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Is OpenAI Falling Further Behind in the A.I. Race?

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Is OpenAI Falling Further Behind in the A.I. Race?

Andrew here. We’ve got an exclusive on Barry Diller’s plan to overhaul IAC and change its name to People.

We’re also looking at whether the criminal case against Jay Powell is really over, and whether OpenAI has fallen behind its own expectations — and what that would mean for its race to go public. More below.

Until yesterday, the conversation around OpenAI was about Elon Musk’s lawsuit against the artificial intelligence giant.

But OpenAI may have bigger problems.

A new report raises questions about the ambitious spending plans of its C.E.O., Sam Altman, and the company’s standing in the A.I. race.

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OpenAI has missed its user and revenue targets, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing anonymous sources. Internally, it had sought to hit one billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025, a goal it still hasn’t announced, and has seen users defect to rivals.

Sarah Friar, its C.F.O., has told fellow executives that she’s worried about paying for future computing contracts at the current business trajectory, The Journal adds, while directors have been re-examining its data center plans.

Altman and Friar told The Journal that any suggestion that the company would pull back on computing power investments was “ridiculous.”

The reporting amplifies worries that OpenAI is losing ground, as Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude take more market share, especially in the hugely important enterprise market.

The company last week introduced an A.I. model that it says outperforms on many benchmarks. And it has redoubled efforts to make its Codex A.I. coding tool more competitive against Anthropic’s Claude Code.

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Why that matters: Altman has embraced hugely expensive ambitions to expand the company’s computing capacity. But OpenAI has had to pull back on building its own expansive data center clusters, given pushback from potential lenders.

If it’s falling further behind on business goals, that could further constrain OpenAI’s growth initiatives.

OpenAI is already taking a risk by revamping its relationship with Microsoft, historically its biggest backer. The two companies said on Monday that OpenAI would now be free to provide its models on other cloud providers, but that it also would trim a key revenue-sharing arrangement with Microsoft.

OpenAI says it now has more business flexibility. But Martin Peers of The Information questioned that premise, since it’s unclear whether Amazon’s AWS customers would be willing to switch over from Claude.

What about the I.P.O.? Remember that some executives want to take the company public by year end. Is that still possible? (Shares of companies linked to OpenAI, including SoftBank and Oracle, were down on The Journal’s report.)

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A man accused in the White House correspondents’ dinner attack is charged. Federal prosecutors formally accused Cole Tomas Allen of trying to assassinate President Trump; a note that the authorities said had been written by him appeared to express anger about the administration. Some Republicans in Congress amplified Trump’s claim that the episode strengthened his desire for a White House ballroom.

Oil prices climb as Trump spurns Iran’s latest offer. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, surpassed $111 on Tuesday after the president on Monday said he was unsatisfied with Tehran’s proposal, which called for resuming full ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — including the end of a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports — but left unresolved the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, officials said.

Shares in Bayer fall after a setback at the Supreme Court. Some justices appeared skeptical on Monday of the German conglomerate’s argument, backed by the Trump administration, that state-level lawsuits over the safety of its Roundup weedkiller should be barred. The E.P.A. has ruled Roundup as safe; a Supreme Court ruling could complicate product safety regulations in the U.S.

Barry Diller is hitting the reset button. Again.

The media mogul plans to announce on Tuesday a broad overhaul of IAC, his digital media empire, DealBook is first to report. Its holding company will rename itself People, after its magazine empire, which will become a bigger focus of operations. And it will lean heavily into its 26 percent stake in MGM.

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In the current evolution of the e-commerce market, Diller told DealBook in an interview, new opportunities in areas in which IAC has historically invested big — including online search and marketplaces — became few and far between.

Don’t call this a sunset for Diller’s empire. The media mogul pushed back against the idea that he’s winding down the business. “That’s exactly what they said the last time this happened,” he said. “I like that it’s good clay.”

In a memo to employees seen by DealBook, Diller summed up the company’s evolution over about 30 years, from an owner of local TV stations to support the Home Shopping Network into what it is today:

I bought into little Silver King Communications in 1995. It had about $40 million in sales, and as it evolved over the next decades, we became HSN, then USA Networks and finally, in 2003, IAC/Interactive Corp, and then even more simply, IAC Inc.

People, the company, will get leaner, as it shifts to a focused media conglomerate from a sprawling digital one:

  • It will cut 77 positions, and some high-level executives like its C.F.O., Christopher Halpin, and its chief legal officer, Kendall Handler, will depart. The company employs about 3,500 people.

  • The existing leadership team at its People division, led by Neil Vogel, will take the reins of the parent company.

  • The company expects to generate about $40 million in annual savings.

