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Ohio State vs. Nebraska football prediction: What the analytics say

Published

1 year ago

October 23, 2024

Ohio State vs. Nebraska football prediction: What the analytics say

Coming off an open week and following its first loss of the season, No. 4 Ohio State returns home against conference rival Nebraska on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that picks matchups.

Ohio State is 1 point away from being undefeated after a loss at Oregon two weeks ago and needs to not get caught looking ahead to another critical road test coming up at Penn State next week.

Nebraska is in danger of falling under .500 in Big Ten play after getting trounced by new contender Indiana last week, playing some solid defense up to that point, still allowing under 18 points per game, but averaging only 25 on the other side, ranking 90th nationally.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the simulations are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers.

Ohio State is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes come out ahead in 19,300 of the index’s simulations, while the Cornhuskers edge out OSU in the other 700 predictions.

When it comes to projecting a margin of victory, the index predicts a sizable win for the Buckeyes on the scoreboard, too.

Ohio State is projected to be 29.7 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against the Cornhuskers, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -6000 and for Nebraska at +1800 to win outright.

Thus far, most bettors are giving the edge to the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ohio State is getting 61 percent of bets to beat the Huskers and cover the big spread in the process.

The other 39 percent of wagers project the Cornhuskers will either win the game in an upset, or more likely, will lose the game by 25 points or fewer.

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 78 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 10.7 games this season.

Nebraska is eighth in the conference with a 0.1 percent shot at the new 12-team playoff.

And the Cornhuskers are projected to win 6.5 games this season by the index’s calculations.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

Oregon (59)
Georgia (2)
Penn State
Ohio State
Texas
Miami
Tennessee
LSU
Clemson
Iowa State
BYU
Notre Dame
Indiana
Texas A&M
Alabama
Kansas State
Boise State
Ole Miss
Pittsburgh
Illinois
Missouri
SMU
Army
Navy
Vanderbilt

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Enrollments open for Mid-Ohio School's driving and motorcycle-riding programs

Published

11 hours ago

February 2, 2026

Press Room

Enrollments open for Mid-Ohio School's driving and motorcycle-riding programs

LEXINGTON – Enrollments for course dates opened on Feb. 2 for The Mid-Ohio School’s 34th season which gets underway next month. The full 2026 schedule is available at midohioschool.com, and customers can register online or by calling 419-884-4000. The Mid-Ohio School offers professional driving and riding instruction to drivers and motorcyclists of wide-ranging skill. Courses are customized for inexperienced teenage […]

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Will Ohio State football cancel future games vs. Alabama, Georgia? Here’s what AD Ross Bjork said

Published

23 hours ago

February 2, 2026

Press Room

Will Ohio State football cancel future games vs. Alabama, Georgia? Here’s what AD Ross Bjork said

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Future Ohio State football schedules are stacked with enticing nonconference matchups.

In September, OSU will play the return game of a home-and-home with Texas. The Buckeyes will then open a two-game series with Alabama in 2027 before doing the same with Georgia in 2030.

However, the premier matchups beyond this year carry with them a pressing question: will the games be cancelled?

Ohio State athletics director Ross Bjork, during an appearance on Buckeye Talk, expressed little concern about the Buckeyes going forward with those matchups as scheduled.

“I have not heard from my colleagues at those schools that they’re interested in not playing those games, even though they’re going to nine (SEC) games,” Bjork said. “I think they view those high-power matchups – if anything, right now you play them and you win, and then you’re in a great spot.”

Nonconference games are an ongoing talking point in the sport, particularly after two seasons of the 12-team College Football Playoff. Texas was at the center of debates last year.

The Longhorns went 9-3, missing out on the CFP. However, one of those losses came in their season opener at Ohio State.

Had UT gone 10-2 and played a low-level nonconference opponent instead of OSU, the Longhorns likely would’ve gotten into the playoff field. However, that argument is tainted by Texas’ defeat at Florida – a bad loss that could’ve been prevented and gotten UT into the field at 10-2.

