 percent) was in line with Wilson and slightly ahead of the next guy on this list (Flacco, 13.5 percent). So, again, the Giants would be injecting some big-play ability into their offense.

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Winston is also the youngest of these visitors, which has to count for something when thinking about the future. Could he enjoy a late-career breakout? Probably not, but you never know. The last item in Winston’s favor is the price tag. He likely won’t cost nearly as much as Rodgers or even Wilson. Winston’s deal with Cleveland last season was worth a maximum of $8.7 million.

Cons

It wouldn’t be boring.

So, yeah, about those interceptions. Before 2019, no QB had thrown 30 interceptions in one season in more than 30 years (Vinny Testaverde threw 35 with the Bucs in 1988), and no QB has come close since.

With 111 career interceptions in 105 games, Winston has a career INT rate of 3.5 percent, including a 4.1 percent mark last year, which was second-worst in the league in 2024 behind only the Colts’ Anthony Richardson. Winston also was sacked 24 times in 12 games, so his negative plays rate is off the charts. If Giants coach Brian Daboll was throwing tablets out of frustration with Jones, Winston might just break Daboll’s brain.

Finally, if the Giants are trying to trade up for a QB — either up to No. 1 or perhaps back into the end of Round 1 — rivals teams might be able to exploit their desperation, as they’ll know the Giants aren’t committed to Winston and are still hunting for a long-term answer at QB.

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Joe Flacco, 40 years old

Pros

This isn’t going to be a long list, but what were you expecting for a 40-year-old QB about to play for his sixth career team?

At the least, Daboll could trust Flacco to pick up his offense quickly and steer the ship as a veteran with 17 seasons of NFL experience. A former Super Bowl MVP, Flacco can still chuck it deep and looks to create big plays where he can. He also completed 65.3 percent of his passes last season, so he’s still pretty accurate.

Overall, he’s capable of brief spurts of quality play. He helped lead the Browns to the playoffs in 2023 with a solid five-game stretch that resulted in him winning the 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. Last season in Indy, he played well for a few weeks early on while filling in for an injured Richardson.

Finally, he shouldn’t be too pricey. With the Colts last season, Flacco signed a one-year deal worth up to $8.7 million with just $4.5 million guaranteed.

Cons

Father Time hasn’t been friendly to Flacco. He was never very mobile, but he doesn’t move much at all now, so if the Giants offensive line isn’t playing up to par — when has that ever happened, though? — good luck.

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He also didn’t look great toward the end of the last season. When the Colts benched Richardson ahead of Week 9 and gave the job to Flacco, coach Shane Steichen said Flacco was the starter “going forward.” That lasted two weeks. He played so poorly in his two games as Indy’s starter — two losses that included a prime-time flop against Minnesota and three interceptions against Buffalo — that the Colts reversed course and turned back to Richardson.

Giants fans are also well acquainted with Flacco’s late-season struggles. He returned to the lineup, replacing an injured Richardson in Week 17, for a Colts team playing for its playoff life. Flacco and the Colts fell to a Giants team on a 10-game losing streak. Flacco turned the ball over three times in Indy’s 45-33 loss.

It’s pretty clear at this point Flacco is best-suited for a backup role.

And as with Winston, teams could exploit the Giants’ desperation to trade up during the draft knowing Flacco isn’t a long-term answer. It’s also worth mentioning that if the Giants do get a young QB in the building, Flacco doesn’t have the reputation as the type of QB to go out of his way to be a mentor.

Conclusion

None of these are great options for the Giants. They know it, too. That’s why they’re waiting on Rodgers, though it isn’t exactly clear how much better he’d actually be. Alas, the wait goes on.

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(Photo of Russell Wilson: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)

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Breslow’s Red Sox front-office audit resulted in painful cuts. Will the changes bring wins?

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Breslow’s Red Sox front-office audit resulted in painful cuts. Will the changes bring wins?

In the 17 months since the Boston Red Sox hired Craig Breslow as chief baseball officer — their fourth leadership change within the past 10 seasons — the organization has undergone sweeping changes, particularly behind the scenes in the front office. Under Breslow’s direction, longtime employees have been fired, while others have left on their own, frustrated with the direction of the organization. The scouting department, in particular, has seen deep cuts.

Many that remain in the roughly 275-person front office paint a previously unreported picture of uncertainty and unease, though others see opportunity and optimism, particularly in the rapid revamping of the organization’s pitching infrastructure and player development methods, and in a promising big-league team. Some indicate it’s created an odd juxtaposition between those eager to initiate change and those trying to adapt to new roles under new leadership.

Breslow does not apologize for changes he believes will finally snap the organization out of a years-long stretch of mediocrity. He was hired for this purpose. The team has made the postseason once since their last World Series title in 2018 and has posted a record at or below .500 in four of the past five seasons. Red Sox ticket prices remain among the highest in baseball.

Breslow recently spoke to The Athletic about the restructuring that resulted from an internal audit conducted last year that helped reshape the front office, noting that they “tried to pick off the highest leveraged opportunities first.”

“There are times where maybe it makes sense to bulldoze through things and then kind of pick up the pieces afterward and there are times where being a little bit more intentional and patient ends in the best outcome,” he said, standing outside of Boston’s spring training complex at JetBlue Park. “I think ultimately, what we’ve been trying to instill is the idea that what is most important is what happens on the field, and we need to work backwards from that.”

