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Colorado weather: First lower elevation freeze and odds we see snow later this week?

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Colorado weather: First lower elevation freeze and odds we see snow later this week?


There’s no way around it. If you’re a fan of the cooler season, this October has not been kind to you so far!

We briefly discussed a possible pattern change around the 18th in one of our posts earlier this monthand like clockwork, looking upstream is at least going to try to pay potential dividends.

Breaking down the large scale pattern: for now, we stay under the influence of high pressure, keeping things dry and warm for most of this week. By Friday and Saturday, we will start to see changes to our weather.

A strong push from the pacific jet stream will crash onshore of the northwest US, bringing cold air to most of the western states. Models are a bit back and forth on how much (if at all) that energy is able to spin up a low pressure system in the Rockies. If you’ve been weather model watching, you’ll know the global models (GFS, GEM, and EURO) have been printing out everything from heavy rain, heavy snow, our coldest air so far this season, to at times not much of anything at all, and everything in between that.

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We’re still quite a ways out but we’re attempting to get a clearer image of what might play out later this week.

The most important aspect will be the placement of the potential trough.

The three images above are possible outcomes of this trough Friday into Saturday. The GFS (American), GEM (Canadian) and EURO (European) all show a big “bowling ball” type trough that spins itself out between Arizona, California and Nevada… never quite getting the worst of the system into our backyards in Colorado.

The data above is just one sample from each of those models.

We’ve talked about ensemble modeling before, which takes an average of a data set from these models. The latest from the Euro’s ensemble members shows the center of troughing further north towards the four corners. That indicates that there still is some background data skewing the average further north.

Regardless… the data are going to see big shifts this week as the models try to pin down an end product.

Now, let’s say the ensemble has a good idea on the track of this storm… what is it printing out in terms of snow/cold potential? Well, for a first potential snow, it’s not too shabby. At this range, this seems like a storm that would slow down mountain travel for sure… and potentially lead to a coating of snow for the front range. Some rough estimates on timing would put this storm in our area some time between Friday evening and through the day Saturday.

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The GEFS is particularly bullish:

The Euro is less so, and perhaps a bit more in line with its deterministic as of today – showing about a 30 to 40% chance of 1″ of snow in Denver this weekend, which isn’t epic, but would count for the first snow event of the season if we could pull it off!

We shall see! Friday is Denver’s average first snowfall, so if we can pull it off it’d be right on time!

As for those low temperatures this weekend, depending on strength/placement of the low, frost/freeze potential will need to be monitored. Above is the “most likely* scenario as of now for coldest temperatures by Saturday morning. Plenty of 10s and 20s in the mountains, with 20s and 30s along the front range by Saturday morning.

So, quite a bit to figure out still, but at least the weather is trying to be interesting… We’ll continue to update throughout the week as this storm approaches the region! Subscribe to the e-mail list to get the next article as soon as it comes out!



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Two-alarm fire damages hotel in Estes Park, 1 person taken to a Colorado hospital

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Two-alarm fire damages hotel in Estes Park, 1 person taken to a Colorado hospital



A two-alarm fire damaged a hotel in Estes Park on Friday night. It happened at Expedition Lodge Estes Park just north of Lake Estes.

The lodge, located at 1701 North Lake Avenue on the east side of the Colorado mountain town, was evacuated after 8:30 p.m. and the fire chief said by 10 p.m. the fire was under control.

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CBS


One person was hurt and taken to a hospital.

The cause of the fire is under investigation. So far it’s not clear how much damage it caused.

A total of 25 firefighters fought the blaze.

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Warm storm delivers modest totals to Colorado’s northern mountains

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Warm storm delivers modest totals to Colorado’s northern mountains


Arapahoe Basin Ski Area recorded 8.5 inches of snow through Friday morning.
Lucas Herbert/Arapahoe Basin Ski Area

Friday morning wrapped up a warm storm across Colorado’s northern and central mountains, bringing totals of up to 10 inches of snowfall for several resorts.

Higher elevation areas of the northern mountains — particularly those in and near Summit County and closer to the Continental Divide — received the most amount of snow, with Copper, Winter Park and Breckenridge mountains seeing among the highest totals.

Meanwhile, lower base areas and valleys received rain and cloudy skies, thanks to a warmer storm with a snow line of roughly 9,000 feet.



