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In 'generational moment,' Port of L.A. faces shifting winds in business and politics

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In 'generational moment,' Port of L.A. faces shifting winds in business and politics

The Port of Los Angeles has long been the single busiest seaport in the Western Hemisphere, employing thousands of Southern Californians and playing a critical role in the vast supply chain that underpins both the California economy and that of the United States as a whole.

Together with neighboring Port of Long Beach in the San Pedro Bay, it handles a whopping 40% of all the container traffic from continental Asia.

But today, as Port of Los Angeles director Gene Seroka puts it, this important but largely anonymous institution faces a “generational moment,” a set of challenges crucial for the regional economy and the well-being of many Americans.

Seroka has been leading the seaport since 2014. He recently sat down with the L.A. Times to discuss key issues involving the port.

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We’ve been getting signs of slowing consumer spending. How busy have you been so far this year, and what do you see ahead?

It’s been an extraordinary year. For the first six months of the year, our business is up more than 14%, driven mainly by the strength of the U.S. We also have a dock workers’ negotiation on the East Coast, a drought in the Panama Canal and security issues in the Red Sea leading up to the Suez Canal. Many importers and exporters have told me that fractionally, they’ve shifted some of their allocation our way to hedge against any worsening in those three areas.

You’ve made many trips to Washington, including for three meetings with President Biden. What might changes in the White House and Congress mean for future funding and support?

Well, that remains to be a pretty big question mark. We’ve had unprecedented progress in the area of focus on ports, and a lot of it was brought to light because of the supply chain crunch that we saw during COVID. We saw the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that was passed, the Inflation Reduction Act, and now the Environmental Protection Agency call for applications on the Clean Ports Program, which should be announced sometime in the fourth quarter of this year.

What I’ve seen so far is that in the last three years, we’ve submitted applications for more than $1 billion in [federal and state] grant money, and we’ve earned over $380 million. That’s probably our best three-year period that I can recall.

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Depending on what happens in November, can things shift?

The infrastructure law runs through ’26, but based on my own experience, yes. I think we could see more of the same type and better support, or we could see a complete reverse.

What would create that?

Changing policy, changing focus away from the state of California. I don’t want to speculate, but I have seen what it looked like — the lack of access, the lack of any meaningful legislation like the infrastructure act. So, again, I don’t want to speculate, but we’ve had a pretty good run here. This industry, still to this day, even with all the technology and the global trade, it’s still a relationship-based business. And it still is relationships that carry us in Washington and Sacramento today.

And how was your access to and relationship with the Trump administration?

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It was very limited, if nonexistent.

What about tariffs? Biden recently increased tariffs on a wider array of Chinese goods — steel, EV cars, solar cells. And there’s potential for even higher, broader tariffs to come, especially if Trump wins.

Dating back to 2018, the previous administration implemented tariffs on a variety of goods originating from China. Those tariffs were met with retaliatory tariffs that really were very impactful on a negative side for a number of American companies, including the agricultural sector. Flash forward, the most recent tariffs that the Biden administration put in were on $18 billion worth of goods. It’s a very narrow, targeted approach to tariffs. So I don’t see that impacting the Port of Los Angeles. What we’ve seen with tariffs policy, and in some cases rhetoric, is that here at the Port of Los Angeles, the portfolio with China is now down to about 45% [from 57% three years ago].

How much potential do other countries around the Pacific Rim have for becoming alternatives to China in terms of manufacturing?

No one can replace China as a manufacturing hub. But we’ve made up that difference by capturing cargo from other markets, and specifically Southeast Asia – Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, to name three. We’ve also seen growth in manufacturing in Mexico. And while some folks would say, OK, you’re building up more products in Mexico to come across the border by truck or rail, but we’re also feeding components into the maquiladora areas like Mexicali here in Baja, California. So there’s still a market for us to be a strong player, especially as Mexico continues to shine in the manufacturing community.

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What about India, which seems to be rising in terms of manufacturing in the global economy?

It is. And I was just in India back in January. I had an opportunity to visit with Ambassador Eric Garcetti. What I can tell you is in the most recent full calendar year, China exported some 260 million 20-foot equivalent units of cargo. India exported 17 million. So while what we see there is opportunity and there is great talent, manufacturing in the same vein that we see in Asia may not happen overnight.

In the early months of the pandemic there were, at one time, more than a hundred cargo ships stuck at sea waiting to berth. What’s to prevent something like that happening again in San Pedro Bay?