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Change is not new in Boston. Far from it. Just two years ago under Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox underwent a different front-office overhaul. But Bloom wasn’t around long enough to see those changes make an impact.

So, how will Breslow’s restructuring be different? After so many years of upgrading and updating the front office structure under previous leadership, is this new setup the right one? Will ownership give Breslow enough runway to see the changes through or — given that his predecessors were each fired within their first five years on the job — is he already nearing the halfway mark of his tenure in Boston?

Sources within the team acknowledge that baseball’s increasingly competitive landscape necessitated swift change. Yet too much change can create instability.

Breslow is clear that he believes it’s important to be transparent and he is mindful of the organization’s culture and staff morale. But he also has a strong vision of how the Red Sox can improve.

“Our goal is not to make everyone happy,” he said.

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Craig Breslow was introduced as the Red Sox chief baseball officer on Nov. 2, 2023. (Charles Krupa / Associated Press)

Within a few months of joining the Red Sox, Breslow hired New York City-based Sportsology Group to conduct an internal audit of all baseball operations employees.

One goal was to get all of the front-office departments on the same page so that they could collaborate and communicate more effectively, ultimately benefitting the major-league team. The audit also laid out an objective evaluation method for Breslow to utilize when identifying employees who would best fit his vision for the franchise.

“The one thing I’m committed to, is doing what’s best for the organization and that requires taking a hard look at the processes that we have in place, the systems we have in place, and the people that we have in place,” Breslow told The Athletic in June amid the audit.

“Sportsology is not the decision-making group. They are not evaluating people, we are evaluating people,” he added. “They’re helping us create the frameworks that allow us to do that and certain benchmarks against which we want to evaluate and how to calibrate the information that’s coming in. But the evaluations are being done by us.”

During the audit, there was a natural undercurrent of anxiety within the organization about just what the evaluations would suggest, according to multiple employees who spoke on a condition of anonymity. After the audit was completed, there were widespread changes, not just in scouting, where people with decades of experience were let go, but in creating new department heads in research and development, and reorganizing player development and the medical department.

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“The result of an audit was not some drastic kind of headcount-cutting measure,” Breslow said. “It was understanding who our people are, what type of work they’re doing, what we’re really good at, what opportunities there are to improve.”

The scouting department had the biggest turnover — and those departures created the most angst. On the amateur side, a 34-person staff last year was reduced to 22 following departures and layoffs. Four people were added in their place, increasing the amateur staff to 26. Among the most notable layoffs were longtime scouts Mark Wasinger, Paul Fryer and Willie Romay, a group with decades of collective scouting experience. Tom Kotchman, a scout for nearly 50 years, including 14 with the Red Sox, retired at the end of 2024.

Changes in the scouting world have become ubiquitous over the past decade with the evolving landscape of how the game is evaluated, particularly as advances in technology enhance — and at the same time challenge — traditional scouting methods. Breslow admitted emerging research methods have allowed teams to collect information differently and often more objectively.

“But it has not eliminated the value in the role of the scout,” he said. “I think in certain cases, we’re asking our scouts to take on slightly different responsibilities in order to ensure that we are continually positioned at the industry’s leading edge. But it isn’t that scouts are less important. It isn’t that we’re looking to diminish the voice or the role of the scout. It’s that the job of the scout has changed, and we have to provide the support for people to make sure that they’re going to do their jobs every day.”

All of the scouts who were let go had significant impacts on the club, but Romay, in particular, was directly responsible for uniting the Red Sox with key pieces of the current clubhouse, signing Triston Casas, Kutter Crawford and Roman Anthony. One employee noted that Romay being part of the cuts in the fall was “incredibly disheartening for everyone.”

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“Like anything, like friends that get traded, like anyone that gets released, you never want to see that happen to someone and it’s sad,” said Anthony, whose relationship with Romay was a key reason he didn’t forgo signing with the Red Sox to play at Mississippi. “I still stay in contact with him. He still texts me and still roots for me. I understand it’s a business, and I understand that teams have to do whatever they think is right. And people may not always agree with that.”

Mike Rikard, who’d previously served as amateur scouting director and most recently as vice president of scouting, was moved to a special assistant role last fall before he left the organization in January to join the Arizona Diamondbacks as senior advisor in the scouting department. The Diamondbacks have several former Red Sox employees in their front office, including GM Mike Hazen. Rikard led the team’s drafts from 2015-19 when they selected Andrew Benintendi, Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran, Casas and Crawford. He later transitioned to VP of scouting where he helped in the evaluations of Mayer, Anthony, Campbell and Kyle Teel.

On the international side, 12 scouts were let go or reassigned to different departments with eight additions, shifting the 40-person group to 36.

Assistant general manager Eddie Romero, who had focused on the club’s international scouting and player development efforts, remained an assistant GM but with a role more centered on the big-league club in acquisitions and player development. Over the past 20 years, Romero has helped revitalize the organization’s Dominican Academy and led efforts in signing and developing players such as Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela.


A batting cage at the Red Sox Dominican Academy. (Jen McCaffrey / The Athletic)

On the professional scouting side, five pro scouts on an 18-person staff were fired and their spots were filled with a mix of external and internal moves, including shifting international amateur scouts Kento Matsumoto and Won-Sang Lee, based in Japan and South Korea, respectively, to the pro side.

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Several inquiries about these changes were left unanswered and those who did discuss changes asked not to be identified or quoted, citing ongoing questions about their job security. Some scouts who were fired have said they’re happy with their new teams and didn’t want to discuss the matter.

