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Soaring Cost of Diesel Ripples Through the Global Economy

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Soaring Cost of Diesel Ripples Through the Global Economy

Farmers are spending extra to maintain tractors and combines operating. Delivery and trucking corporations are passing larger prices to retailers, that are starting to cross them on to customers. And native governments are paying tons of of hundreds of {dollars} additional to refill college buses. Development prices might quickly rise, too.

The supply is the sudden surge within the worth of diesel, which is quietly undercutting the American and world economies by pushing up inflation and pressuring provide chains from manufacturing to retail. It’s yet another price of the conflict in Ukraine. Russia is a serious exporter of each diesel and the crude oil that diesel is comprised of in refineries.

Automobile homeowners in the US have been shocked by gasoline costs of greater than $4 a gallon, however there was an excellent larger improve within the worth of diesel, which performs a vital position within the world economic system as a result of it powers so many alternative sorts of automobiles and gear. A gallon of diesel is promoting for a median of $5.19 in the US, in keeping with authorities figures, up from $3.61 in January. In Germany, the retail worth has shot as much as 2.15 euros a liter, or $9.10 a gallon, from €1.66 on the finish of February, in keeping with ADAC, the nation’s model of AAA.

Fueling stations in Argentina have begun rationing diesel, jeopardizing one of many world’s main agricultural economies, and power analysts warn that the identical might quickly occur in Europe, the place some companies report spending twice as a lot on diesel as they did a 12 months in the past.

“Not solely is it a historic stage, however it’s elevated at a historic tempo,” stated Mac Pinkerton, president of North American floor transportation for C.H. Robinson, which offers provide chain companies to trucking corporations and different clients. “We now have by no means skilled something like this earlier than.”

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The sharp soar is placing immense strain on trucking corporations, particularly smaller operations which can be already affected by driver shortages and scarce spare components. Many can cross elevated gasoline prices on to their clients solely after just a few weeks or months.

Finally customers will really feel the impact in larger costs for all method of products. Whereas arduous to quantify, inflation will probably be most seen for big-ticket objects like vehicles or residence home equipment, economists say.

“Actually, all the pieces that we purchase on-line or in a retailer is on a truck sooner or later,” stated Bob Costello, the chief economist for American Trucking Associations.

Producers are additionally heavy customers of diesel, resulting in larger costs for manufacturing facility items. Meals will go up in worth as a result of farm gear usually runs on diesel.

“It’s not simply the gasoline we put into pickups, tractors, combines,” stated Chris Edgington, an Iowa corn farmer. “It’s a price of transporting these items to the farm, it’s a price of transporting them away.”

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Firstly of the pandemic, diesel costs dropped steeply as the worldwide economic system slowed, factories shut down and shops closed. However starting in early 2021 there was a pointy rebound as truck and rail visitors resumed. Costs, which elevated fairly steadily final 12 months, picked up momentum in January as Russia massed troops close to Ukraine after which invaded. Low stockpiles of the gasoline, notably in Europe, have added to the value pressures.

“Diesel is probably the most delicate, probably the most cyclical product within the oil business,” stated Hendrik Mahlkow, a researcher on the Kiel Institute for the World Economic system in Germany who has studied commodity costs. “Rising costs will distribute by the entire worth chain.”

Refineries, which flip crude oil into fuels that can be utilized in automobiles and vehicles, have tried to play catch-up on each side of the Atlantic in latest months. However they haven’t been capable of make extra diesel, gasoline and jet gasoline quick sufficient. That’s partly as a result of refineries have closed in Europe and North America lately and extra of the world’s fuels are being refined in Asia and the Center East.

Since January 2019, refinery capability has declined 5 p.c in the US and 6 p.c in Europe, in keeping with Turner, Mason & Firm, a consulting agency in Dallas.

