Culture
Does USMNT have an attendance issue? The answer isn’t simple
When U.S. Soccer chose to host U.S. men’s national team friendlies in Kansas City, Kansas and Cincinnati, Ohio during the September international window, it seemed like a safe enough bet.
Kansas City sits in America’s soccer heartland and is home to Sporting Kansas City, among MLS’ most consistently supported sides, and the NWSL’s Kansas City Current, who have become an instant smash with fans of the women’s game with the return of professional women’s soccer to the area.
Cincinnati, too, has its own history and love affair with soccer. FC Cincinnati, its MLS club, is among the league’s most competitive sides and the club has resonated with locals, who turn out in droves for matches.
The USMNT wouldn’t exactly be facing any elite opponents — last month’s matches were against Canada and New Zealand — and nobody was expecting a pair of sellouts. But the wide swaths of empty seats visible on the broadcasts of both matches caught some off guard. The crowd in Kansas City barely broke five figures. The 15,000 or so U.S. faithful in Cincy was about 7,500 short of the average for an MLS match in the city.
This is not for lack of love for soccer. pic.twitter.com/F73hClk356
— Pat Brennan (@PBrennanENQ) September 10, 2024
In the moments after both matches, fans took to social media with their theories as to why nobody was turning out: in the days leading up to Mauricio Pochettino’s appointment as the side’s new manager, nobody wanted to watch a B team being led by an interim manager, some said. Others pointed to the USMNTs dreadful performance at this summer’s Copa America, or blamed ticket prices, scheduling congestion and competition with other sports — college, high school and NFL football, for example.
Others were less kind: fans hadn’t turned out, they said, because the USMNT isn’t doing much to be compelling these days, and is sometimes downright bad.
Just a month later, a near-sellout crowd turned out in Austin, Texas to watch the USMNT take on Panama. And just like that, the attendance heartburn got shelved — for now.
Yet the reality of the USMNT’s intermittent struggles to resonate with fans is much more complicated and won’t be solved on any social media platform or message board.
Examining home attendance data over the last 30 years makes things clearer in some regards and more complicated in others. The data paints a picture of a federation that continues to raise ticket prices, often choosing to play matches in smaller venues and in front of fewer fans who pay a much larger sum to get in. It disproves common tropes, like the assumption that attendance might be higher in a World Cup year or is largely based on strength and profile of opponent.
The raw data also paints a bleaker picture of the USMNT’s long-term popularity. Despite the talk of a “golden generation” and despite having multiple players playing regularly for some of the biggest clubs in global soccer, the U.S. isn’t drawing significantly more fans nowadays than it has in the last three decades. In recent years, the team has often drawn fewer total fans than it has in the past, all of whom are paying more money than ever to see a sometimes-lackluster product.
At U.S. Soccer, executives frequently speak about growing the game and exposing the widest possible audience to their teams. And though attendance is on an upswing as the U.S. prepares to co-host the World Cup in 2026, crowds like the ones seen in Kansas City and Cincinnati are still all too common.
Record profits, but at what cost?
By almost all accounts, it has been a good year at the gate for the USMNT.
Despite their struggles at Copa America and those low-key friendlies in October, the USMNT are drawing an average of 39,459 fans to their matches this year, a number padded not only by Copa America but by large crowds to see them in friendlies against Colombia in the D.C. suburbs and Brazil in Orlando.
Some of those crowds have been made up largely of fans in attendance to support the visiting side, but that will always remain the reality in a country like the U.S. where nearly every foreign nation, particularly those from Latin America, is represented by a large immigrant population.
“In terms of attendance, we’re very bullish on where we sit today when we think of the balance of 2024,” U.S. Soccer chief commercial officer David Wright tells The Athletic. “I think we have a ton of optimism.
“We have a brand new coach who comes from an incredible background. We have a dynamic player pool that play both domestically in MLS and for some of the largest clubs around the world. And the level of sophistication amongst our fans is incredibly high. It has evolved tremendously. (They have a deep) appreciation for the sport and a high level of sophistication, which is also really important. It’s a great thing for the sport.”
It’s Wright’s job, within U.S. Soccer at least, to sell the game of soccer: to fans, who have had a sometimes tenuous relationship with the men’s team (while simultaneously falling in love with the women’s side) and to sponsors and donors, who’ve helped transform the federation from a small, volunteer-run organization into a giant, money-making entity over the last four decades.
