HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – A strong storm is expected to impact the entire state of Hawaii Wednesday night through Friday, bringing heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds.
RELATED POST: Alerts issued for flash flooding, damaging winds from approaching storm system
Note this forecast is subject to change. Heavy rain and other impacts can happen at any time over the next several days.
Wednesday night: Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday night ahead of the front. The bulk of the activity will come on Thursday and Friday, however.
Thursday at midnight: Heavy rain will begin to increase after midnight. Scattered thunderstorms will start to develop ahead of the approaching front. These showers will be hit or miss. They will impact some, but not all.
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Thursday morning: During the commute tomorrow, heavy rainfall is expected to develop over the islands. Torrential rainfall will be likely in mauka areas, impacting the morning drive through the Koolau.
Thursday at midday: Thunderstorms will continue to develop throughout the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are still impacting the state at this time.
Thursday evening.: Heavy rainfall is expected across most of the state into the evening as the low-pressure system continues to move north of the state. The associated cold front will start to push towards the southeast during the late afternoon and evening.
Friday morning: There will be more impacts over Maui County and Hawaii Island, and conditions will dry out through Friday evening and Saturday.
Friday afternoon: Heavy rain will be confined to the eastern half of the state. Dry and comfortable air will move in behind the cold front. Nice, sunny weather is expected on Saturday and Sunday.
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As Hawaii endures its worst flooding in more than 20 years, officials urged people in hard-hit areas to “LEAVE NOW”. That warning early on Saturday came after heavy rains fell on soil already saturated by downpours from a winter storm a week ago, and still more was expected over the weekend.
Muddy floodwaters smothered vast stretches of Oahu’s North Shore, a community renowned for its big-wave surfing. Raging waters lifted homes and cars and prompted evacuation orders for 5,500 people north of Honolulu. Authorities cautioned that a 120-year-old dam could fail.
“The remaining access road out of Waialua is at high risk of failure if rainfall continues,” an emergency alert said.
On the island of Maui, authorities upgraded an evacuation advisory to a warning for some parts of Lahaina, which is still reeling from a deadly 2023 wildfire, because of retention basins nearing capacity.
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North Shore Oahu residents who did not evacuate were heartened in the morning by receding waters and moments of blue sky, but more rain was on the way.
“Don’t let your guard down just yet,” said Tina Stall, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu. “There’s still potential for more flooding impacts.”
Damage to homes on Oahu on Saturday. Photograph: J Matt/Zuma/Shutterstock
Racquel Achiu, a Waialua farmer who stayed to care for her livestock, found her goats in knee-high water Thursday night, and an hour later, her family’s seven dogs were in danger of drowning in an elevated kennel. Her nephew and son-in-law rushed out into chest-high water to save them.
“My dogs’ heads were literally just sticking out of the water,” Achiu said. “There was so much water, I cannot even express.”
Governor Josh Green said the cost of the storm could top $1bn, including damage to airports, schools, roads, homes and a Maui hospital in Kula.
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“This is going to have a very serious consequence for us as a state,” Green said at a news conference. He also said his chief of staff spoke to the White House and received assurances of federal support.
Green said the flooding was the state’s most serious since 2004, when homes and a University of Hawaii library were swamped.
Dozens and perhaps hundreds of homes have been damaged, but officials have yet to fully assess the destruction. Some 5,500 people were under evacuation orders.
Officials blamed some of the devastation on the sheer amount of rain that fell in a short amount of time on saturated land. Parts of Oahu received 8 to 12in (20 to 30cm), the National Weather Service said.
Flooding has hit parts of Oahu. Photograph: J Matt/Zuma/Shutterstock
More than 200 people were rescued from the rising waters, authorities said, but no deaths were reported and no one was unaccounted for. Crews searched by air and by water for stranded people.
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Winter storm systems known as “Kona lows”, which feature southerly or south-westerly winds that bring in moisture-laden air, have been responsible for the deluges in the past two weeks. The intensity and frequency of heavy rains in Hawaii have increased amid human-caused global heating, experts say.
Officials have been closely watching the Wahiawa dam, which has been vulnerable for decades, saying it was “at risk of imminent failure”.
Water levels in the dam about 17 miles (28km) north-west of Honolulu, on the island of Oahu, receded by late Friday and then went up again with overnight rain.
However the dam appeared to be less of a concern the following morning than the “breadth of hazardous conditions” across the island, said Molly Pierce, a spokesperson for Oahu’s department of emergency management.
She noted substantial flooding including in residential parts of Honolulu.
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“We’re seeing the waters receding in a lot of places, but again with that saturation, just the smallest amount of water can bring those raging back up,” Pierce said. “So even if it’s blue skies where you are, I think we all know in Hawaii that if rain is falling on the mountain, it’s coming to you soon enough.”
People watch floodwater above the swollen Kaukonahua Stream on Friday in Waialua. Structural integrity of Wahiawa Dam is threatening the communities of Waialua and Haleiwa as persistent heavy rains from the Kona low storm continue to batter the state.
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A powerful Kona low brought intense rainfall to the islands on Friday, triggering evacuations and leaving widespread damage that continued into early Saturday morning.
The most critical situation unfolded on Oahu’s North Shore where torrential rain—up to 8 to 12 inches in some areas—caused life-threatening flooding in communities like Haleiwa and Waialua.
