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Trump Sees the U.S. as a ‘Disaster.’ The Numbers Tell a Different Story.

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Trump Sees the U.S. as a ‘Disaster.’ The Numbers Tell a Different Story.

To hear President-elect Donald J. Trump tell it, he is about to take over a nation ravaged by crisis, a desolate hellscape of crime, chaos and economic hardship. “Our Country is a disaster, a laughing stock all over the World!” he declared on social media last week.

But by many traditional metrics, the America that Mr. Trump will inherit from President Biden when he takes the oath for a second time, two weeks from Monday, is actually in better shape than that bequeathed to any newly elected president since George W. Bush came into office in 2001.

For the first time since that transition 24 years ago, there will be no American troops at war overseas on Inauguration Day. New data reported in the past few days indicate that murders are way down, illegal immigration at the southern border has fallen even below where it was when Mr. Trump left office and roaring stock markets finished their best two years in a quarter-century.

Jobs are up, wages are rising and the economy is growing as fast as it did during Mr. Trump’s presidency. Unemployment is as low as it was just before the Covid-19 pandemic and near its historic best. Domestic energy production is higher than it has ever been.

The manufacturing sector has more jobs than under any president since Mr. Bush. Drug overdose deaths have fallen for the first time in years. Even inflation, the scourge of the Biden presidency, has returned closer to normal, although prices remain higher than they were four years ago.

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“President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it ever gets,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “The U.S. economy is the envy of the rest of the world, as it is the only significant economy that is growing more quickly post-pandemic than prepandemic.”

Those positive trends were not enough to swing a sour electorate behind Vice President Kamala Harris in the November election, reflecting a substantial gap between what statistics say and what ordinary Americans appear to feel about the state of the country. And the United States clearly faces some major challenges that will confront Mr. Trump as he retakes power.

The terrorist attack by an American man who said he had joined ISIS that killed 14 people in New Orleans early on New Year’s Day served as a reminder that the Islamic State, which Mr. Trump likes to boast he defeated during his previous term, remains a threat and an inspiration to radicalized lone wolves. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are daunting challenges even without U.S. troops engaged in combat there.

Thanks in part to Covid relief spending by both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, the national debt has ballooned so much that it now represents a larger share of the economy than it has in generations, other than during the pandemic itself. Families remain pressed by the cost of living, including housing, health care and college tuition. The cost of gasoline, while down from its peak, is still about 70 cents per gallon higher than when Mr. Biden took office.

Moreover, Americans remain as divided as they have been in many years — politically, ideologically, economically, racially and culturally. As healthy as the country may be economically and otherwise, a variety of scholars, surveys and other indicators suggest that America is struggling to come together behind a common view of its national identity, either at home or abroad.

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Indeed, many Americans do not perceive the country to be doing as well as the data suggests, either because they do not see it in their own lives, they do not trust the statistics or they accept the dystopian view promoted by Mr. Trump and amplified by a fragmented, choose-your-own-news media and online ecosphere.

Only 19 percent of Americans were satisfied with the direction of the country in Gallup polling last month. In another Gallup survey in September, 52 percent of Americans said they and their own family were worse off than four years ago, a higher proportion than felt that way in the presidential election years of 1984, 1992, 2004, 2012 or 2020.

It was in Mr. Trump’s political interest, of course, to encourage that sentiment and appeal to it during last year’s campaign. He was hardly the first challenger to emphasize the negative to defeat an incumbent president.

Dwight D. Eisenhower disparaged the state of the country when he first ran in 1952, much to the irritation of President Harry S. Truman, only to have John F. Kennedy do the same to him when running in 1960. Kennedy hammered away at a “missile gap” with the Soviet Union that did not exist, then after winning declared that America was in “its hour of maximum danger,” in contrast to Eisenhower’s view of his security record.

“This is a contrast you oftentimes find,” said Michael Beschloss, a historian who has written nine books on the American presidency. “Candidates who are running against incumbent presidents or sitting governments make it sound much worse than it is.”

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Still, few have been as extreme in their negative descriptions as Mr. Trump, or as resistant to fact-checking. He has suggested falsely that immigration, crime and inflation are out of control, attributed the New Orleans incident to lax border policies even though the attacker was an American born in Texas and as recently as Friday called the country “a total mess!”

