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Can the Bitcoin surge push India to overcome its cryptocurrency hurdles?

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Can the Bitcoin surge push India to overcome its cryptocurrency hurdles?

The recent remarkable surge in Bitcoin prices has sparked a pertinent query among Bitcoin investors: Will this trend change the fortunes of Indian cryptocurrency firms?

The nation’s cryptocurrency exchanges are witnessing a substantial burst in demand, driven by the recent skyrocketing of Bitcoin prices to unprecedented highs.

The Indian cryptocurrency platform CoinDCX, for instance, has reported a significant five-fold increase in trading volumes over the past month.

“Specifically, our spot trading volume, which began around $5 million at the beginning of February, rose to approximately $25 million by February 28,” says Sumit Gupta, co-founder of CoinDCX.

“The recent surge in Bitcoin’s value has undeniably ignited a wave of enthusiasm and confidence.”

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Meanwhile, India’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, WazirX, which is based in Mumbai, is also experiencing significant growth in cryptocurrency transactions.

“My servers are humming at overcapacity,” says Rajagopal Menon, vice president, WazirX, which has experienced a 20-fold increase in trading volumes since the beginning of the year.

“My new users are up, my daily traffic is up. So, the long and short of it is that it is a function of sentiment – the moment price goes up, it’s herd mentality and everyone wants to buy. So, we are definitely seeing an uptick in people wanting to buy their favourite crypto.”

Tax burden

Despite the rise in investor interest, volumes are still down from their peaks as crypto exchanges are burdened by heavy taxes imposed by the country.

In 2022, India imposed a 30 per cent tax on profits from cryptocurrencies, as well as a 1 per cent tax on all transactions of the virtual assets.

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While “there is no dearth of people” wanting to invest in cryptocurrencies, Mr Menon says, that “retail investments have not reached the peak that we saw in 2021”.

This development coincides with the growing apprehensions expressed by Indian authorities regarding cryptocurrency trading. The risks associated with it, coupled with fears of potential misuse for illicit activities like money laundering, have raised concerns.

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There’s also a worry that it could pose a threat to the stability of the nation’s financial system.

These concerns resonate with numerous nations worldwide, including India. The Indian authorities are indeed wrestling with the challenge of how to regulate these assets, especially considering their sustained popularity.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has risen by almost 54 per cent year-to-date to over $68,000 as of Friday evening. This was lower than the new all-time high it reached on Thursday of $73,803, which dived further down to about $65,000 on Sunday.

The rise of Bitcoin has been driven by various factors, such as inflows into US spot exchange-traded crypto products and the expectation of global interest rates falling. This often leads traders to redirect capital into risky assets.

Investor interest in cryptocurrencies has grown following the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in late January.

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The Bitcoin “halving” event is anticipated to occur in April, resulting in a reduction in the rate at which new coins are generated. Historically, these events have led to an increase in the value of the cryptocurrency.

Indian exchanges are pleased to witness a resurgence in investor demand, after a challenging period for the sector.

“We’ve witnessed a remarkable 150 per cent increase in spot market trading volume,” says Mr Gupta. “This surge in demand for Bitcoin is fuelled by the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, signalling a maturing market.”

The growth trend is not limited to Bitcoin.

The company has seen “significant growth across large-cap cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, Shiba Inu, and Binance Coin”, says Mr Gupta.

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The rise in demand “isn’t just confined to retail investors – we’ve also seen a notable increase in engagement from high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors”.

Regulation catch-up

However, despite the renewed interest in virtual assets, exchanges are reporting that the current tax regime continues to dampen investor appetite.

“Changes in India’s regulatory landscape, including a new tax regime, have influenced the cryptocurrency appetite,” says Pranav Srivan Elankovan, founder of Crypfi, a cryptocurrency exchange.

“The introduction of taxes and regulatory uncertainties has prompted investors to adopt a more cautious approach, potentially dampening demand.”

The taxes in 2022 have had an enormous impact on the industry, Mr Menon says.

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“The moment this happened, [crypto investors] stopped trading in India,” he says.

“They fled to exchanges abroad, because crypto knows no boundaries. So, you had a lot of foreign exchanges or offshore exchanges benefiting from Indian customers actually shifting the capital abroad.