The industry has taken notice of the changes to the Red Sox scouting department. In a recent Baseball America poll of more than two dozen scouts, the Red Sox ranked among the least “scout-friendly” teams.

Breslow wouldn’t address specific departures, but defended what he deemed difficult decisions in order to keep the organization at the forefront of the game, noting “that there are a number of people who have contributed to the success of this organization, and that will not change.”

“We have to evaluate where we currently are and where we think this game is headed,” he said. “In some cases, that means the set of responsibilities that our scouts take on has changed and in certain situations it hasn’t at all. We need to find the best people and put them in the right places.

“Fortunately, and in a lot of ways and as a result of a pretty comprehensive audit, we found that we do have a lot of great people here. And there are maybe people who decide that the direction that we’re going is not for them, and that’s OK. But again, all of this is rooted in trying to put the best team we possibly can on the field and give ourselves the best chance of making great decisions.”

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Boston is not the only team reorganizing their scouting structure. The Chicago Cubs, a team for which Breslow previously worked, is in the midst of its own front-office changes. As teams shift more toward Driveline-type methods, others have gone a different direction. The Philadelphia Phillies scaled back “Driveline-ification” efforts of their front office in recent years. In 2022, the Red Sox hired former Phillies director of minor-league hitting Jason Ochart.

At the same time the Red Sox have cut from the scouting department, they have added to others, including research and development, which is now the second-largest department in the front office, behind only international scouting. The R&D department was reorganized under four directors — baseball sciences, baseball systems, baseball technology and baseball analytics. Early in the offseason, Breslow hired Taylor Smith, former director of predictive modeling for the Tampa Bay Rays, as an assistant general manager tasked with overseeing R&D. Mike Groopman, an assistant GM who’d previously overseen R&D, moved to a role focused on acquisitions. The new structure created a heavy emphasis on data-driven analysis and sought to streamline a growing department that had increased to 33 people, up from 30 last year.

Although R&D grew, there were departures, including Joe McDonald, a former director of analytics, who joined the New England Patriots as senior analyst of football strategy. A few analysts were moved to scouting roles. In all, there were six additional hires, including one Breslow specifically highlighted at his end-of-season presser, former Driveline employee Kyle Wasserberger, a biomechanist with an extensive background in injury prevention and rehabilitation.

The Red Sox now employ nine former Driveline employees, the most of any team in baseball, including Driveline founder Kyle Boddy, who serves as a special assistant to Breslow. Breslow said there has not been a directive to hire Driveline employees but he values the way they approach the game.

“I think people who have gone to work at Driveline have taken on a specific set of experiences that typically lends itself to a way of thinking and a curiosity and open-mindedness,” he said. “Yeah it’s data-driven decision-making, but it’s understanding and having evidence and having support for decision-making rather than just blindly working through different possibilities of outcomes and solutions. It’s doing a lot of the work beforehand, before you take a suggestion or a recommendation to a player. It’s being grounded in evidence and information.”

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This analytical approach has paid dividends in many areas, particularly in developing several top position player prospects, including Anthony, Mayer and Campbell, who’ve excelled at the plate thanks to a revamped hitting philosophy implemented over the past few years on the minor-league side, a process that began under Ochart at the end of Bloom’s tenure.

It has also created tension with traditional coaching methods. The Boston Globe recently reported on a “heated conversation” Hall of Famer Jim Rice, a former hitting instructor who now serves as a special assignment instructor for the Red Sox, had with an unidentified staffer after a player approached Rice for hitting advice. Rice was told by the staffer his advice “didn’t align with the team’s approach.”

“There are little tips of the iceberg that have revealed themselves,” one employee noted about the culture of the organization.

Despite that rift and the obvious shift toward more data-driven methods, the Red Sox are not foregoing hands-on instruction. As they seek to strengthen ties between their farm system and their major-league team, another notable change was the addition of Chris Stasio, formerly the assistant farm director, who will work in a player development role on the major-league coaching staff.

Traditionally, the Red Sox player development group was solely involved in development in the minor leagues, but now, via Stasio’s new role, it will also focus on continued development at the big-league level. Stasio will be in uniform and travel with the major-league team. Stasio’s new position was part of a larger restructuring of player development that saw eight people fired and four moved to different positions, including former minor league hitting coordinator Dillon Lawson, who was promoted to big league assistant hitting coach.

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There have been changes in the medical department, too. Dr. Larry Ronan, who’s been the team’s lead physician for 20 years, stepped into an advisory role this season. Dr. Peter Asnis, who’d been the team’s head orthopedist for more than a decade, was elevated to head physician, leading a staff of multiple specialized doctors. On the field, strength coach Kiyoshi Momose moved to a Boston-based strength role, rather than traveling with the club, while two strength coaches were added to their staff of roughly a dozen trainers, rehab specialists, massage therapists and physical therapists.


The vast number of changes across the Red Sox organization has empowered some employees while leaving others feeling diminished in their roles. Some understood the cutthroat nature of working in a billion-dollar industry where the bottom line is what matters most. Others saw years of loyalty and hard work wiped clean.

The Red Sox have not won in recent years and that, in turn, means change. Once again.

Breslow and his leadership team acknowledge the painful moves but remain steadfast that in a competitive industry, this type of restructuring is par for the course and that the organization is re-evaluated after every season. This was, however, a larger and deeper reorganization.

