Business
Why Western sanctions aren’t hitting Russia where it would hurt the most: Oil and gas
At the same time as the USA and its allies have hammered Russia’s economic system in response to the invasion of Ukraine, they’ve held again maybe essentially the most highly effective weapon of their arsenal: a complete embargo on oil and fuel.
Blocking power exports and funds to Russia is taken into account by some analysts as the last word step in an escalating sanctions marketing campaign being imposed by the West. An embargo would threaten the very lifeline of the nation’s already tottering economic system.
About half of Russia’s complete income comes from gross sales of oil and fuel, the lion’s share from Western Europe. Slicing off that earnings to the Russian economic system would put monumental strain on President Vladimir Putin.
So why haven’t the U.S. and Europe completed it?
For starters, it could wreak much more hardships on the Russian individuals. And the ache inflicted on odd residents might have the unintended consequence of rallying them behind their chief.
However the broader motive is that Western nations, and significantly the Biden administration, are looking for a cautious stability between punishing Putin and avoiding critical financial and political blowback again residence.
A cutoff of Russia’s power trade would impose extreme penalties for U.S. allies in Europe, at the very least within the close to time period, and for People as nicely.
The disruption of worldwide power markets and the next surge in oil and fuel costs would probably add to inflation that’s already at a 40-year excessive. And authorities efforts to struggle the brand new burst of inflation would threat triggering a recession on the eve of the U.S. midterm elections.
Though the U.S. is essentially power unbiased — it’s the world’s largest producer of oil and liquefied pure fuel — crude oil costs are set in a world market.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine got here at a second of tightening power provides and rising costs. As economies get better from the lengthy pandemic, oil producers have been struggling to maintain up with pent-up demand from customers within the U.S. and elsewhere.
Biden, conscious of the pocketbook influence on customers and his personal low approval rankings, would virtually definitely attempt to restrict the influence of an embargo by releasing the U.S.’ strategic reserves and pushing huge producers like Saudi Arabia to pump out extra oil.
Western allies might even race to complete a brand new nuclear arms treaty with Tehran, releasing up 1,000,000 or so barrels of Iranian oil a day that at the moment are embargoed.
However analysts don’t suppose that may be sufficient.
Russia is among the many world’s prime three producers of oil and pure fuel, and whereas its exports account for a seemingly small 5% of the worldwide market, a full removing of that provide might result in a doubling of power costs, stated Joseph Gagnon, senior fellow on the Peterson Institute for Worldwide Economics in Washington.
Already benchmark petroleum costs have jumped within the final month, climbing above $100 a barrel, an eight-year excessive. American customers in mid-February had been paying on common $3.53 a gallon, a buck greater than only a yr earlier.
Longer-term, analysts fear that an embargo of Russian power might basically reshape the worldwide market alongside geopolitical strains. Russian oil and fuel might find yourself being completely shifted to China, India and different international locations in Asia.
“I feel we’re at risk of seeing a monetary iron curtain being reestablished,” stated Jim Krane, a analysis fellow at Rice College’s Baker Institute in Houston. “If we arrange these obstacles to commerce between Russia and the West once more, after which Russia reorients itself towards pleasant international locations like China, that may very well be a extremely damaging flip of occasions.”
Europe would undergo essentially the most, he added.
“Russia has historically been the power provide hinterland for Europe,” Krane stated. “It’s geographically linked to Europe. It’s obtained improbable east-west commerce routes to Europe. And for these two to lose one another as buying and selling companions, that’s an enormous loss.”
A major wild card is China, the world’s second largest economic system. China and Russia have seemed to be having their closest relations in a long time, however some analysts consider that Chinese language President Xi Jinping was shocked by Putin’s outright invasion of Ukraine.
“I feel Xi feels that he’s been performed [by Putin]. He’s been put in a tough state of affairs,” stated Nicholas Lardy, a China professional on the Peterson Institute.
In consequence, Beijing could restrict its help for Moscow. And within the occasion of an embargo, meaning China could not transcend its present power purchases to assist offset misplaced gross sales to the West.
As a substitute of dividing Western allies as Putin supposed, the Russian invasion has produced extraordinary unity and virtually in a single day settlement on a variety of monetary sanctions and export bans which have led a rising variety of Western firms to shun enterprise or funding in Russia.
Among the new sanctions towards Russia have an actual chunk, significantly the measure freezing a lot of the Russian central financial institution’s $630 billion in reserves held in foreign currency echange.
