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Arthur Hayes Warns Bitcoin May Stall Until Liquidity Returns

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Arthur Hayes Warns Bitcoin May Stall Until Liquidity Returns

Key Takeaways:

  • Arthur Hayes ties bitcoin’s outlook to global liquidity, with upside dependent on policy-driven liquidity.
  • Geopolitics create a bearish setup as war risk, deleveraging, and AI-driven stress weigh on markets.
  • Liquidity injections could lift bitcoin once credit stress forces intervention.

Bitcoin Outlook Hinges on Liquidity

Arthur Hayes’ latest market note, titled “No Trade Zone,” signals that bitcoin’s outlook is increasingly tied to global liquidity conditions rather than traditional macro indicators. On April 15, the Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom CIO outlined a cautious stance, citing geopolitical tensions and artificial intelligence-driven economic risks as key constraints. The essay presents BTC as vulnerable in the short term but positioned to respond to future monetary expansion.

Hayes centered his outlook on monetary conditions rather than conventional valuation models. He asked, “Do you believe the quantity or the price of money is more important when valuing bitcoin?” He then answered with a direct thesis:

“I believe the quantity of money determines the price of bitcoin, not its price.”

That view underpins his broader market framework, which expects bitcoin to struggle during periods of forced deleveraging, then strengthen when policymakers expand credit. He tied that dynamic to several geopolitical outcomes involving the Strait of Hormuz, as well as to a domestic economic slowdown driven by job losses among white-collar workers. In Hayes’ view, those pressures could hit credit quality, weigh on banks, and delay any durable crypto rally until authorities supply fresh liquidity to stabilize the system.

War Risk and Credit Stress Threaten Rally

That caution appears clearly in one of the essay’s most specific forecasts. “ Bitcoin might bounce a bit after the situation reverts to the pre-war status quo,” Hayes wrote. “However, the AI agentic deflation bomb still ticks below the surface. Until the Fed provides the liquidity needed to plug the black hole in banks’ balance sheets caused by consumer credit defaults, bitcoin will not meaningfully rise.” He further shared:

“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”

The statement shows that he still sees upside potential, but not before broader financial stress is addressed.

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Hayes also warned that market stress could produce another sharp bitcoin selloff before any recovery takes hold. “As investors de-risk their portfolios because of higher volatility and lower prices, investors sell bitcoin to meet margin calls,” he described, adding: “Only when things get bad enough will bitcoin rise, as expectations of a bailout become the consensus.” In the most extreme scenario, even a liquidity-fueled rally may not last. As Hayes put it: “The rally in bitcoin, inspired by money printing, might be short-lived because the destruction of the Iranian state materially raises the prospect of WW3.” Taken together, the essay presents a conditional forecast: near-term volatility remains high, while any lasting upside still depends on crisis-era money creation.

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Strategy Sells Bitcoin for First Time Since 2022, Dumps 32 BTC to Fund Preferred Stock Dividends

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Strategy Sells Bitcoin for First Time Since 2022, Dumps 32 BTC to Fund Preferred Stock Dividends

Key Takeaways

Why the Sale Matters

The amount is small. Thirty-two coins against a stack of 843,706 BTC represents a fraction of a fraction of the company’s holdings. But the reason for the sale draws attention: proceeds are expected to fund distributions on preferred stock, according to the June 1 Form 8-K filed with the SEC.

Strategy has built its entire identity around accumulation. The company has made more than 110 reported purchases over six years, funded through convertible debt, equity offerings, preferred shares, and operating cash. Selling bitcoin, even 32 coins, runs counter to that positioning.

The Preferred Stock Dividend Picture

Strategy currently carries five series of preferred stock with active dividend obligations. The board declared the following cash dividends on May 30, 2026, all payable June 30:

  • STRF (10.00% Strife): $2.50 per share, quarter ending June 30
  • STRC (Variable Rate Stretch, 11.50%): $0.9583 per share, month ending June 30
  • STRK (8.00% Strike): $2.00 per share, quarter ending June 30
  • STRD (10.00% Stride): $2.50 per share, quarter ending June 30
  • STRE (10.00% Stream): €2.50 per share, quarter ending June 30

The variable rate on STRC was held at 11.50% effective June 1, 2026.

The USD Reserve

Strategy established a U.S. dollar reserve in December 2025, a management-designated liquidity pool intended to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest. As of May 31, 2026, that reserve holds $900 million.

The existence of a $900 million cash reserve makes the decision to sell 32 BTC more notable. The company chose to liquidate a small amount of bitcoin rather than draw down its dollar reserve to cover distributions. Following the file going public, BTC’s price shuddered below $72,000 to an intraday low of $71,866.