Diller is particularly excited about what he calls “inversions,” big investments People can make in branded products and services, based on its magazine titles. Instead of licensing brands to others, he sees an opportunity to build or buy businesses that take advantage of the authority of People’s publications.

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And while Diller-owned titles like People and Southern Living may not have the same sparkle as Condé Nast’s magazines, they’re significantly larger and more profitable.

The bottom line: Diller’s management philosophy of “getting smaller to get bigger” will be tested once more.


The criminal investigation trailing Jay Powell, the Fed chair, has been quieted — at least for now.

But will that be enough to end the succession drama hanging over the central bank? On that matter, Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney in Washington, is worth watching, legal experts told Niko Gallogly.

Recap: On Friday, Pirro said the Justice Department would drop its investigation into Powell over his handling of the $2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s headquarters.

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The move mollified Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, who has a key vote on the Senate Banking Committee. He had threatened to withhold support for the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick to lead the Fed, until the investigation was closed.

What stands in the way of Pirro reopening an inquiry? Very little, legal experts say. “A U.S. attorney has exceptionally broad discretion to open and close investigations,” Jonathan Shaub, a professor at the University of Kentucky’s law school, told DealBook. “Once they’ve gotten the confirmation through, if they want to reopen it, she could do that.”

Another factor: Pirro, a Trump loyalist, could continue the investigation in secrecy. “Pirro has the discretion to say whatever she wants on the record, but do the opposite behind the scenes,” Jed Shugerman, a law professor at Boston University, told DealBook.

It’s worth noting that Pirro has said she would “not hesitate” to reopen the investigation. And Todd Blanche, the acting attorney general, signaled in an interview with NBC on “Meet the Press” on Sunday that the investigation remained active, though, as he said, it will now be handled by the inspector general.

The big threat remains. Dropping the investigation “gives cover” to Tillis to advance Warsh’s nomination, but it does little to stop the Trump administration’s attacks on the Fed, Shugerman said. “In reality, President Trump’s threats against Powell” and the administration’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, “are bells that cannot be unrung.”

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Central bank watchers fear that Trump’s threats to Fed independence could weaken the institution. Now all eyes are on Powell, as Fed policymakers convene their two-day meeting on Tuesday. Will Powell stay, or will he go?


The energy shock wrought by the war in the Middle East has established winners and losers across the globe, and thrust some countries into an outsize role in international markets.

Tiny, oil-rich Guyana is one. The South American country has become a surprising power player amid the war’s upheaval, Vivienne Walt reports.

The nation’s president, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, has been courted by President Trump, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. On Friday, Wall Street will focus on how Guyana factors into Big Oil’s profit push, when Exxon Mobil and Chevron report first-quarter results.

Exxon is so far the biggest winner in Guyana’s bonanza. It made a giant discovery in 2015 in the country’s offshore Stabroek block, which holds an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and gas — enough to keep producing for decades. Exxon has a 45 percent controlling stake in the project, alongside Chevron (through its acquisition last year of Hess) and a Chinese producer, CNOOC.

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As of late 2025, the consortium was producing more than 900,000 barrels of oil a day. Exxon forecasts capacity could expand to 1.7 million barrels per day by 2030.

“Guyana is going to be a very, very important part of Exxon’s business in the region,” Roxanna Vigil, a regional expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DealBook.

Others are muscling in. Guyana has asked Indian companies to bid on new drilling sites when they come up for auction this year. The country has made it clear that it wants closer ties with New Delhi, which has helped build roads and a stadium for cricket-crazed Guyanese. Negotiations between the countries to build Guyana’s first refinery are underway.

Last decade, Exxon and Hess secured deals in which they pay the government of Guyana a relatively small royalty fee of 2 percent. It’s unlikely that new partners, including India, will get similar terms. “We have learned from the mistake,” Ali told DealBook in a 2024 interview.

Another issue hanging over Guyana: Venezuela has a decades-old claim over about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, including some of Stabroek. That dispute is expected to go to trial in the International Court of Justice next month.

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The verdict will be widely watched, as it could determine control of some of the richest oil fields in the region — and which oil producers reap the profits.

Deals

  • Shell agreed to buy ARC Resources, a Canadian shale oil and gas producer, for $13.6 billion, the oil giant’s biggest deal in more than a decade. (Bloomberg)

  • Silver Rock Capital Partners, a spinoff from Michael Milken’s family office, has raised more than $4 billion for a private credit fund. (FT)

Technology and artificial intelligence

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We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

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Volvo to pay $197 million after hidden pollution device found in California truck engines

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Volvo to pay 7 million after hidden pollution device found in California truck engines

Volvo Group North America has agreed to pay nearly $197 million to resolve allegations from California regulators that company’s heavy-duty truck engines violated California emissions standards and certification requirements.

