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How the spike in gas prices is jolting California’s giant economy

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How the spike in gas prices is jolting California’s giant economy

With crude oil topping $100 a barrel, and the average price of gas in the state approaching $5.50 a gallon, every touch of the nozzle is painful for California drivers.

Now, with the Iran war nearing its third week, the soaring costs of energy are rippling through the world’s fourth-largest economy.

While economists say it‘s too early to gauge the long-term impacts on the state, one thing is clear: The higher cost to fill gas tanks is eating into Californians’ disposable incomes — what’s spent to buy food and other necessities, or to go out and have fun — while reducing the income of businesses, also facing higher fuel costs.

“Inflation and affordability have been a big concern for the American public, and the longer this goes on, the greater risk there is of increasing overall inflation,” said Trevor Higgins, senior vice president for energy and the environment at the Center for American Progress. The group released a report this week documenting the inflationary impacts of the war and past conflicts.

The price of a gallon of gas hit $5.37 on Thursday, up 82 cents from a month ago, according to AAA. The state consistently has the highest prices in the nation due to taxes, clean air rules and supply constraints.

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Before the start of the war, the California economy seemed poised for strong growth despite a lagging jobs market that has seen multiple employers — including several major tech companies such as Google, Block and Autodesk — slash payrolls by the thousands.

The state’s economy grew at a robust 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, driven by artificial intelligence investment, the burgeoning aerospace industry and other high-productivity sectors, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast released early this month.

The report predicted a possible pickup in employment this year, but any prolonged conflict in the Middle East means all bets are off.

The $4.1-trillion state economy is highly diverse, with large logistics, manufacturing and agriculture industries, just to name a few sectors having to absorb higher fuel costs — though defense contractors could well benefit from the war.

Just as the state’s more than 25 million registered drivers are experiencing pain at the pump, the rising cost of diesel fuel is hitting Southern California’s large logistics industry, including truckers reliant on diesel fuel.

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The average price of a gallon of diesel was up to $6.21 on Thursday, up $1.17 from a month earlier.

The twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are the epicenter of the region’s logistics industry, supporting more than 200,000 jobs and contributing $28 billion to the regional economy in 2022. Some 9,000 truckers visit the ports at least once weekly.

“Diesel fuels all supply chains, and so it will affect the truckers who are servicing the ports immediately. This is going to upset a lot of business plans,” said economist Jock O’Connell, international trade advisor at L.A.’s Beacon Economics.

“There’s every hope that it will be wrapped up within a few weeks at most and will return to normal. But for the time being, there’s going to be a war tax imposed on the entire transportation system of the United States,” he said.

The war also has doubled the costs of bunker fuel that powers ships calling on the local ports with goods from Asia, said Ronald Widdows, chief executive of FlexiVan, a chassis supplier for the logistics industry, during a Port of Los Angeles media briefing Thursday.

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That is adding $2 million to the costs of every round trip, which is passed on to the importers here in the United States, he said. Importers include big U.S. toy, apparel and other retailers that can pass on the costs to consumers.

It’s also expected that the disruption in Middle East shipping lanes could slow goods bound for Southern California as they back up in Southeast Asian ports — though for now it’s expected to be minimal, Widdows said.

“That will have some knock-on effect on cargo volume if this goes on for very much longer,” he said.

The state’s $61-billion agricultural industry, the largest in the nation, is highly sensitive to diesel costs too.

“The agricultural industry here in California, as well as the rest of the country, uses a lot of diesel. There’s lots of big equipment, whether it’s an almond harvester or some big tractor in a rice field,” said Daniel Sumner, a professor of agriculture at UC Davis.

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While diesel costs are already affecting farmers, another threat on the horizon is higher fertilizer costs due to the rising costs of natural gas, a key feedstock in making it, he said.

Sumner noted the new challenges arrive as the industry is still grappling with President Trump’s tariffs, which — though a majority have been struck down by the Supreme Court — prompted retaliatory actions by longtime trading partners.

The surge in fuel prices comes as the state is experiencing what the Anderson report called a “bifurcated” state economy, with the tech and aerospace industries making up for the lagging construction, retail and segments of the leisure and hospitality industries.

Also lagging has been the kind of hiring expected from a growing economy, exacerbated by thousands of job cuts in Silicon Valley, which firms say have been prompted by artificial intelligence investment and disruption.

Hollywood studios have also laid off thousands because of a slowdown in filming, with the recent Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal stirring fears of more.

