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Our experts’ midseason College Football Playoff, national championship and Heisman picks

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Our experts’ midseason College Football Playoff, national championship and Heisman picks

How much has the outlook for the college football season changed since the preseason?

It may not feel like a lot, but The Athletic’s consensus midseason national championship pick received zero votes two months ago in the preseason, and the Heisman Trophy favorite is now a running back from a Group of 5 team.

In August, we surveyed 28 of The Athletic’s college football writers and editors for their preseason national title, Playoff and Heisman predictions. After seven eventful weeks of the regular season, we surveyed 30 writers and editors for updated thoughts on how the 2024 college football season will play out. Here are the results — and how opinions have changed.

Who will win the national championship?

Team

  

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

50.0%

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0.0%

36.7%

57.1%

6.7%

10.7%

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3.3%

0.0%

3.3%

28.6%

0.0%

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3.6%

Fifteen of our 30 voters predict that Texas, the top-ranked team in the AP poll, will win its first national championship since 2005 — a big change after the Longhorns received zero votes in the preseason. Ohio State, our preseason favorite with more than half of the votes in August, still comes in second with 11 votes despite its loss last week to Oregon, which received just two votes after getting three in the preseason. Clearly, most of our staff believes the Buckeyes are capable of getting revenge in the Big Ten title game and beyond.

Clemson and Georgia rounded out our national championship picks with one vote apiece. We asked one voter for each team to explain their choice:

Why Texas?

The Longhorns have been the most complete team in the country this season, ranking 11th in yards per play on offense and first in yards per play allowed on defense. They dominated Michigan on the road, they dominated rival Oklahoma in Dallas, and they have a chance to earn a statement win back home vs. Georgia this week. They also have depth, with the offense not skipping a beat when Arch Manning had to replace starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for two weeks, and it doesn’t even feel like they’ve hit their ceiling yet. — Matt Brown

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GO DEEPER

No. 1 Texas hasn’t peaked yet. What happens when it does?

Why Ohio State?

The Buckeyes were my preseason pick, and it’s hard to move off that after they played what was essentially a draw with another top-five team on the road. I would like to see more from Ohio State’s supposedly vaunted defense, but facing Oregon could be a pivot point where defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and the Buckeyes get a better idea of how they need to play against elite competition. The loss of left tackle Josh Simmons is worrisome. Maybe I’ll feel different if Texas womps Georgia on Saturday. I still think Ryan Day and Ohio State complete the mission. — Ralph Russo

Why Oregon?

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We were all curious about how Oregon would handle the moment in a marquee matchup against Ohio State, and boy did the Ducks live up to the hype. Dan Lanning’s team got its signature win and officially has everyone’s attention as a frontrunner to pull this off. Yes, it’s hard to pick against Texas, given how the Longhorns have played thus far. But Dillon Gabriel has the experience Oregon needs down the stretch, and the Ducks’ schedule sets up nicely for them to win the Big Ten and earn a coveted first-round bye. — Grace Raynor

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Oregon’s epic win a testament to Dan Lanning’s elite talent-stacking

Why Georgia?

Talent and continuity win out. No team is elite this year, but Georgia isn’t far from it. Even with their flaws, the Bulldogs are a great bet. I can’t believe I’m the only one who picked them. Games are won on the line of scrimmage, and Texas may be the only team that can rival the Bulldogs’ fronts on both sides of the ball. Carson Beck still can play his way to QB1 in the NFL draft next year, and if he does, it’ll be because of his ability and not because his receivers made plays for him. Plus, he has a solid run game supporting him. — David Ubben

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Why Clemson?

It’s hard to blame anyone who closed the door on taking Clemson seriously after Georgia hit the after-burners in the season opener, but the Tigers have cruised since then thanks to a deep defense, a bruising workhorse back in Phil Mafah and steady play from quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has thrown just one interception since Malaki Starks’ highlight-reel pick in Week 1. With tighter turnarounds and less certain matchups than its four-team predecessor, the 12-team Playoff is going to reward multi-dimensional teams that know how to peak in December. For all the concerns about the ceiling lowering on Dabo Swinney’s program in recent years, those are two areas in which you can still count on Clemson. — Eric Single

What does our projections model say?

Ohio State is still on top of the national championship race in Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff projections model, winning the national title in 21 percent of our simulations. The Buckeyes are followed by Georgia (16 percent), Texas (15 percent), Oregon (11 percent), Penn State (10 percent), Alabama (8 percent), Miami (5 percent) and Clemson (5 percent).

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Texas, Oregon at top; Indiana moves into bracket

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Who will lose in the national title game?

Not only is Texas our most popular national championship pick, but it’s also our most popular runner-up. Twenty-six of 30 voters picked the Longhorns to get to the national title game in Atlanta, with 11 of those voters calling for a Texas loss.