The West additionally sought to hobble Moscow’s monetary system by ejecting some Russian lenders from SWIFT, the worldwide messaging system that’s used to speak and facilitate funds amongst greater than 11,000 banks.
However the SWIFT and different sanctions concentrating on Russian lenders typically carve out exclusions for transfers involving Russia’s power exports. And the motion towards Russia’s central financial institution additionally doesn’t, in itself, block the nation from exporting and incomes earnings from power provides, and accessing these funds.
Fearful that larger oil and fuel costs will gas Putin’s warfare chest, Ukrainian officers have referred to as for a full embargo of Russian power, which Europe depends on for about 40% of pure fuel — and significantly extra for international locations comparable to Germany, Poland and Bulgaria.
There’s little obvious urge for food to date for such a transfer. But a cutoff of Russian power provides might nonetheless occur — by Russia itself, to punish the West for the opposite sanctions.
Some European leaders may even want Russia make that call, to keep away from being blamed by voters, stated analysts.
“If nothing else, it needs to be his fault,” stated Jonathan Hackenbroich, coverage fellow on the European Council on International Relations in Berlin.
One huge query is how a lot ache and sacrifice odd residents are prepared to soak up if the disaster drags on. That’s true on either side of the Atlantic.
Europe is popping out of peak winter demand for pure fuel, which might carry some aid. The U.S. and different member nations of the Worldwide Vitality Company stated Tuesday they might take part a uncommon coordinated launch of 60 million barrels of strategic oil stockpiles to assist offset disruptions wrought by Russia’s invasion.
After which there’s the problem of the influence on Russia. Embargoes usually are not simply lifted. And over the lengthy haul, an financial breakdown of a nuclear energy is hardly in the very best pursuits of the West and world safety.
“In the long term, it won’t be useful to impress a destabilization of the Russian economic system. We would discover that we have to stabilize the oil and fuel sector in Russia to be able to make sure the financial and political stability of Russia,” stated Antoine Halff, analysis scholar at Columbia College’s Heart on International Vitality Coverage.
He added: “It’s fairly probably that this battle, regardless of the end result is likely to be, goes to be very transformative for the power market and for the world. When the mud settles, I feel the world will look very totally different from what it seems now.”
Business
Lyft says San Francisco overcharged it $100 million in taxes, according to lawsuit
The ride-hailing company Lyft accused San Francisco of overcharging it $100 million in taxes over the last five years in a lawsuit filed last week.
Lyft, which is headquartered in the city, said in the complaint that the fees paid by riders to drivers are not part of the company’s revenue and should not be taxed. The company considers its drivers as customers, not employees, the company said.
“Lyft does not treat drivers as employees for any purpose,” the complaint said. “Lyft serves a broker/middleman role in the transaction between drivers and riders, and as such, its taxable gross receipts must be limited to the amounts charged to drivers for use of its marketplace services.”
Lyft makes the bulk of its money from the fees it charges drivers. It also brings in some revenue from other sources, including subscriptions and advertising.
“Lyft recognizes revenue from rideshare as being comprised of fees paid to Lyft by drivers, not charges paid by riders to drivers,” said the complaint, filed in San Francisco Superior Court.
San Francisco wrongly included driver income as part of Lyft’s revenue when calculating taxes between 2019 and 2023, Lyft said. The company is now seeking refunds for overpaid taxes as well as interest and penalties.
“Lyft doesn’t take operating in San Francisco for granted and we love serving both riders and drivers in our hometown city,” the company said in a statement. “We believe the city is incorrect with how it calculated our gross receipts tax. … We filed this lawsuit to help correct this issue.”
Lyft called San Francisco’s tax methodology “distortive” and is waiting for a formal response from the city.
“We will review the complaint and respond accordingly,” said Jen Kwart, a spokesperson for the San Francisco city attorney.
This isn’t the first time a business has disputed a high tax bill from San Francisco. Last year, Detroit-based automaker General Motors sued the city, seeking to recoup more than $100 million in back taxes, claiming the taxes were improperly calculated.
The Lyft lawsuit comes amid debate over how rideshare drivers should be classified and how gig economy companies such as Lyft and Uber should be taxed. Lyft’s complaint notes that neither the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission nor federal tax authorities consider driver compensation as part of company revenue.
Ride-hailing companies classify their drivers as independent contractors in the United States instead of employees, meaning the companies don’t have to provide workers certain benefits such as sick leave and overtime pay.