Europe is especially weak as a result of it depends on Russia for as a lot as 10 p.c of its diesel. Europe’s personal diesel manufacturing can be depending on Russia, which is an enormous provider of crude oil to the continent. Some analysts say Europe could have to start rationing diesel as early as subsequent month except the scarcity eases.

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Diesel costs and Germany’s dependence on Russian power have been among the many elements that on Wednesday prompted Germany’s Council of Financial Consultants to chop its forecast for progress in 2022 by greater than half, to 1.8 p.c.

Russian diesel has been flowing to Europe for the reason that invasion final month, however merchants, banks, insurance coverage corporations and shippers are more and more turning away from the nation’s diesel, oil and different exports.

A number of massive European oil corporations have introduced that they’re leaving Russia. TotalEnergies, the French oil large, stated this month that it will cease shopping for Russian diesel and oil by the top of the 12 months.

The marketplace for oil and diesel is world, and firms can normally discover one other supply if their important provider can’t ship. However no oil firm or nation can rapidly make up for the lack of Russian power.

Saudi Arabia, for instance, has not elevated diesel exports as a result of considered one of its largest refineries is present process upkeep. The dominion and its allies in OPEC Plus have additionally refused to ramp up crude oil manufacturing as a result of they’re completely happy to have oil costs keep excessive. Russia belongs to the group and has important sway over its fellow members.

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Christine Hemmel is a supervisor of a trucking firm in Ober-Ramstadt, Germany, that has been in her household for 4 generations. Her household’s enterprise has nearly all of the challenges that medium-size haulers have confronted for the reason that pandemic’s outbreak.

Costs for tires and spare components have typically doubled. The worth of wooden used for freight pallets has soared. Skilled drivers are arduous to search out. AdBlue, a fluid that vehicles require to satisfy emissions laws, prices 4 instances as a lot because it used to and is typically unobtainable, she stated.

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Ms. Hemmel’s firm, Spedition Schanz, which has 35 vehicles, pays twice as a lot for diesel because it did a 12 months in the past, she stated. That interprets into an additional €252,000, or $280,000, in bills each three months. Beneath contracts with clients, the agency can cross on the rise, however with a delay of three months.

“It’s insane the way in which costs are exploding,” Ms. Hemmel stated Tuesday. She anticipated them to stabilize, she stated, however “there is no such thing as a finish in sight.”

Finally, she stated, “we are going to cross it on to our clients, and they’re going to cross it on to the customers.”

European power corporations are scrambling to search out alternate provides of crude as they cease shopping for Russian oil. Among the many challenges is that oil from the Persian Gulf tends to have extra sulfur. Some European refineries can’t course of that oil, and others must make costly modifications to deal with it.

Including to European refineries’ issues, the value of pure fuel has risen so much, growing electrical energy prices. Refineries additionally use pure fuel to make hydrogen, which, in flip, is used to take away sulfur from diesel to scale back air air pollution. The German authorities on Wednesday started making ready to ration fuel if shortages turn out to be acute.

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“It’s one marketplace for the value of diesel,” stated Richard Joswick, head of world oil evaluation for S&P International Platts, an power analysis firm. “Going up in Europe pulls the value of diesel up all over the place.”

Mr. Joswick warned that as refiners rushed to make extra diesel, they might inevitably produce much less gasoline and different merchandise, which might increase power costs throughout the board.

U.S. refineries have exported extra diesel to Europe from New York and the Gulf Coast in latest months. That’s uncommon as a result of these refineries sometimes promote most of their merchandise domestically in the course of the winter, when demand for diesel tends to be larger than in the summertime.

“The Europeans produce as a lot as they’ll, however they’re nonetheless quick,” stated Debnil Chowdhury, a vice chairman and head of Americas Refining at IHS Markit, a analysis agency. “And so the U.S. must fill that hole.’’

U.S. diesel exports to Europe have, in flip, helped drive up costs domestically by decreasing provides. That might turn out to be a much bigger downside. Diesel stockpiles in the US have been dropping over the past 12 months and a half, and are at their lowest ranges in eight years, in keeping with the Vitality Division.

