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How Trump Is Using Truth Social to Concoct and Spread Conspiracy Theories

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How Trump Is Using Truth Social to Concoct and Spread Conspiracy Theories

Former President Donald J. Trump’s penchant for amplifying easily debunked conspiracy theories is well known. But an extensive analysis of his posts and reposts on Truth Social reveals a candidate who promotes sinister conspiracy theories at a scale and frequency well beyond his already infamous playbook.

The New York Times’s examination of Mr. Trump’s activity on Truth Social shows that, often multiple times a day, the former president is concocting or promoting dark, paranoid material and pushing it out to his millions of followers. Mr. Trump is so hungry for this content that he appears to be willing to share outlandish information from anyone, including both well-known conspiracists and anonymous accounts that tag him.

The Times analyzed thousands of Mr. Trump’s posts and reposts over a six-month period in 2024 and found that at least 330 of them met two tightly defined and striking criteria: They each described both a false, secretive plot against Mr. Trump or the American people and a specific entity supposedly responsible for it. The unfounded theories ranged from suggestions that the F.B.I. had ordered his assassination to accusations that government officials had orchestrated the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.

About 75 percent of the conspiracy-theory posts came directly from Mr. Trump’s account. The rest Mr. Trump reposted from other social media accounts. The Times also analyzed hundreds more of his posts and reposts that didn’t strictly meet both criteria but still invoked the theories with slogans and subtle references.

In addition to the posts themselves, the analysis zeroed in on the 170 Truth Social accounts that Mr. Trump had amplified on the platform. Some are ones he follows; others have just come across his radar. The vast majority of the accounts regularly promoted conspiracy theories, the analysis showed.

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The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment from The Times.

A spokeswoman for Truth Social did not answer questions from The Times about the company’s policies on conspiratorial content and the accounts that spread it. Instead, the spokeswoman criticized reporters.

Since Mr. Trump inaugurated the platform with its first post in 2022, Truth Social has attracted the kinds of users, and the kinds of posts, that mainstream and more heavily moderated social networks might not have tolerated. Mr. Trump’s use of the platform is near constant; he averaged 30 posts a day in the six-month period The Times analyzed. That frequency far surpasses his posting on any other social media network this year, and shows how much Mr. Trump relies on the platform, and its users, to bolster his conspiratorial worldview.

From July to September, Truth Social received an average of about 4.7 million unique monthly visitors, according to the web analytics firm Similarweb. Those users are, in general, part of a group whose fealty to Mr. Trump sets the network apart from larger ones like Facebook or X, which have monthly user counts orders of magnitude higher. While Truth Social is populated by many everyday fans and supporters of Mr. Trump’s, there are also sensationalist right-wing media upstarts, Covid deniers and devotees of QAnon, a far-right conspiracy theory whose adherents think that satanic pedophiles control the “deep state.”

“He’s building a coalition of people who just see the world in a very dark way,” said Joseph Uscinski, who is a co-author of the book “American Conspiracy Theories” and a professor of political science at the University of Miami. Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, he said, isn’t meant to cater to traditional Republican values, but instead appeals to those “who just want to see the system blown up.”

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The conspiracy theories that Mr. Trump is exposed to on Truth Social have made their way into his campaign speeches and public appearances. He has repeatedly referred, both online and off, to an “enemy from within” that includes Democrats and government officials, and suggested that the military might be needed to handle them. In October, Mr. Trump described the Jan. 6 riot as a day of “love” at a town hall event and two days later shared a Truth Social post that claimed the attack had been staged by the federal government.

Times alt text of image in post: A pair of images of Trump supporters at the U.S. Capitol, with superimposed text reading:

To analyze Mr. Trump’s account, The Times collected all 5,641 of his Truth Social posts and reposts from March 12 to Sept. 12 using computer code. Reporters also manually analyzed hundreds of posts from each profile Mr. Trump amplified to identify whether those accounts had displayed a pattern of propagating conspiratorial content.

Much of the activity on Mr. Trump’s feed consisted of general campaign-related fare, like videos from rallies or endorsements of other political candidates. It also included disinformation and hateful rhetoric about immigrants, his political opponents and other targets.

But over and over — almost twice a day on average — Mr. Trump’s account went one step further and promoted conspiracy theories to his 7.9 million followers.