About 10,000 diesel truck engines manufactured by Volvo were equipped with an undisclosed device, causing them to release excessive levels of smog-forming pollution across California, according to the California Air Resources Board, the state agency that regulates air pollution and greenhouse gases.

Volvo is developing a software fix to repair many of these vehicles and extend their warranties at no cost to the owners. Eligible truck owners are expected to be notified of a non-mandatory recall on these trucks next year.

CARB found inconsistencies in the Swedish automaker’s data while testing trucks with Volvo engines from model year 2010 to 2016, which resulted in the investigation and ensuing settlement.

“This case underscores why CARB’s compliance testing and strong enforcement are essential to protecting the state’s air quality and public health,” said Lauren Sanchez, chair of the state Air Resources Board. “Our responsibility goes beyond adopting regulations — we are committed to upholding them by identifying violations and holding companies accountable for meeting emissions standards.”

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Under the settlement, Volvo will pay $17.5 million in civil penalties to reimburse the state for the cost of the investigation and support its vehicle-testing operations. Another $179 million will go toward investing in clean-air initiatives, such as electric vehicle incentive programs, to offset air pollution that resulted from the alleged violations.

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Commentary: A surge in Nevada data center construction threatens the electricity supply for 49,000 Californians

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Commentary: A surge in Nevada data center construction threatens the electricity supply for 49,000 Californians

Local opposition has blocked or delayed more than a dozen huge data center projects around the country. But these Californians don’t get a vote on Nevada projects that could affect their electricity supply.

Those big data centers being built for artificial intelligence firms are in bad odor nationwide.

Seven in 10 Americans oppose projects in their local communities, according to a recent Gallup poll. More than a dozen, valued at some $64 billion, have been blocked or delayed by local opposition in recent years.

But what happens when the people directly affected by these project plans don’t get a vote?

Data centers did not influence this decision.

— NV Energy, explaining its move to end service to 49,000 California customers. But is it telling the truth?

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That’s the quandary faced by 49,000 residents living on the California side of Lake Tahoe, mostly in the city of South Lake Tahoe. The surge in construction of data centers in Nevada is prompting the Nevada utility that supplies 75% of the Californians’ electricity to cut them off next year.

The California-regulated utility that carries the electricity over the state line to their homes and businesses has assured them that it will find alternative sources to protect them from losing service — but hasn’t promised that their rates won’t increase because of the transition.

“It’s like we don’t exist,” Danielle Hughes, the head of a local energy nonprofit and an advocate for the customers, told me. The crisis facing those residents is just the latest in a long line of indignities they have suffered thanks to several unique characteristics of their energy market, Hughes says.

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For one thing, they are permanent residents of the community — teachers, firefighters, police, and service workers at the hotels, restaurants and resorts that bring in a tidal wave of visitors every winter. The latter, as well as vacation-home owners and renters, generate seasonal electricity demands that drive up power costs year-round.

That means that the permanent residents are in effect subsizing the visitors, even though they’re lower-income ratepayers than the generally well-heeled vacationers.

Before delving deeper into the issues for the permanent residents, let’s examine the effect of the large-scale data centers being built and proposed in Nevada, and more generally coast to coast.

Nevada has emerged as a prime location for data centers, in part due to the wide open, undeveloped acreage available for construction. More than 60 data centers have sprung up around Reno and Las Vegas, with many more slated to rise in the northern part of the state, according to a survey by the Desert Research Institute, a Nevada nonprofit.

“We’re right at the epicenter for global expansion” of data centers, observed Sean McKenna, a co-author of the report.

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The existing data centers consumed 22% of Nevada’s electric generating capacity in 2024, DRI calculated. If all those under construction and on the drawing board are completed, that figure would rise to 35% by 2030. NV Energy, the Nevada utility that provides the electricity for the California side of Lake Tahoe, estimates that the electricity demand for just the 12 projects being planned would come to 5,900 megawatts — nearly three times the generating capacity of Hoover Dam.

That construction frenzy is likely to bring some of the same drawbacks that have provoked local communities to militate against data centers — not only pressure on existing electricity capacity, but also a voracious appetite for water due to the cooling needs of the computerized equipment managing the data for AI applications. Residents in the neighborhoods of data centers have also complained of incessant noise coming from their 24/7 operations.

With global warming driving up temperatures in Nevada’s semiarid and desert zones, they add, residents will find themselves in a contest with data center owners for an already inadequate supply of power in the state. DRI warns: “Local utilities and ratepayers in data center cluster regions like Northern Nevada also risk bearing the costs of subsidizing AI and computing services as power grids expand their infrastructure.”

In many communities, the result has been a vigorous and vocal backlash, including in California. They’ve packed town halls, prompted state and local political leaders to legislate limits on their growth or even to ban them.