Yet Mr. Trump is moving back into the White House with an enviable hand to play, one that other presidents would have dearly loved on their opening day. President Ronald Reagan inherited double-digit inflation and an unemployment rate twice as high as today. President Barack Obama inherited two foreign wars and an epic financial crisis. Mr. Biden inherited a devastating pandemic and the resulting economic turmoil.

“He’s stepping into an improving situation,” William J. Antholis, director of the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, which has studied presidential transitions, said of Mr. Trump.

Mr. Antholis compared the situation to President Bill Clinton’s arrival in 1993, when he took over a growing economy and a new post-Cold War order. While the country had already begun recovering from recession during the 1992 election, many voters did not yet feel it and punished President George H.W. Bush.

“The fundamentals of the economy had turned just before the election, and kept moving in the right direction when Clinton took over,” Mr. Antholis recalled.

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Much as it did for the first Mr. Bush’s team, the disconnect between macro trends and individual perceptions proved enormously frustrating to Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris, who failed to persuade voters during last year’s election that the country was doing better than commonly believed. Rattling off statistics and boasting about the success of “Bidenomics” did not resonate with voters who did not see it the same way.

“Of course, not everyone is enjoying good economic times, as many low-middle income households are struggling financially, and the nation has mounting fiscal challenges,” said Mr. Zandi. “But taking the economy in its totality, it rarely performs better than it is now as President Trump takes office.”

Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman, said the latest reports demonstrated that Mr. Biden’s policies are working and argued that Republicans should not seek to repeal them once they take control of the presidency and both houses of Congress.

“After inheriting an economy in free-fall and skyrocketing violent crime, President Biden is proud to hand his successor the best-performing economy on earth, the lowest violent crime rates in over 50 years, and the lowest border crossings in over four years,” Mr. Bates said.

Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Mr. Trump, responded by citing the election: “Americans delivered an overwhelming Election Day rebuke of the Biden-Harris administration’s abysmal track record: communities being overrun with millions of unvetted migrants who walked over Biden’s open border, lower real wages, and declining trust in increasingly politicized law enforcement agencies that are unable to even publish accurate crime data.”

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Mr. Trump does not have to share a positive view of the situation to benefit from it. When he takes office on Jan. 20, absent the unexpected, he will not face the sort of major immediate action-forcing crisis that, say, Mr. Obama did in needing to rescue the economy from the brink of another Great Depression.

Mr. Trump instead will have more latitude to pursue favored policies like mass deportation of undocumented immigrants or tariffs on foreign imported goods. And if past is prologue, he may eventually begin extolling the state of the economy to claim successes for his policies.

He has already taken credit for recent increases in stock prices even before assuming office. He has a demonstrated skill for self-promotion that eluded Mr. Biden, enabling him to persuade many Americans that the economy during his first term was even better than it actually was.

At the same time, with unemployment, crime, border crossings and even inflation already pretty low, it may be difficult for Mr. Trump to improve on them significantly. Mr. Trump obliquely seemed to acknowledge as much when he noted in a post-election interview with Time magazine that he may not be able to live up to his campaign pledge to lower grocery prices. “It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up,” he said. “You know, it’s very hard.”

On the contrary, Mr. Trump faces the risk that the economy goes in the other direction. Some specialists have warned that a tariff-driven trade war with major economic partners could, for instance, reignite inflation.

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N. Gregory Mankiw, an economics professor at Harvard and chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers under the second Mr. Bush, recalled that even his former boss faced significant challenges when he took office in 2001 as the economy was already heading into a relatively mild recession following the bust of the dot-com boom.

“There are no similar storm clouds on the horizon right now,” Mr. Mankiw said. “That is certainly lucky for Mr. Trump. On the other hand, all presidents must deal with unexpected shocks to the economy. We just don’t know yet what kind of shocks President Trump will have to handle.”

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Denise Powell Wins Democratic Primary in Key Nebraska House Race

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Denise Powell Wins Democratic Primary in Key Nebraska House Race

Denise Powell, a political organizer, won the Democratic primary election in a key Nebraska House district, according to The Associated Press.

She will face Brinker Harding, a Republican city councilman, in the general election, a pivotal contest in a battleground district that comes as Democrats try to recapture control of Congress this fall.