Unions fighting for better working conditions say drivers are improperly labeled but lost a legal battle this year in California over the issue. The California Supreme Court upheld a voter initiative known as Proposition 22 that allowed companies such as Lyft to classify their workers as contractors, a law ride-hailing services say is vital to their business model.
Lyft has also faced scrutiny from the federal government over allegations that it made false and misleading statements about how much its drivers would earn. In November, Lyft agreed to pay $2.1 million in civil penalties to resolve the accusations.
Business
Sony Pictures CEO Tony Vinciquerra talks 'arms dealer' strategy, defends 'Spider-Man' spinoffs
When Tony Vinciquerra arrived at Sony Pictures Entertainment in 2017, it was far from business as usual.
The Culver City studio was still reeling from a 2014 cyber attack that exposed employees’ personal information and revealed internal communications, damaging its reputation and leading to major financial losses. Its film studio was in such a slump that Tokyo parent company Sony Corp. took a nearly $1 billion write-down just months before Vinciquerra was announced as the new chief executive and chairman.
At the time, he was working at private equity firm TPG after a long career at Fox Networks.
“When people approached me about this job, I really wasn’t looking to go back to work full-time, be in the office every day,” said Vinciquerra, 70. “But what was really attractive was the potential.”
Under his leadership, Sony Pictures mounted a comeback.
The film studio revitalized several franchises, including “Jumanji” and “Bad Boys,” churned out its all-important “Spider-Man” movies and started to capitalize on its sister PlayStation video game division by making film and TV series based on that intellectual property. The studio continued to nurture its key shows “Jeopardy” and “Wheel of Fortune,” weathering host changes for both. And it branched out, making acquisitions in the anime market and in movie theaters.
But the studio also had its share of struggles. Like every studio, Sony’s business was hurt by the pandemic and last year’s dual strikes. The company mounted a failed bid for Paramount Global earlier this year. The film studio’s efforts to expand the “Spider-Man” universe into movies about characters other than the titular superhero have had middling box office results.
On Jan. 2, Vinciquerra will step down from his role and hand control to current Sony Pictures Chief Operating Officer Ravi Ahuja in a planned succession that was signaled for months.
Vinciquerra spoke with The Times ahead of his last day to reflect on his more than seven-year tenure at Sony Pictures and what’s to come for him. This conversation has been edited for clarity and length.
Describe the state of Sony Pictures when you arrived in 2017.
The environment of the studios and the business was still vibrating from the hack. There was so much damage done by that in terms of invasion of privacy and sharing of emails. It was palpable. You could feel it even in June of ’17 when I joined.
The financials showed a lot of room for improvement. The fact that Sony owned pictures, music, PlayStation and technology … there’s no other company in the business that had that combination of assets. I didn’t understand why the company wasn’t trading IP back and forth among its units, and they weren’t really working together. So I saw that as a great opportunity; it’s really why I decided to come here.
What were your main priorities when you started in the job?
All of our competitor companies either had started, or were about to start, general entertainment streaming services, and we were under some pressure to do that as well. But we realized pretty quickly that if everybody else is doing that — all seven or eight of our competitors were doing that — why should we? Knowing that they would be fighting tooth and nail to get subscribers, why wouldn’t we just be the arms dealer to supply the weapons for those streaming services to fight each other and thereby improve our business?
We also, at the time, had 110 cable networks. And it was pretty clear that that business was on the downslope. So we set a strategy to get out of that business for the most part, except in markets where cable networks are still doing really well, which is Latin America, Spain and India.
Looking back at what’s happened with all the streamers, the arms dealer decision looks pretty prescient now.
It was pretty obvious, and also the cable network decision was pretty obvious. And really, what’s going on in the business today, most of the streaming services will become profitable, but the cable networks are going in the wrong direction, and that’s not going to change. That’s really the issue for our colleague companies.
How do you feel about the future for anime?
We haven’t rolled Crunchyroll out in the entire world yet, so we still have quite a ways to go. The audience for anime is violently passionate — violent in a good way, not violent in a bad way. They are the most passionate audience ever. It’s got a great future. And unfortunately, others have noticed now and are starting to get into the business. Netflix and Hulu are starting to get in the business and raise the cost of product for us. But, you know, that comes with success.
Part of your tenure included the strikes, and you’ve commented before on how you feel the contract terms from the unions are increasing costs and forcing productions out of the U.S. Do you think the new California film tax credit proposal will change things?
I don’t think the California change will really impact [the situation] because it still doesn’t cover above-the-line actors, it doesn’t cover casting, and it’s still a very difficult process to get done in California.
