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Why Man City’s legal case means they have incredibly strange relegation odds

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Why Man City’s legal case means they have incredibly strange relegation odds

Manchester City have won the Premier League four times in a row and are unbeaten after seven matches this season.

But they are more likely to be relegated than Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham and West Ham United, according to bookmakers.

City are 12/1 to be relegated this season, with Arsenal and Liverpool, their two most prominent domestic rivals, priced at 2,000/1 to drop into the Championship.

This has nothing to do with their consecutive draws against Arsenal and Newcastle United, nor is it down to Rodri being out for the season with an anterior cruciate ligament injury he sustained against Arsenal in September.

There is no correlation between what they are producing on the pitch and the possibility of them playing in the English Football League next year.

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Betting companies have shifted their odds due to City’s legal dispute with the Premier League — concerning the 100-plus charges levelled against the club — and the prospect of a significant points deduction if they are found guilty.


There is an ongoing case between City and the Premier League (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

“From an industry point of view, the usual way of forming your relegation odds is to take the title odds and flip them the other way,” explains Alan Alger, a gambling consultant. “This is the first time it hasn’t happened.

“It is unprecedented that you would have a very short price for the title and then also what is a relatively short price for relegation. That can only be because the threat of relegation exists because of a relegation sanction or because of a big enough points deduction that puts them in the mix to be relegated.”


What is the latest regarding Manchester City’s 115 charges?

The hearing that will decide whether City broke any of the Premier League’s financial rules started on September 16 and is taking place in London.

It took more than 18 months to get to this stage, with the Premier League announcing the charges in February 2023. The hearing is expected to last around two and a half months.

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The club is accused of multiple alleged breaches of a financial nature, including accusations they injected revenue by inflating sponsorship deals, while also hiding some costs by not declaring certain salaries and image-rights payments.

The charges range from failing to provide accurate financial information, breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules, failing to cooperate with the Premier League’s investigations, not providing accurate details for player and manager payments and not complying with UEFA’s FFP regulations.

When a verdict is delivered, City and the Premier League can mount an appeal if they are unhappy with the decision. City have maintained their innocence and strenuously deny all the charges.

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How has this impacted their relegation odds?

Ordinarily, Manchester City, like Liverpool and Arsenal, would be priced at 2,000/1 to be relegated. This is a general price that makes clear bookmakers think there is no chance of it happening.

But in May, the market shifted and serious thought needed to be given to the likelihood of City receiving a points deduction that could lead to relegation.

“We were the first out in the industry in putting a price on Manchester City,” explains Bet365’s Steve Freeth. “We discussed whether we should offer a price because, quite clearly, the liabilities running out on 2,000/1 would be astronomical.

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“It was a case of some heads getting together, putting our fingers in the air and saying, ‘What’s going to happen to Manchester City and how do we see it?’, because it is so extreme.

“The price we fell on was 33/1 because you can’t know whether they will get nothing at all or be deducted 100 points. We went out in the market on May 19 with 33/1 and it has been a steady flow of business ever since.”


Manchester City vs the Premier League


Are people placing bets on City being relegated?

Yes, which is why their odds have shortened from 33/1 to 12/1.

“The kind of people backing it are your regular punters in the street, placing bets of £1, £5 and £10,” says Freeth. “They are the sorts of bets we are laying.

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“We are laying quite a considerable amount of those bets, hence why the price has dropped from 33/1 to 12/1 over those months.”

Freeth noted that Bet365 has “built liabilities into seven figures”, meaning if City are relegated this season, their payout to customers totals more than £1million.

“We have to protect ourselves because it is such a volatile situation and that’s why we haven’t been offering 2,000/1,” Freeth adds. “Manchester City could win the next 10 games on the bounce but the 12/1 price wouldn’t move a great deal. It is not about results on the pitch, it is about results in the courtroom.”


City have been in good form in the Premier League but this will not impact odds (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

“It is purely a case of bookmakers protecting against the chance of a large points deduction that puts them in the relegation market,” Alger says. “And in such a high-percentage market in terms of profit for bookmakers, because you have 20 teams and three winners, you can overload the percentage and there is no upside in going 500/1 for Manchester City.

“But the fact you can go 12/1 and only take a small amount of margin out of your overall market, there is no upside to going any bigger than those prices because you won’t get any prizes for doing so. As the season plays out, you will continue to see them at a false price for relegation in terms of the chance of it happening.”

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Have legal cases influenced sports betting markets before?

Everton and Nottingham Forest received points deductions last season, which has helped inform bookmakers on how to price in legal cases and potential punishments for relegation odds.

However, the cases involving Everton and Nottingham Forest pale compared to what has been levelled at City by the Premier League.

“Sometimes you can get a steer but there is such little information out there about the City case,” Freeth explains. “There was a steer last season that Everton would get a deduction of some sort, so that wasn’t as difficult to model. We didn’t think Everton would get more than 10 points, likewise Nottingham Forest.

“But just like everyone else, we haven’t got a clue (regarding Manchester City). That made us better prepared last season, but we have to stay vigilant and manage accordingly.”