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“There’s some terror” within the diesel market proper now, stated Linda Salinas, vice chairman for operations at Texmark Chemical compounds, a Texas firm that converts imported undistilled diesel — comprised of used cooking oil and waste — right into a renewable jet gasoline. “How typically do we’ve a serious energy like Russia invade one other nation and have a world influence like this? All of the gasoline streams are related.”

Ana Swanson contributed reporting.

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Downtown Los Angeles Macy's is among 150 locations to close

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Downtown Los Angeles Macy's is among 150 locations to close

The downtown Los Angeles Macy’s department store, situated on 7th Street and a cornerstone of retail in the area, will shut down as the company prepares to close 150 underperforming locations in an effort to revamp and modernize its business.

The iconic retail center announced this week the first 66 closures, including nine in California spanning from Sacramento to San Diego. Stores will also close in Florida, New York and Georgia, among other states. The closures are part of a broader company strategy to bolster sustainability and profitability.

Macy’s is not alone in its plan to slim down and rejuvenate sales. The retailer Kohl’s announced on Friday that it would close 27 poor performing stores by April, including 10 in California and one in the Los Angeles neighborhood of Westchester. Kohl’s will also shut down its San Bernardino e-commerce distribution center in May.

“Kohl’s continues to believe in the health and strength of its profitable store base” and will have more than 1,100 stores remaining after the closures, the company said in a statement.

Macy’s announced its plan last February to end operations at roughly 30% of its stores by 2027, following disappointing quarterly results that included a $71-million loss and nearly 2% decline in sales. The company will invest in its remaining 350 stores, which have the potential to “generate more meaningful value,” according to a release.

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“We are closing underproductive Macy’s stores to allow us to focus our resources and prioritize investments in our go-forward stores, where customers are already responding positively to better product offerings and elevated service,” Chief Executive Tony Spring said in a statement. “Closing any store is never easy.”

Macy’s brick-and-mortar locations also faced a setback in January 2024, when the company announced the closures of five stores, including the location at Simi Valley Town Center. At the same time, Macy’s said it would layoff 3.5% of its workforce, equal to about 2,350 jobs.

Farther north, Walgreens announced this week that it would shutter 12 stores across San Francisco due to “increased regulatory and reimbursement pressures,” CBS News reported.

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The justices are expected to rule quickly in the case.

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The justices are expected to rule quickly in the case.

When the Supreme Court hears arguments on Friday over whether protecting national security requires TikTok to be sold or closed, the justices will be working in the shadow of three First Amendment precedents, all influenced by the climate of their times and by how much the justices trusted the government.

During the Cold War and in the Vietnam era, the court refused to credit the government’s assertions that national security required limiting what newspapers could publish and what Americans could read. More recently, though, the court deferred to Congress’s judgment that combating terrorism justified making some kinds of speech a crime.

The court will most likely act quickly, as TikTok faces a Jan. 19 deadline under a law enacted in April by bipartisan majorities. The law’s sponsors said the app’s parent company, ByteDance, is controlled by China and could use it to harvest Americans’ private data and to spread covert disinformation.

The court’s decision will determine the fate of a powerful and pervasive cultural phenomenon that uses a sophisticated algorithm to feed a personalized array of short videos to its 170 million users in the United States. For many of them, and particularly younger ones, TikTok has become a leading source of information and entertainment.

As in earlier cases pitting national security against free speech, the core question for the justices is whether the government’s judgments about the threat TikTok is said to pose are sufficient to overcome the nation’s commitment to free speech.

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Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, told the justices that he “is second to none in his appreciation and protection of the First Amendment’s right to free speech.” But he urged them to uphold the law.

“The right to free speech enshrined in the First Amendment does not apply to a corporate agent of the Chinese Communist Party,” Mr. McConnell wrote.