Officials issued a mandatory evacuation order for areas downstream of the Wahiawa Dam after warnings that the structure was at risk of failure. Rising water levels and continued rainfall are keeping authorities on high alert.
Floodwaters have inundated roads, homes and neighborhoods across northern and central Oahu, cutting off access to entire communities. Officials warned that all roads out of Waialua were at risk of failure Friday night, urging anyone remaining to leave before conditions worsened. Across the island, there were landslides and downed trees that made roads impassable.
Hawaiian Electric also reported power outages affecting thousands of customers, particularly on the North Shore. Electricity was shut off as a safety measure during flooding and evacuation efforts. Call HECO’s Trouble Line at 1-855-304-1212 to report any damage to power lines or poles.
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Forecasters caution that more heavy showers could redevelop. The entire state remains under a flood watch through Sunday. Conditions may gradually improve starting Monday as the storm system moves away.
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By JENNIFER SINCO KELLEHER and AUDREY McAVOY (Associated Press)
March 21, 2026 12:15 a.m.
Muddy floodwaters from severe rains inundated streets, pushed homes off their foundations, swallowed vehicles and prompted evacuation orders for thousands of residents in towns north of Honolulu on Friday as officials warned of the possible failure of a 120-year-old dam.
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Streets are flooded from severe rains, Friday, March 20, 2026, in Haleiwa, Hawaii.
Mengshin Lin / AP
Emergency sirens blared along Oahu’s North Shore, where rising waters damaged homes in a community world-renowned for its surfing. Honolulu officials told residents Friday morning to leave the area downstream of Wahiawa dam, saying it was “at risk of imminent failure.”
There were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries, but some homes had been swept away, said Ian Scheuring, a spokesperson for Honolulu. Crew searched by air and by water for people who had been stranded — efforts that were hampered by people flying personal drones to get images of the flooding, he said.
During an afternoon news conference, Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi said dozens — if not hundreds — of homes had been damaged. Officials had not been able to fully assess the destruction due to the floodwaters. Some 5,500 people were under evacuation orders.
“There’s no question that the damage done thus far has been catastrophic,” he said.
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Blangiardi said officials felt confident in the stability of the dams on the island, but that it was hard to predict how much rain would come and what it might do.
The National Guard was airlifting about 70 children and adults who had been attending a spring break youth camp at a retreat on Oahu’s west coast called Our Lady of Kea’au, according to city and camp officials. The camp is on high ground but authorities didn’t want to leave them there, the mayor said.
Kimberly R.Y. Vierra, a spokesperson for St. Francis Healthcare System of Hawai‘i, which runs the camp, said floodwaters had cut off the main access road.
On Maui, officials issued an evacuation advisory for some Lahaina neighborhoods after nearby retention basins neared capacity. The county said crews were redirecting and pumping water to keep levels safe. Parts of those neighborhoods were burned by the massive wildfire that destroyed much of Lahaina in 2023.
Officials have been watching dam levels since a storm last week dumped heavy rain across the state, which led to catastrophic flooding that washed away roads and homes. After the worst of it, a similar but weaker storm was forecast to bring more rain through this weekend.
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“It’s going to be a very touch-and-go day,” Hawaii Gov. Josh Green said in a social media post.
Most of the state was under a flood watch, with northern Oahu under a flash flood warning, according to the National Weather Service, which reported “widespread life-threatening flash flooding,” particularly in Haleiwa and Waialua.
One shelter at Waialua High and Intermediate School was evacuated because of flooding, Scheuring said. There were about 185 people and 50 pets there who needed to be bussed to another evacuation center, but by midday 54 people still remained in the shelter.
Parts of Oahu received 8 to 12 inches (20 to 30 cm) of rain overnight, further saturating the ground after the storm last weekend. Kaala, the island’s highest peak, got nearly 16 inches (40 cm) in the past day, on top of 26.6 inches (67.6 cm) between March 10 and 16, the National Weather Service said.
Winter storm systems known as “Kona lows,” which feature southerly or southwesterly winds that bring in moisture-laden air, were responsible for the deluges. The intensity and frequency of heavy rains in Hawaii of have increased amid human-caused global warming, experts say.
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As she prepared to evacuate to a friend’s home on higher ground, Waialua resident Kathleen Pahinui told The Associated Press in a phone interview that the aging Wahiawa dam is a concern every time it rains.
“Just pray for us,” she said. “We understand there’s more rain coming.”
The state has said the dam has “high hazard potential,” and that a failure “will result in probable loss of human life.”
The earthen dam was built in 1906 to increase sugar production for the Waialua Agricultural Company, which eventually became a subsidiary of Dole Food Company. It was reconstructed following a collapse in 1921.
In the last few years, Dole agreed to transfer ownership of the dam to the state, which wants to make more than $20 million in improvements, but the transfer isn’t complete. The state has been warning Dole since 2009 that the upgrades were needed, the nonprofit news organization Honolulu Civil Beat reported Friday.
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“The dam continues to operate as designed with no indications of damage,” the company said in an emailed statement.
The state regulates 132 dams across Hawaii, most of them built as part of irrigation systems for the sugar cane industry, according to a 2019 infrastructure report by the American Society of Civil Engineers.
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