He has his own answers to questions regarding the USMNT’s struggles (and successes) in terms of attendance.
From a purely financial standpoint, the federation is doing well these days. U.S. Soccer recently did a media blitz, offering up executives to tout record profits and donations, even as it laid off dozens of staff as the federation itself prepared to leave its long-time home in Chicago for a new facility in Atlanta. Its financial reality is surely a net positive for the game in this country — even if, undoubtedly, the federation has its problems.
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Still, record profits do very little for fans who have been faced with rising ticket prices over the years. By U.S. Soccer’s own account, they’ve grown their revenue base by being calculated in terms of how they price tickets, the scale of the venues they host matches in and the way they sell the tickets themselves.
U.S. Soccer examined the 1998-2018 World Cup cycles and presented their findings at a meeting in 2017, painting a stark picture of this price increase. In that 1998 cycle, a ticket to a home qualifier had an average cost of $19.81. That price went up about $10 in the three cycles that followed, another $20 in the 2014 cycle and over $30 between 2014 and 2018.
In that final cycle, U.S. fans paid an average of $97.06 to watch the USMNT miss out on their first World Cup in a quarter-century.
All the while, profits skyrocketed while average attendance fell.
As smaller, soccer-specific venues continued to pop up across the U.S., the federation more frequently chose to host matches there, raising prices in the process. That 489 percent price increase over three decades grossly outpaced inflation and priced many fans out permanently. It also made the federation plenty of money: they made some $7 million off the 2002 cycle from an average of 31,158 fans per match.
Three decades later, they made nearly three times as much money off the 2018 cycle, despite playing in front of 70,000 fewer fans and averaging nearly 10,000 fewer fans per match.
“When we think about how we price our events, first of all, we’re a private (non-profit 501C3), so we have to run a business that’s sustainable,” said Wright. “It’s expensive to stage a senior national team match regardless of the market, but obviously the larger the venue, the more expensive the hard costs are. In a stadium that has turf, for example, there are incremental expenses related to laying down a grass field.
“It’s about finding that balance. It’s all about providing as much access as we can and optimizing that fan engagement part while also managing the business in a fiscally responsible way.”
Revenue and ticket prices by World Cups
WC Cycle
|
Games
|
Total attendance
|
Total revenue
|
Average attendance
|
Average ticket
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1998 |
4 |
124,526 |
$2,466,589 |
31,132 |
$19.81 |
2002 |
8 |
249,266 |
$6,990,974 |
31,158 |
$28.05 |
2006 |
9 |
170,186 |
$6,780,466 |
18,910 |
$39.84 |
2010 |
9 |
191,922 |
$9,227,538 |
21,325 |
$48.08 |
2014 |
8 |
169,135 |
$10,958,947 |
21,142 |
$64.79 |
2018 |
8 |
181,090 |
$17,576,139 |
22,636 |
$97.06 |
Fans of the men’s and women’s national teams understand the federation’s need to be financially sustainable. Many, though, are understandably concerned that pricing many fans out of seeing matches in person will ultimately do more harm than good to the game’s popularity in the U.S. Dynamic pricing, at this point, is the industry standard, making matches even more cost-prohibitive at times if demand increases.
“We lean on a lot of data and insights,” Wright said. “We work very closely with the host venue, our great partners at Ticketmaster, we lean heavily on fan insights and we have a lot of great historical information. And there’s also supply and demand — I think our fans do a really good job of securing their tickets early. In a high-demand market, obviously, those prices can increase over time just based on dynamic pricing.
“We’ve done a very good job of finding that balance. At the end of the day, we are 100 percent focused on growing the game and we know that someone’s experience at a U.S. national team game, or an MLS game, or an NWSL game, is critically important to the fan journey. We play an important role in that.”
Slim pickings
Attendance is up this year, largely due to the U.S. playing in a Copa America on home soil and squaring off against a pair of elite, well-supported opponents — Brazil and Colombia.
Looking back over 30 years, the average Elo ranking of the USMNT’s home opponents in 2024, 31, is higher than all but one year, 1999. Common sense would dictate that higher-quality opponents make for higher average attendance.
Not so fast.
