Crypto
2024 will be a transformative year for cryptocurrencies
Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
With three of the crypto industry’s top players dropping out of the game and the SEC approving
The cryptocurrency market is, by definition, young and disruptive. It appeared discreetly in 2009 with the emergence of bitcoin and has
At an unstoppable pace of innovation, key figures such as Do Kwon (Terra Luna), Sam Bankman-Fried (FTX) and Changpeng Zhao (Binance) rose to prominence in the industry and, in the case of the latter two, began to impose their own logic on cryptocurrency exchange platforms.
However, within the last two years, all three are gone.
The legal cases of Do Kwon and Bankman-Fried were serious enough to land them in the courtroom while Zhao’s departure from Binance made it clear,
The days of legal gray areas in the cryptocurrency space may be drawing to a close and from now on, all market players will have to tread more carefully.
This logic is increasingly being validated on the global cryptocurrency dashboard. During 2023, 42 countries discussed regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies and more than half of them were approved. In the case of the G20 and the world’s largest financial hubs, which includes the 27 member states of the European Union, 83% of countries now have “crypto friendly” legislation.
In Washington, meanwhile, the prospect of exchange-traded funds that track the price of bitcoin (so-called bitcoin ETFs) being approved has become a reality. One of the most important features of ETFs is that they offer investors a more accessible way to invest in bitcoin, bypassing the direct purchase of cryptocurrency (i.e., disregarding the practical challenges) but without losing track of its evolution.
The confluence of all of these factors is transforming the face of crypto and I am convinced that throughout 2024 we will continue to see this industry mature.
We have an expanded and revamped game board in which the focus is shifting away from the “star” players to the overall workings of the game.
Crypto
Elizabeth Warren Says US Enemies Exploiting Crypto To ‘Move Billions’ After Iran Reportedly Uses CoinEx T
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) expressed concerns on Sunday over the potential misuse of cryptocurrencies by America’s adversaries.
Warren Says Crypto Legislation Will Make The Problem Worse
Warren cited a Wall Street Journal report on X detailing how Iran-affiliated entities moved billions in transactions through CoinEx, a cryptocurrency exchange that withdrew from the U.S. after a 2023 lawsuit.
“More evidence that our adversaries exploit crypto to move billions,” the senior lawmaker said.
Warren argued that the cryptocurrency legislation, i.e., the Clarity Act, would make the problem “worse” by creating new loopholes and urged Congress to strengthen the bill before passage.
CoinEx Serving As A Conduit?
The WSJ report noted that CoinEx has played a “growing role” in connecting Iran’s cryptocurrency operations to the global markets, with wallets hosted by the exchange moving more than $3.84 billion over the last 7 years.
The wallets received hacked cryptocurrency that originated with Iran’s Central Bank and were used to transact directly with accounts U.S. officials have since linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the report said.
In 2023, CoinEx was sued by New York Attorney General Letitia James for allegedly conducting business without proper registration in the state of New York.
The exchange didn’t immediately return Benzinga’s request for comment.
Iran Using Crypto To Bypass Sanctions?
Warren has repeatedly flagged concerns that cryptocurrency exchanges are helping move money into and out of Iran.
Nobitex has been under increased scrutiny from U.S. regulators and policymakers for its continued operations during wartime. The platform reportedly handles about 70% of Iran’s cryptocurrency activity and claims to serve roughly 11 million users.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo Courtesy: Bryan J. Scrafford on Shutterstock.com
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi traders assign a 76% probability that bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000, up 35% in recent weeks.
- Polymarket’s $45M annual bitcoin market prices a 64% chance BTC falls to $50,000 or lower before Dec. 31, 2026.
- Kalshi’s $10.3M timeline market gives bitcoin only a 14% chance of crossing $100,000 before January 2027.
Bearish Consensus Builds Across Platforms
The largest signal comes from Kalshi, where a market asking “Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?” now shows a 76% probability favoring the downside. That figure represents a 35% increase in probability in recent weeks. The contract has drawn $54,516 in total trading volume and resolves based on the CF Real-Time Index, using a 60-second average to confirm which threshold is crossed first. If neither is reached by Dec. 31, 2026, the market defaults to “No.”
The result: a strong majority of active traders on Kalshi believe bitcoin tests $50,000 before it sees six figures again.
June Price Range Looks Tight
On Polymarket, a market focused on bitcoin’s June 2026 price range has pulled in $30.3 million in trading volume. With bitcoin trading near $60,000 on Sunday, the crowd gives a 33% chance the price drops to or below $57,500 this month, versus a 29% chance of reaching $62,500 or above. Targets at $67,500 or higher carry odds of 1% or less. A drop to $55,000 carries a 7% probability.
