Fewer Black Milwaukeeans voted for the Democratic Party in 2024 than in previous presidential elections. And, if national trends are an indication, President-elect Donald Trump gained support among Black men in Milwaukee, too.

In the wake of the November election, more numbers have detailed the shift:

• The Democratic margin in Wisconsin’s majority-Black wards declined slightly, from 81 points in 2020 to 79 points in 2024, according to an analysis by Marquette Law School fellow John Johnson.
• Support for Democratic candidates among Black voters has steadily declined since Barack Obama was on the presidential ballot, even while accounting for a population decrease and high turnout.
• About 30% of Black men in the U.S. under age 45 voted for Trump, double the percentage he got in 2020, according to the Associated Press, which interviewed over 120,000 voters nationwide. Another poll, from the NAACP, showed more than 20% of Black men under 50 supported Trump.
• Trump’s Black support has increased since he first appeared on the ballot in 2016. He gained about 2% more of the vote in Wisconsin’s majority-Black wards this year compared to 2020 and he gained 3% more of the vote in 2020 compared to 2016, according to Johnson, who noted that the best voter breakdown for race, gender and age won’t be tabulated for several months.

To examine the shift, the Journal Sentinel asked several Black male community leaders in Milwaukee about their perspectives on how Black men voted in the election.

Rob “Biko” Baker is a Milwaukee native who has been part of the teaching faculty at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee since 2018 in the African and African Diaspora Studies department. He said it’s important to reiterate that all the polling shows strong support for the Democratic Party among Black people. That’s more than any other demographic since Trump picked up a significantly larger amount of Latino male voters.

“We have to be a little cautious with exit polling and polling in general because everybody’s sort of seen the downfall of the poll,” he said.

However, Baker said he’s noticed a change in students of color in his classes, where open political discussion is encouraged.

Tory Lowe is a noted community figure who has advocated for Black families in the Milwaukee community for over a decade. He was part of a team from radio station 101.7 The Truth, where he’s an afternoon host, that visited the White House for a Juneteenth celebration earlier this year.

“I had a chance to interview Trump, and I had a chance to endorse Trump, and I never did, because I’m an advocate,” Lowe told the Journal Sentinel. “I don’t want to get involved in all of that; I’m not MAGA. I’m an independent but I voted for Trump and it’s because I don’t agree with nothing on the left.

“I can’t fight a bogeyman that ain’t in my community.”

Lowe pointed to often-cited statistics that Black Milwaukeeans live under some of the worst conditions in the world. He said he reserved his political frustrations with Milwaukee’s local politicians, who overwhelmingly are a part of or support the Democratic Party.

He believes the Democrats made too many mistakes during the COVID-19 pandemic, abandoned the working class, allow for undocumented immigrants to receive benefits ahead of low-income Black people, and are pushing an “LGBT agenda” on Black men and youth.

“Most people believe in man, woman and child,” Lowe said.

The Rev. Greg Lewis is the executive director of Souls to the Polls Wisconsin. He supported Vice President Kamala Harris in the election and believes Black male votes are being siphoned off because the “Democratic Party kind of took the community for granted” and many voters “do not pay attention” and they wanted to be “rebellious.”

“People start to fall in love with folks who do them wrong,” he said. “I don’t even understand it at all. … The Stockholm Syndrome seems to be quite prevalent in Black and brown communities.”

Economy, immigration, stimulus checks affected votes

For most of Black America, there’s a legacy — overcoming slavery, Jim Crow laws and a fight for civil rights, the rise of mass incarceration and education and health care disparities — that drives values today. While it’s important not to view Black people as a monolith, there are certain values that are overwhelmingly supported in the Black community, public polling suggests.

For example, about 97% of Black Americans believe in God or a higher power. A vast majority say they’ve experienced racism in their life and that U.S. institutions were designed to hold Black people back, particularly the justice system and policing. A majority are cynical of the health care system, having experienced disparities. A strong majority support an option to let their child attend a school outside of the local nearby public school.

Some of these values, along with thriving personal finances, could see political movement in Trump’s second term.

“Black people, many of us, are naturally conservative,” Baker said. “But overall, people have always voted with their pocketbooks.”

Black voters cited the economy and jobs as the most important issues the country faced in polling before the election. And there’s a growing difference of opinion among Black men on who’s best equipped to handle male voters’ single biggest issue — their wallet.  

