World
How the U.S. Election Matters for the Rest of the World
Israel
Israelis, if they could, would vote by a large margin for Trump — the polls show that very clearly. But whoever wins, the long-term impact will probably be limited.
Israeli society, not to mention the government, is more opposed to Palestinian statehood and a two-state solution than it has been in decades. No U.S. president is likely to change that. President Harris would probably put more pressure on Israel to reach a cease-fire and open up talks with the Palestinians. But she would be unlikely to, say, cut off military support to Israel.
President Trump would perhaps be less bothered about Israel allowing Jewish settlers back into Gaza, as part of the Israeli government would like to do. He also talks a much more aggressive line on Iran than Harris, which pleases many Israelis. But you don’t quite know which side of the bed he’s going to wake up on. You get the sense he’s more risk averse than he sounds, and he recently appeared to rule out trying to topple the Iranian regime.
Because of that unpredictability, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may feel he can take more advantage of a Harris administration. So the internal Israeli thinking might be more nuanced than it seems.
Russia and Ukraine
This is an election that matters massively to Russia and Ukraine. Trump has said it is President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine’s fault that Russia invaded. Ukrainians worry that a President Trump would force a quick and dirty peace deal favorable to Russia. They hope a President Harris would continue to support them on the battlefield.
However, in Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin sees much less of a difference between Trump and Harris on Ukraine than we might think. He believes that both Trump and Harris are going to be less committed to Ukraine than Biden.
Putin wants a deal, something that he can call a victory. He believes that Ukraine is a puppet of the United States. So he believes he can only get that deal in a negotiation with the U.S. president. He has publicly backed Harris. That might seem disingenuous, or counterintuitive, but Putin may think he can do business with her.
There is one way in which a Trump victory would unambiguously strengthen Putin: It would mean an America that’s far less engaged in the world and in Europe, which Putin sees as his rightful sphere of interest.
China
Whoever wins, the next U.S. president will be a hawk on China. But the people I speak to in Beijing are divided about which candidate would be better for China. The trade-off centers on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.
Chinese economic officials are very aware that Trump has called for blanket tariffs on China’s exports, which could pose a serious threat to China’s economy. This is a country that is enormously dependent on foreign demand, especially from America, to keep its factories running and its workers employed. Manufacturing creates a lot of wealth, and it offsets China’s very serious housing market crash.
Meanwhile, the Chinese foreign policy world sees advantages to Trump’s winning the election.
China feels increasingly hemmed in by U.S. efforts, particularly by the Biden administration, to strengthen alliances with many of China’s neighbors: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and above all Taiwan. Harris would probably continue those efforts. Trump is much less committed to building and maintaining international alliances.
And Trump has also shown much less interest in defending Taiwan. That is very welcome in Beijing.
Europe and NATO
For Europe, this U.S. election feels like the end of an era, whatever the outcome.
Depending on whom you talk to in Europe, a Trump victory is either a nightmare or a gift. Europe’s growing band of nativists — in Hungary, Italy, Germany and elsewhere — regard Trump as the leader of their movement. If he regains the White House, he would normalize and energize their hard line on immigration and national identity.
Meanwhile, most western European leaders are deeply anxious. Trump’s talk of slapping 20 percent tariffs onto everything sold to America, including European exports, could spell disaster for Europe’s economy. And, of course, Trump has repeatedly talked about leaving NATO.
Even if the United States doesn’t formally leave NATO, Trump could fatally undermine the alliance’s credibility if he says, “I’m not going to go fight for some small European country.”
If Harris wins, there is a feeling that she, too, will be preoccupied at home and more concerned with China, and will expect the Europeans to do more for themselves. There is a palpable sense in Europe that Biden was perhaps the last U.S. president to be personally attached to an alliance forged in the Cold War.
Global trade
Donald Trump says “tariff” is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary. More beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect.”
So this election is, among other things, a referendum on the entire global trade system, with U.S. voters making a choice that could affect the entire world.
Harris, if elected, would maintain targeted tariffs on Chinese goods on national security grounds. Trump is promising something much, much more aggressive, setting tariff levels that haven’t been seen in nearly a century: 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products, and 60 percent or more on goods made in China.