Jameel Jaffer, the executive director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, said that stance reflected a fundamental misunderstanding.

“It is not the government’s role to tell us which ideas are worth listening to,” he said. “It’s not the government’s role to cleanse the marketplace of ideas or information that the government disagrees with.”

The Supreme Court’s last major decision in a clash between national security and free speech was in 2010, in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project. It concerned a law that made it a crime to provide even benign assistance in the form of speech to groups said to engage in terrorism.

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One plaintiff, for instance, said he wanted to help the Kurdistan Workers’ Party find peaceful ways to protect the rights of Kurds in Turkey and to bring their claims to the attention of international bodies.

When the case was argued, Elena Kagan, then the U.S. solicitor general, said courts should defer to the government’s assessments of national security threats.

“The ability of Congress and of the executive branch to regulate the relationships between Americans and foreign governments or foreign organizations has long been acknowledged by this court,” she said. (She joined the court six months later.)

The court ruled for the government by a 6-to-3 vote, accepting its expertise even after ruling that the law was subject to strict scrutiny, the most demanding form of judicial review.

“The government, when seeking to prevent imminent harms in the context of international affairs and national security, is not required to conclusively link all the pieces in the puzzle before we grant weight to its empirical conclusions,” Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. wrote for the majority.

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Elena Kagan was the U.S. solicitor general the last time a major decision in a clash between national security and free speech came up in a Supreme Court case, in 2010.Credit…Luke Sharrett/The New York Times

In its Supreme Court briefs defending the law banning TikTok, the Biden administration repeatedly cited the 2010 decision.

“Congress and the executive branch determined that ByteDance’s ownership and control of TikTok pose an unacceptable threat to national security because that relationship could permit a foreign adversary government to collect intelligence on and manipulate the content received by TikTok’s American users,” Elizabeth B. Prelogar, the U.S. solicitor general, wrote, “even if those harms had not yet materialized.”

Many federal laws, she added, limit foreign ownership of companies in sensitive fields, including broadcasting, banking, nuclear facilities, undersea cables, air carriers, dams and reservoirs.

While the court led by Chief Justice Roberts was willing to defer to the government, earlier courts were more skeptical. In 1965, during the Cold War, the court struck down a law requiring people who wanted to receive foreign mail that the government said was “communist political propaganda” to say so in writing.

That decision, Lamont v. Postmaster General, had several distinctive features. It was unanimous. It was the first time the court had ever held a federal law unconstitutional under the First Amendment’s free expression clauses.

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It was the first Supreme Court opinion to feature the phrase “the marketplace of ideas.” And it was the first Supreme Court decision to recognize a constitutional right to receive information.

That last idea figures in the TikTok case. “When controversies have arisen,” a brief for users of the app said, “the court has protected Americans’ right to hear foreign-influenced ideas, allowing Congress at most to require labeling of the ideas’ origin.”

Indeed, a supporting brief from the Knight First Amendment Institute said, the law banning TikTok is far more aggressive than the one limiting access to communist propaganda. “While the law in Lamont burdened Americans’ access to specific speech from abroad,” the brief said, “the act prohibits it entirely.”

Zephyr Teachout, a law professor at Fordham, said that was the wrong analysis. “Imposing foreign ownership restrictions on communications platforms is several steps removed from free speech concerns,” she wrote in a brief supporting the government, “because the regulations are wholly concerned with the firms’ ownership, not the firms’ conduct, technology or content.”

Six years after the case on mailed propaganda, the Supreme Court again rejected the invocation of national security to justify limiting speech, ruling that the Nixon administration could not stop The New York Times and The Washington Post from publishing the Pentagon Papers, a secret history of the Vietnam War. The court did so in the face of government warnings that publishing would imperil intelligence agents and peace talks.

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“The word ‘security’ is a broad, vague generality whose contours should not be invoked to abrogate the fundamental law embodied in the First Amendment,” Justice Hugo Black wrote in a concurring opinion.