The range reflects a market pricing limited upside in the near term and real downside risk through June 30.
$100K Timeline Looks Distant
Kalshi’s “When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?” market, which has accumulated $10.3 million in trading volume, shows traders see almost no chance of a near-term recovery. The odds of bitcoin crossing $100,000 before July 2026 are below 1%. Before October 2026, those odds sit at 6%. Even extending the window to January 2027 only brings the probability to 14%.
Polymarket’s companion market, “When will bitcoin hit $150k?”, paints a similar picture. With $26.9 million in total volume, traders give the $150,000 milestone less than a 1% chance of being reached by June 30. The year-end December 2026 window carries just 5% odds.
2026 Annual Targets Show Wide Range
Polymarket’s largest active bitcoin market, asking “What price will bitcoin hit in 2026?”, has drawn $45 million in trading volume. It tracks price milestones from Nov. 24, 2025, through Dec. 31, 2026, using Binance’s 1-minute candle data on the BTC/ USDT pair.
Current crowd pricing shows:
- $55,000 or lower: 78% probability
- $50,000 or lower: 64% probability
- $70,000: 67% probability
- $75,000: 50% probability
- $80,000: 36% probability
- $90,000: 20% probability
- $100,000: 10% probability
- $160,000 and above: 1% to 2% probability
The data reflects a market that expects bitcoin to both dip below current levels and potentially recover to the $70,000 range within the year, while viewing anything above $90,000 as a long shot.
$57,500 Floor Gets Priced In
Kalshi’s “How low will BTC get in June?” market has logged $1.7 million in volume. Traders are pricing a 32% chance bitcoin’s trimmed mean price falls below $57,500 before June 30. The odds drop sharply for deeper cuts: 7% for a close below $55,000, and 2% for a move below $52,500.
What the Data Shows
Prediction markets aggregate real money from traders willing to back their views with capital. The consistency across Polymarket and Kalshi, covering several separate contracts and more than $75 million in combined volume, points to a cohesive view: Bitcoin faces meaningful near-term downside, the $100,000 level is not expected to be reclaimed in 2026 by most prediction marketplace participants, and the floor around $50,000 to $55,000 is being actively priced as a realistic outcome before year-end.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $59,500, down roughly 31.5% from the high of the tracking period on the year’s largest Polymarket contract.
After holding them for a few years, you have decided it is time to cash in your cryptocurrency holdings. The problem is, it is so long since you set up the digital wallet which manages them on your laptop, you have forgotten the lengthy access code.
Stressed at the thought of losing thousands of pounds, you search and download a program which promises to recover the 24-word “seed phrase” which gives you access to your cypto assets.
Unfortunately, the program was created by criminals and, once installed, harvests your personal details and passwords, as well as taking images of the documents on your system.
It may sound a niche type of fraud, but it is clearly lucrative enough for criminals to bother setting up fake websites directing people to their dodgy software.
“Scammers are preying on people’s desperation to recover their cryptocurrency wallets,” says Alex Holland, of the HP Security Lab, which found evidence of the fraud. “Perhaps the victim has forgotten the seed phrase used to access their wallet. If you wanted a way of recovering that, you could search ‘free cryptocurrency recovery tool’, which I did, and lo and behold one of these fake malware-laden tools came up in my search results.”
A cryptocurrency wallet is a tool on your computer which allows you to store the keys needed to access the currencies. The wallets generate seed phrases – which can be between 12 and 24 words – which allow you access.
The scam software is hosted on a website that offers to help you get hold of your seed phrase.
One piece of software found by HP Security Lab is called the “Lost crypto wallets finder – cryptocurrency recovery toolkit”. It promises that “this toolkit is invaluable for both new and seasoned users who want to reclaim their assets and don’t lose access to their digital wealth”.
The site which hosts the software is now down.
You will be told you need to download the software to recover your wallet. Once downloaded, the malware will collect information, including passwords from web browsers, documents, photos and other sensitive files.
This information is then packaged on to a Zip file and sent to criminals who may use the details for future frauds.
What to do
If you have trouble remembering your passwords, or where you wrote them down, don’t panic as that is exactly what the fraudsters want. “They’re preying on emotions. They want to take advantage of that moment of vulnerability,” says Holland.
There are legitimate sites which can be used to help recover a seed phrase but you should read online reviews to see whether they are safe.
If you find that you have downloaded malware, remove it using reputable security software. Then quickly reset your passwords, starting with your banking ones.
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