Representative Don Bacon, the Republican incumbent in the district and a frequent critic of President Trump, chose not to run for re-election, setting up a high-profile clash for an open seat in Omaha.

Ms. Powell narrowly triumphed in a competitive Democratic primary that centered on an unusual argument: that electing her chief rival, State Senator John Cavanaugh, could make it easier for Republicans to win the White House in 2028.

The argument stemmed from the way Nebraska allocates its electoral votes in presidential elections. Most states follow a winner-take-all approach, but Nebraska gives just two of its votes to the statewide winner, then gives one to the winner of each of its three congressional districts. In recent elections, the Omaha-area district has typically gone blue in presidential contests and awarded its electoral vote accordingly, even as the two other Nebraska congressional districts typically went to the Republican candidate.

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That could make a difference in a close presidential contest.

State Republicans have tried to repeal the so-called blue dot system — named for the blue, liberal dot Omaha represents in a sea of Republican red — but Democrats in the State Legislature have been able to block that effort.

Mr. Cavanaugh’s opponents argued that if he won the House primary and left the State Senate, it would mean one fewer vote to keep the blue dot. Mr. Cavanaugh argued that the system was safe, and that Democrats were likely to be elected in other State Senate seats to compensate for his departure.

The argument may have been enough to help Ms. Powell to victory. A super PAC with ties to Republicans also spent against Mr. Cavanaugh.

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Trump’s upbeat China message collides with deepening Beijing rivalry

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Trump’s upbeat China message collides with deepening Beijing rivalry

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President Donald Trump opened his high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping by predicting a “fantastic future together” — striking an unusually warm tone as his administration pursues new trade and investment deals with Beijing.

“In fact, the longest relationship of our two countries that any president and president has had,” Trump said at the start of the bilateral meeting Thursday local time. “We’ve had a fantastic relationship. We’ve gotten along.”

“And whenever we had a problem, we worked that out very quickly,” he continued. “We’re going to have a fantastic future together.”

Trump also praised Xi directly, calling him “a great leader” and emphasizing the personal relationship between the two leaders as a foundation for future cooperation.

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President Donald Trump opened his high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping by predicting a “fantastic future together.”  (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

TRUMP HEADS TO BEIJING FOR HIGH-STAKES XI TALKS AS TAIWAN TENSIONS, TRADE DISPUTES TEST US STRENGTH

Xi, in his own opening remarks, emphasized cooperation and shared interests between the two countries.

“As leaders of major countries, this year is the 250th anniversary of American independence,” Xi said, according to a translator. “Congratulations to you and to the American people. I always believe that our two countries have more common interests than differences.” 

“Success in one is an opportunity for the other, and a stable bilateral relationship is good for the world,” he continued.

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XI JINPING WARNS TRUMP US WOULD ‘LOSE FROM CONFRONTATION’ WITH CHINA AS RENEWED TRADE WAR LOOMS

“China and the United States both stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. We should be partners, not rivals. We should help each other succeed and prosper together, and find the right way for major countries to get along well with each other in the new era.”

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026, to discuss the Iran conflict, trade imbalances, the Taiwan situation, and to establish new bilateral boards for economic and AI oversight. (Evan Vucci/Reuters)

Xi added that he looked forward to working with Trump “to set the course for and steer the giant ship of China–U.S. relations so as to make 2026 a historic landmark year that opens up a new chapter in China–U.S. relations.”

The comments came as Trump arrived in Beijing accompanied by a delegation of top American executives, underscoring the administration’s focus on economic dealmaking even as broader tensions between the two countries remain unresolved.

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INSIDE THE ‘DIGITAL LOCKDOWN’ FOR US OFFICIALS AS TRUMP ARRIVES IN CHINA

“I just want to say, on behalf of all of the great delegation that we have … we have the greatest businessmen,” Trump said. “We ask the top 30 in the world. Every single one of them said yes.”

The delegation includes executives from major U.S. firms spanning aerospace, finance, technology and agriculture, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon.

White House officials said ahead of the trip that Americans should expect the president to “deliver more good deals,” with talks expected to include aerospace, agriculture and energy, as well as continued work on a proposed U.S.-China “Board of Trade” and “Board of Investment.”

The emphasis on dealmaking comes after years of friction between Washington and Beijing over trade, technology and military competition. (Kenny Holston/Pool via Reuters)

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A senior administration official said the potential trade framework under discussion could involve “double-digit billion” levels of commerce, along with possible purchase commitments from China in areas such as aircraft and agricultural products.