A grab bag of false conspiracies: George Soros, the Nord Stream pipeline and a ‘rigged’ election

The Times’s analysis identified 10 distinct themes in the conspiracy theories shared by Mr. Trump. Some of the posts depicted below referred to multiple false theories.

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Nearly 400 additional posts not depicted above used language to refer to conspiracy theories but did not spell out the full theory on their own. This included using slogans and phrases that a believer of the theory would understand, but that an average person might not.

The common thread through most of the conspiracy theories is a belief that Mr. Trump is the protagonist of every moment and that his political adversaries are the villains.

Experts said that it was particularly concerning that some of the theories shared on Mr. Trump’s account sought to undermine institutions the public relies on, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency during Hurricane Helene, and the institutions holding the former president to account, like the Justice Department.

Mr. Trump also — with stunning frequency — sowed doubt about American democracy itself.

In more than 260 posts in the six-month period The Times analyzed, Mr. Trump shared conspiracy theories that supported his frequently stated claim that the 2024 presidential election would be fraudulent. That includes saying the criminal cases against him are Biden administration plots to interfere in the election.

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This ridiculous political HOAX, which most thought was already won by me, comes right out of the White House and DOJ, and is being pushed by Kamala Harris and Crooked Joe Biden against their political opponent, ME. Like all of the other Witch Hunt cases, it is being mocked by legal scholars and experts as gross election interference. This shouldn’t be happening in America! MAGA2024

Times alt text of image in post: A stylized image of Donald Trump with his hand over his heart, standing in front of a background featuring the image of a lion. Stylized text is superimposed and reads:

I truly wish people would remember that all of these “trials” are concocted and run by the Crooked Joe Biden White House, and DOJ, for the purpose of Election Interference and damaging Crooked’s Political Opponent, ME, as much as possible. These are not legitimate trials, they are merely part of an illegal POLITICAL WITCH HUNT the likes of which our Country has never seen before! MAGA2024

The Radical Left Democrats are already cheating on the 2024 Presidential Election by bringing, or helping to bring, all of these bogus lawsuits against me, thereby forcing me to sit in courthouses, and spend money that could be used for campaigning, instead of being out in the field knocking Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the History of the United States. Election Interference!

Some posts falsely alleged that Democrats were relying on undocumented immigrants to vote and sway the election. Mr. Trump also shared posts with references to replacement theory, a far-right false claim often promoted by white supremacists that says powerful forces are trying to replace American citizens with immigrants.

If Republicans in the House, and Senate, don’t get absolute assurances on Election Security, THEY SHOULD, IN NO WAY, SHAPE, OR FORM, GO FORWARD WITH A CONTINUING RESOLUTION ON THE BUDGET. THE DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO “STUFF” VOTER REGISTRATIONS WITH ILLEGAL ALIENS. DON’T LET IT HAPPEN – CLOSE IT DOWN!!!

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For 3 years, Crooked Joe Biden has flooded our Country with tens of millions of Illegal Aliens, while insisting he could do nothing to stop it. Do NOT be fooled by any phony Biden Executive Order. Crooked Joe opposes Deportations, and he wants to turn his Illegal Migrants into Voting Citizens. He is giving them Free Welfare, Healthcare, and Housing, and he’s letting them crash our Hospitals, our Education System, and Social Security and Medicare, while our Communities are under siege from Migrant Crime. Joe Biden opposes the Laken Riley Act to deport Illegal Alien Criminals. Crooked Joe Biden’s Illegal Invasion is a crime against the United States of America. Ask Joe how many of these millions of Illegal Aliens, Murderers, and Terrorists his Order will deport – The answer is ZERO. On Day One, I will Deport Crooked Joe’s Illegals, and SHUT THE BORDER DOWN!

It’s unclear whether Mr. Trump or one of his campaign staffers wrote any individual post, but each one had been sent from the former president’s official account.

Max Read, a senior research manager at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue who studies election disinformation, said that after months of Mr. Trump’s false assertions about election integrity, some Truth Social users may accept only a Trump victory.

“Who are you going to go to to trust election results?” Mr. Read said. “It’s not going to be the media. It’s not going to be the professionals doing the elections. If you’re living in that reality and getting that information on Truth Social, you’re going to trust Trump and only Trump.”