“Without a doubt, we had to make really difficult decisions,” he said. “My hope is that whether people agree with those decisions or not, they understood that we were making the best decisions that we could in order to further this goal we have of competing for World Series championships year over year.

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“I don’t know that there’s a finish line,” he added. “We need to constantly evolve, track our progress, reevaluate. I think that’s what good organizations do.”

(Top photo: Charles Krupa / Associated Press)

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The 8 NFL free-agent signings with the best chance to outproduce their contracts

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The 8 NFL free-agent signings with the best chance to outproduce their contracts

The first wave of NFL free agency is winding down, and there are now plenty of deals to assess.

In the team free agency rankings we released ahead of the negotiation window earlier this month, we dove into the data from the previous four years, 2021 through 2024. We logged cash spent on each free agent during that span. We also logged the value produced — using Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric — by each player while he was on his free-agent contract. By comparing these two figures, we determined how much value each free agent produced per $1 million in cash spent, or AV per million. And, in turn, we ranked teams at large by how much value they were producing per $1 million cash spent on the free agent market.

Now we can use that data to try and project the best value deals from the early returns in this 2025 free agent class. From 2021 to 2024, the league average in AV per million was .713. That is the benchmark we will use in our projections. Any player who produces more than .713 AV per million can be classified as an above-average return on investment. For reference, quarterback Russell Wilson had the highest AV per million of any free agent signed in the 2024 class. He finished with 9 AV in 11 starts for Pittsburgh. The Steelers paid Wilson just $1.21 million in cash.

What we are looking for are low-cost signings that have the chance to outperform their bargain deals.

Here are our eight best potential value deals of the first wave of free agency.

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(All contract figures courtesy of Over the Cap.)

Levi Onwuzurike, IDL, Detroit Lions

2025 cash: $4 million

Interior defensive linemen got paid in this free-agent cycle. Milton Williams signed with the New England Patriots for $26 million in average per year (APY). Osa Odighizuwa returned to the Dallas Cowboys on a contract worth $20 million in APY. Javon Kinlaw got $15 million in APY from the Washington Commanders, while Tershawn Wharton got just over $15 million in APY from the Carolina Panthers. Onwuzurike had more pressures (47) and a higher pass rush win percentage (11.9) than both Wharton and Kinlaw in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus. He returned to the Lions on a far cheaper deal.

Onwuzurike only finished the season with 1 1/2 sacks, and perhaps that lack of box score production affected his market. But the upside here feels tremendous if Onwuzurike can maintain his level of pressure. An AV per million above 2.0 seems well in reach. Only 34 free agents from the 2024 class hit that number in 2024.

Joshua Uche, edge, Philadelphia Eagles

2025 cash: $1.92 million

The Eagles were the clear winners of free agency in 2024. It is no coincidence they went on to win the Super Bowl. Philadelphia received above-average AV per million returns on several free agents, including linebacker Zack Baun (4.0), running back Saquon Barkley (1.2) and guard Mekhi Becton (1.5). Baun was in the top 10 in AV per million after transitioning to off-ball linebacker and having a breakout All-Pro season.

If the Eagles are going to hit big on a 2025 free agent value signing like they did with Baun last year, Uche is a good bet. He is cheap. He had an 11 1/2-sack season with the Patriots in 2022. He will be playing alongside one of the best defensive tackles in football in Jalen Carter. And we saw in 2024 what kind of impact Carter had on his teammates, including Williams and edge rusher Josh Sweat, both of whom left in free agency. The big question with Uche is whether he can earn playing time in a deep edge rusher room in Philly. Nolan Smith Jr., Bryce Huff and Jalyx Hunt all return. The Eagles also signed Azeez Ojulari to a one-year deal in free agency.

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Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Miami Dolphins

2025 cash: $3.2 million

One big theme in our AV-per-million player rankings: Low-cost receivers with a pathway to playing time tend to produce substantial returns on investment. The Washington Commanders had two receivers in our 2024 top 10: Olamide Zaccheaus (4.64 in AV per million) and Noah Brown (4.13). Zaccheaus made $1.29 million in cash and caught 45 passes for 506 yards and three touchdowns. Brown made $1.21 million in cash and caught 35 passes for 453 yards and one touchdown.

Westbrook-Ikhine fits the profile in this year’s class. He has good size at 6-foot-2, 211 pounds and is a legitimate weapon in the red zone. His skill set is a logical complement to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Westbrook-Ikhine had nine touchdowns in 2024, tied for eighth among receivers. Six of those came in the red zone, also tied for eighth.

Richie Grant, S, San Francisco 49ers

2025 cash: $1.5 million

Grant, a former second-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons in 2021, started 32 games over the 2022 and 2023 seasons. But he lost his starting job when coach Raheem Morris and his staff took over in 2024. He should have a chance to compete for a starting job with the 49ers, who lost Talanoa Hufanga in free agency. Grant will have to beat out 2023 third-round pick Ji’Ayir Brown and Jason Pinnock, who San Francisco signed to a one-year, $2.2 million deal in free agency.

If Grant wins the job and plays starting snaps, there is a clear avenue toward a high AV per million. The 49ers have a history of finding value on cheap safety contracts. In 2022, they paid $1.12 million in cash for veteran Tashaun Gipson Sr., who started all 17 games. Gipson’s 6.25 AV per million that season ranks second for any free agent during the 2021-24 window.