This would hit more than $3 trillion in U.S. imports, and probably cause multiple trade wars, as other countries retaliate with tariffs of their own. Most economists say we could end up with more tariffs, less trade, lower income and growth — a poorer world, essentially.
Can Trump just do that? Yes, he can. He has broad legal authority. And that would mean the United States is undermining the big international trade rules that it helped to create.
South Africa
There are some interesting differences in how people in Africa see Harris and Trump. Despite the fact that Trump has vulgarly dismissed African countries, some see him as a strong leader who gets things done. In many ways he resembles a lot of autocratic African leaders.
Harris, in Africa, is known for spending time in Zambia when she was growing up, as the granddaughter of an Indian diplomat stationed there. And her being of African descent resonates very deeply. She is seen as being very much of the continent.
Biden — and presumably Harris — wants African countries to decarbonize, because many still rely on fossil fuels for energy. Trump would probably not have that focus, and so his presidency might be desirable for countries that want to continue burning coal and oil and gas, instead of being dragged kicking and screaming into the clean energy transition.
South Africa is feeling a push and pull between the West, where it has the strongest economic ties, and the alliance of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, among others). It seems plausible that if Trump wins, he will be much more isolationist, and might have no problem watching countries like South Africa and Ethiopia draw even closer to BRICS.
Mexico
Mexico is facing significant challenges if Trump is elected. There will almost certainly be heightened tensions at the U.S.-Mexico border. Mexico is the biggest U.S. trading partner, and it could face heavy tariffs. And it will be the next-door neighbor of a president who has threatened to use the U.S. military on Mexican soil.
But Mexico anticipates a tough immigration regime whoever wins. Under President Harris, that would probably mean continuity with the Biden administration policies that have become much more restrictive over time. Migration is a shared issue. Migrants from all over the world pass through Mexico to get to the U.S. border, and the United States can’t control the flow of migrants without Mexico’s assistance.
Trump has promised to deport 11 million people, mostly to Latin America — though experts are dubious that such a feat is even feasible. But even a small number of deportations could have huge consequences throughout the region.
Mexico has some leverage. But its leaders could really be backed into a corner by an emboldened Trump. And they know it.
Climate
The stakes could not be higher. The United States has emitted more carbon than any country in history, and is the second-biggest emitter right now after China. What it does next will impact the entire world’s ability to avert catastrophic climate change.
If Harris is elected, she is likely to press ahead with Biden’s policies of shifting to renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions. Less clear is whether she will restrict oil and gas production, as the United States is now producing more oil and gas than any country ever has.
Trump, if he wins, may not scrap the Biden-era policies altogether. But he could overturn dozens of measures that regulate emissions from cars and power plants, eviscerating the country’s ability to reduce emissions fast enough.
Trump’s actions could also leave China without serious competition in renewable energy technology like batteries and electric vehicles. China is already leading that race.
Whoever wins the U.S. election, the energy transition is already in motion. But speed and scale matter. Trump could slow the transition to a crawl, with potentially disastrous consequences for the climate, and the world.
World
Intense Israeli strikes hit Iran and Lebanon as US warns the bombardment will ‘surge dramatically’
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Intense Israeli airstrikes pounded the capitals of Iran and Lebanon early Friday as the U.S. apparently struck an Iranian drone carrier at sea in its unrelenting campaign against the Islamic Republic’s fleet of warships.
Iran launched new retaliatory attacks in the Middle East at the end of a full week of bombardment, which U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned was “about to surge dramatically.”
Israel’s military said Friday morning it had begun “a broad-scale wave of strikes” on Tehran, Iran’s capital. Witnesses described the Israeli airstrikes as particularly intense, shaking homes in the area. Others reported explosions around the Iranian city of Kermanshah in an area that is home to multiple missile bases.
The Israeli military said strikes have already destroyed most of Iran’s air defenses and missile launchers.