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Other conspiracy theories Mr. Trump shared included claims that the Biden administration had blown up the Nord Stream pipeline to start a world war; that George Soros, a billionaire Democratic donor, was devising plots to undermine Mr. Trump (a claim that often has antisemitic undertones because Mr. Soros is Jewish); and that Vice President Kamala Harris had used artificial intelligence to fake the size of her crowds at rallies.

#FJB #TrumpWon2020 #Trump2024Landslide #ArrestBiden #ArrestObama #DeathPenaltyForPedophiles #MilitaryTribunalsForTreason

Times alt text of image in post: A screenshot of a post from Truth Social user @fireduptxlawyer. The text of the post reads:

The posts from Mr. Trump that did not meet the threshold of conspiracy theory on their own, but still referred to conspiratorial viewpoints, touched on some of the most dangerous and persistent false claims. For example, he has called the people in prison for their actions on Jan. 6 “hostages,” implying they had been falsely imprisoned in a plot against him. In one of those posts, Mr. Trump shared a song that combined his voice with a choir made up of people charged for their alleged roles in the attack on the Capitol.

January 6th hostages with President Donald J. Trump…

In more than a dozen instances, Mr. Trump shared posts that included known QAnon slogans and imagery, like the acronym “NCSWIC,” meaning “Nothing can stop what is coming,” and “Q+,” the movement’s nickname for Mr. Trump.

“He’s able to reference a series of claims and characters and so forth now,” said Brendan Nyhan, a professor of government at Dartmouth College who studies misinformation and conspiracy theories. “There’s an incredible conceptual apparatus that has been built up around the various villains that he thinks are persecuting him and his followers.”

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The far-right universe Trump amplifies: real-life confidants and anonymous sycophants

Not everything Mr. Trump posts to Truth Social is a conspiracy theory. But almost every voice he amplifies at least dabbles in them — some even more extreme than what Mr. Trump shares from their accounts.

The Times’s analysis found that in the same six-month period this year, Mr. Trump reposted or quote-posted messages from 170 accounts, about 85 percent of which regularly promote conspiracy theories on their own feeds.

About one-third of those 170 accounts were run by people or organizations that Mr. Trump knows in real life, follows on Truth Social or both. They include some of the most extreme figures in the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, many of whom regularly visit his Mar-a-Lago resort, like the far-right activist Laura Loomer and Michael T. Flynn, his former national security adviser.

Mr. Trump reposted a campaign endorsement from Mr. Flynn that alleged that children “will be enslaved by a corrupt, wasteful government of woke globalists” if he is not elected.

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Most of the other accounts reposted by Mr. Trump were not as well known, including 15 that had fewer than 500 followers. Because Truth Social allows for anonymity in its users’ public profiles, determining the identities of the owners of many of these accounts can be difficult.

U.S. officials have said that foreign nations have injected disinformation into dozens of social media platforms ahead of the 2024 election. It was unclear if any of these accounts were part of that effort.

The three posts below were all reposted by Mr. Trump, who shared material from each of the three accounts more than 20 times in the six months The Times examined:

TIME TO EXPOSE THIS COUP AGAINST AMERICA! BRING DOWN THE ENTIRE SOROS FAMILY AND ALL THESE TREASONOUS TRAITORS THAT HE FUNDS!

Times alt text of image in post: A grid of images that all feature Alex Soros, George Soros's son.
Times alt text of image in post: An image of FBI director Christopher Wray, with superimposed text that reads:
Times alt text of image in post: A stylized portrait of Donald Trump, standing with palms outstretched in front of Earth, with superimposed text reading:

In some cases, Truth Social users tag and reply to the former president over and over, and he intermittently rewards them with a repost. For instance, Mr. Trump reposted the image below after being tagged in a post:

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Let’s get an administration that is American First! #Trump2024 

Times alt text of image in post: A stylized image featuring various members of the Biden-Harris administration, with superimposed text reading:

In April, “Ultra MAGA Truther” tagged Mr. Trump in a post with a litany of conspiracy theories about Mr. Biden, including that “he stole the election” and “sold the influence of his office to China for millions.” Mr. Trump reposted it.

“Ultra MAGA Truther” is one of at least three dozen accounts amplified by Mr. Trump that either included a reference to QAnon in its bio or repeatedly posted messages with slogans and imagery associated with the conspiracy theory.