Not only did the union deals raise costs, but California raises costs as well, just the regulations and the hoops that you have to jump through to get production done here. My suggestion would be, as I’m leaving this job, is that they take a real hard look at the program and the restrictions on the business and and try to figure that out.
How do you feel about the performance of the film studio during your tenure?
We’ve had mostly very, very good results. Unfortunately, [“Kraven the Hunter”] that we launched last weekend, and my last film launch, is probably the worst launch we had in the 7 1/2 years so that didn’t work out very well, which I still don’t understand, because the film is not a bad film.
But we’ve been very successful. We’ve beat our budgets every year I’ve been here, even through strikes and COVID, and max bonuses several of the years for all the employees. It was a good run, and the film studio was a big part of it.
Going back to “Kraven the Hunter,” and Sony had “Madame Web” earlier this year, which also underperformed …
Let’s just touch on “Madame Web” for a moment. “Madame Web” underperformed in the theaters because the press just crucified it. It was not a bad film, and it did great on Netflix. For some reason, the press decided that they didn’t want us making these films out of “Kraven” and “Madame Web,” and the critics just destroyed them. They also did it with “Venom,” but the audience loved “Venom” and made “Venom” a massive hit. These are not terrible films. They were just destroyed by the critics in the press, for some reason.
Do you think that the “Spider-Man” universe strategy needs to be rethought?
I do think we need to rethink it, just because it’s snake-bitten. If we put another one out, it’s going to get destroyed, no matter how good or bad it is.
How do you feel about the state of the industry going into 2025?
There’s a period of asset readjustment coming. It’s going to be for the next year and a half to two. I think it’s going to be a little bit chaotic. The one thing we do know for sure is that the demand for entertainment is not going down. It’s becoming slightly different. But once all of these companies get to the point where they’re stable, they’ll have a great run ahead of them.
2026 is going to be a great year in the film business. And the television business is still perking along, and our market share keeps going up, so we’re very content there. And then we’re looking at other businesses. The film and TV business are probably not going to be great growth businesses, but we’re looking at other things. We have Crunchyroll, we have Alamo Drafthouse and we’re looking at location-based entertainment projects. I’m pretty comfortable with where the company is right now. It’s very stable, relative to the rest of the business.
What made Sony interested in the Alamo Drafthouse deal?
It’s a very different, very unique concept for viewing a film. It’s a very small business. So we have to grow into the markets that are important to domestic box office.
Alamo, even though it only has 41 locations, has 4.5 million loyalty program members, so we have a built-in way to talk to their customers. That’s going to be a very, very big advantage of it for us in the future. And secondly, the customer profile of Alamo Drafthouse is not terribly dissimilar to Crunchyroll. So we’ll use it to promote Crunchyroll, and we’ll also use it in a lot of other ways. It was not a big cash outlay, but the results of what we’re going to gain from this by having a view of our customers’ likes and dislikes will benefit us greatly in the long run.
After you step down, you’ll be moving into an advisor role for 2025. What does that role look like?
I’m here to answer questions, and I’ll be doing some work with Sony Tokyo, but I’ll be in a different office, hidden away so nobody can find me. I don’t know. We’ll see how it works out.
What are your plans for the future?
I don’t know yet. I’ve had a lot of outreach from private equity firms and and other investment-oriented companies. I’m not going to think about it until after the holidays. But most likely will involve some return to private equity or investment companies, but not for sure.
How would you describe your legacy at Sony Pictures?
Where I get my psychic reward is helping people to do their jobs better and get better in their careers, and that’s really how I judge how well I do. The second part of that corollary is to leave a place better than I found it. And I think I’ve done that most every place I’ve been at. I like to fix things and that’s really how it all comes together.
I think I’m leaving the place in a better place, but time will tell. It feels like it’s a very stable business, and I think that’s the legacy.
Business
After court loss, Albertsons and Kroger trade accusations over demise of mega-grocery-chain deal
When Kroger and Albertsons announced plans in 2022 to team up on what would be the largest supermarket merger in U.S. history, the two grocery store chains highlighted their shared values.
Now their relationship has turned sour, with each side blaming the other for the demise of what would have been a landmark deal.
A day after a federal judge temporarily halted the merger, Albertsons said Wednesday that it’s scrapping the controversial pairing and suing Kroger, alleging that the chain failed to do enough to win over regulators.
Once partners, the grocery chains are now accusing each other of breaching the merger agreement and acting in their own interests.