The American Civil Liberties Union told the justices that the law banning TikTok “is even more sweeping” than the prior restraint sought by the government in the Pentagon Papers case.

“The government has not merely forbidden particular communications or speakers on TikTok based on their content; it has banned an entire platform,” the brief said. “It is as though, in Pentagon Papers, the lower court had shut down The New York Times entirely.”

Mr. Jaffer of the Knight Institute said the key precedents point in differing directions.

“People say, well, the court routinely defers to the government in national security cases, and there is obviously some truth to that,” he said. “But in the sphere of First Amendment rights, the record is a lot more complicated.”

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How the devastating Los Angeles fires could deepen California's home insurance crisis

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How the devastating Los Angeles fires could deepen California's home insurance crisis

When raging wildfires tore through Pacific Palisades and other local communities this week, they not only left a path of destruction reminiscent of a World War II bombing campaign, but threatened to deepen a crisis that has already left hundreds of thousands of Californians struggling to find and keep affordable homeowners insurance.

The multiple fires from Los Angeles to the San Gabriel Valley that have burned thousands of structures since Tuesday — leading to losses that by one early estimate are well into the tens of billions of dollars — hit Southern California as insurers have been dropping customers statewide citing the increasing number and severity of wildfire-related losses.

The Palisades fire alone, which consumed more than 5,000 homes and structures, is being called the most destructive fire ever to hit the city, while the fires across the county are likely to be one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history.

“It’s just an unmitigated disaster,” said Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy group. “Wildfires in January? This just proves insurers’ point that the risk is so significantly increased due to climate change.”

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State Farm, the state’s largest home insurer, announced in March it would not renew 72,000 property insurance policies, while Chubb and its subsidiaries stopped writing new high-value homes with higher wildfire risk — just to name two insurers that pulled back from the California market.

It’s not clear how many homeowners in Pacific Palisades and elsewhere might not have had coverage, but at least some homeowners reported that insurers had not renewed their policies before the disaster struck. Actor James Woods, who lost his home in the Palisades fire, tweeted Tuesday that “one of the major insurances companies canceled all the policies in our neighborhood about four months ago.”

State Farm last year told the Department of Insurance it would not renew 1,626 policies in Pacific Palisades when they expired, starting last July.

A spokesperson for State Farm declined to comment on the decision but said: “Our number one priority right now is the safety of our customers, agents and employees impacted by the fires and assisting our customers in the midst of this tragedy.”

The situation has left many homeowners in neighborhoods at high wildfire risk with little choice but to seek relief from the California FAIR Plan, an insurer of last resort that sells policies with lesser coverage. The policies cover losses up to $3 million to a dwelling and its contents caused by certain hazards, such as fire, but do not include personal liability and other protection that are typically offered by private insurers.

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The FAIR Plan has seen its policies grow from a little over 200,000 in September 2020 to more than 450,000 as of last September. That has roughly tripled its loss exposure to $458 billion over the same period. Pacific Palisades has one of the state’s highest concentrations of FAIR Plan policy holders, with the insurer estimating its exposure in the neighborhood at $5.89 billion.

JP Morgan analysts estimate that total L.A. County losses could be close to $50 billion, while the losses insurers will have to pay could top $20 billion. Another estimate puts the losses even higher.

Such losses could cause insurers to exit the market completely, which Tokio Marine America Insurance Co. and Trans Pacific Insurance Co. said in April they would do in not renewing 12,556 homeowners.

The losses also could prompt insurers to further raise premiums, even though some insurers already have been granted big rate hikes, such as a 34% increase Allstate received last year.

Denise Rappmund, senior analyst at Moody’s Ratings, said, “These events will continue to have widespread, negative impacts for the state’s broader insurance market — increased recovery costs will likely drive up premiums and may reduce property insurance availability.”