The emphasis on dealmaking comes after years of friction between Washington and Beijing over trade, technology and military competition.

Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods — a policy he has continued into his second term — while repeatedly accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices.

He also has criticized past U.S. policy that helped integrate China into the global trading system, arguing Beijing benefited from open markets without offering the same access in return.

But in his opening remarks Thursday, the president emphasized business ties and personal rapport, highlighting what appeared to be an effort to stabilize economic relations between the world’s two largest economies.

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The comments came as administration officials said trade discussions with China are ongoing, alongside talks on issues including Iran, artificial intelligence and other security matters.

Trump’s praise of Xi is consistent with his longstanding approach of using personal diplomacy with foreign leaders, including rivals, as a negotiating tactic — though whether that approach will translate into concrete agreements with China remains to be seen.

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Trump marvels at Chinese display of power as summit kicks off

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Trump marvels at Chinese display of power as summit kicks off

An extraordinary display of power and precision along Tiananmen Square greeted President Trump in Beijing on Thursday, kicking off a two-day summit with particularly high stakes for the Americans.

Trump’s meetings with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, began at the Great Hall of the People moments after a welcome ceremony that seemed to impress the president, featuring a Chinese military honor guard and a greeting from excited schoolchildren. American flags waved as “The Star Spangled Banner” rang out on a smoggy day in the heart of the capital.

Children holding Chinese and U.S. flags rehearse before the welcome ceremony for President Trump.

(Maxim Shemetov / Associated Press)

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Trump reflected on the stakes of his visit at the top of the meeting, telling Xi that the ceremony was an honor “like few I’ve seen before.”

“There are those who say it may be the biggest summit ever,” he said. “I have such respect for China, the job you’ve done.”

Both men struck a conciliatory tone, despite the agenda for the summit featuring some of the thorniest issues facing the two superpowers today, including the U.S. war in Iran, trade relations and the future of Taiwan.

“We’ve gotten along — when there have been difficulties, we’ve worked it out,” Trump added. “We’re going to have a fantastic future together.”

Trump is expected to ask Xi for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital commercial waterway disrupted by Iran since the start of the war, and for the extension of a truce in the trade war he started at the beginning of his second term.

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China, in turn, will ask the Trump administration not to proceed with arms sales to Taiwan, despite their approval by Congress, and for a declaration of opposition to Taiwanese independence. Beijing also seeks access to top-end chips made by American manufacturers.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump shake hands at the Great Hall of the People.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump shake hands at the Great Hall of the People.

(Kenny Holston / Associated Press)

The agenda exposes the mutual dependence of the two rival superpowers, marked by distrust but driven by a quest for cooperation and stability.

The welcome ceremony outside the Great Hall kicked off with Xi shaking the hands of Trump’s delegation, including figures such as his political advisor, James Blair, his communications director, Steven Cheung, and his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump.

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They were just a few members of a U.S. delegation accompanying Trump filled with curiosities.

Chinese officials were surprised to learn that Pete Hegseth was joining Trump in Beijing this week, marking the first time a president has brought his secretary of Defense on an official state visit. It wasn’t immediately clear to the Chinese what his inclusion was meant to convey.

Eric Trump, the president’s son, is here, seeking to leverage the family name for lucrative business deals as Beijing aggressively campaigns against government corruption at home. And First Lady Melania Trump decided to stay at home, an unusual snub of such a high-level event.

A contingent of U.S. business leaders was given little notice to prepare for the trip, including the chief executive of Nvidia, who raced to join Trump aboard Air Force One at a refueling stop in Alaska.

The diplomatic faux pas follow weeks of Chinese frustration over what they see as the Trump administration’s lack of preparation — a perceived display of incompetence that boosts their confidence heading into the negotiations.

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Over the course of the visit, Trump is expected to visit the Temple of Heaven, a monument to imperial China and Confucian thought in the center of Beijing. Ahead of Trump’s arrival, an area roughly the size of 400 American football fields was closed in preparation for a stop here.

On Thursday night, local time, Trump will return to the Great Hall of the People for a banquet dinner. Additional meetings are scheduled for Friday morning before Trump departs midday for home.

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