If Richie Grant becomes a starter for the 49ers, he could be a bargain for his $1.5 salary in 2025. (Brett Davis / Imagn Images)

Ifeatu Melifonwu, S, Miami Dolphins

2025 cash: $3 million

The Dolphins had to retool their safety room during this year’s free agency period. Jevon Holland signed a big deal with the New York Giants. Jordan Poyer, who turns 34 in April, is a free agent. The Dolphins, at least partially because of their tight cap situation, had to look for cheap answers at the position. They signed Ashtyn Davis to a one-year, $2.5 million deal and they signed Melifonwu to a slightly more expensive contract. Both of these deals have the potential for AV-per-million upside.

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Melifonwu, a college cornerback who transitioned to safety in Detroit, has a higher ceiling. He has battled injuries and only played more than 10 games one time in his first four NFL seasons with the Lions. But when he played a full season in 2023, Melifonwu showed a ton of promise, including as a blitzer and in his ball production.

Najee Harris, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

2025 cash: $5.25 million

Harris is positioned to be a workhorse back for the Chargers, who cut Gus Edwards and have not yet re-signed J.K. Dobbins. Harris has not missed a game in his four NFL seasons. He has carried the ball at least 255 times and rushed for at least 1,000 rushing yards in all of those seasons. He has never finished a season with less than 6 AV. He has averaged 7.75 AV per season. This could end up being more of a base-hit signing.

If Harris can rediscover some of his rookie-year form, particularly as a pass catcher, this could become a more significant return on investment. In 2021, Harris caught 74 passes on 94 targets for 467 yards. His quarterback that season was Ben Roethlisberger. Harris produced a career-high 10 AV. The Steelers have been in QB purgatory since then, even if they got some viable production out of Wilson in 2024. Justin Herbert is quite willing to hit his check down if he has the running back to do it. Just ask Austin Ekeler.

This signing is reminiscent of the Devin Singletary deal with the Houston Texans in 2023. Singletary was entering his age-26 season and coming off his rookie deal that offseason. He was moderately productive over his first four seasons. He signed a one-year deal with the Texans and made $3.125 million in cash. That year, Singletary played all 17 games and produced 2.24 AV per million. Harris is entering his age-27 season. The cash figures are slightly elevated. But in terms of percentage of the cap, Singletary was at 1.4 percent. and Harris is at 1.9 percent.

Van Jefferson, WR, Tennessee Titans

2025 cash: $1.67 million

The Titans have some decisions to make before the start of the 2025 season, including who their starting quarterback will be. They have the No. 1 pick, which they could use on a quarterback. They could very well add another receiver in the draft. But as it stands, Jefferson has a chance to be the No. 2 option for whoever is throwing the football, behind Calvin Ridley.

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This feels similar to the Zaccheaus and Brown deals, who were playing alongside No. 1 Terry McLaurin. The Commanders struck gold with quarterback Jayden Daniels. At the price, there is plenty of room for a strong return on Jefferson, who in 2021 caught 50 passes for 802 yards and six touchdowns with the Los Angeles Rams.

Cornelius Lucas, OT, Cleveland Browns

2025 cash: $3.25 million

Lucas has made a career out of being a trustworthy swing tackle. The 33-year-old has double-digit career starts on both the right and left side, but he has only started more than eight games in one season.

The Browns do not have a reliable plan for left tackle on the roster. Dawand Jones, a 2023 fourth-round pick, has landed on IR in each of his first two seasons. The team signed Teven Jenkins but he’s primarily been a guard. Jedrick Wills is a free agent. Not to mention that right tackle Jack Conklin turns 31 in August and has battled multiple serious knee injuries, most recently in 2023. If Lucas starts a bunch of games at tackle for the Browns this season, he will be high up in our AV per million rankings next March.

(Top photos of Levi Onwuzurike and Najee Harris: Jorge Lemus / NurPhoto via Getty Images and Candice Ward / Getty Images)

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NHL playoff tiers: Where each team sits and what’s at stake down the stretch this season

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NHL playoff tiers: Where each team sits and what’s at stake down the stretch this season

The trade deadline is behind us and there are only 26 days until the end of the 2024-25 NHL regular season.

With each team having 15 or fewer games left, attention has shifted to the final stretch of the season. Whether a team is vying for a division title, in a tight playoff chase or looking to finish the season with momentum, the stretch run has a lot to offer for all 32 clubs.

This week, The Athletic asked its NHL staff to put teams into five playoff tiers — “not happening,” “long shot,” “bubble team,” “looks like a good bet” and “it’s a lock” — and highlight what’s at stake for each team down the stretch. Teams are listed alphabetically in their respective tiers.


Not happening

Boston Bruins

What’s at stake: Who will be the next captain?

