Sports
Our experts’ midseason College Football Playoff, national championship and Heisman picks
How much has the outlook for the college football season changed since the preseason?
It may not feel like a lot, but The Athletic’s consensus midseason national championship pick received zero votes two months ago in the preseason, and the Heisman Trophy favorite is now a running back from a Group of 5 team.
In August, we surveyed 28 of The Athletic’s college football writers and editors for their preseason national title, Playoff and Heisman predictions. After seven eventful weeks of the regular season, we surveyed 30 writers and editors for updated thoughts on how the 2024 college football season will play out. Here are the results — and how opinions have changed.
Who will win the national championship?
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
50.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
36.7% |
57.1% |
|
|
6.7% |
10.7% |
|
|
3.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.3% |
28.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
Fifteen of our 30 voters predict that Texas, the top-ranked team in the AP poll, will win its first national championship since 2005 — a big change after the Longhorns received zero votes in the preseason. Ohio State, our preseason favorite with more than half of the votes in August, still comes in second with 11 votes despite its loss last week to Oregon, which received just two votes after getting three in the preseason. Clearly, most of our staff believes the Buckeyes are capable of getting revenge in the Big Ten title game and beyond.
Clemson and Georgia rounded out our national championship picks with one vote apiece. We asked one voter for each team to explain their choice:
Why Texas?
The Longhorns have been the most complete team in the country this season, ranking 11th in yards per play on offense and first in yards per play allowed on defense. They dominated Michigan on the road, they dominated rival Oklahoma in Dallas, and they have a chance to earn a statement win back home vs. Georgia this week. They also have depth, with the offense not skipping a beat when Arch Manning had to replace starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for two weeks, and it doesn’t even feel like they’ve hit their ceiling yet. — Matt Brown
GO DEEPER
No. 1 Texas hasn’t peaked yet. What happens when it does?
Why Ohio State?
The Buckeyes were my preseason pick, and it’s hard to move off that after they played what was essentially a draw with another top-five team on the road. I would like to see more from Ohio State’s supposedly vaunted defense, but facing Oregon could be a pivot point where defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and the Buckeyes get a better idea of how they need to play against elite competition. The loss of left tackle Josh Simmons is worrisome. Maybe I’ll feel different if Texas womps Georgia on Saturday. I still think Ryan Day and Ohio State complete the mission. — Ralph Russo
Why Oregon?
We were all curious about how Oregon would handle the moment in a marquee matchup against Ohio State, and boy did the Ducks live up to the hype. Dan Lanning’s team got its signature win and officially has everyone’s attention as a frontrunner to pull this off. Yes, it’s hard to pick against Texas, given how the Longhorns have played thus far. But Dillon Gabriel has the experience Oregon needs down the stretch, and the Ducks’ schedule sets up nicely for them to win the Big Ten and earn a coveted first-round bye. — Grace Raynor
GO DEEPER
Oregon’s epic win a testament to Dan Lanning’s elite talent-stacking
Why Georgia?
Talent and continuity win out. No team is elite this year, but Georgia isn’t far from it. Even with their flaws, the Bulldogs are a great bet. I can’t believe I’m the only one who picked them. Games are won on the line of scrimmage, and Texas may be the only team that can rival the Bulldogs’ fronts on both sides of the ball. Carson Beck still can play his way to QB1 in the NFL draft next year, and if he does, it’ll be because of his ability and not because his receivers made plays for him. Plus, he has a solid run game supporting him. — David Ubben
Why Clemson?
It’s hard to blame anyone who closed the door on taking Clemson seriously after Georgia hit the after-burners in the season opener, but the Tigers have cruised since then thanks to a deep defense, a bruising workhorse back in Phil Mafah and steady play from quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has thrown just one interception since Malaki Starks’ highlight-reel pick in Week 1. With tighter turnarounds and less certain matchups than its four-team predecessor, the 12-team Playoff is going to reward multi-dimensional teams that know how to peak in December. For all the concerns about the ceiling lowering on Dabo Swinney’s program in recent years, those are two areas in which you can still count on Clemson. — Eric Single
What does our projections model say?
Ohio State is still on top of the national championship race in Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff projections model, winning the national title in 21 percent of our simulations. The Buckeyes are followed by Georgia (16 percent), Texas (15 percent), Oregon (11 percent), Penn State (10 percent), Alabama (8 percent), Miami (5 percent) and Clemson (5 percent).
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Texas, Oregon at top; Indiana moves into bracket
Who will lose in the national title game?
Not only is Texas our most popular national championship pick, but it’s also our most popular runner-up. Twenty-six of 30 voters picked the Longhorns to get to the national title game in Atlanta, with 11 of those voters calling for a Texas loss.
Including the one championship vote for Clemson above, our staff voted for only five teams to appear in the national title game. Texas vs. Ohio State (16) is the most common matchup with more than half the votes, while Oregon vs. Texas (six) is the only other pairing to receive more than two votes.
