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Are Big Profits Keeping Prices High? Some Central Bankers Are Concerned

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Are Big Profits Keeping Prices High? Some Central Bankers Are Concerned

After months of fretting about whether or not employees’ pay rises would preserve inflation uncomfortably excessive, central bankers in Europe have one other concern: massive firm earnings.

Firms that push up their costs above and past what is critical to soak up increased prices could possibly be fueling inflation that central bankers have to fight with increased rates of interest, a policymaker on the European Central Financial institution warned, suggesting that governments would possibly have to intervene in some conditions.

Policymakers, lengthy preoccupied with increased pay prompting firms to boost their costs, producing a wage-price spiral, also needs to be alert to the dangers of a so-called profit-price spiral, mentioned Fabio Panetta, an government board member on the E.C.B. At a convention in Frankfurt final week he identified that within the fourth quarter of final 12 months half of home worth pressures within the eurozone got here from earnings, whereas the opposite half stemmed from wages.

His considerations about earnings have been echoed in latest remarks by the E.C.B.’s president, Christine Lagarde, and the Financial institution of England governor, Andrew Bailey. Though inflation in Europe has begun to ease from final 12 months’s double-digit peaks, the charges stay far above 2 p.c, the goal of most central banks.

“There’s quite a lot of dialogue on wage progress,” Mr. Panetta mentioned in an interview this week. “However we’re most likely paying inadequate consideration to the opposite element of revenue — that’s, earnings.”

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Revenue margins at public firms within the eurozone — measured by internet revenue as a share of income — averaged 8.5 p.c within the 12 months by March, based on Refinitiv, a step down from a latest peak of 8.7 p.c in mid-February. Earlier than the pandemic, on the finish of 2019, the common margin was 7.2 p.c. Revenue margins have grown in recent times amongst vitality firms and shopper discretionary items firms, equivalent to luxurious retail manufacturers Hermès and LVMH.

There was an identical phenomenon in the USA, the place firms reported huge revenue margins final 12 months regardless of the very best ranges of inflation in 4 a long time. To guard these margins as prices fall, some firms are specializing in providing premium merchandise.

Firms could possibly be rising costs due to increased enter prices (the bills concerned in producing their items or providers), or as a result of they anticipate future value will increase, or as a result of they’ve market energy that permits them to boost costs with out struggling a lack of demand, Mr. Panetta mentioned. Some producers could possibly be exploiting the imbalances in provide and demand following the pandemic lockdowns or making the most of this era of excessive inflation, which makes it more difficult for patrons to make sure of the reason for worth will increase.

“Given the scenario which prevails within the economic system, there could possibly be ultimate situations for companies to extend their costs and earnings,” he added.

I’m not right here to move a judgment on how truthful or unfair” price-setting is, Mr. Panetta insisted, however reasonably to discover all the causes of inflation. Mr. Panetta is a member of the E.C.B.’s six-person government board that units coverage alongside the governors of the 20 central banks within the eurozone, and a former senior deputy governor of the Financial institution of Italy.

There are sectors the place “enter prices are falling whereas retail costs are rising and earnings are additionally rising,” Mr. Panetta mentioned. “So this is sufficient to be nervous as a central banker that there could possibly be a rise in inflation because of rising earnings.”

The typical price of inflation for the 20 nations that use the euro has been falling for 5 months — to six.9 p.c within the 12 months by March — however core inflation, which excludes unstable vitality and meals costs, a measure utilized by policymakers to evaluate how deeply inflation is embedding within the economic system, has continued to rise. Analysts predict the E.C.B. is edging nearer to pausing will increase in rates of interest, which at the moment are on the highest since 2008, as a result of vitality costs have fallen considerably and the latest outbreak of turmoil within the banking sector would possibly gradual the economic system.

However policymakers have mentioned they wish to see proof of core inflation slowing down. Corporations elevating costs to broaden their earnings may gradual that decline, Mr. Panetta mentioned.

Central bankers are likely to focus extra on wages and the danger that jumps in pay will result in persistently excessive inflation, particularly in Europe the place wages have a tendency to alter extra slowly than in the USA. The E.C.B. has been scrutinizing the info on wages, even creating new instruments to measure modifications in wages extra rapidly.

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However this intense concentrate on wages has provoked some criticism. Mr. Bailey of the Financial institution of England was referred to as out final 12 months for suggesting employees ought to present restraint in asking for increased wages.

As inflation persists, consideration has turned to company earnings. There’s uncertainty about what is going to occur as costs for vitality and different commodities preserve falling: Will firms restrain themselves from elevating costs additional?

