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How Trump’s Tariffs on China Are Affecting Toy Companies

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How Trump’s Tariffs on China Are Affecting Toy Companies

At the biggest toy industry trade show in the Western Hemisphere this weekend, toy makers, as usual, displayed seemingly endless rows of stuffed animals, action figures and puzzles, hoping to entice retailers to pick their products.

But this year, the chatter at Toy Fair New York was dominated not by the next Barbie, but a larger game, one of global tactics, that could make most toys more expensive for U.S. consumers.

Almost 80 percent of toys sold in the United States are made in China. Last week, just as toy vendors from across the United States and dozens of other countries started to flock to the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center for the annual toy fair, President Trump announced a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods that would come on top of the 10 percent he already imposed a month ago.

Companies big and small — from family-owned brands to household names — are trying to figure out how to manage the new costs related to tariffs. Stationed at a booth lined with plush stuffed animals, Linda Colson, the vice president of sales at Mary Meyer Corporation, said her company, based in Vermont, was in a state of paralysis over pricing. “We don’t know what to do,” she said. “I think a lot of people in this building are just waiting to see what everybody else is doing.”

Jay Foreman, the chief executive of Basic Fun, a toy manufacturer and distributor in Florida, sells to retailers including Walmart and Target. After Mr. Trump ordered the 10 percent tariff on China in February, Mr. Foreman started thinking of ways to avoid passing those costs onto his customers. So last Wednesday, he met with his company’s board of directors to devise a plan that would split the burden: the company, its factories in China and its retail customers would each absorb 3.5 percent of the added cost.

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But just hours later, Mr. Foreman tuned into CNBC and heard Mr. Trump declare that new tariffs on China could jump to a total of 20 percent this week. The company’s plans “went right out the window,” said Mr. Foreman, whose company employs about 110 people in the United States and a total of 165 people globally.

“Now, those can’t be absorbed, and that additional tariff has to be passed onto the consumer,” he added. “It tipped the domino.”

The Tonka Mighty Dump Truck, which Basic Fun makes under a license from Hasbro, currently retails for $29.99. That price will probably increase between $5 and $10 for consumers, Mr. Foreman said.

Some of the bigger companies at the convention expressed confidence that their Chinese suppliers would absorb a portion of the added costs, as factories would not want to lose business.

Safari, which sells animal figurines, produces about 90 percent of its products in China, said Danny Falero, the company’s director of marketing, and manufacturers have said they are willing to make some concessions. He emphasized that his company did not intend to raise prices unless Mr. Trump’s policies went into effect.

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“It’s slightly theater, so let’s see what actually lands, and then we’ll make adjustments based on that,” Mr. Falero said.

Looming tariffs were weighing heavily on Luis Prior, who owns Meavia Toys, a small company in Corbin, Ky. His three-year-old business designs sensory toys for children with special needs and are sold to teachers, hospitals and museums.

Mr. Prior said that regardless of whether tariffs on China stayed at 10 percent or doubled on Tuesday, he would have to raise his prices. But the uncertainty has made it impossible to make any specific pricing decisions, he said. When he returns home from the convention this week, Mr. Prior plans to go through his products, item by item, and reassess.

“Exhaustion,” Mr. Prior said. “That’s the only way I can describe it.”

Three billion toys are sold in the United States each year, generating $42 billion in sales and supporting nearly 700,000 jobs, according to the Toy Association, a trade group representing the U.S. toy industry.

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The association has been lobbying for an exemption from Mr. Trump’s broad tariffs, pointing in part to the fact that small businesses make up roughly 96 percent of the industry, said Greg Ahearn, the group’s chief executive. During Mr. Trump’s first term in the White House, he had imposed 10 to 25 percent tariffs on many Chinese products — but he backed down from tariffs on toys, among other consumer goods.

While most toys are made in China, some manufacturing has moved to Mexico in recent years, but Mr. Trump also said that the 25 percent tariff he had imposed on Mexico and Canada would go into effect on Tuesday.