Including the one championship vote for Clemson above, our staff voted for only five teams to appear in the national title game. Texas vs. Ohio State (16) is the most common matchup with more than half the votes, while Oregon vs. Texas (six) is the only other pairing to receive more than two votes.

National title game matchups

Matchup Votes

Ohio State vs. Texas

18

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Oregon vs. Texas

6

Georgia vs. Ohio State

2

Georgia vs. Texas

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2

Clemson vs. Oregon

1

Georgia vs. Oregon

1

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Who we’re picking to make the Playoff

chart visualization

Even with half the season remaining, there’s not a lot of variety in our predictions. Only 18 teams received at least one vote to make the 12-team Playoff, with Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Penn State and Miami going 30-for-30. Oregon surprisingly was left off one ballot but is still viewed as almost a lock, along with Georgia (29 votes) and Clemson (28). Three people picked Boise State to earn a first-round bye — remember, there are five automatic bids and the byes go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, not necessarily all four Power 4 conference champions.

Alabama (24), Iowa State (22) and Notre Dame (20) appeared on at least two-thirds of ballots. And shout out to Indiana, which appeared on three ballots in Curt Cignetti’s first season — after surely not being considered on any in the preseason.

The two teams that have plummeted from the Playoff race are Utah (71.4 percent of ballots in the preseason) and Florida State (67.9 percent), which are nowhere to be found on ballots now.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Which college football teams’ Playoff odds have changed the most at midseason?

Who will earn automatic Playoff bids?

All percentages are the share of our staff’s votes, not odds of winning. Find full Playoff projection and conference title odds based on our model here.

ACC

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Team

  

Midseason

  

Preseason

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63.3%

7.1%

36.7%

35.7%

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0.0%

46.4%

0.0%

7.1%

0.0%

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3.6%

After five ACC teams received conference championship votes in the preseason, only two did at midseason: Miami (19 of 30) and Clemson (11). Nobody opted for a sleeper pick like Pitt (6-0 overall) or SMU (5-1).

Big 12

Team

  

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

46.7%

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10.7%

30.0%

0.0%

23.3%

25.0%

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0.0%

57.1%

0.0%

7.1%

Utah was the pick of more than half of our staff in the preseason but has fallen off to zero with two losses and quarterback Cam Rising out for the season. At the top now are the two surprise undefeated teams, Iowa State and BYU. But Kansas State is still lurking right behind them.

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Big Ten

Team

  

Midseason

  

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Preseason

  

66.7%

85.7%

33.3%

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14.3%

Ohio State and Oregon were the only teams to receive votes in the preseason, and they’re still the only teams to receive votes now, even though Penn State and Indiana are undefeated.

And even though Oregon beat Ohio State last week, two-thirds of our staff likes the Buckeyes’ chances if they get to Indianapolis.

SEC

Team

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

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96.7%

14.3%

3.3%

82.1%

0.0%

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3.6%

Texas has become the runaway favorite, receiving all but one vote to win the SEC championship at midseason. The other went to Georgia, which visits the Longhorns on Saturday. Alabama beat Georgia, but it didn’t garner a single SEC championship vote after its loss to Vanderbilt and a close call against South Carolina.

Group of 5

Team

  

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

Conf

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100.0%

17.9%

MWC

0.0%

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39.3%

AAC

0.0%

21.4%

CUSA

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0.0%

10.7%

SBC

0.0%

7.1%

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SBC

0.0%

3.6%

MWC

All 30 voters picked Boise State to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in tailback Ashton Jeanty and lost only by three points at Oregon. They have a pivotal game next week at UNLV, which is also in the mix from the Mountain West.

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Army, Navy and Liberty are the three other undefeated teams. Army and Navy both have a game against Notre Dame to impress the selection committee, while Liberty continues to have a quiet season against one of the nation’s weakest schedules, which makes it a long shot despite continuing to win.

Who will win the Heisman Trophy?

Player Team Pos Votes

Ashton Jeanty

RB

40.0%

Cam Ward

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QB

30.0%

Travis Hunter

WR/CB

16.7%

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Dillon Gabriel

QB

13.3%

Eight players received votes in the preseason, and that number is down to just four. The favorite to win the award in December, at 12 votes out of 30, is Jeanty, who also topped our midseason straw poll showing how our staff would vote right now. Jeanty has 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns through six games. If he keeps up that pace, it may be hard to deny him.

A pair of quarterbacks for undefeated teams in Cam Ward (nine votes) and Gabriel (four votes) make the list, in addition to a handful of votes going to Hunter (five votes), Colorado’s two-way star.