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Just last week, Oakland fintech Block, the parent of Cash App and payment services company Square, cut more than 4,000 workers citing AI.

The national jobs picture isn’t much better. Last week, the Labor Department reported that employers cut 92,000 jobs in February, a month economists had expected would see a 60,000 gain. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.

California’s unemployment rate was 5.5% in December, the most recent available data. That is the highest in the nation, but down a tenth of a point since November.

Michael Bernick, a former director of California’s Employment Development Department, said that although it has been too soon for the war to affect employment, the inflationary pressures brought by higher fuel costs don’t help.

“California’s job market today is among the most competitive and difficult job markets to find a job in that I’ve seen in over 47 years in the field. So it is not like the California economy is in good position in any case,” he said.

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As with any war, though, there’s money to be made, and particularly by the defense industry — a sector of the economy in which California holds an advantage over much of the rest of the nation.

Although multiple legacy defense contractors have moved their headquarters out of the state, it retains significant operations of companies such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX, formerly Raytheon.

Some defense stocks have surged since the start of the war, while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index is down about 3%, including a 1.5% drop on Thursday following threats from Iran’s new leader.

Southern California also has seen a resurgence of the industry in recent years, with dozens of aerospace, defense tech and weapons startups planting their headquarters here.

Among them is Anduril Industries, a Costa Mesa startup that builds drone and other autonomous weapons and last year received a $2.5-billion funding round.

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Economist Jim Doti, a professor at Chapman University in Orange, said that despite the negative effects of rising fuel costs and inflation, the state economy should benefit from the war.

“The major reason is that one of the most expensive aspects of the war is the use of missiles that are largely produced in California,” he said. “When you look at the macro impact of a war, generally, wars have positive effects on the economy.”

The university forecast in December that the nation’s real gross domestic product would grow 2% this year — a figure that it is now being revised to 2.2%. That is due to the stimulus effect of an expected $100 billion in additional government spending.

How the war affects the overall state and national economies remains to be seen, with economists not in agreement.

This week, the government reported that inflation rose 0.3% in February, and 2.4% over the last 12 months, higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate. That lessens the likelihood the central bank will cut interest rates and, coupled with the recent jobs report, raises the prospect of “stagflation” — weak growth and higher inflation.

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Oxford Economics this week stayed with its 2.8% growth projection for the U.S. GDP.

The forecast noted that higher energy prices will push up inflation that will weigh on disposable incomes, but that would be offset by larger tax refunds due to Trump’s tax-and-spending bill passed last year.

O’Connell, the trade economist, said California’s defense industry will benefit “to the extent we’ve managed to shoot off a large part of our inventory of our arsenal, and we’ll need to replenish that.”

But, he added, “It’s a narrowly focused benefit.”

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Schwab Affiliate Halts Customer Donations to Southern Poverty Law Center

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Schwab Affiliate Halts Customer Donations to Southern Poverty Law Center

The donor-advised fund affiliated with Charles Schwab, DAFgiving360, has suspended account holders’ ability to give money to the Southern Poverty Law Center, a civil rights group.

Last week, the Justice Department indicted the group and accused it of financial crimes. This week, the donor-advised funds that bear Fidelity’s and Vanguard’s names also cut the group off.

A spokeswoman for the Schwab-affiliated fund said, “If a governing body of a charity declares an investigation into a charity it oversees, DAFgiving360 may suspend grants to the organization.” She would not provide a list of other organizations that it has suspended.

Donor-advised funds allow individuals to create accounts, donate cash or securities into them and take a tax deduction for the full amount that year. Then they can parcel out donations to charities and other nonprofits over many years.

“Giving to your favorite charity has never been easier” is the language that DAFgiving360 uses on its website. Charles Schwab lists the account balance right next to investment account balances on its own website.

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DAFgiving360 is also careful, however, to use specific language that gets to the legal reality of how the funds work. Users can “recommend” grants to “eligible” charities, for example, which means DAFgiving360 controls the money and the account holder is technically just advising.

This is almost never a practical issue for account holders; donor-advised funds generally rubber-stamp donation requests. But in the wake of the criminal indictment, which accused the S.P.L.C. of paying informants money that contributed to the extremism that it opposes, President Trump said he believed that the S.P.L.C. was behind the racist Charlottesville, Va., riots in 2017.

Mr. Trump did not provide evidence for his allegations against the center. And many Fidelity and Vanguard customers are furious about the move against the S.P.L.C.