Final week, Ms. Lagarde raised the problem of earnings, saying there wanted to be truthful burden sharing between firms and employees to soak up the hit to the economic system and revenue from increased vitality costs. “If each events try to unilaterally decrease their losses, we may see a suggestions mechanism between increased revenue margins, wages and costs,” she mentioned.

In Britain, Mr. Bailey informed firms to remember that inflation is anticipated to fall when setting costs. Throughout the Atlantic, final 12 months Lael Brainard, who was then the vice-chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, instructed that amid excessive revenue margins in some industries, a discount in markups may convey down inflation.

In Europe, firms had been capable of shield their revenue margins final 12 months from excessive inflation greater than anticipated, Marcus Morris-Eyton, a European equities analyst at Allianz International Investor, mentioned. “Corporates had extra pricing energy, at a median stage, than most traders anticipated,” he mentioned.

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This 12 months, he expects there shall be extra selection in revenue margins, as not all sectors will be capable to preserve costs excessive. “The typical European firm will face far better margin strain this 12 months than they did final 12 months,” Mr. Morris-Eyton mentioned. That’s due to increased wage prices however “partly as a result of as enter prices have fallen, there may be better strain out of your clients to decrease costs.”

Final 12 months, record-breaking earnings by vitality producers was the supply of ire for shoppers who confronted excessive vitality payments, whereas governments spent billions to guard households from a few of these prices. However as vitality costs have fallen, shoppers are nonetheless experiencing rising meals costs. Within the eurozone, the annual price of meals inflation rose to fifteen.4 p.c in March, up from 15 p.c the earlier month.

“To a sure extent there’s been additionally an opportunistic transfer by some massive producers to truly improve their costs, generally above their very own value will increase,” mentioned Christel Delberghe, the director common of EuroCommerce, a Brussels-based group representing wholesale and retail firms throughout Europe. “It’s form of a free-riding on a excessive worth surroundings.”

It’s one of many components squeezing earnings at retail firms, alongside the rising prices of merchandise they purchase and resell and better value of operations.

There’s a notable disparity in revenue margins between meals producers and retailers, a historically low-margin enterprise. The meals and shopper items conglomerates Unilever and Nestlé every reported revenue margins within the excessive teenagers for 2022, whereas French grocery store firm Carrefour reported a margin of about 3 p.c for a similar interval. Unilever raised costs for its merchandise by greater than 11 p.c final 12 months and Nestlé raised costs by greater than 8 p.c, however in each circumstances the businesses mentioned that that they had not handed on all the consequences of upper prices to shoppers.

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Ms. Delberghe mentioned she feared the blame for increased costs was unfairly going to land on retailers. “We’re extraordinarily nervous as a result of certainly there may be this notion that costs are going up and that it’s very unfair,” she mentioned. Retail companies are getting quite a lot of pushback, together with from governments attempting to take motion to cease worth will increase in shops.

On the E.C.B., Mr. Panetta mentioned governments ought to step in the place crucial, partly as a result of their fiscal assist packages have helped preserve earnings excessive. “If there’s a sector specifically the place market energy is abused or there may be inadequate competitors, then there ought to be competitors insurance policies that ought to intervene,” he mentioned.

But it surely was additionally a message to firms.

It ought to be clear to producers that methods primarily based on excessive costs that improve earnings and inflation could become expensive for them,” he mentioned.

The fee? Larger rates of interest.

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TikTok said to plan job cuts amid a wave of tech industry layoffs

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TikTok said to plan job cuts amid a wave of tech industry layoffs

TikTok is expected to make cuts to its global staff, in another blow for the popular social video app as it faces the threat of a new law that would ban its service in the U.S. if its Chinese owner doesn’t divest.

The layoffs are expected to affect employees in content and marketing and user operations, according to technology-focused news outlet the Information, which first reported on the looming job cuts. TikTok did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Some U.S. leaders have raised security concerns about TikTok and its parent company ByteDance’s ties to China. ByteDance and TikTok have said the new law “offers no support for the idea” that TikTok’s Chinese ownership poses national security risks.

An unnamed TikTok employee told CNN that the workforce reduction was not related to the potential ban in the U.S.

The cuts come as tech companies have shed their workforce this year to reduce their costs and, in some cases, prepare to hire more people skilled in emerging artificial intelligence tech.

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It’s unclear how many layoffs will occur at TikTok’s U.S. headquarters in Culver City. TikTok employs roughly 500 people in Culver City, according to city data.

TikTok has launched legal battles to stop the government from going forward with its ban of the company’s U.S. operations. The firm sued the U.S. government and funded a separate legal challenge led by TikTok creators. Both petitions said the move to ban or force a sale of the app violates 1st Amendment free speech protections.