Yes, the U.S. has drawn well this year and drew similarly well in 2011, for example, when that Elo ranking was 34. But it has also drawn nearly as many fans, on average, to see them in years when that number was as low as 59. In the end, that average strength has little bearing on attendance, certainly not enough to qualify as a trend.
USMNT total and average attendance
YEAR
|
NUMBER OF GAMES
|
TOTAL ATTD
|
AVG ATTD
|
AVG ELO OF OPPONENT
|
---|---|---|---|---|
1994 |
21 |
648,060 |
30,860 |
44 |
1995 |
6 |
127,188 |
21,198 |
33 |
1996 |
12 |
427,848 |
35,654 |
53 |
1997 |
12 |
363,564 |
30,297 |
40 |
1998 |
11 |
309,661 |
28,151 |
34 |
1999 |
5 |
163,125 |
32,625 |
26 |
2000 |
12 |
424,104 |
35,342 |
51 |
2001 |
9 |
268,650 |
29,850 |
34 |
2002 |
12 |
325,104 |
27,092 |
43 |
2003 |
12 |
255,000 |
21,250 |
48 |
2004 |
9 |
180,774 |
20,086 |
67 |
2005 |
15 |
360,645 |
24,043 |
50 |
2006 |
7 |
142,513 |
20,359 |
57 |
2007 |
12 |
387,372 |
32,281 |
53 |
2008 |
7 |
214,137 |
30,591 |
61 |
2009 |
12 |
393,624 |
32,802 |
49 |
2010 |
6 |
214,314 |
35,719 |
36 |
2011 |
14 |
564,032 |
40,288 |
34 |
2012 |
6 |
199,254 |
33,209 |
62 |
2013 |
14 |
473,228 |
33,802 |
59 |
2014 |
6 |
202,812 |
33,802 |
48 |
2015 |
14 |
542,696 |
38,764 |
59 |
2016 |
14 |
345,296 |
24,664 |
37 |
2017 |
14 |
411,852 |
29,418 |
64 |
2018 |
7 |
169,141 |
24,163 |
23 |
2019 |
16 |
372,592 |
23,287 |
64 |
2020 |
2 |
11,672 |
5,836 |
N/A |
2021 |
15 |
376,920 |
25,128 |
57 |
2022 |
7 |
149,681 |
21,383 |
70 |
2023 |
16 |
473,248 |
29,578 |
58 |
2024 |
11 |
434,049 |
39,459 |
31 |
That’s probably good news for U.S. Soccer, who may continue to struggle to find high-quality opponents, especially during World Cup qualifying — the USMNT are already in as co-hosts. In a fall 2023 window, the U.S. faced 60th-ranked Uzbekistan and 78th-ranked Oman, hardly the sort of opponents that move the needle in the U.S., even among immigrant communities.
“I would say first we’re very fortunate to be in what is the most commercially viable market in the world,” Wright said. “There’s a reason why there’s a lot of demand and a lot of interest for some of the most high-profile teams to want to play in the U.S.
“But you’re right: when you think about the international calendar, the number of competitions, and just the landscape from a sporting perspective, it continues to evolve.”
The U.S.’ participation in the CONCACAF Nations League also has implications for the USMNT, as the region has its fair share of minnows. All of this is laid out if you look at upcoming windows as they stretch into 2025 and beyond. Nations League and Gold Cup aside, the U.S. may struggle to find truly competitive matches as nearly every other confederation will be involved in World Cup qualification in one form or another.
Take the September 2025 window. Many CONCACAF, CONMEBOL and CAF teams — or, at least, the highly competitive ones — will be busy playing qualifiers. Only AFC teams will be free, greatly narrowing the U.S.’s pool of potential opponents.
Opponents are so difficult to find that Mexico, which like the U.S. has qualified for 2026 as a host nation, played La Liga side Valencia in the last international window.
“It’s certainly getting complicated,” FMF executive president Ivar Sisniega told reporters this month in Guadalajara. “We’ve even talked with the U.S. to do the doubleheaders we sometimes do, where we both play the same two teams. That means it’s more attractive for those teams to come and play us because they’re playing against both of our teams.
“We’re going to continue looking at clubs. Some people maybe didn’t believe in the Valencia option. In the end, it turned out to be a very solid team that is playing in La Liga, and they play together. So, there’s different conditions.”
