In 2024, new spot crypto ETFs officially launched, Bitcoin (BTC 1.12%) emerged as a political campaign issue for the first time, and meme coin mania returned to the crypto market. All of that has led to stunning gains for nearly every major cryptocurrency. Bitcoin, for example, is now up more than 100% for the year, and is rapidly closing in on the $100,000 price level.

So what can we expect in 2025? The safe answer, of course, is “more of the same.” But let’s dig a little deeper and consider what major changes might be right around the corner.

A new regulatory environment for crypto

Ever since the crypto market crash of 2022 and the spectacular collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, there has been talk of the U.S. enacting a comprehensive new regulatory framework for crypto. Something has to be done, the thinking goes, to make the crypto market less of a “Wild West” environment. Unfortunately, not much has actually been done over the past two years.

So, 2025 could be the year that crypto finally gets a new regulatory framework. That likely starts with a reduction in the role of the SEC, which has been the de facto lead regulator when it comes to crypto. President-elect Donald Trump has already promised that he would replace Gary Gensler, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), on day one of his administration. That’s a move that will certainly resonate with crypto investors, who are tired of the SEC’s perceived heavy-handed approach to regulating crypto.

If new crypto legislation passes in Congress, it would likely lead to the installation of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — and not the SEC — as the new lead regulator for crypto. This legislation would also lead to much more clarity around what can be done, and what can’t be done, in the world of crypto investments. And it could even lead to a repeal of SAB 121, a much-disliked accounting rule from the SEC that governs how cryptocurrencies must be held on the balance sheets of financial institutions.

A crypto “arms race” by sovereign governments

In the final months of the presidential campaign, there was a surprising amount of talk of how crypto is emerging as a new national strategic priority. In fact, some crypto backers have even suggested that we might see a Bitcoin “arms race,” as sovereign governments around the world go on Bitcoin buying sprees.

In the U.S., this buying spree would likely start with the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve that will be empowered to buy 1 million Bitcoins over the next five years. Conceptually, a strategic Bitcoin reserve would be much like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, only it would hold Bitcoin instead of petroleum. Owning 1 million Bitcoins, equivalent to 5% of the current circulating supply, would make America a “Bitcoin superpower,” as Trump promised on the campaign trail.

Other nations would likely need to follow suit. And that has raised the interesting possibility that China might be forced to roll back its crypto ban, which has been in place since late 2021. If China goes all-in on Bitcoin, and starts to accumulate Bitcoin the way it has been growing gold reserves, we could see a monster incoming Bitcoin rally.

And don’t forget about the world’s biggest sovereign wealth funds. They are also potential huge Bitcoin buyers, and there have been on-again, off-again, rumors that affluent nations such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar have been very quietly buying Bitcoin for their sovereign wealth funds. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has already suggested that sovereign wealth funds might become some of the biggest buyers of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs (including its own spot Bitcoin ETF).

The arrival of a new cryptocurrency superstar?

If you buy into the idea of an incoming crypto market bull rally, then it makes sense that we could see the emergence of a new crypto superstar in 2025. That’s what happened during the crypto bull market rally of 2020 and 2021, when the emergence of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) created hot new crypto tokens. The previous rally also led to the rise of new Layer 1 blockchain networks such as Solana.

So what can we expect this time around? It’s impossible to predict which new coins or tokens will take off, but there are some interesting clues out there. There are new opportunities in Bitcoin mining, for example, thanks to Trump’s campaign promise to mine all future Bitcoin in America.

Keep your expectations in check

Heading into 2025, it’s easy to see why there’s such bullish sentiment in the crypto market right now. All of a sudden, it seems like anything is possible. Thanks to Elon Musk and the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), we’re now talking about Dogecoin in the same sentence as government efficiency. It’s fun, but it’s also scary.

So keep your expectations in check. There’s still a lot of heavy lifting to do on the regulatory front. And the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve is an idea so new and so untested that it might not ever get off the ground. But one thing is certain: There will be plenty of opportunity for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin to skyrocket in value next year, as long as new pro-crypto policies are put into place.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office in Manhattan reportedly will pursue fewer cases related to cryptocurrency.

Scott Hartman, co-chief of the securities and commodities task force at the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, said Friday (Nov. 15) that the office has fewer prosecutors working on crypto cases than it did during the crypto winter, Reuters reported Friday.

“We brought a lot of big cases in the wake of the crypto winter — there were a lot of important fraud cases to bring there — but we know our regulatory partners are very active in this space,” Hartman said at a conference hosted by the Practicing Law Institute in New York, according to the report.

The Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s Office secured several convictions related to crypto crime, including that of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, the report said.

Current U.S. attorney Damian Williams, who was appointed by President Joe Biden, is set to be replaced by Jay Clayton, who was nominated for the post by President-elect Donald Trump, per the report.

Clayton led the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) during Trump’s first term and was less aggressive at pursuing crypto cases than current SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the report said.

It was reported Tuesday (Nov. 12) that the price of bitcoin leaped after Trump’s election victory, driven by enthusiasm for the advent of a pro-crypto White House.

While Trump at one time called cryptocurrencies a scam, he changed his tune during his third bid for the White House, pledging to turn the U.S. into the “crypto capital of the planet” and to establish a national bitcoin stockpile.

Trump has also been a vocal critic of Gensler, who has taken a tough stance on the crypto industry. The president-elect’s promise to replace Gensler with a more crypto-sympathetic regulator has led to speculation that the SEC would take a more hands-off stance under a new chair.

In other sectors of the economy, experts predicted Trump would roll back some of the antitrust policies instituted under Biden. This could include abandoning the Department of Justice’s efforts to break up Google, which has been under scrutiny for monopolistic practices.

The cryptocurrency company Greenidge Generation has been allowed to continue to operate its power plant in Yates County for the time being, after a judge ruled Thursday that the Department of Environmental Conservation did not justify its final denial of the company’s permit application.

Greenidge burns fossil fuels at the plant, which sends energy to New York’s grid and powers machines that generate bitcoin. That process puts greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere, which contribute to climate change.

Earlier this year, the DEC upheld its previous decision to deny the company’s request to renew its permit to operate the power plant. The department said the plant’s operations were inconsistent with the state’s climate law, which requires New York to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030.

The company sued the state over that denial, arguing that the the DEC overreached in how it applied the climate law.

On Thursday, New York Supreme Court Judge Vincent Dinolfo ruled that the DEC does have the authority to deny a permit under the climate law, but the department’s justification in its final denial in this case was insufficient.

Dinolfo ordered that the DEC’s decision to deny Greenidge’s permit application be annulled and remitted the case to the department, meaning that a lower administrative court must provide more justification of how the plant’s operations are inconsistent with the climate law.

In the meantime, Greenidge is permitted to continue to operate the power plant. In a statement Thursday, the company celebrated the ruling.

“The ruling ensures our facility will continue operating and our local employees will not have their careers ripped away,” read the statement.

Greenidge also alleged that the DEC’s initial denial was “politically motivated.” The company has been fighting with the DEC for years over its permit.

“The damage caused to our company and employees by the recklessness of the DEC and all those who lied about our operation is real,” the statement continued. “Today the Court set the record straight – we were right, and the state and its allies were wrong.”

A DEC spokesperson said that the decision confirmed the department’s authority to deny permits if an application does not meet the requirements of the climate law.

“As the matter was remanded back to DEC for further administrative proceedings, DEC cannot comment further on pending litigation,” the spokesperson said.

Environmental stakes

In his ruling, Dinolfo noted that the DEC can refuse to renew a permit based on climate impacts — but it must adequately justify its decision based on the climate law.

Environmental advocates say for that reason, the ruling underscores the power of the state’s climate law.

“The judge confirmed what we knew: that the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation has the authority to deny air permits — including renewal air permits — under the [climate law],” said Mandy DeRoche, an attorney with Earthjustice who is representing environmental groups involved in the case. “New York now can be confident that it can make decisions to protect our climate, the health and well-being of all New Yorkers.”

However, DeRoche noted that environmental groups are disappointed that Greenidge is allowed to continue to operate as the legal proceedings continue.

“It’s a big loophole,” said DeRoche. “You can get your air permit denied or modified, and then you can continue to operate and pollute like you were before, just because you have the deep pockets and the funds to continue litigating.”

The ruling requires an administrative court to now reconsider Greenidge’s permit renewal application and to provide justification for the claim that the plant’s operations would be inconsistent with the state climate law. Then, the case will likely return to the state Supreme Court.

That process is expected to take months — a timeline that concerns other local environmental advocates.

“For years, Greenidge has been polluting local air and spewing climate-warming greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere,” said Yvonne Taylor, vice president of Seneca Lake Guardian, one of the groups involved in the case. “It’s absurd that Greenidge is still operating, and we will keep fighting until the facility is shut down.”

The state had initially ordered Greenidge to shut down the power plant by Sept. 9.