Mr. Trump also posts screenshots of content from Truth Social or other social media platforms without linking to the original post, or visual content that includes watermarks of social media handles. The Times looked at nearly 300 accounts identified in these kinds of posts, dozens of which also trafficked in conspiracy theories. They include well-known figures such as Elon Musk, whom Mr. Trump has suggested would have a job in his administration if he wins.

Times alt text of image in post: A screenshot of a post by Elon Musk on X. The text of the post reads:
Times alt text of image in post: A screenshot of a post by X user @TheRISEofROD. The text of the post reads,

In one post in August, Mr. Trump shared an image of a post on X that used the phrase “too big to rig,” a conspiratorial shorthand that promotes the baseless idea that the 2024 election will be fair only if Mr. Trump wins in a landslide. The Times found that the account behind the image had posted antisemitic content on X, including a post that said “Adolf Hitler was right.”

As Americans vote, Trump ramps up threats and undermines election

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Truth Social hails itself as a “free speech haven” and publicly says it doesn’t moderate content unless it is illegal or otherwise prohibited by its terms of service. In addition to the conspiracy theories, The Times found multiple posts from social media accounts Mr. Trump amplified that included crude sexual comments about Ms. Harris, racist disinformation about immigrants and manipulated images and videos used to attack his opponents.

Mr. Trump’s use of the platform continues to be constant: He posted more than 240 times last week.

On Friday, Mr. Trump took to Truth Social to repeat his false claims that the 2020 election had been stolen and that he would seek retribution on anyone who had been involved once elected. He said those people, including lawyers, donors, election officials and “illegal voters,” would be “sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.”

CEASE & DESIST: I, together with many Attorneys and Legal Scholars, am watching the Sanctity of the 2024 Presidential Election very closely because I know, better than most, the rampant Cheating and Skullduggery that has taken place by the Democrats in the 2020 Presidential Election. It was a Disgrace to our Nation! Therefore, the 2024 Election, where Votes have just started being cast, will be under the closest professional scrutiny and, WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again. We cannot let our Country further devolve into a Third World Nation, AND WE WON’T! Please beware that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials. Those involved in unscrupulous behavior will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.

The post quickly gathered thousands of replies from other users who shared additional conspiracy theories and cheered on Mr. Trump’s call for retribution.

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Though most of these accounts are not household names, at least eight — including one that called former President Barack Obama “a sleeper cell terrorist” in a reply — may have looked familiar to Mr. Trump. He has reposted their content before.

Methodology

The New York Times collected 5,641 posts Mr. Trump made on Truth Social from March 12 to Sept. 12 using Truthbrush, a tool built by researchers at the Stanford Internet Observatory, to scrape the text, media and metadata of Truth Social posts. The data didn’t include any posts he may have deleted before Sept. 13.

Times reporters then analyzed each post to determine if it contained the hallmarks of a conspiracy theory. For a post to meet the standard, it had to mention a secret and ultimately false plot against Mr. Trump, his allies or the American public and point out the people or entities supposedly behind it. An additional 388 posts that included only one of these elements or only subtly referred to the conspiracy theories, such as by using slogans known by their believers, were labeled as “conspiracy theory adjacent” and were not included in the eventual tally of at least 330 posts.

These posts were then categorized into one or more of 10 common topics that were referred to in the conspiracy theories.

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To understand whom Mr. Trump was interacting with, The Times also looked at the 170 accounts that Mr. Trump reposted or quote-posted in the time period. Each account was categorized into multiple buckets, including whether it had displayed a pattern of promoting conspiracy theories; whether its bio included references to QAnon or the account repeatedly shared QAnon content; whether it was followed by Mr. Trump or run by someone Mr. Trump knew in real life; and whether the account posted crude attacks of a sexual nature.

Mr. Trump also frequently shared videos and images containing watermarks by other users and screenshots of content from Truth Social and other platforms. To capture these accounts, The Times used an open-source machine learning model called Qwen-2 to extract the social media usernames visible in the images or in the first frame of videos from the 3,400 pieces of media in Mr. Trump’s posts and reposts. Times reporters then manually matched the extracted handles to the associated account on the correct platform.

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Cops could be forced into race-based guessing game after Supreme Court move, Thomas joins dissent

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Cops could be forced into race-based guessing game after Supreme Court move, Thomas joins dissent

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Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas on Monday dissented from the Supreme Court’s refusal to take up a case that they said forces police officers to create a separate set of rules for racial minorities.

