Democrats are banking on a high-stakes, long-shot win in Iowa.

The Hawkeye State voted for President Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024 and hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Still, Democrats are optimistic that a perfect storm of soaring gas and healthcare costs, tariffs and an unpopular president could help them flip the Senate seat blue.

But Democrats first must get through a contentious June 2 primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek before they can even turn their attention to the presumptive GOP nominee, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa).

The clash is a microcosm of the establishment moderate-versus-progressive insurgent battle raging within the Democratic Party, an ideological tussle that could cost them in November.

Wahls, a more left-wing candidate backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), has made opposition to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer a major part of his message.

“When I’m doing my stump speech and tell people that on the first day of this campaign, I made a promise not to support Chuck Schumer for leader, the room — without any explanation — just spontaneously bursts into applause,” Wahls said in an interview.

Turek, who flipped a GOP-held Iowa Senate seat blue in 2022 and is the favored pick of Schumer’s allies, says Wahls is focused on the wrong issues.

“Wahls is out here running against Schumer. I’m out here running against Donald Trump and Ashley Hinson,” Turek declared. “In the thousands of doors that I’ve knocked, I’ve never heard a single Iowan talk to me about minority leadership.”

Wahls and Turek face off in the first head-to-head primary debate tonight. Warren is stumping for Wahls in Des Moines on May 10.

Some ad news. Outside groups are taking notice — and spending big. VoteVets is dropping another $800,000 on a pro-Turek ad buy starting Tuesday. The group, dedicated to electing Democrats with military service, has spent $6.7 million boosting Turek to date. In the new spot, a retired Army National Guard colonel says Turek will root out corruption and oppose Trump.

We’ll note Turek isn’t a veteran. But Turek’s father served in Vietnam, and his exposure to Agent Orange while serving contributed to Turek’s being born with spina bifida.

VoteVets first started spending for Turek on March 24.

Electability squabbles. In conversations with the Iowa Democratic hopefuls, both candidates insist they’re the only person who can beat Hinson in the fall.

“Zach comes from the bluest district in the state, a [Kamala] Harris +38 district. He’s never even run against a Republican,” Turek said. “This isn’t the time to be experimenting.”

Wahls countered that his record of opposing Democratic leadership will resonate with disaffected voters of all stripes.

“It is easier to draw that contrast [with Hinson] if you can tell people that you don’t owe Chuck Schumer a damn thing and that you don’t care about party bosses in either party,” Wahls said. “We can draw that contrast much, much more effectively than Josh can.”

Turek said he didn’t know if he would vote for Schumer as leader if elected.

“I need to get up there. I’m not measuring the drapes first,” Turek said.

State of play. Despite Iowa’s recent red tilt, Turek and Wahls argue that because the state’s farm industry has been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs and higher gas prices, the president is no longer popular among Iowans.

Democrats are also optimistic that gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand will provide a lift to the rest of the ticket. Sand, the state auditor, is running a well-received campaign and is polling competitively with the GOP frontrunner, Rep. Randy Feenstra.

Iowa is a reach state for Democrats and exists outside of the core Senate map for the party. But in a blue wave environment where control of the chamber is in play, Democratic wins in states like Iowa could help push the party to the 51 seats needed to win a majority.

GOP view. Hinson has boosted Wahls by labeling him the “soon-to-be Democrat nominee” in social media posts. It’s a sign that some Iowa Republicans view Wahls as the more preferable general election candidate.

“With momentum building behind Wahls, time will tell if Schumer can carry his candidate across the finish line,” NRSC spokesperson Samantha Cantrell said in a statement.

Republicans are gleeful at the spate of competitive primaries dividing Democrats in key states. After the Maine primary where progressives came out on top, there are also Schumer-skeptical liberals running in Minnesota and Michigan.

Opposing Schumer may appeal to some Democratic primary voters, but the sentiment doesn’t directly impact his standing as leader. As long as Senate Democrats win the races they need to win in November, the New York Democrat is unlikely to be challenged for his job.

Happening today. Voters in Ohio and Indiana head to the ballot box for primary day.

Republicans will decide their candidate to face Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Derek Merrin is the favorite against state Rep. Josh Williams and former ICE official Madison Sheahan. This is a rightward-shifting district.

Air Force veteran Eric Conroy is favored to take on Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman.

Indiana. There aren’t any steeply competitive primaries in any battleground seats in Indiana. The one to watch is Indiana’s 1st District, where Republicans have an outside chance to knock off Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. Republicans are excited by Barb Regnitz.