DAFgiving360 customers are expressing similar sentiments. “This is too safe a position, and they shouldn’t have done it,” Jani Rachelson, a retired labor lawyer in New Jersey who was unable to donate to the S.P.L.C., said of Schwab’s action. “Compliance in advance is the scourge of our life these days.

DAFgiving360 said in its statement that it applies its policies consistently across all charitable organizations, regardless of political viewpoint or orientation. In the past, a Schwab predecessor charitable-fund entity stopped granting money to National Rifle Association-affiliated charities when an active investigation was underway. The N.R.A. does appear in DAFgiving360 search results now for people making grant requests.

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Prudent trustees with decision-making authority do consider indictments of charities before approving donations to them.

At Merrill Lynch, however, the donor-advised fund operation relies on the Internal Revenue Service for guidance. Since the agency hasn’t revoked S.P.L.C.’s nonprofit status, Merrill Lynch’s donor-advised funds are allowing donations to go through for now.

Meanwhile, Fidelity’s, Schwab’s and Vanguard’s actions raise complicated questions.

“Why not other charities that have also been attacked by the administration, including many major universities,” said Roger Colinvaux, a nonprofit law expert and professor at Catholic University’s Columbus School of Law, via email. “The incident thus raises questions of how DAF sponsors draw the line and whether they are succumbing to political pressure or advancing their mission.”

In March, the Justice Department filed a civil lawsuit against Harvard University, accusing it of civil rights violations and saying it “tolerated antisemitic mobs of students.” As of Friday morning, the “recommend a grant” page of the DAFgiving360 website returned many options from a “Harvard University” search.

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Google, Nvidia and other tech titans sign AI deal with the Pentagon

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Google, Nvidia and other tech titans sign AI deal with the Pentagon

Eight technology companies, including Google, Nvidia and SpaceX, have struck deals with the Pentagon to help the U.S. military gain an edge on the battlefield.

“These agreements accelerate the transformation toward establishing the United States military as an AI-first fighting force and will strengthen our warfighters’ ability to maintain decision superiority across all domains of warfare,” the Department of Defense said Friday.

The companies will deploy their AI technology on the department’s “classified networks” for “lawful operational use,” according to the agency.

OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Oracle and AI startup Reflection are among the companies that agreed to work with the Pentagon.

The agreements underscore how tech companies are expanding their work with the U.S. military even as some workers raise concerns about the use of AI for autonomous weapons and mass surveillance. Anthropic, the San Francisco company behind the chatbot Claude, clashed with the Pentagon earlier this year over whether there were adequate safeguards around the military’s use of its technology.

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The Department of Defense accused Anthropic of trying to “seize veto power” over military decisions, though the company pushed back against that characterization. The agency labeled Anthropic a supply chain risk, and the Trump administration directed federal agencies to stop using the company’s tools, setting off a legal battle over that designation.

This week, hundreds of Google employees urged its chief executive, Sundar Pichai, to reject the use of its AI systems for classified workloads to ensure that its technology isn’t used in “inhumane or extremely harmful ways.” Harmful use may occur without their knowledge since the work is classified, workers said in the letter.

Google, Reflection and SpaceX didn’t respond to a request for comment. The Department of Defense didn’t say how much each company was being paid. A Pentagon official said some of the companies have active contracts while others have made agreements but formal contract are forthcoming.

In an interview with CNBC, the Pentagon’s chief technology officer, Emil Michael, said the department wanted to diversify the companies it worked with following its dispute with Anthropic.

“Guardrails are something that are negotiable based on what they are with all the companies, and they have different views on that,” he told CNBC. The guardrails also have to be consistent with the government’s values and restrictions, he added.

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A source familiar with Nvidia’s Pentagon deal said the agreement involves work with its “Nemotron” AI models, which are used to build AI agents that can complete tasks, not its chips. The deal includes language that the use of the models will be consistent with civil liberties, constitutional rights and applicable law, the source said.

OpenAI said the deal announced by the Department of Defense refers to the agreement they struck with the agency earlier this year.

The company said that it wanted “the people defending the United States to have the best tools.”

OpenAI, which faced backlash for striking a deal with the Pentagon after the Anthropic fallout, said in March that its technology wouldn’t be used for mass domestic surveillance, high-stakes automated decisions or to direct autonomous weapons.

Other tech companies, such as Microsoft, Oracle and Amazon Web Services, have also said they want to support the military and ensure they have access to the best AI tools.

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“We look forward to continuing to support the Department of War’s modernization efforts, building AI solutions that help them accomplish their critical missions,” Amazon Web Services spokesperson Tim Barrett said in a statement.