“It is dangerous to allow an individual to be treated differently based on statistics, studies, or expert testimony that purports to show that members of the racial or ethnic group to which he belongs are more likely to act in a certain way than are members of other groups,” Alito wrote on behalf of himself and Thomas. “Here, the special treatment helped the individual; in other situations it will not.”

The case, U.S. v. Donte J. Carter, involved a Black man whose firearm and theft convictions were vacated after the D.C. Court of Appeals held that police seized him before they had reasonable suspicion. Officers later recovered a .40-caliber pistol from Carter’s pants and the government said the gun had been stolen from an FBI agent’s vehicle.

According to the D.C. court, “black Americans like [Carter] are ‘especially distrustful of law enforcement’” and therefore “‘less likely’ than other people ‘to terminate a police encounter’ due to skepticism that any attempt to exercise their constitutional rights will be respected.” 

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SUPREME COURT REJECTS BOSTON PARENTS’ APPEAL CLAIMING RACIAL BIAS IN AN ADMISSIONS POLICY

Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito are pictured together. (Getty Images)

The D.C. court reasoned that Carter’s race was relevant to whether a reasonable person in his position would have felt free to end the police encounter. It ruled that the encounter effectively became a seizure, and that such an action was unlawful because police officers hadn’t established reasonable suspicion before subjecting him to it.

Alito and Thomas argued that the D.C. ruling effectively forces law enforcement to treat people differently based on their race, something precedent established by the Supreme Court prohibits.

“Under the test, officers will need to quickly assess a person’s race, and if officers and courts must craft special rules for black persons, what about dark-skinned Latinos, other Latinos, and members of other minority groups?” Alito continued. “We have said that our ’Constitution is color-blind.’ It ‘almost never’ allows government actors to treat persons differently based on their race.”

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SUPREME COURT RULES ON KEY VOTING RIGHTS ACT RULE AS REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS WAGE REDISTRICTING WAR

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas appears before swearing in Pam Bondi as U.S. Attorney General in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 5, 2025. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

To support his claims, Alito cited Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard and Louisiana v. Callais and Shaw v. Reno. 

“And we have rejected the proposition that the Constitution permits an individual to be treated differently based on a ‘perception that members of the same racial group — regardless of their age, education, economic status, or the community in which they live — think alike,’” Alito wrote, citing Shaw v. Reno.

This appears to be a direct challenge to the D.C. Court of Appeals, which lawyers representing the United States argued forced police officers to assume that all black people have the same attitudes toward police officers and would therefore feel uncomfortable exercising constitutional rights in their presence.

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TRUMP’S FIRING POWER FACES TWIN SUPREME COURT TESTS, BUT ONE AGENCY MAY GET SPECIAL TREATMENT

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito are seen inside the Supreme Court building in Washington, D.C., in December 2023. (Jacquelyn Martin-Pool/Getty Images)

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Carter, the individual Alito noted was helped by the case, initially lied to officers by answering in the negative when approached and asked if he was carrying a weapon.

The police then asked Carter to pull his pants up, at which point they noticed an L-shaped bulge which was later identified as a .40-caliber pistol that had been stolen from a federal agent’s vehicle.

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Supreme Court says ex-LAPD officer may be sued for excessive force in street shooting

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Supreme Court says ex-LAPD officer may be sued for excessive force in street shooting

The Supreme Court refused Monday to block an excessive force lawsuit against a former Los Angeles Police Department officer who shot and killed a knife-wielding man whose speeding truck had slammed into several cars near downtown Los Angeles.

The court turned down an appeal petition from the Los Angeles city attorney’s office, over the objections of Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr.

Litigation over the six-second shooting incident has extended over six years.

Federal judges in California agreed that Officer Toni McBride had reason to fire four shots at the suspect in April 2020 but not the two final shots that killed him.

Daniel Hernandez was alleged to be under the influence of methamphetamine when he got out of his truck and walked toward the officer. She repeatedly ordered him, “Drop the knife,” as he approached.

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But the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, by a 6-5 vote, ruled last year that a jury could decide the officer went too far when she fired two final shots after the suspect had fallen to the ground.

The majority reasoned that in the one-second pause between shots four and five, McBride “could have and should first reassessed the situation” and possibly concluded the suspect no longer posed a danger.

That ruling would have sent the case to a trial.