Well, that’s job No. 1, in my view. What we did learn with the benefit of history is that this port must remain as a transit facility and not as a warehouse. Unfortunately, back in 2021 and 2022, a number of large importers used this port to store containers. Unbeknownst to us, they had deals with shipping lines to make sure that they could hold their containers here at the port for little to no charge. Once we diagnosed that by doing some data mining through our own system, the Port Optimizer, we were able to start moving cargo again.

No one was trying to hurt us, nothing sinister was taking place. The American consumer was simply buying at a pace that we’ve never witnessed. And importers had to get as much cargo here as quickly as possible, and it was just clogging up the works.

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So now the next thing is going to be, how do we make sure that we can anticipate what’s going to take place next in the supply chain? A lot of that comes with data. I’ve been to Asia five times this year so far, and I’ve been to Europe once. I’m spending a lot of my energy talking to importers and exporters, service providers, leadership at the C-suite level to try to make sure I anticipate as much as possible, what’s happening now and what we can expect in the future.

More recently, we all read about the accident in Baltimore last March when a large container ship crashed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge. What’s the potential for such a mishap here, and what have you done to reduce the risk?

Well, we work hard every day at this, led by our head of public safety, Port Police Chief Tom Gazsi. And while vessel engine failures happen, it’s about how we create protocol to prevent that from going any further. We put a minimum of two tugboats on every ship that comes into this port. And for the larger ones, those workhorse vessels, you’ll likely see four tugs tied to a ship in the event of a power failure or engine failure. Those tugs go into action, put the rear thrusters on, slow down and stop that ship as it’s moving.

Also, our bridge has its legs on land. We’ve got rock formation under the channel near the stanchions to prevent a ship from getting anywhere close to it.

What is the longer-term impact of automation and AI at the port? Do you see that as threatening jobs?

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Here in Southern California, out of our 13 marine terminals right now, we have three that are automated, and there may be more in the future. The automation or robotics that we see on our marine terminals today really is comprised of the land-side equipment, whether it’s to move containers onto truck chassis or onto rail cars, or for retrieval when the truckers come into the terminals to pick up their imports or drop off their exports.

But it’s our belief that while technology is moving faster than ever, we cannot leave the workforce behind. And that’s part of the motivation of why we just cut the ribbon on a new mechanics training facility on Terminal Island. That’s going to up-skill and re-skill longshoremen members so they can work on newer and greener equipment, and in some cases, automated machines.

Secondly, we have designated 20 acres of property here for the nation’s first workforce training campus dealing with goods movement — to bring people in who need training on trucking, warehousing, even coding [and] technology such as artificial intelligence that will be important to this port in the future.

What are the biggest environmental challenges at the Port of L.A.?

There’s nothing more that we want to see than for ourselves, the Port of Long Beach and others to reach this aspiration of a zero-emission port operation. But there are a lot of things that have to take place. We’ve got to be able to accelerate the technology, make it affordable for small businesses to be able to join.

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Please know that of the 20,000 trucks that are registered to do business at the port, more than half are small businesses. We’ve got to make the barriers to entry as plausible as possible. We also have to support them by creating the infrastructure necessary to run these new and cleanest trucks that are possible.

For example, there are 7,500 gasoline stations in the state of California. There are only 46 hydrogen fueling stations. And according to their oversight board, they only work about half the time. There are only 92 high-speed heavy duty truck chargers in the country, less than two per state.

Now, we’ve also been working closely with the shipping industry for the past several years on cleaner and renewable fuels. We call this our green shipping corridor strategy. If we could reduce the emissions from ships moving from our largest trading partner in China, from Shanghai to the ports of L.A. and Long Beach, if we can reduce that emissions by 10%, that would be the equivalent of all the emissions in the Port of Los Angeles for an entire year.

Finally, let me ask you about jobs at the port. What kinds of skills do you look for now and will be looking for in the future?

The interesting thing about this port complex is there are a variety of jobs and skill sets that are always in demand. For example, we talk a lot about the people that actually move the cargo — the longshoremen, the marine clerks, the truck drivers and warehouse folks, the mechanics are all vital to this port. And that’s part of the motivation for us setting up that mechanic center as well as the broader goods movement training campus that I spoke of on the 20 acres of property at the Port of Los Angeles.

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The other piece is that you’ve got a growing community here in this harbor enclave. There are 260,000 residents, a lot of young kids going through school that see this port every day and want to be a part of it. We need engineers, naval architects and others that have expertise [who can] design, build and create for our industrial sector of marine terminals and other cargo moving interests.

