Democrats are banking on a high-stakes, long-shot win in Iowa.

The Hawkeye State voted for President Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024 and hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Still, Democrats are optimistic that a perfect storm of soaring gas and healthcare costs, tariffs and an unpopular president could help them flip the Senate seat blue.

But Democrats first must get through a contentious June 2 primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek before they can even turn their attention to the presumptive GOP nominee, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa).

The clash is a microcosm of the establishment moderate-versus-progressive insurgent battle raging within the Democratic Party, an ideological tussle that could cost them in November.

Wahls, a more left-wing candidate backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), has made opposition to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer a major part of his message.

“When I’m doing my stump speech and tell people that on the first day of this campaign, I made a promise not to support Chuck Schumer for leader, the room — without any explanation — just spontaneously bursts into applause,” Wahls said in an interview.

Turek, who flipped a GOP-held Iowa Senate seat blue in 2022 and is the favored pick of Schumer’s allies, says Wahls is focused on the wrong issues.

“Wahls is out here running against Schumer. I’m out here running against Donald Trump and Ashley Hinson,” Turek declared. “In the thousands of doors that I’ve knocked, I’ve never heard a single Iowan talk to me about minority leadership.”

Wahls and Turek face off in the first head-to-head primary debate tonight. Warren is stumping for Wahls in Des Moines on May 10.

Some ad news. Outside groups are taking notice — and spending big. VoteVets is dropping another $800,000 on a pro-Turek ad buy starting Tuesday. The group, dedicated to electing Democrats with military service, has spent $6.7 million boosting Turek to date. In the new spot, a retired Army National Guard colonel says Turek will root out corruption and oppose Trump.

We’ll note Turek isn’t a veteran. But Turek’s father served in Vietnam, and his exposure to Agent Orange while serving contributed to Turek’s being born with spina bifida.

VoteVets first started spending for Turek on March 24.

Electability squabbles. In conversations with the Iowa Democratic hopefuls, both candidates insist they’re the only person who can beat Hinson in the fall.

“Zach comes from the bluest district in the state, a [Kamala] Harris +38 district. He’s never even run against a Republican,” Turek said. “This isn’t the time to be experimenting.”

Wahls countered that his record of opposing Democratic leadership will resonate with disaffected voters of all stripes.

“It is easier to draw that contrast [with Hinson] if you can tell people that you don’t owe Chuck Schumer a damn thing and that you don’t care about party bosses in either party,” Wahls said. “We can draw that contrast much, much more effectively than Josh can.”

Turek said he didn’t know if he would vote for Schumer as leader if elected.

“I need to get up there. I’m not measuring the drapes first,” Turek said.

State of play. Despite Iowa’s recent red tilt, Turek and Wahls argue that because the state’s farm industry has been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs and higher gas prices, the president is no longer popular among Iowans.

Democrats are also optimistic that gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand will provide a lift to the rest of the ticket. Sand, the state auditor, is running a well-received campaign and is polling competitively with the GOP frontrunner, Rep. Randy Feenstra.

Iowa is a reach state for Democrats and exists outside of the core Senate map for the party. But in a blue wave environment where control of the chamber is in play, Democratic wins in states like Iowa could help push the party to the 51 seats needed to win a majority.

GOP view. Hinson has boosted Wahls by labeling him the “soon-to-be Democrat nominee” in social media posts. It’s a sign that some Iowa Republicans view Wahls as the more preferable general election candidate.

“With momentum building behind Wahls, time will tell if Schumer can carry his candidate across the finish line,” NRSC spokesperson Samantha Cantrell said in a statement.

Republicans are gleeful at the spate of competitive primaries dividing Democrats in key states. After the Maine primary where progressives came out on top, there are also Schumer-skeptical liberals running in Minnesota and Michigan.

Opposing Schumer may appeal to some Democratic primary voters, but the sentiment doesn’t directly impact his standing as leader. As long as Senate Democrats win the races they need to win in November, the New York Democrat is unlikely to be challenged for his job.

Happening today. Voters in Ohio and Indiana head to the ballot box for primary day.

Republicans will decide their candidate to face Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Derek Merrin is the favorite against state Rep. Josh Williams and former ICE official Madison Sheahan. This is a rightward-shifting district.