“Our volumes were down by 90 per cent in the bear markets”, by the end of 2022 and last year, he says.

However, he adds that the “Indian government has taken a very serious view of offshore exchanges not complying with Indian laws” and is taking steps to prevent Indian citizens from trading cryptocurrencies on them, thereby benefiting Indian exchanges.

In January, India blocked access to the websites of major global cryptocurrency exchanges after issuing notices to them for not complying with the country’s money laundering laws.

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Furthermore, despite the high 30 per cent tax rate, it is widely accepted within the industry that this serves as a clear indication that the government acknowledges cryptocurrencies as a legitimate form of investment. Speculation had long persisted that India would impose a ban on cryptocurrencies.

“Sustained demand hinges on ongoing regulatory clarity and the confidence of investors in the Indian cryptocurrency market,” says Mr Elankovan.

Sidharth Sogani, the founder and chief executive of the cryptocurrency research firm Crebaco, made the decision to relocate from India to Dubai three years ago. He cited the UAE’s more “robust and open-minded” approach to the cryptocurrency market as a key factor in his decision.

He states that despite the Bitcoin rally, Indian cryptocurrency exchanges are still at a disadvantage.

“Volumes have not reached the previous bull cycles we observed in 2021, when the market had a way higher volume, and exchanges were more aggressive and they were advertising a lot,” says Mr Sogani.

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He asserts that regulation is of paramount importance.

“India is not a regulated market for crypto. It is legal, but it’s not regulated – they are two different things,” says Mr Sogani.

“When you say regulation, that means the regulatory body is responsible for all the market exchanges to report in a certain manner and that regulatory body does not exist yet. Once it does exist, there will be a different market for India.”

What is Bitcoin and how did it start?

The exchanges have expressed their openness and readiness to embrace a regulatory framework.

“We want clear guidelines,” says Mr Menon. “For example, it’s very difficult, even now, for Indian crypto companies to get reliable banking connections.”

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But he believes “a change is on the horizon”. This belief stems from India’s recent actions under its G20 presidency, which together with other member nations, embraced a strategic plan to guarantee a synchronised execution of a policy framework for crypto assets.

“We are hopeful that regulation will make the [cryptocurrency] industry a better place to be in and things would be much better in the coming years for India,” says Mr Menon.

Updated: March 18, 2024, 5:30 AM

Crypto

The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

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The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

While studies reveal institutional investors and wealth managers believe tokenized ETFs will drive mainstream market adoption for cryptocurrency, there looms the theft of bad actors that most often go untraceable.

Barriers to the expansion of tokenization are starting to fall as major investment firms consider launching tokenized ETFs, according to new global research by London-based Nickel Digital Asset Management (Nickel), Europe’s leading digital assets hedge fund manager founded by alumni of Bankers Trust, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

Its study with institutional investors (pension funds, insurance asset managers and family offices) and wealth managers at organisations which collectively manage over $14 trillion in assets found almost all (97%) believe the potential launch of tokenized ETFs such as BlackRock’s will be important to the expansion of the sector with nearly one in three (32%) rating the development as very important.

The study also reflected the belief that tokenization will continue to grow, with nearly 70% of respondents believing that fund managers looking to tokenize investment funds and asset classes will increase over the next three years.

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Nickel’s research with firms in the US, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates found growing awareness of the benefits of tokenization. Private markets are seen as offering the greatest potential for tokenization, with almost 70% seeing private equity funds as the asset class with the most opportunity, followed by fixed income (55%) and public equities (42%).

Anatoly Crachilov, CEO and Founding Partner at Nickel Digital, said: “Tokenization is quickly moving from theory to real-world adoption as institutional investors grow more comfortable with its benefits and see major players enter the space. When firms like BlackRock step in, it fundamentally shifts the conversation. This development is timely for our multi-manager vehicle as expanding liquidity depth will allow some of our pods to start trading tokenized assets in the coming months.”

To address potential criminal threat, an advanced detection system to identify and trace blockchain funds connected with criminal activity was presented earlier this week at the Annual CyberASAP Demo Day in London.