The Toy Association has been visiting senators’ offices and pushing to get its message to people inside the Trump administration, Mr. Ahearn said, as well as communicating with its members daily to share the latest updates on tariffs.

Mr. Trump’s announcement of an additional tariff on China coincided with Mr. Ahearn’s preparations for the Toy Fair. “It wasn’t good, and now it’s unbearable for us as an industry,” Mr. Ahearn said, adding that a 20 percent tariff will inevitably be passed onto consumers.

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, the White House trade adviser, Peter Navarro, doubled down on Mr. Trump’s tariff plans, saying their effect on consumer prices would be “second order small” when taking in account the administration’s simultaneous plans to deregulate industry, reduce the size of the federal government and expand energy production.

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“I don’t see the president wavering on any of this,” he said.

Five years ago, Sharon Azula and her husband started a company called the Tooth Brigade selling tooth-fairy pillows. Last summer, they lowered the retail price for a pillow — a small stuffed animal with a tooth pouch — to $14, down from $16, which helped boost demand.

Tariffs, especially if they amount to 20 percent, are likely to force Ms. Azula to raise prices again, since everything they sell is manufactured in China. When they started the brand, she and her husband wanted to manufacture their products in the United States, but it was too expensive, she said.

Now, motioning to a pillow at her Toy Fair booth, Ms. Azula said she was worried that higher prices could sink the business.

“When I’m here, I try not to think about it,” she said, tearing up. “But when you try to think about what the future is going to be — I don’t know. I just don’t know.”

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Trump orders federal agencies to stop using Anthropic’s AI after clash with Pentagon

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Trump orders federal agencies to stop using Anthropic’s AI after clash with Pentagon

President Trump on Friday directed federal agencies to stop using technology from San Francisco artificial intelligence company Anthropic, escalating a high-profile clash between the AI startup and the Pentagon over safety.

In a Friday post on the social media site Truth Social, Trump described the company as “radical left” and “woke.”

“We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and will not do business with them again!” Trump said.

The president’s harsh words mark a major escalation in the ongoing battle between some in the Trump administration and several technology companies over the use of artificial intelligence in defense tech.

Anthropic has been sparring with the Pentagon, which had threatened to end its $200-million contract with the company on Friday if it didn’t loosen restrictions on its AI model so it could be used for more military purposes. Anthropic had been asking for more guarantees that its tech wouldn’t be used for surveillance of Americans or autonomous weapons.

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The tussle could hobble Anthropic’s business with the government. The Trump administration said the company was added to a sweeping national security blacklist, ordering federal agencies to immediately discontinue use of its products and barring any government contractors from maintaining ties with it.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who met with Anthropic’s Chief Executive Dario Amodei this week, criticized the tech company after Trump’s Truth Social post.

“Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon,” he wrote Friday on social media site X.

Anthropic didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Anthropic announced a two-year agreement with the Department of Defense in July to “prototype frontier AI capabilities that advance U.S. national security.”

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The company has an AI chatbot called Claude, but it also built a custom AI system for U.S. national security customers.

On Thursday, Amodei signaled the company wouldn’t cave to the Department of Defense’s demands to loosen safety restrictions on its AI models.

The government has emphasized in negotiations that it wants to use Anthropic’s technology only for legal purposes, and the safeguards Anthropic wants are already covered by the law.

Still, Amodei was worried about Washington’s commitment.

“We have never raised objections to particular military operations nor attempted to limit use of our technology in an ad hoc manner,” he said in a blog post. “However, in a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values.”

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Tech workers have backed Anthropic’s stance.

Unions and worker groups representing 700,000 employees at Amazon, Google and Microsoft said this week in a joint statement that they’re urging their employers to reject these demands as well if they have additional contracts with the Pentagon.

“Our employers are already complicit in providing their technologies to power mass atrocities and war crimes; capitulating to the Pentagon’s intimidation will only further implicate our labor in violence and repression,” the statement said.