“The most important thing is try to win all your games,” Bjork said. “Put yourself in the best position to win all of your games. If you’re in a high-impact league like the Big Ten, you’re going to be in a great spot – 12-0, 11-1 and even 10-2.”

The future structure of the CFP could help determine whether teams preserve big-time nonconference games.

Various expansion formats have been shared, highlighted by 16- and 24-team fields actively being discussed. With a bigger field comes an increased margin for error, allowing teams to get into the field with more losses, particularly if conferences have more automatic bids.

The field will remain at 12 teams for the 2026 season, with the Big Ten and SEC at an impasse. The former favors a 24-team field while the latter prefers 16. One option on the table is a few years of a 16-team field before an expansion to 24.

Bjork said ADs in the Big Ten meet regularly, speaking often with commissioner Tony Petitti. At the core of expansion talk, Bjork sees opportunity for more content.

While some believe an expanded CFP would diminish regular season games, Bjork thinks it would accomplish the opposite.

“You actually keep the regular season way more active for way more teams where everyone’s alive,” Bjork said.

Conference championship games would likely hang in the balance with an expanded field, but that could be offset by play-in games, opening the door for more revenue streams in an era where schools are paying athletes directly.

Other facets, such as the college football calendar, would factor into expansion talks. But it’s evident change is imminent, which could bode well for premier nonconference games while also providing more postseason contests.

“The conversation is going to continue,” Bjork said. “It’s not just going to die and we’re at 12 for forever. There’s going to be continued conversation, and I hope that Ohio State has a voice in that, the Big Ten has a voice in that.”

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Suspect Arrested in Ohio: Missing teen Hailey Buzbee believed to be deceased

Published

1 day ago

February 1, 2026

Press Room

Suspect Arrested in Ohio: Missing teen Hailey Buzbee believed to be deceased

FISHERS, Indiana — The search for a missing Indiana teenager has taken a tragic turn, with investigators announcing Sunday that a suspect connected to the case is currently in custody in Ohio.

During a press conference Sunday, the Fishers Police Department announced they believe 17-year-old Hailey Buzbee is deceased.

Suspect Arrested in Ohio: Missing teen Hailey Buzbee believed to be deceased

According to police reports, a 39-year-old male suspect named Tyler Thomas has been detained in Ohio in connection with the investigation.

Key Details

Last Seen: Buzbee was last seen on January 5 in Hamilton County, Indiana.
Disappearance: Investigators previously stated she likely left her home late on the night of January 5 or the early morning of January 6.
Initial Status: Early reports indicated police believed she left willingly with a plan, originally categorizing her as a runaway.

Detectives tracked a vehicle seen in Buzbee’s neighborhood to Thomas, who allegedly admitted to picking her up. The investigation, which spans multiple jurisdictions and includes the FBI, suggests Hailey was with Thomas at a residence in Columbus and a short-term rental in Hocking County. While authorities believe Hailey died just days after her disappearance, a massive search involving drones and K9 units in Hocking County has so far failed to locate her body.

Summary of Charges

The defendant faces the following felony charges under the Ohio Revised Code (O.R.C.):

Pandering Obscenity Involving a Minor (Creation of Material): A second-degree felony. The complaint alleges the defendant recorded or created material showing a minor engaging in sexual acts at a location on Hunter Ave.
Tampering with Evidence: A third-degree felony. The complaint alleges the defendant altered or removed video evidence from a “deleted file” in the form of cache photos to impair an official investigation.
Pandering Obscenity Involving a Minor (Possession)

Thomas was booked into the Franklin County Jail on January 31 and currently faces charges of pandering obscenity and tampering with evidence, though murder charges have not yet been filed. Police said the two met initially through online gaming.

Thomas is scheduled to appear in court on Monday, with his attorney,

Allegations

The Incident: Police say the defendant “picked up” Buzbee from out of state. A video was created of the minor performing sexual acts, according to court documents.
The Evidence: Police discovered “cache photos” on the defendant’s cellular phone that depicted the minor. These photos served as evidence of the original video, according to the documents.
The Investigation: The actions occurred while an official missing person investigation for the juvenile was either in progress or about to be instituted.

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This story was originally reported by WRTV in Indianapolis.

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