The system, called SynapTrack, enables faster and more accurate detection of fraudulent activity using blockchains and cryptocurrencies, where traditional anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing systems struggle to keep pace.

Although current fraud detection methods pick up unusual activity, they deliver an extremely high rate (40%) of false positive reports. These require manual checking by compliance professionals, resulting in backlogs in identifying and acting on suspicious activity.

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The SynapTrack system is designed to deliver a substantially lower rate of false positives. It has already been tested using real-life data from the notorious 2025 Bybit hack, where criminals stole $1.5bn of digital tokens from a cryptocurrency exchange. SynapTrack traced the hacker with 98% accuracy.

The team behind SynapTrack is keen to hear from exchanges, financial regulators or law enforcement agencies who want to test the prototype in real-world conditions.

SynapTrack uses a validated methodology to score the likelihood of transactions being part of a money laundering scheme. It has a self-improving algorithm that continuously adapts to new tactics – dynamically identifying suspicious patterns in blockchain transactions. It has a universal cross-chain capability, and is designed around how compliance teams work, presenting results in a dashboard. No infrastructure changes are needed for installation.

It is relatively easy to obscure fraudulent or criminal activity by moving funds between blockchains, or dispersing them across many blockchains, in what are known as ‘cross-chain’ transactions. It is these transactions that pose the greatest difficulty for existing anti-money laundering systems.

SynapTrack was developed by University of Birmingham computer scientists Dr Pascal Berrang and PhD student Endong Liu, in collaboration with blockchain developer Nimiq. Dr Berrang’s research is in IT security and privacy on blockchain, artificial intelligence and machine learning. The subject of Endong Liu’s PhD is transaction tracing. Nimiq is supporting with blockchain-specific insights, knowledge of real-world constraints, and implementation.

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The team is currently fundraising to ensure regulatory readiness and complete the team with a CEO and software developers.

Dr Berrang said: “The last few years have seen a near-exponential growth in blockchain transactions. While many of these are legitimate, blockchains are attractive to criminals as funds can be moved very quickly to other jurisdictions. Our work with Nimiq and the creation of SynapTrack is addressing this black spot, and will enable more effective regulation, making the whole ecosystem of blockchain safer and more trustworthy.”

With the financial market and cybersecurity industry converging, cryptocurrency is here to stay.

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Bitcoin drops to $63,000 as U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran

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Bitcoin drops to ,000 as U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $65,000 before pulling back to $64,700 as the Iran conflict continued to escalate through Saturday.

Iranian state media reported at least 70 killed in its Hormozgan province, per Aljazeera, including a strike on an elementary school. Israel activated air raid alerts after detecting fresh missile launches from Iran.

Trump told the Washington Post that “all I want is freedom for the people.” NATO said it was “closely following” developments, China urged an immediate ceasefire, and Turkey offered to mediate.

Bitcoin’s inability to hold $65,000 on the bounce suggests sellers remain in control, but the relative stability given the severity of the headlines points to thin weekend order books rather than active selling pressure.

Headline risks persist for BTC traders as the U.S. day progresses.

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What happened earlier

Earlier in the day, BTC neared $63,000 in Saturday trading after the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, pushing the largest cryptocurrency down roughly 3% in a matter of hours and extending what had already been a difficult weekend for risk assets.
The move brought bitcoin to its lowest level since the Feb. 5 crash, when the token briefly dipped below $60,000.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared an immediate state of emergency across all areas of Israel. A U.S. official confirmed American participation in the strikes, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The sell-off follows a well-established pattern. Bitcoin trades 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, while equity and bond markets are closed on weekends.

That makes it one of the only large, liquid assets available for traders to sell when geopolitical risk spikes outside of traditional market hours.

The result is that bitcoin often acts as a pressure valve for broader risk-off sentiment during weekend events, absorbing selling that would otherwise spread across equities, commodities, and currencies if those markets were open.