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(Top photos: Gregory Shamus and Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)

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Terrion Arnold, Lions’ 2024 first-round pick, charged with kidnapping and armed robbery in Florida

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Terrion Arnold, Lions’ 2024 first-round pick, charged with kidnapping and armed robbery in Florida

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Detroit Lions cornerback Terrion Arnold was arrested in connection with an alleged kidnapping and robbery that investigators say occurred in February, the Tampa Police Department announced on Wednesday night.

Police previously arrested six other individuals accused of participating in what authorities described as a “targeted armed robbery” on Feb. 4.

Arnold turned himself in and was taken into custody at Orient Road Jail in Hillsborough County on Wednesday night. He is charged with four counts of kidnapping and four counts of armed robbery.

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Terrion Arnold of the Detroit Lions looks on during the second half of an NFL game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis., on Sept. 7, 2025. (Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

“We are aware of the matter and have been in contact with the club. We have no further comment at this time,” an NFL spokesperson told Fox News Digital.

The Lions have not immediately responded to a request for comment by Fox News Digital.

According to investigators, Arnold rented an Airbnb in Largo, Florida, where he periodically stayed with several co-defendants: Arianna Del Valle, 19; Jasmine Randazzo, 19; Lyndell Hudson II, 26; Christion Williams, 24; Boakai Hilton Jr., 23; and Freddie Hughes, 27. Authorities said other individuals also stayed at the property.

LIONS’ JAMESON WILLIAMS WON’T BE DISCIPLINED BY NFL AFTER FACING ARREST IN GUN-RELATED INCIDENT: REPORT

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Investigators said three male victims, all in their late teens, suffered visible injuries after they were allegedly battered, held at gunpoint and pistol-whipped before being robbed and ordered to leave a residence in the 14000 block of North 46th Street in Tampa.

According to investigators, multiple personal items belonging to Arnold and others were stolen from the Airbnb on Feb. 1. Authorities said Arnold suspected two of the three victims were responsible, though Tampa police later determined they were not involved in the theft.

On Feb. 3, Arnold, Hilton, Hughes and another individual reported more than $250,000 in stolen property to the Largo Police Department.

Investigators allege that later that day Arnold and Hilton coordinated with Del Valle and Randazzo to contact one of the victims and lure him to an apartment.

Terrion Arnold of the Detroit Lions lines up before a play during an NFL game against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field in Detroit, Mich., on Nov. 27, 2025. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

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Police said the three victims arrived at the apartment on Feb. 4 to meet the women, where Williams and Hudson were allegedly hiding inside a bedroom closet. According to investigators, Williams and Hudson grabbed the victims, held them at gunpoint and assaulted them.

Authorities said Del Valle streamed the incident to Arnold, Hilton and Hughes as they traveled to the apartment. Investigators also said they recovered a group chat involving the defendants in which Arnold and Hilton allegedly gave directions to Del Valle, Williams and Hudson during the assault.

According to investigators, Arnold, Hilton, Hughes and another individual arrived at the apartment around 1 a.m. Police allege Arnold directed the group inside, and that Hughes, Hudson and Williams stole the victims’ personal property while the assault was ongoing.

Authorities said the victims were escorted from the apartment about 40 minutes later, forced into their vehicle and left the scene. They later reported the incident to Tampa police and identified the suspects.

Investigators said they believe Arnold was the primary organizer of the alleged scheme based on evidence gathered during the investigation.

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Terrion Arnold of the Detroit Lions runs onto the field before an NFL game against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, on Nov. 27, 2025. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Arnold, an Alabama product, was selected by Detroit with the No. 24 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The 23-year-old recorded his first career interception this past season in Week 9 against the Minnesota Vikings, though he was only able to play eight games due to a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery.

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Arnold played 16 games during his rookie season in 2024, tallying 10 passes defended and 60 combined tackles.

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Mexico celebrates magical World Cup win over Czechia at rowdy Azteca Stadium

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Mexico celebrates magical World Cup win over Czechia at rowdy Azteca Stadium

Mexico’s national team overcame a lackluster first half to beat Czechia thanks to a dream second half that allowed it to finish the group stage undefeated on a night that will be remembered as one of the greatest in Mexican World Cup history.

The celebration of Mexico’s 3-0 win Wednesday at Azteca Stadium turned into a tribute to legendary goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, who entered the game in the final minutes to receive a standing ovation unlike any other for a Mexican player in the history of the tournament.

Czechia was eliminated after failing to earn more than one point in the tournament. In the other group match, South Africa defeated South Korea 1-0 in Monterrey and advanced in second place. South Korea will have to wait to find out whether it advances as one of the eight best third-place teams.

Czechia put up a strong performance during the first 45 minutes, while Mexico showed little offensive clarity, mainly because of a lack of control in midfield.