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Stocks and Oil Prices Sent Conflicting Signals in April Amid Havoc of Iran War

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Stocks and Oil Prices Sent Conflicting Signals in April Amid Havoc of Iran War

Lately, financial markets appear confused.

Oil prices recently hit their highest level since the start of the war in Iran, stoking broad worries about inflation and a global energy crisis.

Yet, it has been the best month for the stock market of President Trump’s second term. The S&P 500 ended April nearly 10 percent higher than where it ended March.

The last time the index rose more than 10 percent in a month was in November 2020, after Joseph R. Biden Jr. was elected president and early trials for Covid-19 vaccines showed promising results. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose a further 0.5 percent, putting it on course for a fifth straight week of gains.

To many outside observers, it seems incongruous that the oil market can be sending such a dour signal, while stocks reflect a strong sense of investor optimism.

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But in this unusual moment, according to analysts and traders, bullish and bearish market signals can both be true.

While the stock market reacts to day-to-day news, it is primarily concerned with how that news affects the longer-term outlook for company earnings. Stocks initially fell when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, reflecting uncertainty about the war’s duration, its impact on energy supplies and the fallout for corporate America.

Stocks began to rise again after the Trump administration and Iran started to de-escalate at the end of March, moving toward a cease-fire on April 8. The standoff between the countries has not ended, a peace agreement has not been reached, but for stock investors, the expectation is that the disruption to oil markets and supply chains won’t last much longer.

And the economic impact of the war, at least as far as the United States is concerned, has been manageable. Data on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 2 percent in the first three months of this year, boosted by spending on infrastructure by many of the big tech companies that have led the S&P 500 stock index to repeated new highs.

This week, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, which collectively account for 20 percent of the S&P 500’s market value, said they had spent a combined $130 billion on data centers. The share prices of these members of the so-called Magnificent 7, a group of companies that also include Apple, Nvidia and Tesla, rose nearly 15 percent in April.

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Strong earnings in other industries have also buoyed the market. Roughly a third of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their financial results for the first quarter, and their average growth in earnings stands at roughly 15 percent, on course for a sixth straight double-digit quarterly rise.

Oil prices are a much shorter-term measure of investor sentiment than stock indexes. The oil market is primarily traded using futures contracts, which are derivatives that fix the price today for delivery at a specified date in the future. The most frequently cited oil prices refer to the next month or two. That means that changes in the conflict that could extend or shorten its duration by a few weeks show up in the price of oil but not necessarily in the stock market. Oil traders are fixated on the price of a barrel of crude in July, for example, while pension fund managers are thinking about market returns many years in the future.

This week, a deadlock over the future of Iran’s nuclear program appeared to threaten the fragile cease-fire with the United States, helping to push the price of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, to a four-year high, of over $120 per barrel on Thursday.

But investors appear to anticipate some sort of resolution the further out they look. Futures contracts for deliveries of Brent crude in December still trade below $90 a barrel.

“While the geopolitical environment remains fluid on a day-to-day basis, markets appear to be assigning a higher probability to a relatively near-term U.S. exit from the Middle East, alongside a normalization in global supply chains that could ultimately pressure oil prices lower,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.

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The timing of the Trump administration’s announcements of important changes in policy in the conflict with Iran have, to some extent, exacerbated the appearance of market moves — both on the way down and the way back up.

The war began after the market closed on the final day of February and the cease-fire was announced on the final day of March, so the stock market’s losses were concentrated in March and the recovery almost entirely captured in April.

There are reasons for trepidation among stock investors as the war enters its third month.

The conflict could drag on for longer than is currently expected. Oil prices with Brent futures contracts from September through November have all started to rise, moving above $90 in just over the past week. Although that means traders still expect the price of oil to drift downward in the coming months, crude is increasingly expected to stay elevated for longer, weighing on the economy. The government’s bond market also shows signs of lingering inflation risks stemming from the war, analysts have noted.

Many investors have also expressed a lack of conviction in the current rally, which is evident in the way investors are trading. Stock market trading volumes have been subdued through April, with some investors saying they have turned to the derivatives market to place bets on the market going higher, allowing them to profit if the rally continues but limit losses if the market falls again.

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“As long as the economy continues to grow and companies are able to grow earnings, we can see higher stock prices even in the face of higher energy prices and inflation,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. “However, the longer the war drags on, the more investors will grow nervous and we could see some pullbacks as fears ebb and flow.”

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