And the next big thing obviously will be to put an even deeper emphasis on folks with information technology capabilities, whether it’s a young kid who knows technology because they play video games or those who have taken interest in coding, all the way to folks who are going now to college and grad school studying the sciences to be more involved in technology.

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The justices are expected to rule quickly in the case.

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The justices are expected to rule quickly in the case.

When the Supreme Court hears arguments on Friday over whether protecting national security requires TikTok to be sold or closed, the justices will be working in the shadow of three First Amendment precedents, all influenced by the climate of their times and by how much the justices trusted the government.

During the Cold War and in the Vietnam era, the court refused to credit the government’s assertions that national security required limiting what newspapers could publish and what Americans could read. More recently, though, the court deferred to Congress’s judgment that combating terrorism justified making some kinds of speech a crime.

The court will most likely act quickly, as TikTok faces a Jan. 19 deadline under a law enacted in April by bipartisan majorities. The law’s sponsors said the app’s parent company, ByteDance, is controlled by China and could use it to harvest Americans’ private data and to spread covert disinformation.

The court’s decision will determine the fate of a powerful and pervasive cultural phenomenon that uses a sophisticated algorithm to feed a personalized array of short videos to its 170 million users in the United States. For many of them, and particularly younger ones, TikTok has become a leading source of information and entertainment.

As in earlier cases pitting national security against free speech, the core question for the justices is whether the government’s judgments about the threat TikTok is said to pose are sufficient to overcome the nation’s commitment to free speech.

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Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, told the justices that he “is second to none in his appreciation and protection of the First Amendment’s right to free speech.” But he urged them to uphold the law.

“The right to free speech enshrined in the First Amendment does not apply to a corporate agent of the Chinese Communist Party,” Mr. McConnell wrote.

Jameel Jaffer, the executive director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, said that stance reflected a fundamental misunderstanding.

“It is not the government’s role to tell us which ideas are worth listening to,” he said. “It’s not the government’s role to cleanse the marketplace of ideas or information that the government disagrees with.”

The Supreme Court’s last major decision in a clash between national security and free speech was in 2010, in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project. It concerned a law that made it a crime to provide even benign assistance in the form of speech to groups said to engage in terrorism.

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One plaintiff, for instance, said he wanted to help the Kurdistan Workers’ Party find peaceful ways to protect the rights of Kurds in Turkey and to bring their claims to the attention of international bodies.

When the case was argued, Elena Kagan, then the U.S. solicitor general, said courts should defer to the government’s assessments of national security threats.

“The ability of Congress and of the executive branch to regulate the relationships between Americans and foreign governments or foreign organizations has long been acknowledged by this court,” she said. (She joined the court six months later.)

The court ruled for the government by a 6-to-3 vote, accepting its expertise even after ruling that the law was subject to strict scrutiny, the most demanding form of judicial review.

“The government, when seeking to prevent imminent harms in the context of international affairs and national security, is not required to conclusively link all the pieces in the puzzle before we grant weight to its empirical conclusions,” Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. wrote for the majority.

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Elena Kagan was the U.S. solicitor general the last time a major decision in a clash between national security and free speech came up in a Supreme Court case, in 2010.Credit…Luke Sharrett/The New York Times

In its Supreme Court briefs defending the law banning TikTok, the Biden administration repeatedly cited the 2010 decision.

“Congress and the executive branch determined that ByteDance’s ownership and control of TikTok pose an unacceptable threat to national security because that relationship could permit a foreign adversary government to collect intelligence on and manipulate the content received by TikTok’s American users,” Elizabeth B. Prelogar, the U.S. solicitor general, wrote, “even if those harms had not yet materialized.”

Many federal laws, she added, limit foreign ownership of companies in sensitive fields, including broadcasting, banking, nuclear facilities, undersea cables, air carriers, dams and reservoirs.

While the court led by Chief Justice Roberts was willing to defer to the government, earlier courts were more skeptical. In 1965, during the Cold War, the court struck down a law requiring people who wanted to receive foreign mail that the government said was “communist political propaganda” to say so in writing.

That decision, Lamont v. Postmaster General, had several distinctive features. It was unanimous. It was the first time the court had ever held a federal law unconstitutional under the First Amendment’s free expression clauses.

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It was the first Supreme Court opinion to feature the phrase “the marketplace of ideas.” And it was the first Supreme Court decision to recognize a constitutional right to receive information.

That last idea figures in the TikTok case. “When controversies have arisen,” a brief for users of the app said, “the court has protected Americans’ right to hear foreign-influenced ideas, allowing Congress at most to require labeling of the ideas’ origin.”