National title game matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
|
Ohio State vs. Texas |
18 |
|
Oregon vs. Texas |
6 |
|
Georgia vs. Ohio State |
2 |
|
Georgia vs. Texas |
2 |
|
Clemson vs. Oregon |
1 |
|
Georgia vs. Oregon |
1 |
Who we’re picking to make the Playoff
Even with half the season remaining, there’s not a lot of variety in our predictions. Only 18 teams received at least one vote to make the 12-team Playoff, with Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Penn State and Miami going 30-for-30. Oregon surprisingly was left off one ballot but is still viewed as almost a lock, along with Georgia (29 votes) and Clemson (28). Three people picked Boise State to earn a first-round bye — remember, there are five automatic bids and the byes go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, not necessarily all four Power 4 conference champions.
Alabama (24), Iowa State (22) and Notre Dame (20) appeared on at least two-thirds of ballots. And shout out to Indiana, which appeared on three ballots in Curt Cignetti’s first season — after surely not being considered on any in the preseason.
The two teams that have plummeted from the Playoff race are Utah (71.4 percent of ballots in the preseason) and Florida State (67.9 percent), which are nowhere to be found on ballots now.
GO DEEPER
Which college football teams’ Playoff odds have changed the most at midseason?
Who will earn automatic Playoff bids?
All percentages are the share of our staff’s votes, not odds of winning. Find full Playoff projection and conference title odds based on our model here.
ACC
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
63.3% |
7.1% |
|
|
36.7% |
35.7% |
|
|
0.0% |
46.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
After five ACC teams received conference championship votes in the preseason, only two did at midseason: Miami (19 of 30) and Clemson (11). Nobody opted for a sleeper pick like Pitt (6-0 overall) or SMU (5-1).
Big 12
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
46.7% |
10.7% |
|
|
30.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
23.3% |
25.0% |
|
|
0.0% |
57.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
Utah was the pick of more than half of our staff in the preseason but has fallen off to zero with two losses and quarterback Cam Rising out for the season. At the top now are the two surprise undefeated teams, Iowa State and BYU. But Kansas State is still lurking right behind them.
Big Ten
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
66.7% |
85.7% |
|
|
33.3% |
14.3% |
Ohio State and Oregon were the only teams to receive votes in the preseason, and they’re still the only teams to receive votes now, even though Penn State and Indiana are undefeated.
And even though Oregon beat Ohio State last week, two-thirds of our staff likes the Buckeyes’ chances if they get to Indianapolis.
SEC
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
96.7% |
14.3% |
|
|
3.3% |
82.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
Texas has become the runaway favorite, receiving all but one vote to win the SEC championship at midseason. The other went to Georgia, which visits the Longhorns on Saturday. Alabama beat Georgia, but it didn’t garner a single SEC championship vote after its loss to Vanderbilt and a close call against South Carolina.
Group of 5
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
Conf
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
100.0% |
17.9% |
MWC |
|
|
0.0% |
39.3% |
AAC |
|
|
0.0% |
21.4% |
CUSA |
|
|
0.0% |
10.7% |
SBC |
|
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
SBC |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
MWC |
All 30 voters picked Boise State to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in tailback Ashton Jeanty and lost only by three points at Oregon. They have a pivotal game next week at UNLV, which is also in the mix from the Mountain West.
Army, Navy and Liberty are the three other undefeated teams. Army and Navy both have a game against Notre Dame to impress the selection committee, while Liberty continues to have a quiet season against one of the nation’s weakest schedules, which makes it a long shot despite continuing to win.
Who will win the Heisman Trophy?
| Player | Team | Pos | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ashton Jeanty |
RB |
40.0% |
|
|
Cam Ward |
QB |
30.0% |
|
|
Travis Hunter |
WR/CB |
16.7% |
|
|
Dillon Gabriel |
QB |
13.3% |
Eight players received votes in the preseason, and that number is down to just four. The favorite to win the award in December, at 12 votes out of 30, is Jeanty, who also topped our midseason straw poll showing how our staff would vote right now. Jeanty has 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns through six games. If he keeps up that pace, it may be hard to deny him.
A pair of quarterbacks for undefeated teams in Cam Ward (nine votes) and Gabriel (four votes) make the list, in addition to a handful of votes going to Hunter (five votes), Colorado’s two-way star.
(Top photos: Gregory Shamus and Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
Sports
Philip Rivers’ former teammate expresses one concern he has with 44-year-old’s return to Colts
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There is a good chance Philip Rivers sees some action on Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts take on the Seattle Seahawks in a must-win game for the AFC South team.
Rivers, 44, joined the Colts earlier this week as the team deals with a quarterback crisis. The potential Hall of Famer hasn’t played since the 2020 season, but when the Colts needed him the most, he answered the call and dove into a playbook to get game ready.
