Key Takeaways:

• Arthur Hayes ties bitcoin’s outlook to global liquidity, with upside dependent on policy-driven liquidity.
• Geopolitics create a bearish setup as war risk, deleveraging, and AI-driven stress weigh on markets.
• Liquidity injections could lift bitcoin once credit stress forces intervention.

Bitcoin Outlook Hinges on Liquidity

Arthur Hayes’ latest market note, titled “No Trade Zone,” signals that bitcoin’s outlook is increasingly tied to global liquidity conditions rather than traditional macro indicators. On April 15, the Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom CIO outlined a cautious stance, citing geopolitical tensions and artificial intelligence-driven economic risks as key constraints. The essay presents BTC as vulnerable in the short term but positioned to respond to future monetary expansion.

Hayes centered his outlook on monetary conditions rather than conventional valuation models. He asked, “Do you believe the quantity or the price of money is more important when valuing bitcoin?” He then answered with a direct thesis:

“I believe the quantity of money determines the price of bitcoin, not its price.”

That view underpins his broader market framework, which expects bitcoin to struggle during periods of forced deleveraging, then strengthen when policymakers expand credit. He tied that dynamic to several geopolitical outcomes involving the Strait of Hormuz, as well as to a domestic economic slowdown driven by job losses among white-collar workers. In Hayes’ view, those pressures could hit credit quality, weigh on banks, and delay any durable crypto rally until authorities supply fresh liquidity to stabilize the system.

War Risk and Credit Stress Threaten Rally

That caution appears clearly in one of the essay’s most specific forecasts. “ Bitcoin might bounce a bit after the situation reverts to the pre-war status quo,” Hayes wrote. “However, the AI agentic deflation bomb still ticks below the surface. Until the Fed provides the liquidity needed to plug the black hole in banks’ balance sheets caused by consumer credit defaults, bitcoin will not meaningfully rise.” He further shared:

“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”

The statement shows that he still sees upside potential, but not before broader financial stress is addressed.

Hayes also warned that market stress could produce another sharp bitcoin selloff before any recovery takes hold. “As investors de-risk their portfolios because of higher volatility and lower prices, investors sell bitcoin to meet margin calls,” he described, adding: “Only when things get bad enough will bitcoin rise, as expectations of a bailout become the consensus.” In the most extreme scenario, even a liquidity-fueled rally may not last. As Hayes put it: “The rally in bitcoin, inspired by money printing, might be short-lived because the destruction of the Iranian state materially raises the prospect of WW3.” Taken together, the essay presents a conditional forecast: near-term volatility remains high, while any lasting upside still depends on crisis-era money creation.

Key Takeaways:

• Chainalysis flags Grinex swaps as inconsistent with typical law enforcement seizures.
• Tron-based conversions show illicit actors avoiding stablecoin issuer intervention.
• Grinex activity does not clearly align with patterns of a conventional external hack.

Grinex Shutdown Raises Questions About Crypto Laundering Tactics

Sanctions pressure continues to test the resilience of crypto networks tied to restricted financial activity. Blockchain intelligence firm Chainalysis on April 17 examined Grinex after the sanctioned exchange suspended operations. The review described the shutdown as a new stress point for infrastructure tied to sanctions evasion.

Grinex claimed a cyberattack cost about 1 billion rubles, or $13.7 million, and published the source and destination addresses involved. Chainalysis then assessed the transfers using on-chain data rather than relying on the exchange’s narrative. The analysis found that the stolen assets were mainly a fiat-backed stablecoin before being moved through a Tron-based decentralized exchange into TRX.

“In the case of the alleged Grinex hack, the stablecoin funds were quickly swapped for a non-freezable token, thereby avoiding the risk of having the stablecoins frozen by the issuer,” the blockchain analytics firm stated, adding:

“This frantic swapping from stablecoins to more decentralized tokens is a hallmark tactic of cybercriminals and illicit actors attempting to launder funds before a centralized freeze can be executed.”

Chainalysis argued that this behavior does not fit a typical Western law enforcement seizure because authorities can request freezes from centralized stablecoin issuers. The firm instead said the rapid conversion raises questions about whether the activity aligns with a conventional external hack.

Shadow Crypto Economy Shows Deep Interconnected Structure

Those conclusions rest on more than the attack claim alone. Chainalysis noted that the decentralized exchange used in the swap had previously served Garantex, the sanctioned predecessor to Grinex, as a liquidity source for hot wallets. That detail is notable because Chainalysis has already described Grinex as the direct successor to Garantex after international enforcement disrupted the earlier platform. The company also tied Grinex to A7A5, a ruble-backed token issued by sanctioned Kyrgyzstani company Old Vector.

According to the analysis, A7A5 was built for a narrow Russia-linked payments ecosystem aligned with cross-border settlement needs under sanctions pressure. Chainalysis added that the exfiltrated funds were still sitting in a single address at publication time, leaving a live trail for future forensic review.

The broader takeaway was less about one theft than about the financial system surrounding it. Chainalysis observed that the episode is the latest disruption inside a “shadow crypto economy.” That phrase captured the firm’s larger conclusion that Grinex, Garantex, A7A5, and related services formed an interlinked network designed to keep value moving despite sanctions. Chainalysis further disclosed that it labeled the relevant addresses in its products to help customers identify exposure as the funds move downstream. Even without final attribution, the firm made clear that Grinex’s suspension damages a key channel within that sanctioned ecosystem.