The Bruins are sinking. They traded five players off their roster. It’s unlikely interim coach Joe Sacco will assume a permanent title behind the bench. Morale is low. So this is a good time for the organization to determine who will replace Brad Marchand as captain. David Pastrnak is currently wearing the only “A” with Charlie McAvoy injured. Pastrnak is known for his positivity and friendliness with his teammates. If Pastrnak can help the team hold its head high, he could be the next captain. — Fluto Shinzawa

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Buffalo Sabres

What’s at stake: The direction of the rebuild

The Sabres will miss the playoffs for a 14th straight season and are going to be a lottery team in Kevyn Adams’ fifth season as general manager. But he’s still been speaking and operating like someone who will stay employed beyond this season. Buffalo still has a lot of questions to answer this offseason beyond Adams’ job security. Will Lindy Ruff stay on as coach? Will he bring in new assistants? Which players will be part of the future? The stretch run could help determine some answers to those questions. — Matthew Fairburn

Chicago Blackhawks

What’s at stake: Anders Sörensen’s audition for permanent coach

Time is running out for Blackhawks interim coach Anders Sörensen to prove he deserves a shot at being the permanent coach. The Blackhawks have had some highs and lows since he was promoted. Some consistency down the stretch would likely be helpful for his case. — Scott Powers

Nashville Predators

What’s at stake: Andrew Brunette’s future as coach

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Predators general manager Barry Trotz has made public comments recently that suggest he expects Brunette back next season, but he then tried to walk back those comments and made clear there is no final evaluation at this point. The Preds are better off losing to increase their lottery odds, and the lineup reflects that at times, but Brunette still must try to get the best he can out of these guys each night. Especially if Trotz is truly undecided. — Joe Rexrode

Philadelphia Flyers

What’s at stake: Spots for the future

After dealing useful and young-ish players Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee to Calgary in late January, Flyers general manager Daniel Briere offered an unspoken reminder to the young guys still on the team that the bar is high to stick for the long term. Management will be keeping a close eye on the players who are still developing to determine whether to keep them or perhaps try and deal them in a trade this offseason. — Kevin Kurz


Sidney Crosby has 76 points in 69 games this season. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

Pittsburgh Penguins

What’s at stake: Sidney Crosby’s point-per-game streak

Sidney Crosby needs four points over the Penguins’ last 11 games to complete his 20th point-per-game season in a row, which would break Wayne Gretzky’s record of 19. Other than hoping to show off a new and improved Tristan Jarry to potential summer buyers, there isn’t a ton for the Penguins to play for at this point. Crosby missed two games earlier this season, so his magic number is 80 points. He currently sits at 76 points in 69 games played. — Josh Yohe

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San Jose Sharks

What’s at stake: Winning the draft lottery — again?

The only goals the Sharks had entering the season were playing a more competitive brand of hockey in Ryan Warsofsky’s first year as coach and ushering Macklin Celebrini into the NHL. If success is seeing Celebrini already becoming their best player, Will Smith starting to blossom in the second half and William Eklund showing to be a core playmaking forward, then call it success for San Jose. The wins will come later, the future is now and that means seeing youngsters Shakir Mukhamadullin, Collin Graf and Luca Cagnoni progress down the stretch. Otherwise, why not try to land the No. 1 pick and think about adding Matthew Schaefer to a promising blue line? — Eric Stephens

Seattle Kraken

What’s at stake: The team’s lottery odds

Two years out from a fairy tale run to within a game of the Conference Final, the Kraken have been a massive disappointment, and nothing that occurs down the stretch can really change that. At least Shane Wright has taken a major step, and Kaapo Kakko has flashed some major potential. The Kraken made some serious moves to begin to rebuild, and given their lack of progress after both a coaching change and a pair of expensive win-now moves this offseason, are probably best served by improving their lottery odds down the stretch. The internal pressure to make real progress next season has to be significant. — Thomas Drance


Long shot

Anaheim Ducks

What’s at stake: Momentum for 2025-26 with a strong finish

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The Ducks will fall short of a wild-card berth, but they’ve reached the step of playing games of some importance in March for the first time in several years. They’ve got 13 games left to make a statement that they intend to be a playoff team next season. Their last playoff appearance came in 2018, which is also the last time they finished above .500. Great goaltending by Lukas Dostal and John Gibson has powered them all season but now they’re seeing Jackson LaCombe become a force on defense and Mason McTavish having a big second half. Trevor Zegras is starting to recapture his mojo as a point producer. Now is the time to play spoiler and then build on the roster in the offseason. — Eric Stephens

New York Islanders

What’s at stake: Less than you’d think

Lou Lamoriello, who’ll be 83 in October, doesn’t seem to be in danger of being asked to leave by ownership. Patrick Roy is locked in behind the bench. The Islanders traded Brock Nelson for a good return at the deadline but would have some work to do to make other changes in the offseason. The playoffs would be nice, but we’ve known what this team is for a while now, and missing out won’t alter that perception. — Arthur Staple

Utah Hockey Club

What’s at stake: Building goodwill in a new market

The Utahns are only 4 points back of the final wild-card spot in the West, but they need to jump a couple of teams and don’t hold the tiebreaker. Their chances are down to 9 percent and an absolute pounding by the Oilers (7-1 loss) on Tuesday and recent losses to Chicago and Seattle haven’t helped. Keeping things close will be the goal, as no one’s job is likely on the line, with the real test coming in the offseason for this front office. They’ll have tons of cap space, a new name, rising young stars and a chance to make some noise in 2025-26. Year 2 in Salt Lake City will be the first with real pressure. — James Mirtle

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Bubble team

Calgary Flames

What’s at stake: Their own first-round pick

Calgary is playing with house money by being in contention thanks in part to their team MVP Dustin Wolf. One big question now is: Which first-round pick are they giving up to Montreal after this season thanks to that Sean Monahan trade? Where they finish in the standings will dictate which of their first-rounders they’ll have to give up (not including the New Jersey pick). — Julian McKenzie