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The attack risks a wider regional conflict in one of the most economically sensitive parts of the world, following a month-long U.S. military buildup and failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

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Better Cryptocurrency to Buy With $5,000 and Hold Forever: XRP vs. Ethereum | The Motley Fool

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Better Cryptocurrency to Buy With ,000 and Hold Forever: XRP vs. Ethereum | The Motley Fool

Both Ethereum (ETH 6.03%) and XRP (XRP 3.76%) are tried-and-tested blockchains which have survived (and sometimes thrived) for years on end. That means they’re both sturdy enough to be candidates for a big investment, like $5,000, and for holding over the very long term, or even forever.

So which of these two leading coins is the better option for a forever hold?

Image source: Getty Images.

Ethereum has more ways to grow

Forever is a long time, especially for an investment in an emerging sector like crypto. Therefore, an asset’s optionality regarding where it can derive growth is a key factor, as today’s growth drivers might peter out and new ones are likely to emerge.

On that front, Ethereum has plenty of options. It already hosts a large decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem worth more than $53 billion today, powered by a massive stablecoin base of $159 billion. That existing base of capital is a strategic asset because it gives developers and financial institutions a reason to build new products right where liquidity already lives. It also gives investors exposure to many possible growth lanes at once, from the onboarding of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) to the development of new settlement rails for payments between AI agents.

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Ethereum Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-6.03%) $-123.58

Current Price

$1924.97

Another advantage is that Ethereum has a track record of consistently shipping large protocol upgrades. The Pectra upgrade, for example, landed on the mainnet in May 2025, followed by the Fusaka upgrade in December. Two similarly large feature packages are expected for 2026, and they should help to build the chain’s ability to scale up without spiking transaction costs.

If you plan to hold an asset indefinitely, this network’s culture of iterative improvement reduces the risk that its technical capabilities will become irrelevant as emerging opportunities for growth arise. Its habit of attracting and retaining substantial capital also helps prevent that outcome.

XRP has to keep winning specific fights over time

XRP is not a bad crypto asset by any means, but its long-term burden is its far narrower positioning than Ethereum.

Ripple, the coin’s issuer, built the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem as a toolkit of financial technologies to support specific workflows in institutional finance, especially cross-border payments and money transfers, and, more recently, the management of tokenized asset capital. The coin’s value is thus derived from the utility of its ledger.

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That focus could pay off if the financial companies the chain targets like what it’s offering, but it also concentrates risk. Financial institutions move cautiously, and winning them over is a slow, grinding process of catering to their needs and building strong relationships. Their technology adoption process can stall for years, even when the product works, and decision-makers broadly want to adopt the new tech.

To Ripple’s credit, the XRP Ledger includes plenty of features that match institutional requirements and seek to minimize their potential pain points. The network’s authorized trust lines, for instance, let tokenized asset issuers whitelist who can hold their issued tokens, which is a feature that supports regulatory constraints around who can legally custody an asset. Similarly, the ledger supports freezing tokens when suspicious activity appears, which is a control that traditional finance teams tend to expect in regulated asset workflows.

XRP Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-3.76%) $-0.05

Current Price

$1.35

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But holding a coin forever is unforgiving of sustained competitive pressure, which XRP doubtlessly faces. Its competitors include fintech companies and other cryptocurrencies, not to mention the internal tech development capabilities of many of its target users in big banks. So it’ll need to continuously one up the other players in its space if it’s going to grow over the long term, and it’s hard to believe that it’ll win every round that counts.

The verdict

The decision here is about resilience and resources.

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Ethereum’s “grizzled veteran” reputation today stems from surviving numerous shifts in user demand patterns while maintaining a large on-chain capital pool and growing it all the while. Its success or failure in any given crypto market segment is not guaranteed, nor was it in the past, but its constant evolution has ensured that failures are not fatal, and also that missed opportunities aren’t very damaging overall.

XRP, on the other hand, is only just starting to scale up its on-chain capital base; it has only $418 million in stablecoins. Furthermore, while it has succeeded in attracting some financial institutions to its chain, the truth is that its growth trajectory has not yet been seriously tested, and is still finding an appropriate product-market fit. Its real competitive challenges have only just begun.

So if you want a coin to buy with $5,000 and hold forever, pick the asset that can win without needing to be perfect: Ethereum. XRP is still a decent long-term hold, assuming it’s part of a diversified crypto portfolio, but it’s riskier.

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