The same lessons keep repeating themselves. Investors are being reminded of just how volatile the digital asset ecosystem can be. The market for cryptocurrencies reached a peak valuation of around $4.4 trillion in October last year. Today, the market cap sits at $2.4 trillion, a loss of 45% (as of Feb. 18).

The smartest investors are sharpening their focus, figuring out what portfolio moves to make amid the turmoil. Here’s one high-conviction crypto to buy and one that should be avoided like the plague.

Buy the dominant cryptocurrency

Investors should consider buying Bitcoin (BTC 3.32%), the world’s leading digital asset that has pioneered the entire industry. Given that it represents 57% of the market, its price swings have an outsized impact. Bitcoin is 46% below its record.

Anyone who pays attention to history will quickly point out that these types of massive drops, which can be nerve-wracking when living through them, are extremely common. Bitcoin’s price has fallen more than 50% on numerous occasions. It’s hard to know exactly what’s causing the recent dip, with explanations ranging from large and early investors taking profits to investors worried about a hawkish Federal Reserve. There is no shortage of guesses.

What matters is that Bitcoin has a hard supply cap of 21 million units. It’s purely digital, transcends borders, is secure, and has ongoing adoption within the financial services industry and among regulators. In other words, the fundamentals are holding up.

Long-term investors should stay focused on these factors. In five or 10 years, Bitcoin’s price should be much higher.

Today’s Change

(-3.32%) $-2247.81

Current Price

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$65390.00

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$1.3T

Day’s Range

$64435.00 – $67695.00

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52wk Range

$60255.56 – $126079.89

Volume

46B

Avoid this meme token

On the other hand, investors shouldn’t touch Dogecoin with a 10-foot pole. What’s interesting is that this meme token has significantly outperformed Bitcoin over the past decade. However, it’s currently trading 86% off its peak from May 2021. And there are no signs of life that it can bounce back.

To its credit, Dogecoin was one of the earliest cryptocurrencies to hit the market. But it was created as nothing more than a joke. Its founders are no longer involved. And throughout its history, Dogecoin’s price has been supported by its community, which results in wild price movements based on hype. That community appears to be falling apart, given that Dogecoin’s price is so far below its record.

The market is realizing that Dogecoin has no real-world utility, other than being used by gamblers looking to score a quick profit. It’s not scarce, as the supply is constantly increasing. And it doesn’t have an expanding financial ecosystem being built around it. Keep this crypto out of your portfolio.

As many analysts are slashing their 2026 price targets for Bitcoin (BTC 1.28%), one top Wall Street investment firm is not. According to Bernstein, Bitcoin could still hit $150,000 by the end of the year.

Obviously, a lot needs to go right for Bitcoin for that to happen. But the world’s top cryptocurrency is capable of soaring in price by 120% this year. Here’s why.

“The weakest bear case in history”

Throughout its history, Bitcoin has experienced a number of boom-and-bust cycles. Typically, three years of boom are followed by one year of bust. Almost like clockwork, the price of Bitcoin collapses by more than 50% every four years. It happened in 2014, 2018, and 2022. And it now looks like it is happening in 2026. That helps to explain why market sentiment is so low on Bitcoin right now.

But Bernstein sees it differently. According to the firm, this is the “weakest bear case in history.” During previous crypto collapses, there have been insolvencies, bankruptcies, spectacular failures, and blow-ups. None of that has happened in 2026.

That’s why Bernstein describes the current situation as a “crisis of confidence,” and nothing more. And, to a large degree, the numbers bear this out. For example, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dipped below 10 (out of a possible 100), indicating wide-scale panic in the market. Once the index moves out of “extreme fear” territory (a reading of 20 or higher), Bitcoin could soar in value.

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin remains on track. Large asset managers and institutional investors continue to add Bitcoin to their portfolios. Large Wall Street firms continue to push out new Bitcoin-related products. Net inflows have returned to the spot Bitcoin ETFs. And Bitcoin treasury companies continue to buy Bitcoin (albeit at a scaled-back rate).

Image source: Getty Images.

All this suggests that the core investment thesis for Bitcoin remains valid. Now is no time to give up on Bitcoin, which has been the top-performing asset in the world for much of the past decade. It has routinely delivered triple-digit returns, and the price of Bitcoin has grown exponentially over the past 15 years.

Is Bitcoin a risk asset or a safe-haven asset?

It’s also undeniable that Bitcoin has lost some of its luster as “digital gold.” Just 12 months ago, hedge fund managers were extolling the virtues of Bitcoin as a potential safe-haven asset. Some even compared it to gold as a long-term store of value.

Bitcoin / U.S. dollar chart by TradingView

But ever since October, the price of gold — as measured by the performance of the iShares Gold Trust (IAU +1.94%) — has skyrocketed in value, while Bitcoin has nosedived. The two assets are now moving in completely opposite directions, and it’s easy to see why money is moving out of Bitcoin and into gold. Even Bernstein acknowledges that Bitcoin is now trading like a “liquidity-sensitive risk asset.”

But that’s what’s needed for Bitcoin to break out and deliver truly explosive upside potential. By the halfway point of 2026, I fully expect market sentiment on Bitcoin to shift. As long as Bitcoin can tread water for the next few months, it’s capable of doubling in value to hit $150,000 by the end of the year.