Anthropic’s standoff with the U.S. government could benefit its competitors, such as Elon Musk’s xAI or OpenAI.

Sam Altman, chief executive of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT and one of Anthropic’s biggest competitors, told CNBC in an interview that he trusts Anthropic.

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“I think they really do care about safety, and I’ve been happy that they’ve been supporting our war fighters,” he said. “I’m not sure where this is going to go.”

Anthropic has distinguished itself from its rivals by touting its concern about AI safety.

The company, valued at roughly $380 billion, is legally required to balance making money with advancing the company’s public benefit of “responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity.”

Developers, businesses, government agencies and other organizations use Anthropic’s tools. Its chatbot can generate code, write text and perform other tasks. Anthropic also offers an AI assistant for consumers and makes money from paid subscriptions as well as contracts. Unlike OpenAI, which is testing ads in ChatGPT, Anthropic has pledged not to show ads in its chatbot Claude.

The company has roughly 2,000 employees and has revenue equivalent to about $14 billion a year.

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Video: The Web of Companies Owned by Elon Musk

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Video: The Web of Companies Owned by Elon Musk

new video loaded: The Web of Companies Owned by Elon Musk

In mapping out Elon Musk’s wealth, our investigation found that Mr. Musk is behind more than 90 companies in Texas. Kirsten Grind, a New York Times Investigations reporter, explains what her team found.

By Kirsten Grind, Melanie Bencosme, James Surdam and Sean Havey

February 27, 2026

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Commentary: How Trump helped foreign markets outperform U.S. stocks during his first year in office

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Commentary: How Trump helped foreign markets outperform U.S. stocks during his first year in office

Trump has crowed about the gains in the U.S. stock market during his term, but in 2025 investors saw more opportunity in the rest of the world.

If you’re a stock market investor you might be feeling pretty good about how your portfolio of U.S. equities fared in the first year of President Trump’s term.

All the major market indices seemed to be firing on all cylinders, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gaining 17.9% through the full year.

But if you’re the type of investor who looks for things to regret, pay no attention to the rest of the world’s stock markets. That’s because overseas markets did better than the U.S. market in 2025 — a lot better. The MSCI World ex-USA index — that is, all the stock markets except the U.S. — gained more than 32% last year, nearly double the percentage gains of U.S. markets.

That’s a major departure from recent trends. Since 2013, the MSCI US index had bested the non-U.S. index every year except 2017 and 2022, sometimes by a wide margin — in 2024, for instance, the U.S. index gained 24.6%, while non-U.S. markets gained only 4.7%.

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The Trump trade is dead. Long live the anti-Trump trade.

— Katie Martin, Financial Times

Broken down into individual country markets (also by MSCI indices), in 2025 the U.S. ranked 21st out of 23 developed markets, with only New Zealand and Denmark doing worse. Leading the pack were Austria and Spain, with 86% gains, but superior records were turned in by Finland, Ireland and Hong Kong, with gains of 50% or more; and the Netherlands, Norway, Britain and Japan, with gains of 40% or more.

Investment analysts cite several factors to explain this trend. Judging by traditional metrics such as price/earnings multiples, the U.S. markets have been much more expensive than those in the rest of the world. Indeed, they’re historically expensive. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index traded in 2025 at about 23 times expected corporate earnings; the historical average is 18 times earnings.

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Investment managers also have become nervous about the concentration of market gains within the U.S. technology sector, especially in companies associated with artificial intelligence R&D. Fears that AI is an investment bubble that could take down the S&P’s highest fliers have investors looking elsewhere for returns.

But one factor recurs in almost all the market analyses tracking relative performance by U.S. and non-U.S. markets: Donald Trump.

Investors started 2025 with optimism about Trump’s influence on trading opportunities, given his apparent commitment to deregulation and his braggadocio about America’s dominant position in the world and his determination to preserve, even increase it.

That hasn’t been the case for months.