The official team of Central Standard Time
Since the 2018 World Cup, the USMNT has played more matches in the Midwest, 28, than they’ve played on the coasts combined. They’ve also made a habit of playing in a few markets — Orlando, Austin, Kansas City and Cincinnati — with much more frequency than they play elsewhere.
This is a newer trend, but it didn’t happen overnight.
In many ways, U.S. Soccer chooses these cities because it favors the venues and training facilities available in them. But there are many, many other factors. Some of them don’t matter to fans in places like New York and Seattle, where the MNT rarely plays.
“We often talk about the many pieces to the events puzzle, and it is a puzzle,” said Wright. “There’s opponent availability. We are laser-focused on finding opponents and always want to play the best. How you navigate that international calendar is an argument in and of itself.
“Factor number two is the availability of the venue. You mentioned New York, but a) it’s expensive and b) if you think about the other folks that play in a New York venue, finding dates that coincide with an international calendar, those don’t often align — really honing in on markets that are the right markets for the opponent, and are available based on all the other events and then, quite frankly, markets that economically make sense based on the opponent and the venue.”
The federation deals with geographic considerations, of course, in terms of the distance that players — its own and those of the opponent — will travel for a match. In windows where the club plays multiple matches, the federation will cluster those matches in cities that are easily accessible to each other (Cincinnati and Kansas City, for example), attempting to keep travel times to 2.5 hours or less, according to Wright.
And opponents, particularly high-profile ones, sometimes get a say. When the USMNT played a sold-out match against Germany in Hartford, Connecticut a year ago, it did so in part because of demands from their counterparts at the German federation.
“They were very adamant that they wanted to be on the East Coast,” said Wright. “Now, you layer that over all the other considerations that I already mentioned, and Hartford was the only market that was available. It ended up working out beautifully because we sold out Hartford. It happened to be grass, we hadn’t played there in a while and it ended up being an incredible outcome, but you can very quickly see that it’s not easy.”
From a business and exposure perspective, there is another crucial component to venue selection, from the federation’s perspective: what will work for its broadcast partners.
“Time zones matter when we think about broadcasts,” Wright said. “How do we optimize our national viewers? Having a kickoff time in the right time zone so that it’s primetime is really important.
“Weather — an example, probably, would be that we tend to not play in Florida during certain times of the year, during storm or rain season. Taking a close look at weather patterns, and from a temperature perspective as well. And then, lastly, working with the markets and the other events. When we work in a market that has an NWSL or MLS team, they too have their own calendar and schedule, so making sure that we are complementary in that market, not competitive.
“When you take all those factors and you start to use them as filters, you see that it’s more than: ‘I want to go play here.’ It’s so much more complicated than that. I give our team a ton of credit for navigating through this web of factors to ultimately produce 20 to 25 matches between the men’s and women’s teams.”
The rest
There are other common misconceptions in terms of attendance.
Average USMNT attendance does not go up, typically, in a World Cup year, when interest in the team is typically at its highest.
There’s also the idea that hiring a high-profile coach like Pochettino will drive interest. That certainly feels true on social media and in coverage of the team, but it remains to be seen whether there will be any effect at the gate. Looking back at every full-time coaching change the USMNT made between 1994 and 2024, there has never been any measurable effect on attendance.
None of those coaches, of course, had the international notoriety and pedigree that Pochettino does, something that’s probably increasingly important to a fanbase that grows more interested in the international game by the day.
In the end, Wright feels unconcerned with bumps in the road like those poorly attended matches in Cincinnati and Kansas City. In the near term, as a home World Cup approaches, increased interest in the U.S. may be enough to sustain attendance through 2026. The effects of other variables, like rapidly increasing ticket prices and a narrowing list of cities that get matches, might take longer to reveal themselves.
“We tend to look at things holistically throughout the calendar year,” Wright said. “There are ebbs and flows. Sometimes there is no rhyme or reason to it. As an organization, we’ve become incredibly sophisticated in terms of how we select markets, how we price each match and ultimately how we market the game.
“It’s all about providing as much access as we can and optimizing fan engagement while also managing the business in a fiscally responsible way.”
(Top photos: Getty Images; Design by Meech Robinson)
Culture
American men can’t win Olympic cross-country skiing medals — or can they?
Ever since Jessie Diggins started collecting Olympic medals and crystal globes and staking her claim as the world’s top cross-country skier, she has made it clear that she wants her legacy to be something more than wins and appearances on podiums.