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What the Stack Looks Like Now

As of May 31, Strategy holds 843,706 BTC acquired for approximately $63.87 billion at an average purchase price of $75,699 per coin. The firm also sold 801,994 shares of MSTR common stock between May 26 and May 31, generating $128.3 million in net proceeds under its at-the-market offering program. Combined ATM capacity across MSTR and preferred stock programs totals more than $51 billion remaining.

The Accumulation Record

Strategy made its first bitcoin purchase in August 2020 at roughly $11,652 per coin. Outside a minor 704-coin sale in December 2022 for tax purposes, the company has not publicly reported selling bitcoin. The May 26 to May 31 sale brings the total disclosed liquidations to a still-negligible level relative to holdings, but it confirms that preferred stock obligations now represent a real and recurring cost the firm is willing to cover with BTC when needed.

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Fed Gov. Waller Champions Stablecoins and Dismisses CBDCs | PYMNTS.com

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Fed Gov. Waller Champions Stablecoins and Dismisses CBDCs | PYMNTS.com

During a speech Sunday (May 31) in Croatia, Waller said the global spread of stablecoins could increase the influence of U.S. central bank policy.

“Countries that adopt it, it’s like a fixed exchange rate system,” said Waller, whose comments were reported by Bloomberg News. “You are going to import U.S. monetary costs, so it’s broadening the reach of U.S. monetary policy in countries that use more stablecoins.”

Waller made similar remarks last year, the report added, when he argued that he supports stablecoins as they are likely to help the U.S. dollar’s role as a reserve currency, while also calling for clear guidelines around the tokens.

The report added that Waller also criticized central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), arguing there’s nothing that “requires a CBDC and only a CBDC to fix” while also calling them a “solution in search of a problem.”

That’s why “almost every major central bank in the world has just stopped” pushing for CBDCs, Waller said. “They just can’t find a reason for this.”

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Waller added that “only the ECB and the Chinese” are pursuing CBDCs, speaking during a panel led by incoming European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Boris Vujcic.

“Two banks, and nobody in China uses the thing anyway — they like WhatsApp and Alipay, they don’t even use the stupid thing,” he said.

Vujcic pushed back against one of Waller’s claims, the report added, pointing out that there were “21 western central banks” in the euro area that “have decided to go with the CBDC.”

As Bloomberg noted, officials in Europe including ECB President Christine Lagarde have been critical of stablecoins. In a speech earlier this month, Lagarde said that even a euro-denominated version of the stablecoin would place financial stability and monetary-policy transmission at risk.

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In other stablecoin news, PYMNTS wrote last week about recent developments showing that the technology around these coins is working as planned. Now, that report argued, the digital dollar space is heading to a more difficult phase, one measured by whether businesses and consumers can use these assets without added friction, complexity or cost.

“The first challenge was proving that value can move on chain,” PYMNTS wrote. “The next challenge is figuring out how that value becomes economically useful once it moves off chain.”

 

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Bitcoin Futures Hit $42.6B Across 11 Exchanges — Here Is What Open Interest Signals for June

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Bitcoin Futures Hit .6B Across 11 Exchanges — Here Is What Open Interest Signals for June

Key Takeaways

Futures Open Interest Across Exchanges

Total exchange BTC futures open interest stands at roughly $42.6 billion, down sharply from the $90 billion-plus peak reached in early October 2025 when bitcoin traded a hair above $126,000.

Binance leads all venues with 141,100 BTC ($10.40 billion) in futures open interest, accounting for 19.14% of the market, coinglass.com logs show. CME Group holds second position at 102,330 BTC ($7.55 billion), or 13.88% of the total, signaling that institutional participation through regulated futures remains significant even as spot prices have pulled back.

Bitcoin futures open interest as of this weekend on May 31, 2026, via Coinglass.

Gate holds 65,620 BTC ($4.84 billion, 8.9%), Bybit carries 63,860 BTC ($4.71 billion, 8.66%), and MEXC shows 75,980 BTC ($5.60 billion, 10.3%). OKX sits at 44,310 BTC ($3.27 billion, 6%), while the decentralized perps exchange Hyperliquid holds 29,730 BTC ($2.19 billion, 4.03%).

24-hour OI changes worth noting:

  • Bybit dropped 0.69% over 24 hours, the most of any top exchange
  • BingX fell 44.18% in 24-hour OI, a significant flush
  • Gate gained 2.08%, and OKX added 0.63%

The OI-to-24-hour volume ratio for Kucoin reads 9.57, the highest on the tape today, which points to relatively thin volume against its open position stack.

