Seattle, WA
5 Storylines to Watch in Seahawks’ Week 11 Game vs. 49ers
After a much-needed bye week that included multiple personnel changes and abrupt losses, the Seattle Seahawks are beginning the most crucial stretch of the 2024 season in Week 11.
Their first test will be against the San Francisco 49ers — the second of two matchups this season with their division rivals. Seattle (4-5, 0-2 NFC West) will try to get their first in-division victory when they head to Levi’s Stadium to face the Niners (5-4, 1-2 NFC West).
The Seahawks need to get back on track with all their recent changes, which included waiving linebacker Tyrel Dodson — the team leader in defensive snaps — and losing starting center Connor Williams to retirement midseason. Mike Macdonald’s team is entering a crucial point in its evolution, and the team’s demeanor on Sunday will be telling.
Seattle and San Francisco kick off at 1:05 p.m. on Sunday. Here are five storylines to watch in Seattle’s Week 11 road game versus the Niners.
Even Macdonald appeared somewhat surprised while delivering the news on Friday that Williams decided to retire after the team’s bye week. Williams, who signed with the Seahawks late in training camp after coming off a serious knee injury, hung up his cleats for personal reasons, per Macdonald — not because of a lingering knee issue.
But now an already struggling Seahawks offensive line has two new starters heading into Week 11: second-year center Olu Oluwatimi and right tackle Abraham Lucas. Oluwatimi has just one career start (Week 7 of last season), while Lucas was the team’s full-time starter as a rookie in 2022. He played in just six games last season and worked back from offseason knee surgery for the first 10 weeks of the season.
The changes could benefit what was one of the worst offensive lines in the league halfway through this season. But that big of a shake-up could require a few weeks for the unit to find a groove. Their protection of Geno Smith and run-blocking effectiveness will greatly impact this game.
The offensive line changes are far from the only personnel differences for the Seahawks in this game. Ernest Jones IV will wear the green dot on defense for the first time, and rookie fourth-round pick Tyrice Knight will start at weakside linebacker next to Jones. Both have just two starts for Seattle this season despite the team being nine games into the season.
Both of the Seahawks’ free-agent linebacker additions are gone. Jerome Baker was traded for Jones, and Tyrel Dodson was waived after the bye. The latter is now beginning his tenure with the Miami Dolphins as a backup and special teams contributor. It was an $11 million failed experiment that didn’t even last one season.
The coaching staff and players have heaped praise on Knight and Jones. The expectation is the new tandem will be an improvement on what Seattle has had most of the season. That can only be proven by a good performance against the team’s most bitter rivals.
In Week 6 versus the Niners, the Seahawks posted a season-high 90.3 percent pressure rate getting after Purdy, but they failed to register a single sack. As a result, Purdy completed 18 of 28 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns in Seattle’s 36-24 loss.
The Seahawks’ pass rush has been effective this season, but their pressure-to-sack ratio is by far the unit’s worst metric. Seattle entered their bye week 27th in the league in that area (12.07 percent) and tied for third in total pressures (174) — highlighting the margin between how frequently the team is affecting the quarterback but not creating negative plays.
San Francisco was put in just 12 third-down situations in as many drives in the first matchup between these teams. Taking Purdy to the ground has to be an emphasis to get the Niners behind the sticks.
The Niners piled up 228 rushing yards versus the Seahawks with their second- and third-string running backs in Week 6. Now, the return of All-Pro Christian McCaffrey makes San Francisco’s offense even more difficult to defend.
It’s hard to compare the first matchup to now with all the changes on Seattle’s defense. As defensive coordinator Aden Durde said on Thursday, “This is a different defense than the one we played with when we played them last time.” Still, that creates more variables that will be meshing for the first time. The run defense has to be improved.
San Francisco is fourth in the league in rush yards per game (149.7) and Seattle is seventh-worst in rush yards allowed (139.4). Limiting that attack would be a positive moving into the rest of the season for the Seahawks.
Seattle averaged 25.7 points per game with Metcalf on the field from Weeks 1–7 and then scored a combined 30 points in the two games he was sidelined. Those point totals don’t operate in a vacuum, but there’s no doubt the offense was limited without its top vertical threat.
Even with a bye and missing two of the Seahawks’ games, Metcalf is 17th in the NFL with 568 receiving yards — currently tied with fellow Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has played all nine games. Metcalf’s 16.2 yards per reception also ranks ninth among receivers with at least 20 catches this season.
The Seahawks have shown the offense is more limited when they don’t have Metcalf to stretch the field. Even though Smith-Njigba had a career game in Week 9, Metcalf has been that for Seattle for six seasons now, and he was on pace for a career-best season before his injury.
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I caught this neighbor red-handed cleaning up the beach at Lincoln Park after last night’s … festivities…
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SEATTLE, WA – JULY 4: Dominique Malonga #14 of the Seattle Storm drives to the basket during the game against the Portland Fire on July 4, 2026 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. (David Ryder / NBAE / Getty Images)
SEATTLE – Carla Leite scored 20 points to lead the Portland Fire to a 77-72 victory over the Seattle Storm on Saturday night.
Leite made 4 of 8 shots and all 12 of her free throws, adding four assists for Portland (9-12). Bridget Carleton totaled 14 points and seven rebounds, while Megan Gustafson added 10 points and nine boards.
