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Fed minutes reveal lively September debate about whether first rate cut should be big or small

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Fed minutes reveal lively September debate about whether first rate cut should be big or small

There was a divide within the Federal Reserve about whether its first interest rate cut in more than four years should be big or small, according to minutes from the central bank’s September meeting released Wednesday.

A “substantial majority” of Fed officials supported lowering rates by 50 basis points at the last meeting, but “some” would have preferred to have lowered by 25 basis points and “a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes read.

Those who argued for a 25 basis point reduction noted that inflation was still somewhat elevated, while economic growth was strong and unemployment low.

Several said a smaller cut would line up more with a gradual reduction in the policy rate that would be more predictable and allow more time to assess any impacts on the economy.

Those who argued for a jumbo-sized cut said a 50 basis point move would help sustain strength in the economy and the job market while continuing to bring down inflation.

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Some even said there had been a case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting in July, and that recent data offered even more evidence that inflation continues to drop while the labor market cools.

Some of this internal division at the Fed was made public on Sept. 18 as the decision to cut by 50 basis points was announced, with Fed governor Michelle Bowman dissenting and saying she preferred 25 basis points.

No Fed official has voted against a policy decision in two years, matching one of the longest such streaks in the past half-century. Moreover, no Fed governor has dissented on a rate decision since 2005.

The Fed’s rate-setting committee was also almost evenly split on the number of additional rate cuts expected this year, with seven policymakers favoring one additional 25 basis point rate cut before year-end and nine members favoring 50 basis points of additional easing. Two policymakers expected no more rate cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference with reporters last month, acknowledged the dissent but also said there was “broad support” for the cut and a “lot of common ground” among his fellow policymakers.

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Il presidente della Federal Reserve Jerome Powell tiene una conferenza stampa dopo una riunione di due giorni del Federal Open Market Committee a Washington, Stati Uniti, 18 settembre 2024. REUTERS/Tom Brenner

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at last month’s press conference. (REUTERS/Tom Brenner) (Reuters / Reuters)

In the week since the decision, several policymakers have offered public support for a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points, citing progress on inflation and a cooling job market.

Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic has said that residual concerns might have led him to trim by a smaller 25 basis points at the September policy meeting, but that would have ignored a recent cooling in the job market.

Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said he voted in favor of cutting by 50 basis points because “the balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation and toward the risk of a further weakening of the labor market, warranting a lower federal funds rate.”

Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee also said he was “comfortable” with a 50 basis point cut, viewing it “as a demarcation” that the central bank is now back to thinking as much about achieving maximum employment as it is price stability.

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But a stronger-than-expected jobs report released last week now has analysts wondering whether the central bank will curtail rate cuts or if it moved too quickly with a 50 basis point reduction. There are also worries that inflation could be re-elevated as a concern.

Fed officials will get a fresh reading on inflation Thursday when the Consumer Price Index is due out. That measure is expected to keep in line with what officials want to see.

Economists expect core inflation — which eliminates volatile food and energy prices the Fed can’t control — held steady on an annual basis in September at 3.2% from the same level in August. Month over month, CPI is expected to have grown by 0.2%, compared with 0.3% in August.

Some Fed officials are urging a gradual path to cuts as they look to balance downside risks to unemployment with continuing to bring down inflation.

Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan became the latest official to voice that view on Wednesday, saying in a speech that “a more gradual path back to a normal policy stance will likely be appropriate from here to best balance the risks to our dual-mandate goals.”

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Powell made it clear in remarks on Sept. 30 that the central bank isn’t in a “hurry” to bring interest rates down and would prefer smaller cuts.

He also reiterated that the consensus of Fed officials outlined at the September meeting was for two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, saying, “it wouldn’t mean more fifties.”

Other officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem, and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee, all have said recently they favor bringing interest rates lower “over time.”

At the September meeting, according to the minutes, officials said it’s important to communicate that lowering rates should not be interpreted to mean the Fed believes the economic outlook has soured or that the Fed will lower rates more rapidly than the path laid out.

“Some participants emphasized that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity and employment. A few participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way,” the minutes read.

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Almost all participants saw upside risks to the inflation outlook as having diminished, while downside risks to employment were seen as having increased.

While Fed officials generally viewed the job market as solid, some said that the recent pace of job increases had fallen short of what was required to keep the unemployment rate stable on a sustained basis, assuming a constant labor force participation rate.

Many said that evaluating the job market had been challenging, with increased immigration, revisions to reported payroll data, and possible changes in the underlying growth rate of productivity.

Several participants emphasized the importance of continuing to use disaggregated data or information provided by business contacts as a check on readings on labor market conditions obtained from aggregate data.

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BofA revises Harley-Davidson stock price after latest announcement

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BofA revises Harley-Davidson stock price after latest announcement

Harley-Davidson’s new CEO wants to transform how people think about the iconic motorcycle brand, so the company is trying something different.

This week, Harley announced a new strategy that focuses on lower-priced bikes, rather than relying on older, more affluent customers to buy its higher-margin touring models.

“Back to the Bricks builds on our core strengths and competitive advantages, harnessing the passion of our riders to deliver profitable growth for the Company and both our dealers and shareholders,” Harley CEO Artie Starrs said this week. “As we drive towards this new phase of growth, we remain committed to the craftsmanship and dedication that define our brand.”

Entry-level Harley-Davidsons cost about $13,000, while the higher-end Adventure Touring models average about $23,250, and the Premium Range &CVO models cost about $38,500, according to Reuters.