The war has escalated to affect countries across the Middle East and beyond. Early Friday, Iran fired missile and drone attacks into Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, all countries that host U.S. forces. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
In Lebanon, where the war has rekindled fighting between Israel and Iran-allied Hezbollah militants, Israel launched a series of airstrikes late Thursday into Friday in the southern suburbs of Beirut and other areas. Motorists jammed roads trying to flee or seek shelter.
The U.S. and Israel have battered Iran with nationwide strikes, targeting their military capabilities, leadership and nuclear program.
In addition to Israel, Iran’s attacks have targeted their Arab neighbors, disrupted oil supplies and snarled global air travel. The war has killed at least 1,230 people in Iran, more than 120 in Lebanon and around a dozen in Israel, according to officials in those countries. Six U.S. troops have been killed.
US says it struck an Iranian drone carrier
The U.S. military said early Friday that it struck an Iranian drone carrier, setting it ablaze.
The U.S. military’s Central Command released black-and-white footage of the burning carrier. The Iranian military did not immediately acknowledge the attack.
The drone carrier, the IRIS Shahid Bagheri, is a converted container ship with a 180-meter-long (yard) runway for drones. The vessel can travel up to 22,000 nautical miles without needing to refuel in ports, reports said at the time of its 2025 inauguration.
Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, described the carrier as “roughly the size of a World War II aircraft carrier.”
“And as we speak, it’s on fire,” Cooper told reporters.
Earlier in the week, an American submarine sank an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka as it was returning from an exercise hosted by the Indian navy that the U.S. also joined. The sinking killed at least 87 sailors.
Under cover of darkness Friday morning, B-2 stealth bombers dropped dozens of 2,000 pound “penetrator” bombs on deeply buried ballistic missile launchers inside Iran, Cooper said.
“We’ve also struck Iran’s equivalent of Space Command, which degrades their ability to threaten Americans,” Cooper said.
Speaking alongside Cooper, Hegseth gave few details when he promised an upcoming surge.
“It’s more fighter squadrons, it’s more capabilities, it’s more defensive capabilities,” Hegseth said. “And it’s more bomber pulses more frequently.”
Iran targets country’s hosting US forces
Qatar’s Defense Ministry reported early Friday it intercepted a drone attack targeting Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts the forward headquarters of the U.S. Central Command.
Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed three ballistic missiles fired early Friday toward Prince Sultan Air Base south of Riyadh, which hosts U.S. forces, said a spokesperson for Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense.
Air raid sirens sounded in Bahrain, where the Interior Ministry said Iranian strikes targeted two hotels and a residential building. It said there were no casualties. In Kuwait, where the six U.S. soldiers were killed Sunday, the Kuwaiti army said its air defenses were activated when missile and drone attacks breached Kuwait’s airspace.
Cooper said Iranian attacks had now hit a dozen countries, who would be welcome to play a more active role in the conflict.
“Those 12 countries are none too happy and I look forward to working with all the partners who are willing to join us,” he said.
Trump again urges Iranians to “take back” their country
In brief remarks at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump again urged the Iranian people to “help take back your country.” This time he promised the U.S. would grant them “immunity” amid the war and ongoing dangers under the current Iranian regime.
“So you’ll be perfectly safe with total immunity,” Trump said, without giving any details about what that meant. “Or you’ll face absolutely guaranteed death.”
Cooper and Hegseth cautioned Iranians not to take to the streets while the conflict is still raging, however.
“It’s common sense, don’t go out and protest while bombs are dropping” Hegseth said.
“The best thing for them to do now is just to lay low,” Cooper added.
In an interview with the news website Axios, Trump said he should be involved in choosing Iran’s new supreme leader to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening strikes of the war. Trump spoke dismissively of Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, being a front-runner to replace his father, calling him “a lightweight.”
“We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran,” Trump said.
Iranian officials meet to discuss new leadership
Iranian state television reported Friday that a leadership council had started discussing how to convene the country’s Assembly of Experts, which will select the new supreme leader.
The leadership council includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi and cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.
The statement provided no timeline on the selection of the supreme leader, nor information on whether the Assembly of Experts would meet in person or remotely for the vote.