She wants to spawn a new generation of top American skiers, even among the men, who have yet to achieve the success that American women have.
Diggins could be on the cusp of doing that — with a major assist from Ben Ogden and Gus Schumacher, a couple of 24-year-olds who just might be on the verge of taking American cross-country skiing where it hasn’t been before.
These are the boys who have grown up watching Diggins’ every move, seeing her collect trophies and medals and, because of that, believing they could one day, too. These are the boys who are landing on podiums and fist-bumping Norwegians and Swedes at the end of races.
They hear half-drunk Scandinavians chant their names as they whiz by them on snowy tracks through the forests of Europe, especially Ogden. His mustache and full-gas-from-the-start style have caught the imagination of Nordic skiing fans in the sport’s spiritual centers in northern and central Europe. In American skiing circles, he gets compared to Steve Prefontaine, the mustachioed track star of the 1970s who ran like Ogden skis, with a caution-to-the-wind fearlessness that can hurt your lungs to watch.
It wasn’t long ago, like maybe even the summer before last, that Ogden, a 6-foot-4 Vermonter, would turn sheepish when people would ask him what he did for a living. Sometimes he would tell a half-truth, focusing on his studies as a part-time graduate student in mechanical engineering at the University of Vermont, as if racing on the World Cup circuit was a side hustle.
Not anymore.
“I’m just like, ‘I’m a skier, I’m a professional skier,’ straight up,” Ogden said during an interview this fall in New York, a couple of weeks before he and Schumacher headed to Europe for nearly five months. “I’m a lot more proud.”
After winning the coveted green bib as the fastest skier 23 and under during the 2022-23 season, Ogden got his first career podium in the first stage of last season’s Tour de Ski, a multi-race event that began with a sprint in Toblach, Italy, but COVID-19 and mononucleosis cut his season short. This season, he had the top qualification time in the sprint in Lillehammer, Norway, in early December, finished 15th overall in the Tour de Ski earlier this month and on Friday earned his second career World Cup podium with a third-place finish in the 10-kilometer skate race in Les Rousses, France.
As for Schumacher, last February the rugged Alaskan thrilled some 40,000 fans who lined the course of the 10-kilometer World Cup race in Minnesota, where he became the youngest American ever to win a World Cup and the first American male to win a distance event since 1983. He has three top-10 finishes already this season and is 12th in the distance standings.
“We used to celebrate top 30 (finishes), and the top 20 was crazy because you finish in the top 20, you get paid,” Schumacher said, sitting next to Ogden in a club chair at a midtown Manhattan hotel. “Now it’s top 10, because you finish top 10, you could have been on the podium, for sure. Depending how things go, you can win.”
In all, six American Nordic skiers landed on the podium during the 2023-24 season, including Ogden, Schumacher and Diggins, who won the crystal globe for the overall title for a second time in the past four seasons.
As recently as 2018, the U.S. was looking for its first Olympic medal in cross-country skiing since Bill Koch won the silver in the 30-kilometer race in 1976. That was the lone American cross-country medal until Diggins started collecting them, first with Kikkan Randall in a team sprint in 2018 and then in two individual races four years later.
At 33, Diggins has won so many of the big prizes in her sport. She could retire tomorrow and call it an epic career. During a conference call with reporters before the season, she said being a part of the U.S. team, which largely spends the winter traveling and living together because it can’t go home between races, plays a major role in her decision to keep coming back.
“I love what I do, and I love who I do it with,” Diggins said. “It is hard to be on the road for four months. The idea of doing this together with this team and going after relay podiums and (the) Nations Cup, things like that when we group together, that to me is so exciting.”
In years past, and even in other sports, some men could resist seeing a female champion as a role model. On the U.S. Nordic team, Diggins functions as a team captain, big sister, den mother and chief glitter application officer. During Schumacher’s first few years on the World Cup, Diggins put him up in the house she would rent during the Christmas break.
He and Ogden are feeling a little more grown up after last season, the first when they felt empowered enough to start making some decisions for themselves, figuring out what might work best for them as individuals. They got COVID-19 at the same time in January. After their period of isolation ended but before they were ready to start competing and training again, they decided to head to Spain for a few days of warmth and sun on the beaches near Valencia rather than hunkering down in chilly Switzerland.