Bitcoin funding rates all exchanges on Sunday morning.
Bitcoin funding rates on all exchanges via Cryptoquant on May 31, 2026.

Bitcoin Options Open Interest

Total BTC options open interest sits near $40 billion, per Coinglass data, a steep pullback from the $65 billion-plus highs logged in late November 2025.

Calls dominate at 59.25% of total options OI, representing 248,395 BTC. Puts account for 40.75%, or 170,837 BTC. A 59/41 split favors upside positioning but is not an extreme imbalance. Twenty-four-hour volume is similarly skewed, with calls at 53.27% (9,120 BTC) against puts at 46.73% (8,000 BTC).

Top Open Interest Contracts on Deribit

The single largest open interest position on Deribit is a bet that bitcoin hits $120,000 by December 2026, with 7,089.4 BTC tied to that contract. Some predictions are aligned with this perspective. The second largest is a protective position sized for a drop to $60,000 by that same date, carrying 6,509.4 BTC, which tells you that not everyone is positioned for a year-end rally.

Two other notable positions sit closer in. Traders hold 5,769.4 BTC on a contract that pays out if bitcoin reaches $80,000 by July 31, 2026, and another 5,657.5 BTC on a contract targeting $90,000 by June 26. Both suggest a cluster of bullish bets aimed at levels well above the current spot before summer ends.

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CME Options: Puts Still Running Heavy

Cryptoquant data on CME options OI stacked by position shows puts consistently outpacing calls since late November 2025, even as BTC’s price has begun recovering from its February 2026 lows near $65,000. That put-heavy posture among CME participants, who tend to be institutional hedgers and asset managers, reflects caution at current price levels rather than conviction in a near-term breakout.

CME’s stacked-by-expiration logs show near-term (1 to 2 months) contracts dominating the current structure, with very limited longer-dated OI compared to the October and November 2025 buildup period.

Max Pain: Deribit, Binance, OKX

Deribit max pain for the June 26, 2026, expiry sits near $77,500 to $78,000, with notional value for that date approaching $9 billion. The furthest-dated expiry shown, March 2027, shows max pain collapsing to roughly $70,000, which would represent a roughly 4.9% move lower from the current price.

Binance max pain for June 26 hits around $85,000, well above spot, with notional value for that date reaching approximately $757 million. The curve climbs from $74,000 near-term to a peak near $85,000 before easing back toward $77,500 for later expirations.

OKX max pain tells a different story. The curve runs relatively flat near $74,000 through June 12 before climbing to approximately $78,000 by late June 26. It then holds between $75,500 and $78,000 through late 2026, before jumping sharply to near $80,500 by March 2027, the highest of the three exchanges for far-dated max pain.

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Max pain theory holds that option sellers, who represent the majority of options market makers, benefit most when the underlying asset expires at the price where the maximum number of contracts finish worthless. With BTC spot at $73,600, the majority of max pain levels across all three exchanges sit above the current price for the June 26 expiry, which some traders read as gravity pulling the price higher going into that settlement.

What Traders Are Watching

The June 26 expiry is the largest single settlement date by notional value across Deribit, Binance, and OKX. Deribit alone shows roughly $8.5 billion in notional value tied to that date. How the price behaves in the days leading up to that expiry could determine whether the bulk of open call positions expire in the money or turn to dust.

CME futures OI remains near $7.55 billion despite the broad decline in total market OI since late 2025, suggesting institutional desks have not walked away from bitcoin exposure. The put-heavy positioning on CME may reflect hedged long strategies rather than outright bearish bets.

Youtuber Warns Bitcoin Bottom Is Not In as Stablecoin Dominance Hits Risk-off Level

Youtuber Warns Bitcoin Bottom Is Not In as Stablecoin Dominance Hits Risk-off Level

Bitcoin traded near $73,840 on May 31, 2026, stuck in a narrow band between $73,412 and $74,110 as technical indicators…

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Youtuber Warns Bitcoin Bottom Is Not In as Stablecoin Dominance Hits Risk-off Level
Bitcoin.com News

Youtuber Warns Bitcoin Bottom Is Not In as Stablecoin Dominance Hits Risk-off Level

Bitcoin traded near $73,840 on May 31, 2026, stuck in a narrow band between $73,412 and $74,110 as technical indicators…

Youtuber Warns Bitcoin Bottom Is Not In as Stablecoin Dominance Hits Risk-off Level
Bitcoin.com News

Youtuber Warns Bitcoin Bottom Is Not In as Stablecoin Dominance Hits Risk-off Level

Bitcoin traded near $73,840 on May 31, 2026, stuck in a narrow band between $73,412 and $74,110 as technical indicators…

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