Buildings associated with the Assembly of Experts, a 88-member clerical panel, have been attacked during the Israeli-U.S. airstrike campaign.
Israel hits Lebanon with multiple airstrikes around Beirut
Israel carried out at least 11 airstrikes late Thursday and early Friday, targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut. Fires broke out near a gas station.
The Israeli army issued a warning Thursday evening, urging residents to “save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately.” Two hospitals evacuated patients and staff. No casualties were immediately reported.
The Lebanese health ministry said the death toll has risen to 123 since the resurgence of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, which struck Israel in the opening days of the war.
A spokesperson for the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, Tilak Pokharel, said Thursday that peacekeepers had seen and heard clashes, including ground combat, in southern Lebanon as more Israeli forces have moved across the border.
___
Bynum reported from Savannah, Georgia, Rising from Bangkok and Abou AlJoud from Beirut, Lebanon. AP journalists around the world contributed.
___
This version has corrected the date of the ship’s inauguration to 2025, not 2005.
World
Private flights account for 30% of departures from Oman airport as wealthy evacuate Middle East
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Long border crossings, SUV convoys and six-figure jet charters have become the new escape route out of the Middle East as Operation Epic Fury intensifies, with private flights now accounting for nearly a third of all departures from Oman’s main airport.
FlightRadar24, a real-time flight tracking platform, reported that while Oman continues to be a “vital” hub for evacuation and repatriation flights, private flights accounted for 31% of operations Wednesday at Muscat International Airport.
As of Thursday afternoon, the platform reported more than 30% of all movements at the airport were private flights.
Semafor reported earlier this week that airports in Oman and Saudi Arabia were drawing ultra-wealthy travelers looking to leave the countries.
Oman continues to be a “vital” hub for evacuation flights at its Muscat International Airport. (Christopher Pike/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
People familiar with the matter told the outlet that private security companies have been booking fleets of SUVs to take people on the 10-hour drive from Dubai to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where private flights are available.
The clientele evacuating the region are a mix of senior executives at global finance firms and wealthy travelers in the region for business or vacation, according to Semafor.
LIV golfer Jon Rahm, a two-time major winner, was just one of the wealthy who arranged flights amid the turmoil.
MIDDLE EAST CRUISE NIGHTMARE DEEPENS AS IRAN AIRSTRIKES LEAVE PASSENGERS STRANDED
Rahm arranged a charter flight through his partnership with VistaJet, a private aviation company, to fly the seven stranded LIV golfers and a caddie from Oman to Hong Kong after their flights were canceled.
After a more than four-hour drive to Oman, the crew flew to Hong Kong.
A spokesperson for Air Charter Service, a company that acts as a global broker for private jets and freight transport, told FOX Business the company has arranged more than 10 evacuation flights, with more scheduled, mainly out of Oman with passengers looking to flee Dubai.
AMERICAN STUCK IN MIDDLE EAST ESCAPES IN RACE TO REACH CRITICALLY ILL HUSBAND IN CALIFORNIA
FlightRadar24 shared flights flying in and out of Muscat airport. (@Flightradar24 via X)
“We evacuated some of our own staff who were just visiting the region, and we arranged transport via the Hatta crossing into Oman from the UAE to get them to Muscat from where they flew out of the region,” the spokesperson said. “The border crossing time at Hatta took around 3–4 hours, as of Sunday, but I suspect this has increased now, as more people look at this option.”
Light flight jet trips from Muscat, Oman, to Istanbul, Turkey, are reportedly going for more than $93,000, according to Forbes, which said the price was about double the usual rate.
The outlet added the same route on heavy jets can cost up to $140,000.
AMERICANS IN MORE THAN A DOZEN MIDDLE EAST NATIONS URGED TO FLEE
This map shows the targets of Iran’s retaliatory strikes. (Fox News)
The U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran Saturday, triggering retaliatory attacks targeting countries in the region that host U.S. interests.
Mora Namdar, Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs, advised U.S. citizens to leave Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
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The limited number of available aircraft has pushed up prices, as citizens and travelers attempt to flee.
Fox News Digital’s Ryan Morik and Ashley Carnahan contributed to this report.
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