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The 2024 box office is terrible. But Imax's big-screen appeal is a bright spot

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The 2024 box office is terrible. But Imax's big-screen appeal is a bright spot

When Warner Bros. film executive Jeff Goldstein saw the huge sand dunes and expansive desert vistas of Denis Villeneuve’s first “Dune” movie, he thought to himself, “This was made for Imax.”

Same went for the sandworm sequences of the sequel, “Dune: Part Two,” a box office hit for the studio earlier this year that pulled in nearly 24% of its domestic box office revenue from Imax. The dystopian wasteland of this weekend’s big action tent pole, “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” brings yet more fodder for the big screen format.

Imax’s giant screens are expected to account for a greater-than-typical share of the George Miller-directed prequel’s box office sales. (The film is tracking to gross more than $40 million domestically for the four-day weekend opening, according to analysts.)

“It immerses you, so you’re there,” said Goldstein, president of domestic distribution for Warner Bros. Pictures. “Audiences look at Imax as something special.”

As studios and exhibitors bemoan audiences’ slow return to movie theaters since the pandemic, Imax has been one of the few bright spots. This year’s box office is down 20% compared to last year, when pictures like “Fast X,” “Barbie” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” propelled ticket sales, and yet studios are clamoring to get onto Imax screens.

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Audience behavior has now changed, and getting people out of their houses and back into theaters requires something special they can’t get at home. That put Imax in a fortuitous spot.

The 57-year-old Canadian company, which operates out of Playa Vista, is coming off one of its best years, with Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” helping to fuel overall global box office revenue — marking Imax’s second-highest grossing year in its history. Films shown on Imax are reaping bigger box office numbers, helped in part by higher ticket prices, and that’s a powerful allure for studios and filmmakers.

Next year, 13 Hollywood movies slated for release will be shot on Imax digital cameras or film, beating a previous record logged in 2021 when seven so-called filmed for Imax movies came out.

The company hopes its brand awareness eventually looms so large that viewers come to its screens first.

“Instead of saying, ‘What’s happening at the movies?,’ I want them to say, ‘What’s happening at Imax?’” said Imax Corp. Chief Executive Rich Gelfond.

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For Imax’s part, its financial performance in the first fiscal quarter of 2024 beat expectations. The company’s net income totaled $3.3 million for the three-month period that ended March 31, up 33% from the previous year, though revenue decreased by about 9%, to $79.1 million. Shares of Imax are up about 10.9% so far this year.

“While there are exceptions like ‘Barbie,’ it is very, very difficult to be a blockbuster without being in Imax,” said Greg Foster, a former Imax Entertainment chief executive who now runs an entertainment consulting business.

Imax’s current mainstream success is what Gelfond and his business partners envisioned when they acquired the company in 1994. At the time, Imax was essentially a museum staple, albeit one that allowed viewers to immerse themselves in the latest nature film or science documentary.

The company adjusted its screens and sound systems to fit in commercial multiplex theaters, allowing its business to grow rapidly while limiting costs (Imax does not own theaters itself, but instead supplies its screening technology to cinema chains). Imax also developed technology to convert movies to Imax’s format to make it more economically attractive for filmmakers and benefited from the advent of digital film, which made it more cost effective.

By 2019, the company had seen year-over-year global box office growth for several years and expanded its global market share to spread its box office almost evenly among North America, China and the rest of the world.

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Like its movie theater owner customers, Imax was hit hard by COVID-19 business shutdowns. But because the company has few assets and little debt, it was insulated in part from the financial fallout that the rest of the industry faced. The company used the time to update its technology, including a new laser projection system and sound system, worked on its marketing and leaned more into local language films, Gelfond said.

Now in a post-pandemic world, moviegoers want something premium and special for their time, and they’re willing to pay for it. That’s a bonus for Imax and so-called premium large-format screens operated by the theater chains.

“In an industry that is constantly re-evaluating its present and its future in terms of competing with new media and bringing back audiences, it’s Imax that has been at the heart of the conversation when we talk about sectors of the industry that have recovered,” said Shawn Robbins, founder of analysis site Box Office Theory. “It’s been a way for studios to have reliability in an often volatile theatrical market.”

Walt Disney Co. has leaned hard into Imax and other premium large formats.

Its marketing campaign for “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” released earlier this month, prominently featured the Imax logo on billboards, bus stop signs and other advertisements. During opening weekend, 41% of the movie’s domestic box office came from premium large-format screenings, 13% of which was Imax, Disney said. Typically, a blockbuster that hasn’t been filmed on Imax cameras, like “Apes,” would do about 10% at the box office, Gelfond said.