Has a potential points deduction impacted City’s odds of winning a fifth consecutive title?

Pep Guardiola’s side are no longer favourites to win the Premier League, with Arsenal being viewed by bookmakers as the most likely club to end the season on top.

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“The difference between being 4/7 favourites and then being 8/11 favourites at the start of the season, it looks minimal, but the percentage difference is about the same as the difference between 12/1 and 500/1 for relegation,” Alger says.

And, according to Freeth, people are still backing City to win the league, with the market most recently being impacted by Rodri’s season-ending injury, as well as Kevin De Bruyne missing the last three matches through injury.

(Top photo: Matt McNulty/Getty Images)

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ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum questions Trump’s college sports reform meeting as potential ‘circus’

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ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum questions Trump’s college sports reform meeting as potential ‘circus’

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President Donald Trump will host a White House roundtable regarding college athletics reform later this week.

The panel is expected to include prominent coaches, college sports and pro sports league commissioners, and other professional athletes, according to OutKick.

The group will meet March 6 to examine solutions to key challenges, including NCAA authority; name, image and likeness issues (NIL); collective bargaining; and governance concerns. 

 

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President Donald Trump holds a football presented to him during a ceremony to present the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to the US Naval Academy football team, the Navy Midshipmen, in the East Room of the White House on April 15, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

The meeting Friday will include big names like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Adam Silver and Tiger Woods. Trump has been adamant about “saving college sports,” even signing an executive order setting new restrictions on payments to college athletes back in July.

However, ESPN college analyst Paul Finebaum, who has previously hinted at a congressional run as a Republican, remains a bit skeptical.

“The easiest thing, guys, is just to say this is ridiculous,” Finebaum said to Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic on WJOX. “And I read the other day, ‘Why is Nick Saban going?’ Why is anybody going? The bottom line is this. If something doesn’t happen very quickly, and I mean in the next short period of time, we’re talking about weeks, not years, then this thing could blow up.

“However it came about, I’m in favor of. The question now becomes, with some of the most powerful people in Washington in the same room, including the most powerful person in the country, can anything get done, or will it be a circus? Will it be just another show?”

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U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with former Alabama Crimson Tide football coach Nick Saban as Trump takes the stage to address graduating students at Coleman Coliseum at the University of Alabama on May 01, 2025 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Trump’s order prohibits athletes from receiving pay-to-play payments from third-party sources. However, the order did not impose any restrictions on NIL payments to college athletes by third-party sources.

A House vote on the SCORE Act (Student Compensation and Opportunity through Rights and Endorsements), which would regulate name, image, and likeness deals, was canceled shortly before it was set to be brought to the floor in December.

The White House endorsed the act, but three Republicans, Byron Donalds, Fla., Scott Perry, Pa., and Chip Roy, Texas, voted with Democrats not to bring the act to the floor. Democrats have largely opposed the bill, urging members of the House to vote “no.”

President Donald Trump looks on before the college football game between the US Army and Navy at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland, on Dec. 13, 2025.  (Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)

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The SCORE Act would give the NCAA a limited antitrust exemption in hopes of protecting the NCAA from potential lawsuits over eligibility rules and would prohibit athletes from becoming employees of their schools. It prohibits schools from using student fees to fund NIL payments.

Fox News’ Chantz Martin and Ryan Gaydos contributed to this report.

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Lakers hope comeback win over Pelicans gives the team a timely boost

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Lakers hope comeback win over Pelicans gives the team a timely boost
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Lakers center Jaxson Hayes falls after Pelicans forward Zion Williamson commits an offensive foul as Lakers guard Austin Reaves watches at at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday.

(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)

Matching the physicality of Pelicans forwards Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey was on the top of the Lakers’ scouting report. But the task is easier said than done.

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Reaves admitted to being “terrified” of stepping in front of a driving Williamson to draw a charge. The 6-foot-6, 284-pound Pelicans forward is just as physical as he is athletic, creating a fearsome combination for defenders. Healthy for the first time in two seasons, Williamson led the Pelicans with 24 points on 10-for-18 shooting.

“We haven’t seen somebody like that in a long time, right?” Smart said. “[With] his ability. But [being] willing to put your body there, take a charge, take an elbow to the face, box him out, go vertical, is definitely something that you got to be willing to do, and not everybody’s willing to do it. And that’s the difference in the game.”

Center Jaxson Hayes was up to the task. He absorbed a Williamson elbow in the fourth quarter and ended up in the front row of the stands holding his jaw. But the knock was worth it for the offensive foul that helped maintain the Lakers’ 14-0 run that quickly erased the Pelicans’ eight-point lead. The scoring streak started immediately after Hayes subbed back into the game with 7:20 remaining after he scored on his first possession, cutting to the basket for a dunk off an assist from Doncic.