What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is widely recognized as the pioneering cryptocurrency and continues to hold the top spot in terms of name recognition and market size. Its market capitalization is roughly $1.33 trillion, putting it far ahead of second-place Ethereum with about $233 billion in market cap.

At a basic level, Bitcoin functions as a decentralized digital currency. Instead of relying on a central authority like a bank or government, it runs on a peer-to-peer network of computers. This design lets people transfer value straight to others without using a traditional financial intermediary.

Many investors turn to Bitcoin as a potential hedge against inflation in the U.S. dollar or as a way to branch out beyond conventional investments. Over the past decade, it has posted stunning gains, often outperforming major stock indexes, which has played a big role in its popularity.

At the same time, Bitcoin shares a key trait with other cryptocurrencies—it can be extremely volatile, with frequent and sometimes dramatic price changes.

Bitcoin price history

Since it was introduced in 2009, Bitcoin has been highly volatile and often headline-grabbing. One early milestone in its history involves developer Laszlo Hanyecz, who famously spent 10,000 Bitcoins on pizza. Today, those coins would be valued at more than 668 million dollars.

Over the last decade or so, Bitcoin’s price has climbed more than 15,000%. This tremendous growth comes with a trade-off, as cryptocurrencies are known for their unpredictability. Bitcoin has undergone severe pullbacks—sometimes dropping tens of thousands of dollars within months—as well as dramatic recoveries. At the close of 2025, it was trading roughly 30% below the all-time high it hit that very October.

What affects Bitcoin’s price?

Several different dynamics can move Bitcoin’s price up or down, including:

• Investor speculation: Like many speculative assets, Bitcoin’s short-term price is heavily driven by trader psychology and buzz. In the near term, prices usually reflect investor beliefs and trading activity more than anything else.
• Adoption by major companies: When large corporations embrace Bitcoin or broader crypto technology, it can help support further growth. For example, Bitcoin’s price rose after companies such as Tesla and Ferrari announced plans to accept Bitcoin as a payment option.
• Economy: Bitcoin doesn’t track inflation figures or central bank decisions in the same way many traditional investments do. Still, it often benefits when the U.S. economy is strong, because people who feel financially secure may be more willing to allocate money to alternative assets that are a bit riskier—like crypto.
• Regulatory developments: As a relatively young asset class, cryptocurrency is still in the process of being fully regulated. New rules or enforcement actions can either instill confidence or create fear. Both cases can significantly affect Bitcoin’s price.

How to buy and invest in Bitcoin

If you’ve decided to invest in Bitcoin, there are multiple ways to do it. Here are some of the main options.

Buy Bitcoin on a cryptocurrency exchange

The most straightforward route is to buy Bitcoin directly. You set up an account with a crypto exchange, connect it to your bank, and then use your deposited cash to buy Bitcoin.

Invest in Bitcoin ETFs

For those who prefer a more traditional investment vehicle, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are an alternative. A Bitcoin ETF holds Bitcoin on behalf of its shareholders, and its shares trade on standard stock exchanges. This option lets you skip the process of managing your own crypto wallet and can reduce the risk of losing access to your funds because of a password mistake or wallet issue.

Buy crypto stocks

Investors who don’t want to buy Bitcoin directly can also consider stocks of companies in the crypto space. These might include tech companies that support blockchain technology, public crypto exchanges, even payment processors. Because these companies may earn revenue from Bitcoin-related activity, their share prices can offer indirect exposure to Bitcoin’s performance.

Open a Bitcoin IRA

For retirement-focused investing, a Bitcoin IRA is another great option. Like a standard IRA, it’s a tax-advantaged account with similar contribution limits and tax rules, but it lets you allocate some of your retirement savings to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as alternative investments.

Bitcoin vs. other cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin might be the best-known name in crypto, but it is not your only choice. When weighing where to put your money, you may want to compare it with a few other major coins.

• Ethereum: Ethereum is currently the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed mainly as a form of money, Ethereum was built as a decentralized computing platform and is widely used for running applications and smart contracts.
• Tether: Tether is a stablecoin, meaning that its value is directly tied to another asset—in this instance, the U.S. dollar. Its peg typically keeps price movements smaller than Bitcoin’s, but that also means there’s less opportunity for outsized growth.
• XRP: XRP is a digital asset created to make sending money across borders faster and cheaper, focusing specifically on international transfers with low transaction costs.

Crypto coverage from Fortune

See our newsroom’s recent coverage of what’s been happening on the cryptocurrency scene:

Is it a good time to invest in Bitcoin?

When compared with long-standing blue-chip names such as Procter & Gamble or Walmart, Bitcoin is still a newcomer. That makes predicting its long-term behavior challenging. But its recent history has been impressive. As more companies start accepting Bitcoin as a payment method, its price may get a further boost, and as the asset matures, it might eventually see somewhat smoother price movements.

However, Bitcoin should not be treated as a sure bet. It’s wise to invest only money you can afford to have tied up and to ensure your broader portfolio is diversified, so other investments can help offset Bitcoin’s volatility.

For most people, Bitcoin is better viewed as a long-term, higher-risk holding than as a quick trade. It is not ideal for investors who are uncomfortable watching large price swings. But if you plan to hold it for years and keep it as a piece of a balanced portfolio, investing in Bitcoin could make sense for a portion of your overall strategy.

Frequently asked questions