Cruise ship visitation to Hawaii has set a course for its strongest rebound in nearly two decades, but new state rules requiring cleaner-burning fuels and expanded “green fees” are sparking legal challenges and raising questions about the industry’s future.

Data from the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism suggests 2026 could mark a milestone. Based on the capacity of ships requesting port calls and assuming an average occupancy of 85%, next year is projected to be the best for cruise arrivals since 2007, when more than half a million passengers visited the islands.

Yet choppy seas loom. As Hawaii’s tourism industry recovers from pandemic-era declines and the devastating 2023 Maui wildfires, cruise visitation has become a flash point in debates over economic resilience and environmental responsibility.

Last month, the state Department of Transportation finalized its Energy Security &Waste Reduction Plan mandating a 50% cut in transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 and net- negative emissions by 2045. Cruise ships may continue operating in Hawaii only if they transition to cleaner-burning fuels and submit annual emissions reports.

Shannon McKee, president of Access Cruise, a Hawai‘i Tourism Authority contractor, said Hawaii remains a highly desirable destination that consistently ranks among the top 10 globally for cruise satisfaction. But cruise lines are watching closely to see how the new rules will be enforced and whether the state’s timeline to build the infrastructure needed to support cleaner fuels aligns with the industry’s transition.

Meanwhile, Act 96, the state’s new green fee, raises the transient accommodations tax rate by 0.75% beginning in 2026 and, for the first time, applies the tax to cruise ships docking in Hawaii. The fee is expected to generate about $100 million annually across cruise lines and lodging companies, with revenues earmarked for environmental stewardship and climate resilience.

Gov. Josh Green said upon signing Act 96, “Hawaii is at the forefront of protecting our natural resources, recognizing their fundamental role in sustaining the ecological, cultural and economic health of Hawaii.”

He added, “As an island chain, Hawaii cannot wait for the next disaster to hit before taking action. We must build resiliency now, and the Green Fee will provide the necessary financing to ensure resources are available for our future.”

Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawai‘i Hotel Alliance, said expanding the fee promotes equity across the tourism industry.

Cruise lines, represented by the Cruise Lines International Association, have sued, arguing the law is preempted by federal protections for maritime commerce.

“Hawaii’s Act 96 conflicts with longstanding constitutional safeguards that protect maritime commerce and freedom of navigation,” the association said in a statement, citing the U.S. Constitution’s Tonnage Clause and the Rivers and Harbors Act.

A U.S. District Court judge in Honolulu is expected to rule on the case within the next month. CLIA said the judge is considering an injunction, which could block the Jan. 1 start date.

Compliance gap

DOT’s final Energy Security &Waste Reduction Plan is less severe than its initial draft, which proposed cutting out-of-state cruise visits by 50% by 2030 and 75% by 2035. The draft also proposed eliminating foreign-­flagged cruise ships by 2035 and placing restrictions on ships carrying over 3,000 passengers.

Those measures were projected to reduce 56,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide by 2030 and 82,000 metric tons by 2045.

Pushback from HTA and local businesses during the plan’s 65-day public review process over the summer led to a compromise.

HTA interim President and CEO Caroline Anderson warned that deep cuts would barely dent overall state emissions — just 0.29% by 2030 and 0.41% by 2045 — while stripping away hundreds of millions of dollars in economic benefits. Instead, HTA urged investments in shore power and alignment with global maritime goals.

Global forecast

Worldwide, cruise capacity is forecast to grow 10% by 2028, with new ships adopting cleaner fuels and advanced waste systems — changes Hawaii hopes to leverage.

Anderson said DOT has been open to hearing the tourism agency’s concerns, and “moving forward we will continue to be in conversation to make sure that they understand the cruise industry’s perspectives as well the importance of the industry for Hawaii.”

DOT Director Ed Sniffen said in a statement that feedback will guide the department as it works to “lower emissions and increase our energy security, while meeting Hawaii’s transportation needs.”

“HDOT can take immediate actions by expanding EV public charging and having incentives for cleaner fuels. We will continue to work on the dynamic plan which will be updated annually with community input, new data and analysis,” he added.

A key sticking point, however, is that CLIA and the International Maritime Organization have set a 2050 net-zero emissions target, five years later than Hawaii‘s 2045 net-negative mandate, creating a compliance gap.

“If we can hit targets prior to 2050 date globally, obviously it works in everybody’s favor,” McKee said, though she acknowledged alignment remains a challenge.

She added, “The (European Union) has really been the front-runner in leading the way on these large sustainability initiatives, and the (European Union) has been working very closely with CLIA. It’s hard to ascertain what is achievable and what is not achievable at this point in time as things are moving so rapidly.”

As of August, 45 cruise lines were CLIA members, representing 90% of global oceangoing capacity with 310 ships and passenger capacity of 637,847. According to the association’s Annual Environmental Technologies and Practices Report, only 19 are dual-fuel ships, with 23 fuel-flexible vessels expected by year’s end. Currently, 166 CLIA ships can plug in at port, with 273 expected by 2036.

CLIA said its members are investing tens of billions of dollars in new ships with multifuel capability, expanding shoreside electricity and deploying advanced waste and water systems. But the group warned that Hawaii lacks the infrastructure to provide alternative fuels at scale.

“Any requirement or deadline needs to align with harmonized regulations and the practical availability of fuels and supporting port infrastructure,” CLIA said.

Hawaii is not on the list that CLIA has compiled of 38 ports worldwide with onshore power supply, nor on its list of 20 funded or 30 planned ports.

Economic stakes

Cruise tourism remains a relatively small but vital segment of Hawaii’s visitor economy.

In 2024, DBEDT reported that total economic output from cruise ships was $636.6 million, with $207 million from foreign-flagged cruise ship visitors.

Tapani Vuori, general manager of the Maui Ocean Center, said cruise passengers accounted for just 2% to 4% of the aquarium’s visitor base in recent years, compared to nearly 19% during the mid-2000s peak when three ships were homeported in Hawaii.

He noted Maui’s economy remains fragile, with visitor arrivals still down nearly 20% from pre-COVID-19 levels and lingering challenges from housing shortages, inflation and workforce constraints.The 2023 wildfires compounded cultural and community tensions, leaving residents wary of overtourism but reliant on visitor spending, Vuori said.

Even at reduced levels, cruise ships generate millions in spending across the neighbor islands.

Gibson said passengers contribute to airline revenues and hotels, as many add pre- and post-stays to their itineraries. They also support food and retail businesses and attractions.

“The cruise industry is a great partner,” McKee said, noting that ships provide consistent contracts for small businesses and bring first-time visitors who often return.

She added that cruises bolster shoulder seasons in September, October and early November when tourism typically slows. Cruise ships also proved resilient, returning quickly after the Maui wildfires and 2018 Kilauea eruption, McKee said.

“Cruise ship passengers love to come to Hawaii and always rate it very highly,” she said.

Still, Gibson warned that if Hawaii regulations diverge from global timelines, the state risks losing arrivals.

“We will lose ground to other destinations that absolutely will welcome the cruise ship industry,” he said.

CLIA also raised concerns about costs for passengers if Act 96 is expanded to cruise ships as planned. For example, the association said that on a seven-day Norwegian Cruise Line Pride of America itinerary, travelers already pay about $200 per person in port fees and taxes.

The new TAT could raise that to $350 per person, for a total of $1,400 in taxes for a family of four.

CLIA said regulations and increased taxes and fees historically impact consumer demand, so the association and its members “remain concerned that the increased cost of cruises in Hawaii will deter bookings.”