But the Los Angeles city’s attorney’s office appealed to the Supreme Court in October and urged the justices to review and reverse the 9th Circuit’s decision.

The city’s attorneys said the appeals court failed to consider the “totality of circumstances from the perspective of a reasonable officer on the scene” and its decision refused “to allow for reasonable mistakes in fast-moving, life-threatening encounters.”

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UC Berkeley law dean Erwin Chemerinsky filed a response for the Hernandez family. He urged the court to stand aside and let a jury decide whether the officer’s actions were reasonable.

“The 9th Circuit simply held that it should be for the jury to resolve the factual dispute over what happened,” he said.

The justices had considered the appeal since late February before finally turning it down without comment on Monday.

The Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled police officers may be sued for unreasonable searches and seizures only if they are shown to have knowingly violated clearly established law.

However, this doctrine of “qualified immunity” has divided judges over whether a particular rule or limit has been clearly established.

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The 9th Circuit majority said shooting a fallen suspect crosses the line.

“It has been clearly established for more than a decade that when an officer shoots and wounds a suspect, and he falls to the ground, the officer cannot continue to shoot him, absent some indication that he presents a continuing threat,” wrote Judge Jacqueline H. Nguyen.

“A fallen and injured suspect armed only with a bladed instrument does not present a continuing threat merely because he makes nonthreatening movements on the ground. … Under such circumstances, a jury could reasonably find that she employed constitutionally excessive force. If so, she is not entitled to qualified immunity,” she said.

The five dissenters said the officer made a reasonable split-second decision.

Judge Ryan Nelson said McBride “was justified in shooting Daniel Hernandez to alleviate the risk that he posed when he advanced toward her while armed and ignoring commands to stop. … She cannot be reasonably expected or required to reassess her shooting in a tight six second period during an intense and dangerous situation throughout which Hernandez was rising and never stopped moving.”

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Judge Patrick Bumatay echoed this concern.

“Judges review police shootings only in hindsight. We review police tapes years after the fact. We get to rewind, pause, fast forward — analyzing the situation frame-by-frame. While the advent of police bodycam videos has been a welcome change, we can’t ignore that real life isn’t in slow motion,” he said.

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College sports sees pivotal moment as Senate looks to move legislation on NIL, transfers across goal line

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College sports sees pivotal moment as Senate looks to move legislation on NIL, transfers across goal line

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Congress could determine the future of college sports.

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Thursday was a seminal day as to whether Congress can either salvage – or potentially ruin – intercollegiate athletics. It’s a congressional Hail Mary as senators address name, image and likeness (NIL) deals for athletes, compensation packages and transfers between schools.  

“College sports is in crisis,” declared Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

“There’s a sense of urgency in that room you can feel it, right? You’ve got to do something rapidly,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo.

TED CRUZ, MARIA CANTWELL UNVEIL BIPARTISAN COLLEGE ATHLETICS BILL AMID NIL CHAOS, LAWSUITS, ‘LANE KIFFIN RULE’

Senate lawmakers advanced a bipartisan college sports bill that would create national NIL standards and limit athlete transfers. The measure now heads toward a full Senate debate. (Kevin Carter/Getty Images)

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The Commerce Committee approved a bipartisan gameplan to fundamentally alter college sports. The full Senate plans to debate the bill in July. 

“We have put something on the table that’s going to bring more certainty and predictability to the system,” said Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., the top Democrat on the panel. 

Establishing a nationwide payout framework is a key aspect of the deal. Lawmakers know that inaction could mean that monied, major programs will simply outbid smaller schools. Perhaps even for a future NFL MVP.

“I’m worried that we’ll never see a Josh Allen again at the University of Wyoming,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., referring to the Buffalo Bills standout quarterback. “It leaves those of us who don’t really have a donor base [to struggle to] pay for players of that caliber.”

The bill also restricts athletes to one transfer between schools during a five-year period without a penalty. 

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“Now we have this unbelievable number of players that get in the (transfer) portal every year and we have nothing to control the agents,” said former Alabama head football coach Nick Saban to a Senate panel earlier this month.

UCLA QUARTERBACK ATTEMPTS TO EXPLOIT LOOPHOLE IN TRANSFER PORTAL WINDOW WITH UNIQUE TACTIC

 Lawmakers believe this plan will curb the constant roster chaos. 