Indeed, a supporting brief from the Knight First Amendment Institute said, the law banning TikTok is far more aggressive than the one limiting access to communist propaganda. “While the law in Lamont burdened Americans’ access to specific speech from abroad,” the brief said, “the act prohibits it entirely.”

Zephyr Teachout, a law professor at Fordham, said that was the wrong analysis. “Imposing foreign ownership restrictions on communications platforms is several steps removed from free speech concerns,” she wrote in a brief supporting the government, “because the regulations are wholly concerned with the firms’ ownership, not the firms’ conduct, technology or content.”

Six years after the case on mailed propaganda, the Supreme Court again rejected the invocation of national security to justify limiting speech, ruling that the Nixon administration could not stop The New York Times and The Washington Post from publishing the Pentagon Papers, a secret history of the Vietnam War. The court did so in the face of government warnings that publishing would imperil intelligence agents and peace talks.

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“The word ‘security’ is a broad, vague generality whose contours should not be invoked to abrogate the fundamental law embodied in the First Amendment,” Justice Hugo Black wrote in a concurring opinion.

The American Civil Liberties Union told the justices that the law banning TikTok “is even more sweeping” than the prior restraint sought by the government in the Pentagon Papers case.

“The government has not merely forbidden particular communications or speakers on TikTok based on their content; it has banned an entire platform,” the brief said. “It is as though, in Pentagon Papers, the lower court had shut down The New York Times entirely.”

Mr. Jaffer of the Knight Institute said the key precedents point in differing directions.

“People say, well, the court routinely defers to the government in national security cases, and there is obviously some truth to that,” he said. “But in the sphere of First Amendment rights, the record is a lot more complicated.”

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How the devastating Los Angeles fires could deepen California's home insurance crisis

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How the devastating Los Angeles fires could deepen California's home insurance crisis

When raging wildfires tore through Pacific Palisades and other local communities this week, they not only left a path of destruction reminiscent of a World War II bombing campaign, but threatened to deepen a crisis that has already left hundreds of thousands of Californians struggling to find and keep affordable homeowners insurance.

The multiple fires from Los Angeles to the San Gabriel Valley that have burned thousands of structures since Tuesday — leading to losses that by one early estimate are well into the tens of billions of dollars — hit Southern California as insurers have been dropping customers statewide citing the increasing number and severity of wildfire-related losses.

The Palisades fire alone, which consumed more than 5,000 homes and structures, is being called the most destructive fire ever to hit the city, while the fires across the county are likely to be one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history.

“It’s just an unmitigated disaster,” said Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy group. “Wildfires in January? This just proves insurers’ point that the risk is so significantly increased due to climate change.”

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State Farm, the state’s largest home insurer, announced in March it would not renew 72,000 property insurance policies, while Chubb and its subsidiaries stopped writing new high-value homes with higher wildfire risk — just to name two insurers that pulled back from the California market.

It’s not clear how many homeowners in Pacific Palisades and elsewhere might not have had coverage, but at least some homeowners reported that insurers had not renewed their policies before the disaster struck. Actor James Woods, who lost his home in the Palisades fire, tweeted Tuesday that “one of the major insurances companies canceled all the policies in our neighborhood about four months ago.”

State Farm last year told the Department of Insurance it would not renew 1,626 policies in Pacific Palisades when they expired, starting last July.

A spokesperson for State Farm declined to comment on the decision but said: “Our number one priority right now is the safety of our customers, agents and employees impacted by the fires and assisting our customers in the midst of this tragedy.”

The situation has left many homeowners in neighborhoods at high wildfire risk with little choice but to seek relief from the California FAIR Plan, an insurer of last resort that sells policies with lesser coverage. The policies cover losses up to $3 million to a dwelling and its contents caused by certain hazards, such as fire, but do not include personal liability and other protection that are typically offered by private insurers.

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The FAIR Plan has seen its policies grow from a little over 200,000 in September 2020 to more than 450,000 as of last September. That has roughly tripled its loss exposure to $458 billion over the same period. Pacific Palisades has one of the state’s highest concentrations of FAIR Plan policy holders, with the insurer estimating its exposure in the neighborhood at $5.89 billion.

JP Morgan analysts estimate that total L.A. County losses could be close to $50 billion, while the losses insurers will have to pay could top $20 billion. Another estimate puts the losses even higher.

Such losses could cause insurers to exit the market completely, which Tokio Marine America Insurance Co. and Trans Pacific Insurance Co. said in April they would do in not renewing 12,556 homeowners.