Hayes had eight points, six rebounds and two blocks, playing nearly 23 minutes off the bench in his biggest workload as a substitute since Jan. 20 against Denver. After playing with Hayes in New Orleans during the center’s first two years in the league, Redick lauded the seven-year pro’s improvement. Hayes is sinking touch shots around the rim now. He has improved his decision making in the pocket. After getting benched for his defensive lapses last season, Hayes has impressed coaches with his consistent ability to stay vertical while protecting the rim. And he still brings the same trademark athleticism that made him the eighth overall pick in 2019.

“He consistently injects energy into the group when he runs the floor, blocks a shot, or he gets those dunks,” Redick said.

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Eileen Gu reflects on decision to leave Team USA for China: ‘A lot of people just don’t understand’

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Eileen Gu reflects on decision to leave Team USA for China: ‘A lot of people just don’t understand’

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Eileen Gu released a statement on social media Monday, reflecting on her controversial decision to compete for Team China despite being born and raised in the U.S. 

Gu’s statement tied the decision back to her passion for promoting women’s sports, and encouraging young girls to pursue sports. 

“I gave my first speech on women in sports and title IX when I was 11 years old. I talked about being the only girl on my ski team, and, despite attending an all-girls’ school from Monday through Friday, becoming best friends with my teammates on the weekends through the common language of sport,” Gu wrote on Instagram. 

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Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China poses for photos after the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026. (Photo by Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images) (Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images)

“At the same time, I was made painfully aware of the lack of representation – at age 9, I felt that I was somehow representing all women every time I stepped in the terrain park. Landing tricks was about more than progression … it was about disproving the derisive implication of what it meant to ‘ski like a girl.’”

Gu went on to express gratitude for the one season in which she did compete for the U.S. 

“When I was 15, I announced my decision to compete for China. At the time, I had spent one season on the US team, and had been lucky enough to meet my heroes in person. I am forever grateful for that season, and continue to maintain a close relationship with the team. I had spent every summer in China since I was 8 setting up summer camps on trampoline and dry slope for kids and adults, ranging from 7 to 47 years old, so I knew the industry was tiny. I felt like I knew everyone,” she added. 

“Skiing for Team China meant the opportunity to uplift others through the universal culture of sport, and to introduce freeskiing to hundreds of millions of people who had never heard of it, especially with the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics around the corner.”

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Gu’s statement concluded by acknowledging that certain people “don’t understand” her decision to compete for China over the U.S., while insisting the choice maximized the impact she would have. 

“I can look back now, at 22, and tell 12 year old Eileen that there are now terrain parks full of little girls, who will never doubt their place in the sport. I can tell 15 year old me that there are now millions of girls who have started skiing since then, in China and worldwide,” Gu wrote. 

“A lot of people won’t understand or believe that I made a decision to create the greatest amount of positive impact on the world stage that I could, at this age, given my interests and passions. Three golds and six medals later, I can confidently say was once a dream is now a reality.”

Gu has become a target for global criticism this Olympics for her decision to represent China while remaining silent on the country’s alleged human rights abuses.

In an interview with Time magazine, Gu was asked her thoughts on China’s alleged persecution of Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslim minorities in Xinjiang. 

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“I haven’t done the research. I don’t think it’s my business. I’m not going to make big claims on my social media,” Gu answered.

“I’m just more of a skeptic when it comes to data in general. … So, it’s not like I can read an article and be like, ‘Oh, well, this must be the truth.’ I need to have a ton of evidence. I need to maybe go to the place, maybe talk to 10 primary source people who are in a location and have experienced life there.

“Then I need to go see images. I need to listen to recordings. I need to think about how history affects it. Then I need to read books on how politics affects it. This is a lifelong search. It’s irresponsible to ask me to be the mouthpiece for any agenda.”

More controversy surrounding Gu erupted after The Wall Street Journal reported that Gu and another American-born athlete who now competes for China, were paid a combined $6.6 million by the Beijing Municipal Sports Bureau in 2025.

Gu is the highest-paid Winter Olympics athlete in the world, making an estimated $23 million in 2025 alone due to partnerships with Chinese companies, including the Bank of China and western companies. 

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Her alignment with China prompted criticism from many Americans this Olympics, including Vice President J.D. Vance. 

“I certainly think that someone who grew up in the United States of America who benefited from our education system, from the freedoms and liberties that makes this country a great place, I would hope they want to compete with the United States of America,” Vance said in an interview on Fox News’ “The Story with Martha MacCallum.”

Later, when Gu was asked if she feels “like a bit of a punching bag for a certain strand of American politics at the moment,” she said she does. 

“I do,” she said. “So many athletes compete for a different country. … People only have a problem with me doing it because they kind of lump China into this monolithic entity, and they just hate China. So, it’s not really about what they think it’s about.

“And, also, because I win. Like, if I wasn’t doing well, I think that they probably wouldn’t care as much, and that’s OK for me. People are entitled to their opinions.”

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Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China attends the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026.  (Hongxiang/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Gu has claimed she was “physically assaulted” for the decision.  

“The police were called. I’ve had death threats. I’ve had my dorm robbed,” Gu told The Athletic

“I’ve gone through some things as a 22-year-old that I really think no one should ever have to endure, ever.”

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