Everything changed in a matter of six minutes during the second half, when El Tri figured out Czechia and secured its best victory in the group stage.

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Mateo Chávez opened the scoring in the 55th minute with the help of Mexico’s lethal counterattack. Luis Romo set up the goal by shaking off three Czechia players at midfield and pushing forward, passing to Chávez, who beat Czechia’s Michal Sadilek and buried a shot to the left side of goal.

Forward Julián Quiñones extended the lead in the 61st minute, exploiting Czechia’s defensive confusion in the penalty area.

Álvaro Fidalgo, who was a second-half substitute, capped the win with a stoppage-time goal. The run on the final goal was set up by a booming Ochoa kick and triggered a raucous celebration by the goalkeeper and his teammates.

The match encapsulated both the present and the future of the Mexican team.

Gilberto Mora, a 17-year-old midfielder from Tijuana and the team’s youngest player at the World Cup, was instrumental in the second half, setting up several of the plays that decided the outcome. With a 2-0 lead, one of the greatest moments for a goalkeeper in World Cup history unfolded. Ochoa replaced starter Raúl Rangel and was greeted with a standing ovation from a large portion of the 80,824 fans at Azteca Stadium.

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Mexico’s Julian Quinones celebrates scoring his side’s second goal against Czechia during a World Cup match in Mexico City on Wednesday.

(Silvia Izquierdo / Associated Press)

The fans chanted Ochoa’s name every time the goalkeeper touched the ball, honoring a player who has competed in six World Cups for Mexico.

Coach Javier Aguirre said that finishing first in the group was a “primary objective” for Mexico, which already qualified for the next round. The team achieved a first by securing three consecutive wins without conceding a goal in the group stage. Mexico defeated South Africa 2-0 in the opening match and South Korea 1-0 in the second game.

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Mexico, which is co-hosting the tournament alongside Canada and the United States, will face its next opponent — one of the best third-place finishers — on Tuesday at Azteca Stadium.

The only sour note for Mexico came in the scoreless first half when the restless crowd unleashed a popular homophobic chant at least twice. FIFA previously sanctioned the Mexican soccer federation in an effort to stop the chant.

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2026 World Cup Third-Place Standings: Who’s In, Who’s On The Bubble

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2026 World Cup Third-Place Standings: Who’s In, Who’s On The Bubble

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For the first time at a FIFA World Cup, finishing third in your group does not necessarily mean going home.

With 48 teams competing in 2026, FIFA expanded the field to include the eight best third-place finishers across all 12 groups. The top two teams in each group advance automatically, and the remaining eight spots in the 32-team knockout bracket go to the highest-ranked third-place teams, determined by points, goal difference, goals scored and other tiebreakers.

That means 12 teams will be competing for eight spots, and the race to stay in the top eight is one of the most compelling subplots of the final days of the group stage.

Here’s where the third-place standings sit heading into the final round of group stage matches on June 24.

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Third-Place World Cup Standings

Rank   GP Points Goal Diff.
1 Bosnia & Herz. 3 4 -1
2 Sweden 2 3 0
3 Scotland 2 3 0
4 Croatia 2 3 -1
5 Algeria 2 3 -2
6 Paraguay 2 3 -2
7 Cape Verde 2 2 0
8 Belgium 2 2 0
Cutline
9 Czechia 2 1 -1
10 DR Congo 2 1 -1
11 Ecuador 2 1 -1
12 Senegal 2 0 -3

The third-place standings will shift considerably over the next two days as the final round of group stage matches is played. Follow the live standings at FOXSports.com and watch every match on FOX and FS1, streaming live on FOX One.

Standings as of the end of Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar and Canada vs. Switzerland on Wednesday.

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2026 FIFA World Cup Standings Rules

How Do Points Work? How Do Tiebreakers Work? 

In a group, a team will earn three points for a win, one point for a draw, and no points for a loss. That could mean some teams are equal on points at the end of the three-game group stage. That leads us to tiebreakers. 

If two or more teams finish equal on group-stage points, here is the order of who finishes on top:

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1. Most points obtained in the head-to-head matches played between the tied teams;
2. Superior goal difference in the head-to-head matches played between the tied teams;
3. Most goals scored in the head-to-head matches played between the tied teams;

There are even more tiebreakers if any teams remained locked after all that. From there, ties are broken by these rules:

4. Superior goal difference in all group matches
5. Most goals scored in all group matches
6. Highest team conduct score in all group matches (taking into account yellow cards and red cards)
7. FIFA World Ranking

Which Third-Place Teams Will Advance?

To fill out the World Cup knockout bracket, the best eight third-place teams out of the possible 12 in the tournament will advance. The criteria for those teams are based on: 

1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Highest team conduct score in all group matches (taking into account yellow cards and red cards)
5. FIFA World Ranking

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