The losses also could prompt insurers to further raise premiums, even though some insurers already have been granted big rate hikes, such as a 34% increase Allstate received last year.

Denise Rappmund, senior analyst at Moody’s Ratings, said, “These events will continue to have widespread, negative impacts for the state’s broader insurance market — increased recovery costs will likely drive up premiums and may reduce property insurance availability.”

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Should insurers further withdraw from the market, that would put additional pressure on the FAIR Plan, which is is backed by the state’s licensed insurers, such as State Farm, who have to pay claims if they exceed the FAIR Plans reserves, reinsurance and catastrophe bonding. The insurers also can assess their own policyholders surcharges in the billions of dollars to bail out the plan under regulations put in place last year by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara as part of his Sustainable Insurance Strategy to help the crippled market.

It’s unclear whether the plan will be able to absorb the losses like it did after the 2018 Camp fire that destroyed the town of Paradise in North California. That conflagration was the single costliest natural disaster in the world that year with $12.5 billion in covered losses and $16.5 billion in total losses, according to the reinsurance firm, Munich RE.

“This further complicates an already complicated and hardened market,” Lara said of the fires, in an interview with The Times.

Nonetheless, Lara’s reforms seek to ensure the FAIR Plan remains solvent and to make it more attractive for insurers to write policies in fire risky neighborhoods now being absorbed by the program. He said the regulations should encourage insurers to write more homeowners policies, and if not, they can be adjusted. “I feel very confident,” he said.

For the first time, California insurers can use so-called “catastrophe models” in setting their rates. Instead of largely relying on past claims data, the computer programs attempt to better refine an insurer’s risk by taking into account a multitude of variables that affect a property’s likelihood to suffer a loss.

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The other major policy change allows insurers to charge California homeowners for the cost of reinsurance they buy from other insurers to limit their losses during huge catastrophes, such as wildfires and floods. This cost shift to policyholders is common elsewhere but a big change for California, where it will raise premiums.

In return for those concessions, insurers will have to write insurance in high-risk wildfire neighborhoods equivalent to 85% of their market share, meaning an insurer with a 10% statewide market share would have to cover 8.5% of the homes in such neighborhoods — a target they have at least two years to reach. Lara’s plan has been blasted by the Los Angeles group, Consumer Watchdog, which says the regulations lack teeth in actually requiring insurers to meet the coverage goals.

“The Sustainable Insurance Strategy is not a magic wand. It’s a set of incentives,” Bach said. “At the end of the day, insurers are always still going to analyze, ‘Are we going to make money here or not?’”

How much this week’s fires will disrupt the already troubled insurance market depends, of course, on how big a disaster they are — but all indications are that insurers will have to absorb billions of dollars of claims given the number of homes destroyed, especially in the wealthy enclave of Pacific Palisades, where the average home is valued at about $3.5 million by Zillow.

Insurance industry experts say a clearer picture on the estimated losses will only come after adjusters have time to review submitted claims.

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“I think it’s going to be 45 days before we know what the true damage is,” said Max Gilman, president of California personal lines at the brokerage HUB International.

Whatever the final cost, Gilman noted that the fires came after a couple of relatively light fire seasons — though in November the Mountain fire in Ventura County scorched more than some 20,640 acres and destroyed more than 130 homes amid parched conditions. That made it at the time the third most destructive fire in Southern California in a decade.

“I think what’s currently transpiring is going to be of grave concern for the future,” he said. “I feel like we we took three steps forward to take five steps back.”

Denne Ritter, a vice president with the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn. trade group, said it is too early to assess the impact of the fires on Lara’s reforms, especially given how they are just being put in place. Only one catastrophe model has been submitted for review to regulators, while the reinsurance regulation released last month still awaits final approval by the Office of Administrative Law.

“What the insurance industry wants is a healthy market in California where we can compete for business, as we have historically. And the number one priority right now is helping our customers get the resources they need to rebuild their lives and restore their property,” she said.

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However, she noted that Mercury Insurance — which recently announced it started writing insurance again in Paradise — and Farmers Insurance, which said last month it is increasing the number of new home policies it will write, have “certainly made moves indicating a more bullish approach on the market.”

Allstate also has said it will resume writing new policies once Lara’s reforms are in place and it can get rates that fully cover its costs.

But all those pronouncements came before this week’s catastrophic fires.

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Wildfires Will Deepen Housing Shortage in Los Angeles

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Wildfires Will Deepen Housing Shortage in Los Angeles

Each of the homes burned in the Los Angeles fires is its own individual calamity.