Columbus Blue Jackets

What’s at stake: A truly inspirational story

The Blue Jackets aren’t supposed to be here. They were expected to be among the dregs of the NHL, down there at the bottom of the standings with San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim, etc. Truth be told, in losing eight of their last nine, including six straight, the Jackets are probably closer to a long shot than a bubble team. They’re three points behind Montreal for the final spot, but that murky middle of the Eastern Conference is quite the traffic jam. They’ve already overachieved, but this season won’t be viewed through quite the same lens if they don’t make the playoffs. — Aaron Portzline

Detroit Red Wings

What’s at stake: A summer of discontent

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Detroit has been much better since head coach Todd McLellan arrived at Christmas, getting back into the playoff race despite long odds. But even so, Red Wings fans’ patience has slowly evaporated after eight long years without playoff hockey. Steve Yzerman is safe as general manager, but missing the postseason for a ninth straight year certainly won’t make it a comfortable summer in Hockeytown, where the pressure to win is now really ramping up. There aren’t many obvious solutions in free agency, especially given Detroit’s so-so track record there the last few seasons, but the Red Wings can’t just keep waiting forever — especially with Montreal seemingly already having caught up to them. — Max Bultman


The Canadiens are making a late push for the playoffs. (Eric Bolte / Imagn Images)

Montreal Canadiens

What’s at stake: A great development opportunity

The Canadiens have already achieved their goal of playing meaningful games in March; the fact they largely have their playoff destiny in their own hands this late into the season is a bonus. But for the young core of this rebuild, to have an opportunity to experience the intensity of the playoffs would be an invaluable development moment. The Canadiens are far from a finished product, there are several pieces left to add and develop in this rebuild, but a playoff appearance would serve as an accelerator in many ways, and proof to their fans that brighter days are around the corner and their patience will be rewarded. — Arpon Basu

New York Rangers

What’s at stake: Respectability

The Rangers have been a mess most of this season. Their defense is among the worst in the league, and Chris Drury has tried to remake to roster on the fly. They’ve dug themselves a hole in the standings, and the odds are stacked against them to make the playoffs. The rest of this season should be about committing to winning habits and seeing if results follow. If they don’t (and perhaps even if they do) this offseason could feature plenty more changes to the roster, and maybe even the staff. — Peter Baugh

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St. Louis Blues

What’s at stake: How much of the core is kept

This will be Doug Armstrong’s final offseason as Blues general manager. The organization announced last June that Alexander Steen will replace him after the 2025-26 season and Armstrong’s sole title will be president of hockey operations. As his clock winds down, Armstrong indicated that he’d explore making changes to the Blues’ core group of players if the results didn’t improve. Well, those core players have responded well, and the results have been better. If the club can complete its late-season surge and end a two-year playoff drought, perhaps he’ll consider keeping a couple of those players who he may have planned to move this summer. — Jeremy Rutherford

Vancouver Canucks

What’s at stake: Pretty much everything

The club’s overtime loss on Thursday in St. Louis will ding its odds, but the Canucks are in the mix for the second wild-card spot despite a season that’s been defined by inconsistency, injury and off-ice dysfunction to this point. From a playoff berth to the team’s overall direction, just about everything feels like it’s on the line for the Canucks. — Thomas Drance


Looks like a good bet

Minnesota Wild

What’s at stake: Making the playoffs

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The Wild have a little cushion in their wild-card spot but it’s getting tighter with a bunch of teams pushing. And Minnesota has a tough week ahead with a Dallas/Vegas back-to-back and then hosting the Capitals. Injuries have been a huge factor all season with Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek still out for a while. There won’t be a regime change or coaching change if they miss the playoffs. But it’s still very important, especially with the Wild having traded their first-round pick for David Jiricek. They could get a boost down the stretch or for the playoffs if top prospect Zeev Buium does indeed sign after the University of Denver season. — Joe Smith

New Jersey Devils

What’s at stake: Setting a standard for the future

With Jack Hughes out, the Devils are hard to take seriously as a Stanley Cup contender. In many ways, the rest of this season is about laying the groundwork for the future. New Jersey needs to show it’s a legitimate playoff team, even without Hughes, Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler. Making the postseason still matters. And who knows, if the Devils get in maybe they can push a team (Carolina is their likely opponent) in the first round and maybe steal a series. That would build good momentum heading into 2025-26, when the team hopes to be healthy enough for a more legitimate Stanley Cup push. — Peter Baugh

Ottawa Senators

What’s at stake: The team’s core

The Senators have a 93 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. They caught fire at the right time and made essential moves at the deadline to improve their team. That includes trading away Josh Norris from their core to acquire Dylan Cozens. It’s a move many might’ve expected in the offseason, but the Sens did it sooner. If they somehow miss now, it’ll be a catastrophic end to their season and might necessitate further changes to their core. — Julian McKenzie

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It’s a lock

Carolina Hurricanes

What’s at stake: Solidifying the lineup

The Hurricanes have new faces, injured players poised to return and prospects all vying for ice time. Coach Rod Brind’Amour will need to fit together all the pieces, determine if young defensemen Scott Morrow and Alexander Nikishin factor into Carolina’s postseason plans and decide which goalie will lead the way in the playoffs. — Cory Lavalette

Colorado Avalanche

What’s at stake: Home ice in the opening round

There are plenty of (justified) complaints about the current playoff format. It’s unfortunate that two of the league’s best in Colorado and Dallas are set to meet in the first round, but it’s a reality. In all likelihood, we are heading for that heavyweight brawl, and in a series that could easily go seven games, home ice could be crucial. Winning Sunday’s meeting in overtime was a good start, but the Avalanche still have some work to do to catch the Stars in the standings. — Jesse Granger