“There’s misogyny and sexism; that’s a real thing,” Baker said. “A lot of men struggle with women as leaders, which is a little bit difficult to sort of wrap our heads around. … But people are also tired of hearing fake promises, and so rather than doubling down on (Democrats), they wanted to give Trump a chance.”

Immigration policy and its effect on the economy was also an issue discussed in his UWM class.

“Many Black men particularly fear that immigrants have come for their working-class jobs,” he said.

Trump, who takes office Jan. 20, has vowed to mass-deport immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally, saying he’ll use the military to complete the task and prevent immigrants from stealing “Black jobs.”

At the same time, the ACLU has vowed to fight the Trump administration through litigation, and there are economists who say mass deportations would hurt the economy, especially Wisconsin’s farming industry.

An estimated 11.7 million immigrants live in the U.S. illegally, according to the Pew Research Center — and there’s been a sharp rise in undocumented immigrants in recent years.

The claim that immigrants are taking jobs from native-born Americans is repeated by Trump and his advisers but has been disputed by economists who say people in the U.S. illegally most often take on jobs that native workers are unwilling to fill, such as in agriculture and food processing.

There’s also a mistaken belief that the immigration population is only of Latino heritage.

“We have immigrants from the (Caribbean) islands, from Africa,” Lewis said. “Immigration has been a problem for Black folks for years. … Black people have been eliminated from migrating to America for a long time, ever since the days of slavery.

“The thought process of folks who vote for a party or a guy who’s going to eliminate their possibility for becoming citizens is certainly, I mean, … that just demolishes any part of rationality that I can see in communities of color. … When he tells you who he is, you ought to believe him.”

In addition to immigration policy, the reality of rare government checks during the COVID-19 pandemic impacted young people. The federal government sent $1,200 per income-tax filer and $500 per child to each American in March 2020 while Trump was president and sent a second round of $600 in December 2020. A third round of $1,400 came in March 2021 during President Joe Biden’s administration.

The stimulus checks and the idea that Trump made them possible, even noting that Trump would sign the checks himself, resonated with some young Black voters.

“I’ve heard people talk about … stimulus checks,” Baker said. “I think that was a real thing.”

While Biden prioritized reducing the coronavirus’ effects on the public — important since the Black community took the brunt of COVID’s blow — he didn’t make the investments into local communities that fostered real change to a young Black person’s bottom line, Baker said.

Some civic engagement groups supporting Black lives that received millions during social justice movements across the U.S. within the last decade have seen many of their resources dry up, according to Baker.

He said he’s spoken to a leader of a local nonprofit that has seen its budget fall from $2.5 million to $250,000 since Biden took office. Usually these organizations rely in part on federal funding, like grants. He said if Democrats feel they’ve made the investments, they need to do a better job of articulating that.

At the same time, young Black people want to create and support Black-owned businesses, and a conservative philosophy of less regulation could benefit those same people, Baker said.

Lewis, though, disagrees that the Democratic Party hasn’t put in the work and made investments in the Black community.

“As a community, we’re not sophisticated enough to understand the economy,” he said. “But, Biden has been good to Black folks, especially with pocketbooks, and especially with providing resources in the community and job opportunities.”

Trump has signed criminal justice reform before

During his first term, Trump signed into law a criminal justice reform bill addressing federal prisons. Now, there’s optimism for more action under a new Trump administration.

Trump, having been convicted of felonies by a New York jury, views himself as a victim of the justice system.

“I was on a call with some people, and they kept calling Trump a convicted felon,” Baker said. “And I was like, yeah, you gotta stop doing that. Like, we live in a city where, like, 50% of all Black men have had some type of engagement with the police.

“When you start talking like this, you sound like you’re not for the reform that you said you were advocating for.”

Wisconsin’s arrest records and prison populations reveal deep racial and socioeconomic disparities, disadvantaging many young people of color. In 2021, one in every 36 Black adults in Wisconsin was in prison — a rate that was the highest in the nation and more than twice as high as the national average. Legal troubles can make it more difficult for young Black men to have upward mobility in their communities.

The majority of Black Americans support their local police department, but mistrust in authorities remains due to centuries of systemic racism.

“I think if Trump is going to be the one that says, ‘Hey, we’re going to finally figure this out,’ I’m with it. And I think that all Black people should be with it,” Baker said.

However, there are concerns with the use of privatized prisons that some in the Republican Party have encouraged.