But what can any NFL fan think Rivers is going to provide for the Colts at 44? He’s changed so much since the 2020 season, as his opponents on the field. The Seahawks also have one of the best defenses in the league.
Shawne Merriman #56 of the San Diego Chargers walks on the sideline in the game against the Seattle Seahawks on Aug. 15, 2009 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. (Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Shawne Merriman, Rivers’ former teammate, told Fox News Digital that he expected him to play well but was concerned about one thing.
“It’s a tough week for him to get back. But I’ll tell you this, Phil’s upside was never his athleticism. It was always his competitiveness,” he said. “He’s the most competitive player I’ve ever played with, that’s one. And two, it was his preparation and his mental and his knowledge of the game of football. Those two things would always got Philip to be that elite quarterback. It was that. So, it’s not gonna be that much different as far as him moving around the pocket.
“The concern I do have is you can’t replicate football without playing it. So, you can have a coach out there, I’m sure he was throwing the football around with his high school kids. I’m sure that he was working out, but you can’t replicate football. So, I think he’s gonna go out there and look good. I think he’s gonna go out there and actually look like he did five years ago.”
When the rumors started that Rivers was potentially going to come to Indianapolis for a workout, Merriman said he wasn’t surprised.
Philip Rivers #17 of the Los Angeles Chargers looks for an open receiver during the third quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Dec. 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)
COLIN KAEPERNICK CULTURE WAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIED OUT AS COLTS AND OTHERS FIND QB SOLUTIONS WITHOUT UPROAR
The former San Diego Chargers star said when he spoke to Rivers during Antonio Gates’ Hall of Fame induction ceremony, it didn’t feel like the quarterback was completely finished with the game.
“I wasn’t shocked. And, this is why – a couple of years ago, I put on Twitter that Phil was still ready to play and this was I think in 2023,” he said. “And everybody’s like, ‘What? Well, yeah, right.’ He’s been gone out of the game I think three years at that point and then literally a week later or two, it pops up that the San Francisco 49ers, their quarterback situation with all their injuries, that they were thinking about bringing in Philip. And I said, I told you.
“I had a conversation with Philip and he didn’t say, ‘Oh, I’m coming back to play,’ but when you talked to him, it sounded like he was ready. It sounded like he was talking about the game in the present moment.”
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Merriman said he got together with Rivers and Drew Brees during Antonio Gates’ Hall of Fame induction ceremony and it didn’t like Rivers was exactly finished with football.
“So, I’m not surprised at all and it’s the right decision by the Indianapolis Colts.”
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Sports
UCLA’s Donovan Dent could be rounding into form just in time for Gonzaga showdown
Sometimes even Donovan Dent needs to be told he’s Donovan Dent.
“I just keep reminding him of who he is,” Skyy Clark said of his message to his UCLA teammate who has been pushing through a tough opening stretch as a Bruin.
The most highly coveted point guard in the transfer portal, Dent arrived on campus with the pedigree of an All-American honorable mention who was expected to immediately elevate his new team. Among his many talents were strong three-point shooting and an ability to blow by defenders to the rim.
He’s been looking more like that version of himself the last few games after a slow, injury-marred first month, a trajectory the No. 25 Bruins (7-2) will need to continue Saturday night at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle if they hope to beat No. 8 Gonzaga (9-1).
“He’s been showing a lot of flashes of who he is as a person, as a player, and we’re all rooting for him,” Clark said. “I think it’s only going to get better.”
Having a week between games might help. UCLA coach Mick Cronin said he’s been working with Dent on his shooting form, which curiously has been an issue for someone who made 40.9% of his three-pointers and 78.4% of his free throws last season at New Mexico.
Those numbers have dipped considerably, Dent making just one of 13 three-pointers (7.7%) to go with 62.8% of his free throws. He barely was making half of his free throws before a recent stretch in which he’s converted 10 of 13.
Perhaps the biggest concern has been Dent’s inability to embarrass defenders like he did as a Lobo.
UCLA guard Donovan Dent drives to the basket against Oregon forward Dezdrick Lindsay, left, and center Ege Demir, right, during the Bruins’ 74-63 win on Dec. 6.
(Jessie Alcheh / Associated Press)
“In the Mountain West, he was able to get to the rim in a way that he’s not able to get to the rim at our level, it’s just not going to happen,” Cronin said. “At the high level, it’s really hard. You can’t finish on some of the big guys you could finish on in that league — maybe in the bottom half of the league, you could just take everybody to the rim. First of all, they allow you to bump the dribbler; it’s more physical the higher up you go — it just is. It’s not a knock on it, it’s just the way it is. You know, the Power Four leagues now plus the Big East, the physicality is amazing.