Harley’s new strategy targets a core profit of over $350 million from its motorcycle business by 2027 and over $150 million in cost reductions.

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To kick off the new strategy, Harley is introducing Sprint, a new entry-level model powered by a smaller 440cc engine, later in the year.

Harley-Davidson is going after a younger demographic with its new strategy. Photo by Raivo Sarelainens on Getty Images

What is Harley-Davidson’s “Back to the Bricks” strategy?

Harley’s new strategy relies on more than just pushing buyers toward cheaper vehicles to increase volume. The 123-year-old company has a set of five pillars on which it is building its future.

Harley-Davidson “Back to the Bricks” 5-point plan

  • Deep appreciation of Harley-Davidson’s competitive advantages and legacy: The Company’s iconic brand, diversified and powerful revenue channels, and best-in-class dealer network provide a powerful foundation for growth.

  • Renewed commitment to exclusive dealer network to drive enterprise profitability: Harley-Davidson’s dealers are a competitive advantage. The Company is planning actions to enable dealers to double profitability in 2026 and then double it again by 2029.

  • Immediate actions to recapture share in areas where Harley-Davidson has right to win: Harley-Davidson has strong legacy equity in existing markets including new motorcycles, used motorcycles, Parts & Accessories, and Apparel & Licensing. The Company’s new strategy is focused on positioning the Company to regain share and drive meaningful volume growth in categories where it benefits from credibility, scale, and deep rider connection.

  • Strong financial position with a path to stronger free cash flow and EBITDA margin: Cost and restructuring actions already underway support a path to stronger free cash flow and EBITDA margin over time.

  • Bolstered management team with balance of fresh perspectives and institutional knowledge: Harley-Davidson has made a number of leadership appointments that support the Company as it leverages its innate strengths.

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What is Considered a Good Dividend Stock? 2 Financial Stocks That Fit the Bill

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What is Considered a Good Dividend Stock? 2 Financial Stocks That Fit the Bill
Source: Getty Images

Written by Jitendra Parashar at The Motley Fool Canada

Dividend investing can be one of the simplest ways to build long-term wealth while creating a steady stream of passive income. But in my opinion, a good dividend stock is about much more than just a high yield. Beyond dividend yield, investors should also look for companies with durable businesses, reliable cash flows, and a history of rewarding shareholders consistently over time.

That’s exactly why many investors turn to financial stocks. Banks and asset managers often generate recurring earnings through lending, investing, and wealth management activities, allowing them to support stable dividend payments even during uncertain market conditions.

Two Canadian financial stocks that stand out right now are AGF Management (TSX:AGF.B) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD). Both companies offer attractive dividends backed by solid financial performance and long-term growth strategies. In this article, I’ll explain why these two financial stocks could be worth considering for income-focused investors right now.

AGF Management stock continues to reward shareholders

AGF Management is a Toronto-based asset manager with businesses across investments, private markets, and wealth management. Through these divisions, the company offers equity, fixed income, alternative, and multi-asset investment strategies to retail, institutional, and private wealth clients.

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Following a 59% rally over the last 12 months, AGF stock currently trades at $16.67 per share with a market cap of roughly $1.1 billion. At current levels, the stock offers a quarterly dividend yield of 3.3%.

One reason behind AGF’s strong recent performance is its increasingly diversified business model. The company has expanded its investment capabilities and broadened its geographic reach, helping it perform well across varying market environments.

In the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 (ended in February), AGF posted free cash flow of $36 million, up 14% year over year (YoY), driven mainly by higher management, advisory, and administration fees. These fees climbed to $92.5 million as demand for the company’s investment offerings strengthened.

AGF has also been focusing on expanding its alternative investment business and introducing new investment products. With strong cash generation and growing demand for alternative investments, AGF Management looks well-positioned to continue rewarding investors over the long term.

TD Bank stock remains a dependable dividend giant

Toronto-Dominion Bank, or TD Bank, is one of North America’s largest banks, serving millions of customers through its Canadian banking, U.S. retail banking, wealth management and insurance, and wholesale banking operations.

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Following a 70% jump over the last year, TD stock currently trades at $148.14 per share and carries a massive market cap of $247 billion. It’s also continuing to provide investors with a quarterly dividend yield of 3%.

TD’s latest results show why it remains a dependable dividend stock. In the February 2026 quarter, the bank’s reported net income jumped 45% YoY to $4 billion, while adjusted earnings rose 16% to a record $4.2 billion.

Similarly, the bank’s Canadian personal and commercial banking segment delivered record revenue and earnings with the help of higher loan and deposit volumes. Meanwhile, its wealth management and insurance business also posted record earnings, while wholesale banking benefited from strong trading and fee income growth.

Notably, TD ended the quarter with a strong Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 14.5%, giving it a solid capital cushion. While the bank continues to spend on U.S. anti-money-laundering remediation and control improvements, its strong earnings base, large customer network, and diversified operations continue to support its dividends.

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The post What is Considered a Good Dividend Stock? 2 Financial Stocks That Fit the Bill appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

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Fool contributor Jitendra Parashar has positions in Toronto-Dominion Bank. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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UK watchdog says car finance legal challenge hearing unlikely before October

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UK watchdog says car finance legal challenge hearing unlikely before October
Britain’s financial watchdog said on Friday a tribunal hearing on ‌legal challenges to its compensation scheme for mis-sold car loans was unlikely before October, and told lenders to prepare for a possibility that the scheme could be scrapped entirely.
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