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Should insurers further withdraw from the market, that would put additional pressure on the FAIR Plan, which is is backed by the state’s licensed insurers, such as State Farm, who have to pay claims if they exceed the FAIR Plans reserves, reinsurance and catastrophe bonding. The insurers also can assess their own policyholders surcharges in the billions of dollars to bail out the plan under regulations put in place last year by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara as part of his Sustainable Insurance Strategy to help the crippled market.

It’s unclear whether the plan will be able to absorb the losses like it did after the 2018 Camp fire that destroyed the town of Paradise in North California. That conflagration was the single costliest natural disaster in the world that year with $12.5 billion in covered losses and $16.5 billion in total losses, according to the reinsurance firm, Munich RE.

“This further complicates an already complicated and hardened market,” Lara said of the fires, in an interview with The Times.

Nonetheless, Lara’s reforms seek to ensure the FAIR Plan remains solvent and to make it more attractive for insurers to write policies in fire risky neighborhoods now being absorbed by the program. He said the regulations should encourage insurers to write more homeowners policies, and if not, they can be adjusted. “I feel very confident,” he said.

For the first time, California insurers can use so-called “catastrophe models” in setting their rates. Instead of largely relying on past claims data, the computer programs attempt to better refine an insurer’s risk by taking into account a multitude of variables that affect a property’s likelihood to suffer a loss.

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The other major policy change allows insurers to charge California homeowners for the cost of reinsurance they buy from other insurers to limit their losses during huge catastrophes, such as wildfires and floods. This cost shift to policyholders is common elsewhere but a big change for California, where it will raise premiums.

In return for those concessions, insurers will have to write insurance in high-risk wildfire neighborhoods equivalent to 85% of their market share, meaning an insurer with a 10% statewide market share would have to cover 8.5% of the homes in such neighborhoods — a target they have at least two years to reach. Lara’s plan has been blasted by the Los Angeles group, Consumer Watchdog, which says the regulations lack teeth in actually requiring insurers to meet the coverage goals.

“The Sustainable Insurance Strategy is not a magic wand. It’s a set of incentives,” Bach said. “At the end of the day, insurers are always still going to analyze, ‘Are we going to make money here or not?’”

How much this week’s fires will disrupt the already troubled insurance market depends, of course, on how big a disaster they are — but all indications are that insurers will have to absorb billions of dollars of claims given the number of homes destroyed, especially in the wealthy enclave of Pacific Palisades, where the average home is valued at about $3.5 million by Zillow.

Insurance industry experts say a clearer picture on the estimated losses will only come after adjusters have time to review submitted claims.

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“I think it’s going to be 45 days before we know what the true damage is,” said Max Gilman, president of California personal lines at the brokerage HUB International.

Whatever the final cost, Gilman noted that the fires came after a couple of relatively light fire seasons — though in November the Mountain fire in Ventura County scorched more than some 20,640 acres and destroyed more than 130 homes amid parched conditions. That made it at the time the third most destructive fire in Southern California in a decade.

“I think what’s currently transpiring is going to be of grave concern for the future,” he said. “I feel like we we took three steps forward to take five steps back.”

Denne Ritter, a vice president with the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn. trade group, said it is too early to assess the impact of the fires on Lara’s reforms, especially given how they are just being put in place. Only one catastrophe model has been submitted for review to regulators, while the reinsurance regulation released last month still awaits final approval by the Office of Administrative Law.

“What the insurance industry wants is a healthy market in California where we can compete for business, as we have historically. And the number one priority right now is helping our customers get the resources they need to rebuild their lives and restore their property,” she said.

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However, she noted that Mercury Insurance — which recently announced it started writing insurance again in Paradise — and Farmers Insurance, which said last month it is increasing the number of new home policies it will write, have “certainly made moves indicating a more bullish approach on the market.”

Allstate also has said it will resume writing new policies once Lara’s reforms are in place and it can get rates that fully cover its costs.

But all those pronouncements came before this week’s catastrophic fires.

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