Advocates of the legislation believe it protects student-athletes.

“It definitely makes sure that predatory contracting done by agents or universities or conferences or shill organizations, don’t get students stuck in binding arbitration,” said Cantwell.

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Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., is the only former Division I college athlete in the Senate. He played tight end for Stanford’s football team. Booker opposes the bill.

SENS MARSHA BLACKBURN, MARIA CANTWELL HUSTLING TO PROTECT COLLEGE ATHLETES’ FINANCES IN MURKY NIL WORLD

Congress is weighing major changes to college athletics, including athlete compensation, transfers and NIL regulations amid growing concerns about competitive imbalance. (David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

“I’ve seen decade after decade, how the NCAA has screwed athletes. And so we need to make sure there’s firm athletic protections and not trust the NCAA to do it,” said Booker. 

Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., is the only former Division I football head coach in the Senate. He led programs at Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and Cincinnati. He joins Booker in condemning the legislation.

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“They’re trying to turn college sports into the same situation we got in with Obamacare,” said Tuberville on Fox News Radio. “We can’t get the federal government involved in college sports.”

During a floor speech, Tuberville argued that “Congress should not decide how much money student athletes can earn.”

Yet Tuberville conceded that “college sports is facing a five-alarm fire. It’s getting ready to be over with as we know it.”

That’s why Cruz believes Congress should intervene.

“If the alternative is do nothing and allow chaos to continue in college sports to be destroyed, I think that alternative is unacceptable,” said Cruz.

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Congress struggles to do lots of things right. That’s why some observers doubt that Congress is a good substitute for the NCAA.

Matt Mackowiak is a former GOP Senate aide who’s written about Brendan Sorsby, his gambling scandal and the saga involving Texas Tech megabooster Cody Campbell. Big money lured Sorsby to the school for a hot minute. Mackowiak says the Cruz/Cantwell bill fails to prevent another Sorsby situation. But Mackowiak’s biggest concern is congressional willingness to undercut the NCAA.

“I don’t know why you need to create some new system and make it overly complicated. You have a governing body. They haven’t had a lot of teeth in their enforcement in recent years.”

Some of that is because super conferences like the Big Ten and SEC wield more power than the NCAA. Notably, neither of those conferences endorsed the Senate bill. But it was the NCAA which demanded congressional intervention. The NCAA has told lawmakers it can’t address NIL on its own and pushed for a national standard set by Capitol Hill.

But Booker isn’t enamored with the NCAA.

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“The NCAA, which can’t be trusted, has shown decade after decade, (of) failing college athletes,” he said.

There’s concern the bill could undercut current sports broadcasters by diversifying the number of streamers and outlets carrying games. That could complicate viewing. Additional options aren’t necessarily good for fans if they struggle to find their games.

“Then the fans get hurt because all the content is behind a paywall,” said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn. 

“I suspect everyone in this room has heard about frustrations from their constituents in trying to watch their favorite professional sports teams play. They are met with blackouts and paywalls,” said Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.

The House of Representatives stumbled in two previous efforts to regulate college sports. The House Republican leadership had to yank completely different college sports regulation bills off the floor in December and this spring because they lacked the votes. So, now it’s the Senate’s turn to try.

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There are lots of questions about whether the Senate, like the House, can command the votes for this bill. Moreover, what bandwidth does the Senate even have for serious legislating in July? The Senate is trying to figure out what’s next about the nomination of Jay Clayton to serve as director of national intelligence. The future of FISA Section 702 – the nation’s top program to fight terrorism – is up in the air after authorization expired a few weeks ago. And some Republicans are optimistic the Senate can advance a third “reconciliation package” to pay for the war in Iran, cut taxes and reduce fraud.

It would seem that those priorities might outweigh something on college sports.

REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK: HOUSE DEMS QUESTION SPORTS BILL TIMING AMID LANE KIFFIN CONTROVERSY

A Senate panel approved legislation supporters say would bring stability to college sports as critics warn it expands federal involvement. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

But as Cruz and Tuberville both say, the situation in college sports is dire. There’s worry that the SEC and/or Big Ten might form a mega conference. Or develop their own broadcast platforms for games. And there may be a lot more Brendan Sorsbys as gaming becomes more ubiquitous. 

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None of this is going to get any better.

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The future of college sports is on the line. 

So, to fix it, the Senate might just give it the old college try.

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