Air Force veteran Eric Conroy is favored to take on Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman.

Indiana. There aren’t any steeply competitive primaries in any battleground seats in Indiana. The one to watch is Indiana’s 1st District, where Republicans have an outside chance to knock off Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. Republicans are excited by Barb Regnitz.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A child is dead after being struck by an Amazon delivery vehicle Monday night in Kansas City.

The Kansas City Police Department responded to the incident just before 6:30 p.m. in the area of East Missouri Avenue and Lexington Avenue in Kansas City’s Historic Northeast neighborhood.

Preliminary investigation indicates that a marked Amazon delivery vehicle had just completed a package delivery in the area. Police said after the delivery, the driver of the vehicle began traveling westbound on East 3rd Terrace toward Woodland Avenue.

Police said at the same time, a child, under the age of 5, was playing in a grassy area of a nearby public park. The child entered the roadway and was struck by the Amazon delivery vehicle.

The Amazon driver initially stopped at the scene but left before officers arrived, according to police.

Police said a family member attempted to follow the Amazon vehicle and inform the driver of what had happened. The driver denied involvement and left the area.

The child was pronounced dead as a result of the injuries, according to police.

Kansas City police said the investigation remains active and ongoing.

President Donald Trump’s campaign to politically punish Republicans who stand in his way moves through Indiana on Tuesday, when seven state senators face Trump-backed primary challengers.

In neighboring Ohio, primaries for U.S. Senate and governor will lock in the candidates for two major races with national implications.

And in Michigan, voters in a bellwether district will fill a vacancy in the state Senate, a race with implications for the balance of power in a battleground state.

Here’s what to watch for.

How strong is Trump’s grip on the Republican Party?

Trump is taking aim at seven Republican state senators in Indiana who opposed his plan to redraw congressional district boundaries to help the party gain seats in the U.S. House.

Groups allied with the president have spent millions on advertising, an extraordinary flood of cash and attention into races that are typically low profile.

The races are a test of Trump’s enduring grip over his party as Republicans grow increasingly anxious about the midterm elections in November.

The results will signal to Republicans everywhere about how big a price they’ll pay with their voters if they distance themselves from Trump even as his popularity fades. And it will show the president whether he can still credibly threaten consequences for Republicans who cross him.

The Trump-targeted state senators all represent districts he carried in 2024, mostly by 20 percentage points or more.

The key races to watch are districts 1, 11, 19, 21, 23, 38 and 41.

Ohio races get started in earnest

The state’s primary is the wind up to the big show. Although Ohio has become increasingly conservative, Democrats believe their path back to a U.S. Senate majority runs through the state.

They’re putting their hopes behind former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost Ohio’s other Senate seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024.

He’s expected to face off with Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed last year to fill the vacancy created when JD Vance became vice president.

The race is a special election to fill the last two years of Vance’s term.

In the campaign for governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has parlayed his national name recognition, tech industry connections and alliance with Trump into a record fundraising haul. He’s largely ignoring Republican rival Casey Putsch, focusing his rallies and television ads on the general election.

An engineer and vehicle designer who calls himself “The Car Guy,” Putsch has attracted fans with provocative YouTube videos that troll Ramaswamy and criticize national Republicans over their handling of the Epstein files, positions on energy-guzzling data centers and support for Israel.

Amy Acton, Ohio’s former public health director, is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. She played a key role in the state’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Will Democrats sweep another special election?

The special election for a state Senate seat in central Michigan carries outsized importance.

It’s another test of enthusiasm in a series of special elections that have swung almost universally toward Democrats since Trump returned to the White House. It also could affect the balance of power in the Michigan State Capitol. A Democratic victory would give the party a firm majority in the state Senate, while a Republican win would deadlock the chamber in a 19-19 tie.

The district is closely matched. Democrat Kamala Harris beat Trump there by less than 1 point in the 2024 presidential election.

The seat has been vacant for more than a year, since Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet resigned to take a seat in Congress.

Democrats are showing surprising strength in special elections and off-year contests across the country, winning races in unexpected places and significantly narrowing the gap, even when they fall short.

There’s no guarantee the trend will continue through the midterms, when turnout will be much higher, but it has nonetheless energized Democrats and spooked Republicans worried about keeping their congressional majorities.