Mikko Rantanen has had a decent enough start to his Stars career. (Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)

Dallas Stars

What’s at stake: Mikko Rantanen’s comfort level

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Miro Heiskanen’s uncertain availability for the first round hangs over everything, but in the regular season, all that really matters is home ice against Colorado (meh, whatever) and making sure Rantanen is firing on all cylinders come the playoffs. He’s had a decent enough start to his Stars career, but he needs to be fully comfortable with the Stars’ system, his linemates (Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson) and his off-ice life if Dallas is going to live up to its full potential and win the Stanley Cup. These last few weeks should be all about putting Rantanen in a good headspace entering the postseason. — Mark Lazerus

Edmonton Oilers

What’s at stake: A Pacific Division crown

The Oilers will make their sixth straight playoff appearance dating to the 2020 bubble. The only thing to be determined is where they’ll be slotted in the Western Conference bracket. Veteran defenceman Mattias Ekholm lamented in training camp that the Oilers had home ice in only one of their four playoff series last spring. To ensure at least two, they’ll have to fend off Los Angeles and surpass Vegas to claim their first division title since 1986-87. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman

Florida Panthers

What’s at stake: Trying to avoid the 2-3 matchup in Round 1

With another win over Columbus on Thursday night, the defending champs moved one step closer to clinching a playoff spot. Florida is playing without four key players right now — Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand and Dmitry Kulikov — and it’s been a bit of a bumpy stretch. The Panthers have a tough schedule left and really mainly want to try and enter the postseason without losing anyone else. But winning the Atlantic — and avoiding the Leafs or Lightning — matters, too, even if the top wild-card team figures to be coming into the playoffs red hot. — James Mirtle

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Los Angeles Kings

What’s at stake: Home-ice advantage in the first round

The Kings are too good defensively and too phenomenal at home to fall out of playoff contention, so they’re a lock. The carrot that’s in front of them is being able to start a series at home, which hasn’t happened in three straight playoff defeats to Edmonton. With 11 of their final 15 at home, they’ve got a shot to overtake the Oilers for second place in the Pacific Division. Tracking down Vegas for the division title is probably out of reach but they need more offense throughout their lineup to support Darcy Kuemper, who’s having a terrific comeback season. — Eric Stephens

Tampa Bay Lightning

What’s at stake: Home-ice advantage

The Lightning’s playoff standing is essentially locked up at this point. The only question is where they finish in the division. Jumping up (and maintaining) the second seed would ensure Tampa Bay at least has home ice in Round 1. But if this team can sneak into first place, it would solidify that standing through at least two rounds. Having home ice isn’t everything, but having the ability to control the matchups to open a series can be a real advantage — whether Jon Cooper opts for a power-versus-power matchup with his top players or sends Anthony Cirelli and Ryan McDonagh out to shut down the opponents’ best. — Shayna Goldman

Toronto Maple Leafs

What’s at stake: The Atlantic Division title

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The Leafs have never won the Atlantic. A win this spring would equal a lighter first-round matchup, which would equal a lighter path, theoretically, to the franchise’s first Stanley Cup since 1967. Winning it will mean beating out Florida and Tampa Bay. The Leafs have dropped both games to the Panthers so far, but still play them twice in April. They’ve won, on the other hand, both meetings with the Lightning with one more meeting still to go. Those games may well determine 1-2-3. — Jonas Siegel

Vegas Golden Knights

What’s at stake: Fourth Pacific Division title in eight years

The Golden Knights have built a small lead over Edmonton and Los Angeles in chase of their fourth division title in eight seasons. Getting to the finish line would guarantee Vegas home ice for the first two rounds of the playoffs, and more importantly, avoid the Oilers and Kings — who have both played them well — in the opening round. The Golden Knights are 25-7-3 at T-Mobile Arena this season, the second-most home wins in the NHL. — Jesse Granger

Washington Capitals

What’s at stake: A starting role in the playoffs

The easy answer here is Alex Ovechkin’s goal chase. That is a major focus for both Washington and the entire league. But there is one other storyline to watch — the goalie rotation. The Capitals have had an even rotation all season, with Charlie Lindgren and Logan Thompson playing every other game until this week when Thompson started two straight. Teams tend to lean on one goalie in the playoffs, so it will be interesting to see if Thompson starts playing consecutive games more regularly to prepare, or if Lindgren can push for a look as the 1A. — Shayna Goldman

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Winnipeg Jets

What’s at stake: Multiple end-of-season awards and, more importantly: Cup-contending confidence

The Jets could win their first Presidents’ Trophy. They’re well on their way to their second straight William M. Jennings Trophy. Connor Hellebuyck has a great case to repeat as the Vezina winner, while a strong end-of-season push could get him on more people’s radar for the Hart. Josh Morrissey will earn Norris votes, Adam Lowry will get consideration for the Selke, Scott Arniel should be considered for the Jack Adams and yet: the most important thing on the line for Winnipeg is its own self-confidence. The Jets haven’t been out of the first round since 2021, so every game between today and the playoffs is about proving Winnipeg is ready to overcome recent playoff demons. This is meant to be the year. — Murat Ates

(Top photos of Victor Hedman and Auston Matthews: Ray Seebeck and Sergei Belski / Imagn Images) 

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