”The Trump trade is dead. Long live the anti-Trump trade,” Katie Martin of the Financial Times wrote this week. “Wherever you look in financial markets, you see signs that global investors are going out of their way to avoid Donald Trump’s America.”

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Two Trump policy initiatives are commonly cited by wary investment experts. One, of course, is Trump’s on-and-off tariffs, which have left investors with little ability to assess international trade flows. The Supreme Court’s invalidation of most Trump tariffs and the bellicosity of his response, which included the immediate imposition of new 10% tariffs across the board and the threat to increase them to 15%, have done nothing to settle investors’ nerves.

Then there’s Trump’s driving down the value of the dollar through his agitation for lower interest rates, among other policies. For overseas investors, a weaker dollar makes U.S. assets more expensive relative to the outside world.

It would be one thing if trade flows and the dollar’s value reflected economic conditions that investors could themselves parse in creating a picture of investment opportunities. That’s not the case just now. “The current uncertainty is entirely man-made (largely by one orange-hued man in particular) but could well continue at least until the US mid-term elections in November,” Sam Burns of Mill Street Research wrote on Dec. 29.

Trump hasn’t been shy about trumpeting U.S. stock market gains as emblems of his policy wisdom. “The stock market has set 53 all-time record highs since the election,” he said in his State of the Union address Tuesday. “Think of that, one year, boosting pensions, 401(k)s and retirement accounts for the millions and the millions of Americans.”

Trump asserted: “Since I took office, the typical 401(k) balance is up by at least $30,000. That’s a lot of money. … Because the stock market has done so well, setting all those records, your 401(k)s are way up.”

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Trump’s figure doesn’t conform to findings by retirement professionals such as the 401(k) overseers at Bank of America. They reported that the average account balance grew by only about $13,000 in 2025. I asked the White House for the source of Trump’s claim, but haven’t heard back.

Interpreting stock market returns as snapshots of the economy is a mug’s game. Despite that, at her recent appearance before a House committee, Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi tried to deflect questions about her handling of the Jeffrey Epstein records by crowing about it.

“The Dow is over 50,000 right now, she declared. “Americans’ 401(k)s and retirement savings are booming. That’s what we should be talking about.”

I predicted that the administration would use the Dow industrial average’s break above 50,000 to assert that “the overall economy is firing on all cylinders, thanks to his policies.” The Dow reached that mark on Feb. 6. But Feb. 11, the day of Bondi’s testimony, was the last day the index closed above 50,000. On Thursday, it closed at 49,499.50, or about 1.4% below its Feb. 10 peak close of 50,188.14.

To use a metric suggested by economist Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan, if you invested $48,488 in the Dow on the day Trump took office last year, when the Dow closed at 48,448 points, you would have had $50,000 on Feb. 6. That’s a gain of about 3.2%. But if you had invested the same amount in the global stock market not including the U.S. (based on the MSCI World ex-USA index), on that same day you would have had nearly $60,000. That’s a gain of nearly 24%.

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Broader market indices tell essentially the same story. From Jan. 17, 2025, the last day before Trump’s inauguration, through Thursday’s close, the MSCI US stock index gained a cumulative 16.3%. But the world index minus the U.S. gained nearly 42%.

The gulf between U.S. and non-U.S. performance has continued into the current year. The S&P 500 has gained about 0.74% this year through Wednesday, while the MSCI World ex-USA index has gained about 8.9%. That’s “the best start for a calendar year for global stocks relative to the S&P 500 going back to at least 1996,” Morningstar reports.

It wouldn’t be unusual for the discrepancy between the U.S. and global markets to shrink or even reverse itself over the course of this year.

That’s what happened in 2017, when overseas markets as tracked by MSCI beat the U.S. by more than three percentage points, and 2022, when global markets lost money but U.S. markets underperformed the rest of the world by more than five percentage points.

Economic conditions change, and often the stock markets march to their own drummers. The one thing less likely to change is that Trump is set to remain president until Jan. 20, 2029. Make your investment bets accordingly.

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