Collectively, the losses — whether in the hundreds or, as is far more likely, in the thousands — will weigh on the city’s already urgent housing shortage.

Fires are still raging, and with 180,000 people under evacuation orders as of Thursday morning, the degree of displacement in the city and its surrounding areas will take time to assess. For the time being, evacuees are holing up in public shelters in Los Angeles County, with friends or family members or in hotels.

But in the coming weeks and months, people whose homes are gone will have to find more stable accommodations while they rebuild. That will not be easy in a metro area that, as of 2022, already had a shortage of about 337,000 homes, according to data from Zillow. The number of homes on the market in Los Angeles was 26 percent below prepandemic norms as of December, according to Zillow.

“One of the biggest challenges ahead will be getting people who lost their homes into permanent, long-term housing,” Victor M. Gordo, the mayor of Pasadena, said on Wednesday. Pasadena, which is battling the Eaton fire, has already lost hundreds of homes.

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The area’s tight rental market is likely to become further strained as many of the thousands of displaced residents turn to rental units, while figuring out their next move. The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Los Angeles, as of Jan. 7, was more than $2,000, according to Zillow.

“You’re going to have a positive shock in demand, and a negative shock in supply, so this automatically means prices go up in the rental markets,” said Carles Vergara-Alert, a professor of finance at IESE Business School in Barcelona, who has studied the effects of wildfires on housing markets.

Any uptick in rental costs would affect tenants across the region, beyond those displaced by the fires, Dr. Vergara-Alert said.

Jonathan Zasloff, who lost his home in Pacific Palisades this week, teaches land use and urban policy at the University of California, Los Angeles law school, and is acutely aware of how his search for interim housing could affect the broader market.

Dr. Zasloff is staying with his brother for the time being, while a friend is putting up his wife and daughter. They evacuated their house, which they had lived in for almost 15 years, around noon on Tuesday, before the official evacuation order was issued for the area. That evening, Dr. Zasloff realized the severity of the crisis when he was watching television and saw a reporter standing on his fire-ravaged block.

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His insurance agent told him it could take two to three years to rebuild his house. His family might try to find a rental in West Los Angeles near UCLA in the meantime, he said.

There aren’t many rentals in that part of the city, Dr. Zasloff said, so students and other renters could be displaced as he, and people like him who lost their homes, move in.

“It’s very possible that this event is going to cause a big increase in homelessness, even though the people who got pushed out of their homes are people of means,” he said.

California has been in the grip of an affordable housing crisis for a decade. Both state and local lawmakers have passed a raft of new laws that aim to make housing cheaper and more plentiful by making it easier to build. In Los Angeles, for instance, Mayor Karen Bass signed an executive order that streamlines permitting for projects in which 100 percent of the units are affordable. In response to state housing reforms, there has been a boom of backyard homes — called accessory dwelling units, or A.D.U.s — that homeowners often rent out for extra income and that have added to the housing stock.

Still, both the city and state remain well behind their housing production goals, and affordability has only continued to erode. The number of apartment units approved by the city of Los Angeles, for example, dipped to a 10-year low in 2024, according to data from the Los Angeles Department of Building and Safety compiled by Crosstown LA, a news site. That downturn in building permitting has raised concern about roadblocks to new housing unit creation.

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“This is a place that had massive affordability challenges last week, and after this week it’s going to be that much more challenging,” said Dave Rand, a land-use lawyer at Rand Paster & Nelson in Los Angeles, who also serves on the board of directors of a statewide affordable housing organization.

After the fires are extinguished and the recovery begins, Mr. Rand said, there is hope that the common cause of rebuilding can be a catalyst for tackling affordability challenges by continuing to make it easier to build housing, particularly affordable rental housing, at a faster pace.

“This is such a devastating event that hopefully it rocks the system to the point where we can get real reform,” he said.

The Los Angeles City Council has aimed to build nearly half a million new units by 2029. But many people trying to rebuild all at once after the fires could lead to higher costs, and slow down the overall production of housing, said Jason Ward, a co-director of the center on housing and homelessness at the RAND Corporation.

A longstanding construction labor shortage in Los Angeles does not help. Andy Howard, a general contractor who has worked across the city for three decades, including in the areas affected by the fires, said many of the subcontractors he work with in the past have left California since the pandemic. And there are not enough young people entering the industry.

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The fires are “going to make it worse,” Mr. Howard said. “It’s going to drive the cost up, for sure.”

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