Dominique Malonga had 22 points to pace Seattle (5-17) and Natisha Hiedeman scored 15. Awa Fam had 12 points, while fellow rookie Flau’jae Johnson was held to a season-low one point.
Leite had two three-point plays to start the third quarter and Frieda Buhner came off the bench to score all nine of her points over a six-minute span as Portland turned a 32-30 halftime lead into a 54-47 advantage. Gustafson sank a 3-pointer for a 41-38 lead and the Fire never trailed again.
Emily Engstler had all nine of her points and six of her eight rebounds by halftime, helping Portland outscore Seattle 22-10 in the second period for a two-point lead at the break.
Hiedeman had nine points in the first quarter and Seattle used a 13-2 run over the final 5:27 to take a 20-10 lead before falling to 0-12 against Western Conference opponents this season.
Portland went 1-3 on a four-game trip.
Up next
Seattle: At Los Angeles Sparks on Monday.
Portland: Hosts Las Vegas Aces on Thursday.
The Source: Information in this story came from The Associated Press.
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An exciting cross-conference WNBA matchup takes center stage on Independence Day as the Portland Fire travel north to the Emerald City to clash with the Seattle Storm at Climate Pledge Arena on Saturday, July 4, 2026, at 6:00 PM PT.
The home-standing Storm look to assert their dominance behind a balanced offensive attack led by dynamic playmaker Dominique Malonga and veteran guard Naty Hiedeman. The visiting Fire will try to play the ultimate holiday spoiler, counting on a heavy scoring punch from Carla Leite to disrupt Seattle’s defensive rhythm. To help you locate the sharpest analytical angles before tip-off, we cross-referenced our advanced game simulations with live, crowd-sourced contract data from Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction platform.
Fire vs. Storm: Matchup Overview
- Teams: Portland Fire vs. Seattle Storm
- Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM PT
- Venue: Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Storm -4.5 (+100), Fire +4.5 (-106)
- Total (Over/Under): 171.5 Points
- Moneyline: Fire +170, Storm -174
The odds and lines featured in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites like Novig and BetMGM at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Polymarket Prediction Market Insights:
Polymarket’s liquid wagering pools offer real-time tracking of public and sharp sentiment, where contract share prices adjust fluidly to represent precise market-implied probabilities:
- Seattle Storm Moneyline (To Win): 63¢ (63% implied probability)
- Portland Fire Moneyline (To Win): 38¢ (38% implied probability)
- Storm Spread (-4.5): 50¢ (50% implied probability)
- Fire Spread (+4.5): 52¢ (52% implied probability)
- Total Points Over 171.5: 51¢ (51% implied probability)
- Total Points Under 171.5: 50¢ (50% implied probability)
(Note: Prediction market participants on Polymarket are trading the game notably closer than standard sportsbooks, pricing Seattle as a more modest 63% moneyline favorite).
Deep Betting Market Analysis & Projections
By routing raw roster efficiency matrices, player matchup data, and home-court advantages through 10,000 algorithmic simulations, our predictive engine has mapped out the highest-probability vectors for Saturday’s showdown:
1. Outright Moneyline: Seattle Storm (73.7% Win Probability)
- The Data: Our machine-learning model gives Seattle a commanding 73.7% probability to win straight up.
- The Angle: This represents a massive value gap on the prediction exchanges. While sportsbooks have priced the Storm heavily at -174, Polymarket traders are valuing Seattle shares at just 63¢. Backing the Storm moneyline contract on Polymarket provides exceptional statistical leverage over standard bookmaker juice.
2. The Point Spread: Storm -4.5 (+100)
- The Data: Simulations indicate a strong 58.0% probability that Seattle covers the -4.5 spread.
- The Angle: Our model projects a final score of Storm 88, Fire 81, indicating a seven-point victory for the hosts. Laying the 4.5 points with Seattle at even money (+100) on Novig represents an analytical edge over public sentiment.
3. Game Total: Under 171.5 Points (+106)
- The Data: The simulation baseline shows a clear 58.6% lean toward the Under.
- The Angle: Our projected combined score sits at 169 points. With Novig offering a plus-money premium of +106 on the Under, fading a high-scoring track meet provides a very comfortable mathematical cushion compared to public expectations.
WNBA Player Props: Projected Box Scores
To evaluate how the individual stars will impact the floor at Climate Pledge Arena, here is the statistical breakdown from our game simulations:
Seattle Storm Projection
- Dominique Malonga: 18 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST
- Naty Hiedeman: 14 PTS, 2 REB, 4 AST
- Awak Kuier Fam: 13 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST
- Flau’jae Johnson: 12 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST
- Jordan Horston: 6 PTS, 3 REB, 2 AST
Portland Fire Projection
- Carla Leite: 15 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST
- Brack Carleton: 10 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST
- Megan Gustafson: 9 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST
- Luisa Geiselsoder: 9 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST
- Emily Engstler: 8 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST
Fire vs. Storm Summary:
The data signals a celebratory night for Seattle fans, as the Storm are structurally positioned to handle their Pacific Northwest rivals. While backing Seattle on the flat moneyline via Polymarket yields the highest pure value, locking in Under 171.5 points (+106) provides an excellent statistical fallback play.
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