Finance
Fed minutes reveal lively September debate about whether first rate cut should be big or small
There was a divide within the Federal Reserve about whether its first interest rate cut in more than four years should be big or small, according to minutes from the central bank’s September meeting released Wednesday.
A “substantial majority” of Fed officials supported lowering rates by 50 basis points at the last meeting, but “some” would have preferred to have lowered by 25 basis points and “a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes read.
Those who argued for a 25 basis point reduction noted that inflation was still somewhat elevated, while economic growth was strong and unemployment low.
Several said a smaller cut would line up more with a gradual reduction in the policy rate that would be more predictable and allow more time to assess any impacts on the economy.
Those who argued for a jumbo-sized cut said a 50 basis point move would help sustain strength in the economy and the job market while continuing to bring down inflation.
Some even said there had been a case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting in July, and that recent data offered even more evidence that inflation continues to drop while the labor market cools.
Some of this internal division at the Fed was made public on Sept. 18 as the decision to cut by 50 basis points was announced, with Fed governor Michelle Bowman dissenting and saying she preferred 25 basis points.
No Fed official has voted against a policy decision in two years, matching one of the longest such streaks in the past half-century. Moreover, no Fed governor has dissented on a rate decision since 2005.
The Fed’s rate-setting committee was also almost evenly split on the number of additional rate cuts expected this year, with seven policymakers favoring one additional 25 basis point rate cut before year-end and nine members favoring 50 basis points of additional easing. Two policymakers expected no more rate cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference with reporters last month, acknowledged the dissent but also said there was “broad support” for the cut and a “lot of common ground” among his fellow policymakers.
In the week since the decision, several policymakers have offered public support for a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points, citing progress on inflation and a cooling job market.
Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic has said that residual concerns might have led him to trim by a smaller 25 basis points at the September policy meeting, but that would have ignored a recent cooling in the job market.
Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said he voted in favor of cutting by 50 basis points because “the balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation and toward the risk of a further weakening of the labor market, warranting a lower federal funds rate.”
Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee also said he was “comfortable” with a 50 basis point cut, viewing it “as a demarcation” that the central bank is now back to thinking as much about achieving maximum employment as it is price stability.
But a stronger-than-expected jobs report released last week now has analysts wondering whether the central bank will curtail rate cuts or if it moved too quickly with a 50 basis point reduction. There are also worries that inflation could be re-elevated as a concern.
Fed officials will get a fresh reading on inflation Thursday when the Consumer Price Index is due out. That measure is expected to keep in line with what officials want to see.
Economists expect core inflation — which eliminates volatile food and energy prices the Fed can’t control — held steady on an annual basis in September at 3.2% from the same level in August. Month over month, CPI is expected to have grown by 0.2%, compared with 0.3% in August.
Some Fed officials are urging a gradual path to cuts as they look to balance downside risks to unemployment with continuing to bring down inflation.
Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan became the latest official to voice that view on Wednesday, saying in a speech that “a more gradual path back to a normal policy stance will likely be appropriate from here to best balance the risks to our dual-mandate goals.”
Powell made it clear in remarks on Sept. 30 that the central bank isn’t in a “hurry” to bring interest rates down and would prefer smaller cuts.
He also reiterated that the consensus of Fed officials outlined at the September meeting was for two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, saying, “it wouldn’t mean more fifties.”
Other officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem, and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee, all have said recently they favor bringing interest rates lower “over time.”
At the September meeting, according to the minutes, officials said it’s important to communicate that lowering rates should not be interpreted to mean the Fed believes the economic outlook has soured or that the Fed will lower rates more rapidly than the path laid out.
“Some participants emphasized that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity and employment. A few participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way,” the minutes read.
Almost all participants saw upside risks to the inflation outlook as having diminished, while downside risks to employment were seen as having increased.
While Fed officials generally viewed the job market as solid, some said that the recent pace of job increases had fallen short of what was required to keep the unemployment rate stable on a sustained basis, assuming a constant labor force participation rate.
Many said that evaluating the job market had been challenging, with increased immigration, revisions to reported payroll data, and possible changes in the underlying growth rate of productivity.
Several participants emphasized the importance of continuing to use disaggregated data or information provided by business contacts as a check on readings on labor market conditions obtained from aggregate data.
Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
Finance
Crypto bill hits new impasse, raising doubts over its future
Finance
Stamford Finance Students Wow Judges, Take Home Trophy in Regional CFA Competition – UConn Today
A tenacious team of finance majors, who sacrificed most of their winter break to prepare for the CFA Institute Research Challenge, took first place in that regional competition last week.
Students Hunter Baillargeon, Dylan Fischetto, Richard Opper, Philip Ochocinski and Rushit Chauhan were tasked with researching and analyzing a major utility company, and then producing a 10-page report about whether to buy, hold, or sell its stock. They chose to sell.
One of the CFA judges said both the team’s report and presentation were among the best he had seen in many years.
“As a team, we were thrilled our hard work paid off and our many hours of work allowed us to achieve what we did,’’ Baillargeon said. “What we accomplished couldn’t have been done without working with such a cohesive and collective unit.’’
“From a technical perspective, I realize how valuable true analysis is and the importance of looking where others don’t for a differentiated approach,’’ Baillargeon said.
The first round of competition featured 24 college teams from the Stamford-Hartford-Providence region. The Stamford team, composed of seniors all of whom all participate in UConn’s Student Managed Fund program, received its first-place award Feb. 26 in a ceremony in Hartford. The team will advance to the East Coast competition later this month.
Stamford Finance Program is Robust
“The Stamford team’s advancement in this competition reflects not only the students’ exceptional talent and work ethic, but also the rigor and applied focus of the UConn finance curriculum,’’ said professor Yiming Qian, head of the Finance Department.
“Our Stamford campus hosts approximately 200 financial management majors. The Stamford program is a vital part of the School and continues to demonstrate outstanding strength,” she said.
Professors Steve Wilson and Jeff Bianchi, who combined have 75 years of experience in the investment industry, were the team’s advisers and were supported by academic director Katherine Pancak.
Wilson said the task of analyzing a utility is particularly complex because of the company’s structure and the regulatory environment in which it operates.
“I believe the Stamford team stood out because of the depth of their research, and willingness to take a bold stand, including the decision to ‘go out on a limb’ and recommend selling the stock,’’ he said. “They didn’t ‘play it safe.’’’
“This clean-sweep was a true team effort. They were tireless throughout, and sleepless too often, but they never wavered from their desire to always dig deeper and uncover any information that would strengthen our investment case,’’ he said. “What a phenomenal job they did!’’
Competition in Hong Kong Is Ultimate Goal
The Stamford team will compete against Loyola, Canisius, Sacred Heart; Seton Hall, Villanova, St. Michaels, Western New England, University of Maine, Fordham and Penn State next. In total, some 8,000 students are expected to participate in various competitions worldwide, culminating in a championship round in Hong Kong in May.
Wilson said the financial industry is always welcoming of new talent. And when one of the judges told him that the Stamford team produced some of the best work that he’d seen in years, Wilson felt tremendous pride for the students.
“Finance is an open playing field. In investments, the best idea wins,’’ he said.
Baillargeon said he will always appreciate the whole team’s dedication.
“What I’ll remember most is the help of our advisers and our cohesive, close-knit team where everyone pulled their weight,’’ Baillargeon said. “We put in long hours, did a tremendous amount of research, and collaborated well together. I hope when I enter the workforce I get to work with a team as committed as this one is.’’
Finance
Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath
Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers
Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers
https://lindseyhorvath.lacounty.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image003-1024×888.jpg
1024
888
Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath
//lindseyhorvath.lacounty.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/horvath.light_.pink_.v3.png
-
World1 week agoExclusive: DeepSeek withholds latest AI model from US chipmakers including Nvidia, sources say
-
Massachusetts1 week agoMother and daughter injured in Taunton house explosion
-
Wisconsin3 days agoSetting sail on iceboats across a frozen lake in Wisconsin
-
Maryland4 days agoAM showers Sunday in Maryland
-
Denver, CO1 week ago10 acres charred, 5 injured in Thornton grass fire, evacuation orders lifted
-
Florida4 days agoFlorida man rescued after being stuck in shoulder-deep mud for days
-
Massachusetts2 days agoMassachusetts man awaits word from family in Iran after attacks
-
Oregon6 days ago2026 OSAA Oregon Wrestling State Championship Results And Brackets – FloWrestling