That brings us back to the situation around Lake Tahoe.

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In terms of its electric utility service, the region has long been an outlier. About 25% of its power comes from two solar farms operated by Liberty Utilities, but the rest comes from NV Energy; the reason is that it’s unconnected with the California transmission grid but accessible via a line from Nevada.

As a result, it falls into the cracks among energy regulators. Because it’s not part of the California grid, the California Public Utilities Commission has only limited jurisdiction over its service, although it has the authority to approve its electricity rates. The Nevada Public Utilities Commission doesn’t oversee the customers’ service at all, because they’re not Nevada residents.

The region is also unusual because its peak energy demand comes in the winter; most of the rest of California peaks in the summer, when air conditioners are on full blast.

Hughes and other residents have maintained that because the CPUC hasn’t modeled electricity demand for their small region, they have been paying for infrastructure that doesn’t serve them.

“We’ve been paying for assets in Nevada,” Hughes says, “without it being tracked by the state of California.”

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Liberty does charge permanent residents in the Tahoe area about 2% less than the rate for part-time residents, but the discount should be much larger, Hughes says. Liberty didn’t respond to my request for comment.

Earlier this year, NV Energy informed Liberty that it would no longer serve as its wholesale energy provider after mid-May next year, and urged Liberty to make haste to secure an alternate supplier.

Liberty promised its customers in a recent statement that they “will not be left without service” as a result of the change. “This does not mean the power is shutting off,” Eric Schwarzrock, president of Liberty Utilities, said at a South Lake Tahoe City Council meeting last month, according to the news site SFGate. “Energy companies, utilities, large customers change energy supply frequently.”

Liberty and NV Energy both attributed the change to a preexisting agreement that anticipated that NV Energy would eventually cease providing power to Liberty’s customers, although their interpretations of the deal and the impetus for the change appear to be at odds.

The “long-standing agreements and planning assumptions … date back more than a decade,” NV Energy said in a May 14 statement. That was “well before data center growth became a factor,” the utility said. “Data centers did not influence this decision.”

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That is, to be charitable, dubious. How do we know? Liberty said so in a March 6 letter to the California Public Utilities Commission, requesting permission to take “immediate action” to find alternative providers.

The letter stated that Liberty had expected its arrangement with NV Energy to “continue indefinitely.” During their last negotiations for an extension of the deal, however, NV Energy informed Liberty that it would cease serving Liberty on May 31, 2027, with a possible extension to Dec. 31.

“This change of stance by NV Energy was a surprise to Liberty,” the letter said. Liberty ascribed NV Energy’s decision to new “market circumstances” in the latter’s home service region. Among them: “A number of entities are seeking to add large loads such as data centers into the area.”

NV Energy says it will continue serving Liberty’s customers until Liberty secures a new supplier, even if it misses the May 2027 deadline; the ultimate deadline is Dec. 31, 2027, when NV Energy expects to complete its 350-mile Greenlink West transmission line between Las Vegas and the Reno area, part of a $4.2-billion infrastructure upgrade.

Yet that still leaves an open question that should make those customers nervous: How much will they be paying for power?

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In its recent statement to customers, Liberty made only the vaguest of promises. “While no utiulity can predict the exact future cost of energy,” it said, “affordability is a primary goal” in its search for new suppliers. “With a competitive bidding process, we aim to find a cost-effective solution for your monthly bill.”

But any new supplier would have to come from outside California, because of the region’s lack of any connection with the state’s grid. And generators in nearby states face their own rising demands from data centers, drought and global warming.

The drawbacks of these massive industrial installations are beginning to be felt by their neighbors, including higher electricity prices and dwindling water supplies. They’re only going to get worse.

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Video: Jury Rejects Elon Musk’s Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Microsoft

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Video: Jury Rejects Elon Musk’s Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Microsoft

new video loaded: Jury Rejects Elon Musk’s Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Microsoft

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Jury Rejects Elon Musk’s Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Microsoft

Elon Musk had accused OpenAI of “stealing a charity” by attaching a commercial company to Open AI, which was founded as a nonprofit. But a jury ruled that the statute of limitations had expired.

“The evidence that Mr. Musk’s lawsuit was an after-the-fact contrivance by a competitor was overwhelming.” “This reminds me of key moments in this country’s history. The siege of Charleston, the Battle of Bunker Hill, these were major losses for Americans. But who won the war? And this one is not over. And to sum it up, I can sum it up in one word: appeal.”

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Elon Musk had accused OpenAI of “stealing a charity” by attaching a commercial company to Open AI, which was founded as a nonprofit. But a jury ruled that the statute of limitations had expired.

By Meg Felling

May 18, 2026

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