“Locking up people is big business,” Lewis said. “Why would people desert an opportunity to make huge profits … and what better than Americans locking up Black and brown populations to secure the incomes of the rich? I don’t see that changing in America, since the ’70s.”

A chance for an education outside of the nearby public school

Baker looks at America’s education system and sees a need for reform because he says schools remain filled with partisan politics.

Polling commissioned by The American Federation for Children, a supporter of “school choice,” suggests that a majority of Black Americans support an option for their child to attend a school outside their ZIP code, which aligns with many in the Republican Party. But that same poll also suggests that many of those same voters trust the Democratic Party more on education.

There are concerns about affordability and transportation to schools, which some Republicans have proposed vouchers for. For many Black residents, the nearby public school is the only option.

Trump hasn’t vowed major legislation overhauling the education system but instead advocates for an end to the U.S. Department of Education, which would require congressional approval. Abolishing the department would end federal protections against discrimination in schools based on race, among other concerns.

“Ronald Reagan said the same thing … and it’s just too hard to do,” Baker said.

In any case, education decisions are typically local decisions, Baker said, and it’s not the Republican Party in charge when you see issues at districts like Milwaukee Public Schools.

“A lot of the times, it’s liberals who have … I don’t want to speak too negatively … but have not met the cultural needs of the Black community,” Baker said.

“And so, people can see with their own eyes, and they can judge with their own eyes. A lot of people try to act like Black people have been tricked or duped, but, no, we can see that the institutions aren’t serving us, and so people are looking for hope.”

At the same time, Baker opposes efforts by some Republican officials to ban books in schools, and change curriculum that addresses racial identity and Black history.

“I think that is dangerous,” he said. “And I would hope that the Republicans would have enough sense to not try to water down the history, but give us the true history, instead of giving us the fake news history. Get the real history.”

To help stem frustration, Baker said many of his students have become less loyal to one political party in recent years and he thinks it’s an encouraging sign.

“Black people have to get out of the space where we’re only rocking with one party or one candidate,” he said. “We have to have multiple interests, and we have to work with any of those leaders that are willing to serve our interests.”

Black Milwaukee isn’t on a political island alone

For Baker, Lewis and Lowe, the oppression of Black people is bipartisan.

“Biden really did a lot of trying to mend that issue. He really did,” Lewis said. “But people aren’t paying attention to that and that’s why you get what you got.”

Lewis still can’t seem to come to terms with Trump’s sweeping victory.

“I still don’t think this guy won,” he said. “He’s a racist, a bigot. He don’t care about about anybody but himself and people still went out and voted for him. … Common sense is just not common sense anymore in America.”

Baker sees the result as an indictment of leaders in the Democratic Party for taking authoritative actions in the past, particularly during civil unrest.

“I was arrested during the Ferguson rebellion under the Obama administration,” Baker said. “I saw how a Democratic governor in Missouri was treating people real bad.”

Baker spent a year in Ferguson, Missouri, after the death of Michael Brown, an 18-year-old Black man shot and killed by a police officer, sparking civil unrest. He helped protest and organize a movement but was also chronicling the demonstrations and writing about Ferguson for media like Vanity Fair.

Now, he says the re-election of Trump is an opportunity.

Baker said Trump might not be the solution, but could be a catalyst, that starts bipartisanship and real change. He looks at other parts of the country that have shown a willingness to change parties or vote for both parties. He points to the Latino community and parts of New York City, like some voters in Queens and the Bronx who voted for both Trump and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a progressive Democrat.

“That creates a unique perspective where you have leverage in places where you might not have had,” Baker said. “We have to rally behind candidates that are real, that don’t play lip service, don’t go back and forth on their issues, but are really connected to our interests.

“And I think what you’re seeing is that young people especially are much more sophisticated, even if the sophistication sees them not participating. They don’t want to be pandered to. We need candidates that can be service leaders, can be steward leaders and we need to get behind them.”

Baker said there are many high-quality local leaders in Milwaukee, and he was encouraged that turnout was up in Wisconsin, but the election result needs to be a wakeup call.

Now that the vast majority of Black Milwaukee remained loyal to their elected leaders and the Democratic Party, he said it’s apparent which voting bloc has the most leverage.

“We’ve got some great leaders in Milwaukee. … People do trust their local leaders,” he said. “But, I think it’s time to define our interests and keep pushing for them.”

Drake Bentley can be reached at DBentley1@gannett.com.