The fallout between Kroger and Albertsons and the failed merger raise fresh questions about the future of their businesses and the effect on people who shop at their stores. The companies, which have a big presence in California and nationwide, banked heavily on the benefits of joining forces to better compete with the likes of Walmart, Costco and Amazon.
“Anytime you get these two companies fighting with each other, that’s money that could be used for innovation and to better position themselves in the market,” said Christine Bartholomew, a law professor at the University at Buffalo.
The legal battle between the major grocery chains is the latest development in what has been a tumultuous two years for Albertsons and Kroger as they tried to win government approval for their megamerger. In February, the Federal Trade Commission sued to block Kroger’s proposed $24.6-billion acquisition of Albertsons because of concerns that it would eliminate competition, drive up food prices and harm workers.
If the merger had been approved, the two supermarket chains would have run more than 5,000 stores in 48 states, according to the FTC’s lawsuit. Albertsons owns the well-known brands Pavilions, Safeway and Vons. Ohio-based Kroger operates Ralphs, Food4Less, Fred Meyer, Fry’s, Quality Food Centers and other popular grocery stores.
The FTC’s lawsuit set the stage for a three-week trial that kicked off in a federal courtroom in Oregon over the summer. The trial featured testimony from the grocery store chains’ executives, FTC lawyers, union leaders and antitrust experts.
To address concerns about reducing competition, Kroger and Albertsons said they would sell more than 570 stores to C&S Wholesale Grocers. That plan included offloading 63 California stores, including some in Los Angeles and Huntington Beach.
The fate of those stores is unclear. Albertsons didn’t respond to questions about whether they planned to keep or close the California stores. During the trial, Albertsons said it might have to lay off workers and shutter stores if the merger didn’t go through.
The grocery chains, though, failed to convince U.S. District Court Judge Adrienne Nelson, who on Tuesday issued a preliminary injunction blocking the merger, finding that it would quash competition and leave consumers in many parts of the country without meaningful choices when shopping for food. Kroger and Albertsons also faced legal battles in other states, including in Washington, where a judge also blocked the deal Tuesday because of competition concerns.
Noting that Kroger and Albertsons are rivals, the federal government contended that reducing competition between the two would drive up grocery prices.
Kroger and Albertsons vowed to invest in lowering grocery prices if the merger went through, but the judge said in her ruling that courts should be skeptical of promises that can’t be enforced and “business realities” might force the grocery chains to alter these plans.
She also said in her ruling that the grocery chains might end up abandoning the merger because of the court order but it doesn’t force them to do so. “Any harms defendants experience as a result of the injunction do not overcome the strong public interest in the enforcement of antitrust law,” she said.
The judge’s decision to block the merger garnered praise from the FTC, the White House and United Food and Commercial Workers locals, which noted that Kroger and Albertsons have “wasted” billions of dollars on what is now a failed merger.
“Now is the time for Kroger and Albertsons executives to honor their promises to consumers and workers under oath during the trials by investing in lower prices, higher wages, and other investments to improve competitiveness,” UFCW local unions, which represent more than 100,000 workers at Albertsons- and Kroger-owned stores, said in a statement.
A variety of factors including competition and worker wages can affect food prices. Tuesday’s ruling, though, suggested that the judge, who cited economic analysis from the federal government’s expert in her 71-page decision, “didn’t really buy the arguments that Kroger and Albertsons were making, that this would be good for consumers,” Bartholomew said.
The legal blows made it more risky for Kroger and Albertsons to continue the merger plan.
Shortly after the ruling, the grocery chains turned on each other.
“Kroger’s self-serving conduct, taken at the expense of Albertsons and the agreed transaction, has harmed Albertsons’ shareholders, associates and consumers,” Tom Moriarty, Albertsons’ general counsel and chief policy officer, said in a statement.
Erin Rolfes, a spokeswoman for Kroger, disputed Albertsons’ claims, calling them “baseless and without merit.”
“This is clearly an attempt to deflect responsibility following Kroger’s written notification of Albertsons’ multiple breaches of the agreement, and to seek payment of the merger’s break fee, to which they are not entitled,” she said in a statement.
Albertsons’ lawsuit filed in the Delaware Court of Chancery is temporarily under seal, according to a statement.
The Boise, Idaho-based company is seeking a $600-million termination fee and billions of dollars in damages from Kroger as part of the lawsuit.
On Wednesday, Kroger’s stock closed up nearly 1% at $61.33, while Albertsons’ stock fell more than 1% to $18.23. Albertsons’ shares have dropped about 20% this year.
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