They’ve even discussed doing that again this season as a kind of midseason break that their European competitors get every few weeks when they head home.
“Just to, like, get away from the racing scene a little bit,” Schumacher said.
As skiers, Ogden and Schumacher come at the sport from opposite ends. Ogden excels in shorter races. He’s never really seen a race where he doesn’t want to burn from the beginning. Schumacher is better at longer distances. He specializes in pacing, in thinking his way through races.
“I think I made good progress by being a patient racer,” he said. “I like to look around during a distance race, take in my surroundings and think — which is not to say you don’t do that,” he said, as he turned to Ogden.
Ogden immediately interrupted.
“No, I don’t,” he said.
As they have improved, their peer groups have shifted some. It is the nature of cross-country skiing, with so much time spent battling with competitors on sometimes woodsy, isolated trails that you end up being most friendly with the people you finish with.
At first, beyond the U.S. team, they were most friendly with the lesser skiing nations. Then they got pretty friendly with the Swedes. Now they are getting to know the vaunted Norwegians, the kings of the sport.
Ogden’s father, who introduced him to cross-country, died during the 2023 offseason. When the season started up again, Norway’s Johannes Klaebo, pretty much the world’s best skier, was among the first to approach him and offer his condolences.
“That was pretty incredible,” Ogden said.
The relationship between the Norwegians and the U.S. cross-country team is a funny one. The Norwegians are constantly telling the Americans how they want them to excel, because they see the U.S. as a huge potential market. They know American success will be good for the sport. They got to witness that firsthand with the throngs of cross-country enthusiasts who greeted them in Minnesota, which produced some of the biggest crowds the sport had seen.
“Then we win and it’s like a national crisis for them and they fire their wax techs,” Schumacher said, only half-joking.
Like everyone this season, their eyes get big when they think about the world championships in February in Trondheim, Norway, the biggest event ahead of the 2026 Olympics in Italy. Can they medal in the relays or the team sprint there? Maybe. More individual podiums would be great, too.
Mostly, though, they want to make their presence felt. They want to be a part of the conversation and feel like every time they race, they can win.
“We want to be someone that people are looking out for,” Ogden said. “We do that for other people. Right now that’s becoming us.”
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Jessie Diggins talks cross-country skiing’s most grueling test: the Tour de Ski
(Top photo of Ben Ogden racing during the Tour de Ski earlier this month: Grega Valancic / VOIGT / Getty Images)
Culture
How Silence Improves Pico Iyer’s Life
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For decades, starting in 1991 after his house in Santa Barbara burned to the ground, the travel writer and essayist Pico Iyer has taken regular silent retreats at a Benedictine monastery in Northern California as a way to recharge himself through solitude. He writes about those retreats, and the lessons they’ve imparted, in his new book, “Aflame: Learning From Silence.”
Iyer joins us on the podcast this week to talk about his new memoir and his life’s journeys.
“I’m a writer, so I spend most of my day alone,” he tells the host Gilbert Cruz. “And it’s true that even from a young age, I only had to step into the silence of any monastery and convert, and I felt a kind of longing, the way other people feel a longing when they see a delectable meal or pistachio gelato or some such. But I’d always felt this longing.”
We would love to hear your thoughts about this episode, and about the Book Review’s podcast in general. You can send them to books@nytimes.com.
Culture
Emma Raducanu and Iga Swiatek’s Australian Open match reunites two teenage Grand Slam winners
MELBOURNE, Australia — In 2020, Iga Swiatek won her first Grand Slam title at 19.
The following year, Emma Raducanu won her first Grand Slam title at 18.
The pair of teenage major winners have followed divergent paths since then. Swiatek has added four more Grand Slam titles to her tally, spending over 100 weeks as world No. 1 in the process; Raducanu hasn’t reached the final of a single WTA Tour event, let aloneanother major.
Their Australian Open third-round match on Saturday is one of the most consequential of Raducanu’s career since winning the U.S. Open in 2021. She has gone deeper in a Grand Slam before, reaching the Wimbledon fourth round last year, but she has never played an opponent ranked higher than world No. 7 at a major.
Raducanu’s career record against top-10 players is 2-7, with an 0-3 head-to-head against Swiatek, but she has won her last two matches against top-10 opponents at Eastbourne and Wimbledon respectively. After a heavily disrupted 2024, 2025 brings an immediate test against one of the best players in the world.