“And in the NBA you can’t blow on a guy, but in college, it’s physical, and that’s what people try to do is beat him up, that’s the game plan. And everybody has the same game plan, like, we know, we talk to people, be physical, beat him up, be as physical as you can with him.”
Cronin said he’s been encouraged by what he’s seen over the last two games, in which Dent averaged 15 points and 5.5 assists with 3.0 turnovers while leading the Bruins to victories over Washington and Oregon. He’s also put abdominal and lower-leg injuries behind him.
That’s not to say that Dent can’t boost his game another notch or two.
“He’s got to have more confidence in his three-point shot, his pull-up shot and focusing on his defense on the ball, using his quickness for that,” Cronin said. “So there’s just different ways he can affect the game, which is going to be [key] for him to have a [professional] career anyway. He’s been pushing through it, he’s been working on it, I thought the last couple of games his effort’s been great.”
If Dent needed a template for perseverance amid high expectations as a transfer, he could find it in Clark. After arriving from Louisville, Clark struggled with his shooting and never scored in double figures over his first nine games as a Bruin.
Then came a 15-point breakthrough against Arizona in mid-December and an 11-point, nine-rebound, seven-assist showing two weeks later in a victory over Gonzaga.
“I had a slow start last year when I first came here and then as the season went on it started to get a little [better],” Clark said. “So, I just keep telling him about that and keep sticking with it.”
Money matters
Cronin said UCLA raised more money playing in neutral-site games against Arizona, California and Gonzaga than it would have by participating in the Players Era Festival.
“They raise money for our program to buy players,” Cronin said of neutral-site games with a laugh. “I mean, everybody else can talk about recruiting, you know, write about why kids pick schools — I don’t have time for it. I’m too old, I’ve done enough, it’s comical. We’re semipro, our guys do go to school, [but] guys pick schools because they get paid, so these neutral-site games help raise money. So next spring, when we sign a guy in the portal and you go interview him and he tells you he really bonded with me, and I’ve known him for two weeks,” you’ll know why he signed.
Etc.
Cronin, on the scheduled 8:30 p.m. start time against Gonzaga: “I mean, it’s ridiculous. I mean, why don’t we just play at midnight? … My dad’s real happy about it. He’s 84, he’s gonna have to take two naps on Saturday to be able to watch us play Saturday night.” … Cronin said the Bruins would honor UCLA alumnus Dave Roberts, manager of the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers, at a home game this season. … Six years after he uprooted his family from Cincinnati, Cronin said he would be happy to assist new UCLA football coach Bob Chesney with the logistics of moving across the country to Los Angeles: “I don’t know anything about football, but I can help him on where to live and just have his wife call us, we’ll help her.”
Sports
Sherrone Moore’s alleged mistress reportedly received massive pay raise in 2025
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The alleged mistress of former Michigan football head coach Sherrone Moore received a massive pay bump between 2024 and 2025.
The individual allegedly linked to Moore, whose LinkedIn profile lists her as an Executive Assistant to the Head Football Coach at the University of Michigan, earned just over $58,000 in 2023 and 2024, according to public payroll information. In the 2025 fiscal year, though, her salary jumped to $99,000, according to a salary disclosure report from the University of Michigan.
Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore leaves the field following the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan on Nov. 29, 2025. (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images)
That’s a 70.62 percent increase year-over-year — even higher than the figure circulating social media right now via UMSalary.info.
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As OutKick’s Trey Wallace reported, Moore was fired with cause on Wednesday in his second season as the Wolverines’ head coach. The move came after an investigation surrounding Moore’s alleged “inappropriate relationship” with a staffer.
And it’s hard to imagine the massive salary bump she received didn’t raise some eyebrows within the department.
“U-M head football coach Sherrone Moore has been terminated, with cause, effective immediately,” Michigan Athletic Director Warde Manual announced on Wednesday. “Following a university investigation, credible evidence was found that Coach Moore engaged in an inappropriate relationship with a staff member. This conduct constitutes a clear violation of University policy, and U-M maintains zero tolerance for such behavior.”
Michigan football head coach Sherrone Moore reacts from the sideline during a college football game against the USC Trojans at Michigan Stadium on Sept. 21, 2024 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
WHO IS SHERRONE MOORE? NATIONAL CHAMPION COACH’S STUNNING DOWNFALL FROM MICHIGAN ENDS IN JAILING
Less than an hour after his termination, police were called to a residence to detain the former coach under possible assault charges. Moore allegedly threatened to harm himself and others before being taken into custody.
As of Thursday afternoon, Moore is being held at Washtenaw County Jail. No charges have been filed yet, but he is expected to appear in court on Friday to be arraigned, according to Pittsfield Township police department.
Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore is shown on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium in College Park, Maryland, on Nov. 22, 2025. (Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images)
OutKick reached out to the University of Michigan and its athletic department regarding the staffer’s 70 percent pay raise, but they didn’t immediately respond.
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