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As an industry, “we need to give audiences a terrific experience every time they go to see a movie,” said Tony Chambers, executive vice president and head of theatrical distribution for Walt Disney Studios. “Going to see a movie in premium large formats helps drive engagement and helps drive frequency.”

From 2022 to 2023, premium large formats made up 19% of Disney’s total domestic business; just before the pandemic, that total was 15%. Some of that came from 3-D screens, which have tapered off in popularity.

The company saw box office success with James Cameron’s 2022 sequel, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which brought in $1.6 billion in revenue from premium large formats out of a total of $2.32 billion (About 11% of which came from Imax). Marvel’s “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” last year brought in 31% of its box office revenue from premium large formats.

Especially since the pandemic, there’s now more competition for people’s time and attention from streaming and social media, making it crucial for studios to give audiences a good reason to leave their couches.

“We need a way to cut through some of the clutter and make it clear to people that you cannot wait, you need to see this on the big screen,” Chambers said. “One of the ways to do that, from a marketing perspective, is to lean heavily into the premium large format.”

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For a lot of people, he said, that means Imax. In fact, Imax executives bristle when people lump them with the other so-called PLFs, which include Dolby Cinema and ScreenX.

Imax box office makes up 13% of Warner Bros. overall domestic business, compared to an industry wide 5% to 7%, according to the studio. Industry wide, opening weekends are typically 10% to 12% Imax. But some are a bigger draw. The Imax share of “Dune: Part Two’s” domestic box office was 22%.

“It’s this whole notion of how do you hit critical mass,” Goldstein said. “Imax will help you get to critical mass faster.”

Imax’s future hinges on continued growth, especially internationally. As of 2023, the company had 1,772 screens across the globe, including its institutional theaters and museum screens, up slightly from the previous year.

The company also plans to expand, particularly into markets that it thinks are under-served, such as Australia and Japan.

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“It has massive growth potential globally, and it’s certainly not at saturation in most of its global markets at this point,” said Alicia Reese, media and entertainment analyst at Wedbush Securities. “They should trade at a higher multiple given their growth potential.”

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Ari Emanuel denounces Israeli Prime Minister at Jewish group’s gala

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Ari Emanuel denounces Israeli Prime Minister at Jewish group’s gala

Endeavor Chief Executive Ari Emanuel this week called for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ouster and denounced his leadership following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

The Hollywood power player made the remarks during the Simon Wiesenthal Center’s gala in Beverly Hills, where he accepted the Jewish organization’s Humanitarian Award, its highest honor.

“This is a painful and crucial moment for all of us who are Jews and who love Israel. It is not a moment to stay silent,” Emanuel said Wednesday evening.

“Israel is being led not by a problem solver, but by a problem creator. He is an agent of chaos and hatred and division and destruction. And enough is enough. Bibi Netanyahu is a failure.”

His remarks were met with both cheers and jeers, with some attendees walking out of the Beverly Wilshire Hotel. The audience was filled with members of Emanuel’s family and entertainment industry stalwarts including Larry David, Robert Kraft, Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.”

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Emanuel, who spoke of his family’s long ties to Israel and who supports a two-state solution, said Netanyahu “doesn’t want a peaceful solution” in the conflict “And it’s become clear that getting to a political solution and Netanyahu remaining in power are irreconcilable paths,” he said.

“As for his responsibilities to keep the people of the state of Israel and Jews across the globe safe, he has obviously failed spectacularly,” Emanuel said. “But he has succeeded wildly in using division to stay in power.”

One of the most powerful executives in Hollywood, Emanuel is also one of the most outspoken. Two years ago he urged businesses to cut ties with the artist formerly known as Kanye West after he made antisemitic remarks. Companies such as Adidas and the Gap stopped working with the rapper and producer.

In 2006, Emanuel wrote an open letter calling on Hollywood to boycott Mel Gibson after his antisemitic rant made during a drunk-driving arrest, saying the actor’s alcoholism “does not excuse racism and anti-Semitism.” Year later, Emanuel accepted an apology from Gibson and supported his return to the film industry.

The Oct. 7 terror attack by Hamas left about 1,200 Israelis dead and more than than 250 kidnapped. Israel’s military retaliation has killed more than 35,000 people and displaced thousands more, according to Gaza health officials. The war has polarized every sector of the U.S., including Hollywood.

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Emanuel lamented the civilian casualties and suffering among Palestinians in Gaza. “The loss of even a single innocent child is a tragedy,” he said. But he called Israel’s war “justified” saying “Israel did not start the war in Gaza. Hamas did.”

He also criticized pro-Palestinian protesters using the slogan “from the river to the sea,” which he said means the elimination of Israel. “That’s the definition of genocide,” he said.

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