Swiatek and Raducanu, now 23 and 22 respectively, took very different trajectories en route to their first Grand Slam titles. Swiatek’s breakout tournament at the 2020 French Open came on the back of numerous Grand Slam main draw match wins and a junior Wimbledon title, while Raducanu won the 2021 U.S. Open as a qualifier, a once-in-history tennis moment.
Raducanu laughed Thursday when talking about breakthroughs in the wake of beating friend Amanda Anisimova 6-3, 7-5 to set up the meeting with the world No. 2.
“I know that she was playing since a very young age and my hours in comparison were probably a bit comical when I was 17 or 18, playing six hours a week,” she said in a news conference.
“I don’t think it was the same trajectory.”
In that junior Wimbledon title run, Swiatek met Raducanu in the quarterfinals. She won 6-0, 6-1.
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Emma Raducanu has done all-or-nothing tennis. Now, can she just play?
The contrast has persisted since their respective first major titles, with Swiatek winning Grand Slams on multiple surfaces (clay and hard courts) while Raducanu either flattered to deceive in the wake of suddenly and infinitely increased expectations or suffered continual misfortune with injuries. Her career has been one of consistent rebuilds, while Swiatek has won at least one major in each of the past three seasons, picking up 22 singles titles and the 2024 United Cup’s “most valuable player” title after winning all of her singles matches.
In 2022, when Swiatek won both the French and U.S. Opens, Raducanu was having her first proper season on the WTA Tour — as a Grand Slam champion. Her results were good when presented as a rookie player trying to navigate a full season for the first time, with one semifinal and a couple of quarterfinals. They were less good by the normal standards of a Grand Slam champion. Raducanu ended the year ranked No. 75 after a first-round exit at the U.S. Open saw her lose 2,030 points and plummet from No. 11 to No. 83 in the space of two weeks.
It was a year of frequent coaching changes for Raducanu. Having won the U.S. Open with Andrew Richardson, she replaced him with Torben Beltz just two months after winning the title. By April 2022, Beltz was out and Dimitry Tursunov, who had worked with Annett Kontaveit while she reached No. 2 in the world, was in.
Tursunov didn’t continue beyond a trial period of a few months, telling Tennis Majors that there were “red flags” he could not ignore. Sebastian Sachs arrived in December 2022 and lasted until the following June, making it five coaches in less than two years for Raducanu. Richardson had replaced Nigel Sears in July 2021, just two months before her U.S. Open win.
“Anything that’s not necessarily serving me, I’m just pretty savage in terms of just prioritizing myself and focusing,” Raducanu said on Thursday in Melbourne. “Anything that wants to try and affect that, I don’t have time for it. No hate. I just don’t want to kind of let that in.”
Coaches are asked to put together PowerPoint presentations to explain their thinking — she has always had an incredible focus and demand for excellence. Even as a junior, she would seek out coaches who could help her with specific shots. She’s obsessed with the why of things and won’t just jump because she’s told to.
She said on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme in October 2023: “l ask my coaches a lot of questions. On certain occasions, they haven’t been able to keep up with the questions I’ve asked and maybe that’s why it ended.”
Beltz was brought in to improve her forehand and when that wasn’t happening, Raducanu saw little point in carrying on.
A big moment in the next Raducanu rebuild came at the end of 2023 when she hired Nick Cavaday as coach. The pair worked together when Raducanu was a junior and had discussed a possible partnership earlier in her senior career, with the timing on both sides not working out. He joined her team towards the end of a 2023 season that had been dominated by another recurring theme in her career: injuries.
She missed the majority of the season after double wrist surgery and an ankle operation, which together meant she played just five events and ended her season in April. While Raducanu was in the early stages of rehabilitation, Swiatek was scooping up a third French Open, her second in two years, and a fourth Grand Slam title overall.
Cavaday is still in place 13 months later, an eternity compared to how long her previous coaches have lasted. Raducanu responds to his clarity of thinking and style of communication, with a focus on offering evidence and data to support what he is saying. Cavaday’s technical expertise also allows them to work on specific shots — especially the forehand and serve — which has been a key factor in Raducanu’s previous coaching decisions.