Earlier this week, OpenSnow meteorologists predicted the storm’s snow totals would be around 5-10 inches, closely matching actual totals for the northern mountains. The central mountains all saw less than 5 inches of snow.

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Here’s how much snow fell between Wednesday through Friday morning for some Western Slope mountains, according to a Friday report from OpenSnow:



Aspen Mountain: 0.5 inches

Snowmass: 0.5 inches

Copper Mountain: 10 inches

Winter Park: 9 inches

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Breckenridge Ski Resort: 9 inches

Arapahoe Basin Ski Area: 8.5 inches

Keystone Resort: 8 inches

Loveland Ski Area: 7 inches

Vail Mountain: 7 inches

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Steamboat Resort: 6 inches

Beaver Creek: 6 inches

Irwin: 4.5 inches

Cooper Mountain: 4 inches

Sunlight: 0.5 inches

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Friday and Saturday will be dry, while Sunday will bring northern showers. The next storms are forecast to be around March 3-4 and March 6-7, both favoring the northern mountains.





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Avalanche discipline, power play falters, Central Division lead shrinks in 5-2 loss to Wild

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Avalanche discipline, power play falters, Central Division lead shrinks in 5-2 loss to Wild


The Colorado Avalanche had a chance Thursday night to regain some real separation between them and the Minnesota Wild.

It didn’t happen, and special teams were again an issue.

Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek scored a pair of power-play goals, while the Avalanche took too many penalties and did not convert its chances with the extra man in a 5-2 loss at Ball Arena. The Wild scored on two of six power plays, both in the second period, then added a shorthanded goal into an empty net for good measure.

“We took six (penalties). Six is too many, especially against a power play like theirs,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “We had a slow start to the second and then just kind of started getting going, then took a bunch of penalties and kind of took the momentum away and swung it back in their favor again.”

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Mackenzie Blackwood was excellent early in this contest and stopped 31 of 34 shots for the Avs in his first start since the Olympic break. Colorado, which went 0-for-3 on the power play, has not scored an extra-man goal in back-to-back games since Dec. 31 and Jan. 3. The Avs are 2-for-31 with the man advantage since Jan. 16, and at 15.1% are last in the NHL.

The Wild are now just five points behind the Avs in the Central Division, though Colorado has two games in hand. Filip Gustavsson made 44 saves for the visitors.

“I think we crated enough chances to win the hockey game,” Bednar said. “We give up the (second power-play goal) and that’s the difference in the hockey game for me. We had a chance (on the power play) … we score and it’s a tie game. We haven’t had an easy time capitalizing on some of our chances that we created in the last month.

“I’d like to see that turn around a little bit.”

Minnesota took advantage of three penalties on Colorado in a span of 53 seconds to take the lead with 2:23 left in the second period. Captain Gabe Landeskog was sent to the box for elbowing Eriksson Ek away from the play at 14:15 and Valeri Nichushkin was called for cross-checking at 15:04.

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That gave the Wild a 5-on-3, but it went from bad to worse in a hurry for the home side. Brock Nelson won the 3-on-5 in his own end, but Brent Burns’ backhanded attempt to clear the puck out of the zone went into the stands for a delay of game.

Minnesota had a 5-on-3 for 1:56, which Colorado successfully killed off, but because Burns’ two minutes didn’t start until Landeskog’s penalty ended, there was more 5-on-4 time and Eriksson Ek scored his second of the night. The Swedish Olympian was trying to send a cross-crease pass to Kirill Kaprizov, but it hit the inside of Blackwood’s right leg and pinballed across the goal line.

Because of the extended penalty time, both Eriksson Ek and Boldy officially logged a shift of more than four minutes, leading to that goal.

“I’m not a big fan of the penalties we took, necessarily,” Landeskog said. “Obviously, mine is a penalty. Val, I felt like he was protecting himself and Burns, that’s a penalty. There’s nothing to argue about there. But yeah, that tilts the ice for sure and just gives them unnecessary momentum.

“So yeah, undisciplined and we’ve got to be better there for sure.”

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Eriksson Ek put Minnesota in front at 7:48 of the second period. Cale Makar was called for slashing when his one-handed swipe while Yakov Trenin was attempting to shoot from the left wing. Trenin’s stick broke, so Makar went to the box.

Blackwood made the initial save on Matt Boldy’s shot from the high slot, but Eriksson Ek was there near the left post to clean up the rebound.



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