At this year’s Australian Open, the forehand has been potent, but the latter is a work in progress. Raducanu will meet her opponent on Saturday with the more settled team, as Swiatek eases into life with Wim Fissette. Fissette has coached former world No. 1 players Naomi Osaka, Kim Clijsters and Angelique Kerber, winning six Grand Slam titles in total, and looks to be returning Swiatek to the devastating but controlled aggression that has seen her dominate the sport. Her succession of too-similar defeats under former coach Tomasz Wiktorowski, in which she descended into a tailspin of overhitting groundstrokes in the face of peaking opponents, looks a long way away.
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Swiatek is yet to suffer a defeat to Raducanu; Raducanu is yet to win a set against her. They crossed paths in 2024 for the third time after the Brit moved her ranking up from No. 285 at the start of the season to No. 58 by its close. She met Swiatek at the WTA 500 Stuttgart quarterfinal, which Swiatek won 7-6(2), 6-3.
Raducanu entered the tournament as a wildcard because she is a brand ambassador for Porsche, who also sponsor the event. Later in the year, Raducanu posted a picture of herself driving her £100,000 Porsche Cayenne after rumours spread that the company had taken back a car they’d gifted her when she was spotted taking a public bus in London. In December, Raducanu told a small group of reporters that she would cut down on sponsorship days.
Last year also brought that run to the Wimbledon fourth round, but it was overshadowed by her decision to withdraw from her mixed doubles with the retiring Andy Murray to protect her wrist ahead of her fourth-round match.
Raducanu felt she had no choice. Murray was gutted. His mother, Judy, called it “astonishing” on social media. Raducanu faced a lot of criticism for doing what most players would have done in the same situation before she said tennis “doesn’t feel different at all” when asked about Murray’s absence at the U.S. Open. She added that the way tennis works means that even someone like Murray moving on is “old news the next day.”
Even without that episode, Raducanu has faced challenges in connecting with the wider sporting public. In Melbourne, she spoke about the Murray situation in a less matter-of-fact way than previously.
“Afterwards, I sent him a long message, basically: ‘If I caused any trouble I guess at Wimbledon, that’s definitely the last thing I want,’” she told a small group of reporters.
“He’s someone that I’ve grown up looking up to and I don’t want any bad blood or harsh feelings with him.”
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Raducanu is aware of the importance of an athlete’s public image and met with a group of British journalists for an interview and an informal lunch in December in which she explained some of her goals for 2025. After hiring fitness trainer Yutaka Nakamura, who has worked with Grand Slam champions and world No. 1s Maria Sharapova and Naomi Osaka, Raducanu said: “I think I can become one of the best athletes in tennis. I think he’s really going to help with that.”
At that time, Raducanu had only just returned from a couple of months out after spraining foot ligaments at the start of September. She’d had a tricky period before that, too, opting against trying to qualify for the pre-U.S. Open hard-court swing and then arriving at the U.S. Open undercooked.
In her pre-tournament news conference, Raducanu spoke of how good she was feeling, but after losing to Sofia Kenin, Raducanu cried in her post-match duties. “I feel down, I feel sad,” she said.
Raducanu arrived in Melbourne under similar circumstances after a back spasm picked up while tying her shoelaces meant she arrived at the Australian Open with no match practice.
Both of her victories to date, against No. 26 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova and then former French Open semifinalist Amanda Anisimova, have been scrappy but clutch when necessary. She has won her last eight tiebreaks, including two against Alexandrova. Her tweaked serve has been shaky, but she has relied on her ground game and worked through physical issues to shield the problems with her serve. Raducanu received treatment on her back when 0-3 down in the second set against Anisimova, before winning seven of the next nine games to take the match.
Her defensive tennis was outstanding against Anisimova, hustling across the baseline to draw errors by forcing one more shot out of an increasingly erratic opponent.
“I was able to get to some balls that maybe I wouldn’t have been able to previously,” Raducanu said afterwards.
When asked about their divergent paths over the past few years, Swiatek was philosophical. “Everybody’s story is different and everybody struggles with different stuff,” she said in a news conference on Thursday.
The expectation is that Swiatek will be too strong, but being in the position to take on the world’s best players feels like an important step for Raducanu.
“When we’re going to be out there on the court, whoever is going to play better will win, and that’s it,” Swiatek said.
(Top photo: Robert Prange / Getty Images)
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