Sports
Why Man City’s legal case means they have incredibly strange relegation odds
Manchester City have won the Premier League four times in a row and are unbeaten after seven matches this season.
But they are more likely to be relegated than Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham and West Ham United, according to bookmakers.
City are 12/1 to be relegated this season, with Arsenal and Liverpool, their two most prominent domestic rivals, priced at 2,000/1 to drop into the Championship.
This has nothing to do with their consecutive draws against Arsenal and Newcastle United, nor is it down to Rodri being out for the season with an anterior cruciate ligament injury he sustained against Arsenal in September.
There is no correlation between what they are producing on the pitch and the possibility of them playing in the English Football League next year.
Betting companies have shifted their odds due to City’s legal dispute with the Premier League — concerning the 100-plus charges levelled against the club — and the prospect of a significant points deduction if they are found guilty.
There is an ongoing case between City and the Premier League (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
“From an industry point of view, the usual way of forming your relegation odds is to take the title odds and flip them the other way,” explains Alan Alger, a gambling consultant. “This is the first time it hasn’t happened.
“It is unprecedented that you would have a very short price for the title and then also what is a relatively short price for relegation. That can only be because the threat of relegation exists because of a relegation sanction or because of a big enough points deduction that puts them in the mix to be relegated.”
What is the latest regarding Manchester City’s 115 charges?
The hearing that will decide whether City broke any of the Premier League’s financial rules started on September 16 and is taking place in London.
It took more than 18 months to get to this stage, with the Premier League announcing the charges in February 2023. The hearing is expected to last around two and a half months.
The club is accused of multiple alleged breaches of a financial nature, including accusations they injected revenue by inflating sponsorship deals, while also hiding some costs by not declaring certain salaries and image-rights payments.
The charges range from failing to provide accurate financial information, breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules, failing to cooperate with the Premier League’s investigations, not providing accurate details for player and manager payments and not complying with UEFA’s FFP regulations.
When a verdict is delivered, City and the Premier League can mount an appeal if they are unhappy with the decision. City have maintained their innocence and strenuously deny all the charges.
How has this impacted their relegation odds?
Ordinarily, Manchester City, like Liverpool and Arsenal, would be priced at 2,000/1 to be relegated. This is a general price that makes clear bookmakers think there is no chance of it happening.
But in May, the market shifted and serious thought needed to be given to the likelihood of City receiving a points deduction that could lead to relegation.
“We were the first out in the industry in putting a price on Manchester City,” explains Bet365’s Steve Freeth. “We discussed whether we should offer a price because, quite clearly, the liabilities running out on 2,000/1 would be astronomical.
“It was a case of some heads getting together, putting our fingers in the air and saying, ‘What’s going to happen to Manchester City and how do we see it?’, because it is so extreme.
“The price we fell on was 33/1 because you can’t know whether they will get nothing at all or be deducted 100 points. We went out in the market on May 19 with 33/1 and it has been a steady flow of business ever since.”
Manchester City vs the Premier League
Are people placing bets on City being relegated?
Yes, which is why their odds have shortened from 33/1 to 12/1.
“The kind of people backing it are your regular punters in the street, placing bets of £1, £5 and £10,” says Freeth. “They are the sorts of bets we are laying.
“We are laying quite a considerable amount of those bets, hence why the price has dropped from 33/1 to 12/1 over those months.”
Freeth noted that Bet365 has “built liabilities into seven figures”, meaning if City are relegated this season, their payout to customers totals more than £1million.
“We have to protect ourselves because it is such a volatile situation and that’s why we haven’t been offering 2,000/1,” Freeth adds. “Manchester City could win the next 10 games on the bounce but the 12/1 price wouldn’t move a great deal. It is not about results on the pitch, it is about results in the courtroom.”
City have been in good form in the Premier League but this will not impact odds (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
“It is purely a case of bookmakers protecting against the chance of a large points deduction that puts them in the relegation market,” Alger says. “And in such a high-percentage market in terms of profit for bookmakers, because you have 20 teams and three winners, you can overload the percentage and there is no upside in going 500/1 for Manchester City.
“But the fact you can go 12/1 and only take a small amount of margin out of your overall market, there is no upside to going any bigger than those prices because you won’t get any prizes for doing so. As the season plays out, you will continue to see them at a false price for relegation in terms of the chance of it happening.”
Have legal cases influenced sports betting markets before?
Everton and Nottingham Forest received points deductions last season, which has helped inform bookmakers on how to price in legal cases and potential punishments for relegation odds.
However, the cases involving Everton and Nottingham Forest pale compared to what has been levelled at City by the Premier League.
“Sometimes you can get a steer but there is such little information out there about the City case,” Freeth explains. “There was a steer last season that Everton would get a deduction of some sort, so that wasn’t as difficult to model. We didn’t think Everton would get more than 10 points, likewise Nottingham Forest.
“But just like everyone else, we haven’t got a clue (regarding Manchester City). That made us better prepared last season, but we have to stay vigilant and manage accordingly.”
Has a potential points deduction impacted City’s odds of winning a fifth consecutive title?
Pep Guardiola’s side are no longer favourites to win the Premier League, with Arsenal being viewed by bookmakers as the most likely club to end the season on top.
“The difference between being 4/7 favourites and then being 8/11 favourites at the start of the season, it looks minimal, but the percentage difference is about the same as the difference between 12/1 and 500/1 for relegation,” Alger says.
And, according to Freeth, people are still backing City to win the league, with the market most recently being impacted by Rodri’s season-ending injury, as well as Kevin De Bruyne missing the last three matches through injury.
(Top photo: Matt McNulty/Getty Images)
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After its massive 1-0 win over South Korea on Thursday night, Mexico has won Group A and officially clinched a spot in the knockout round.
El Tri will play its Round of 32 game in Mexico City, and will face the third-place finisher in either Group C/E/F/H/I.
This is the fourth time that Mexico has topped the group stage of a World Cup, with the other three coming in 1986, 1994 and 2002.
With the win, Mexico remains unbeaten in World Cup group games at home, going a combined 6-2-0 (W-D-L), with two wins and a draw in 1970 and 1986, and now two wins in 2026.
Before the tournament began, Mexico was listed at +6500 to win the World Cup. Now, after winning its first two games of the tournament, Mexico has surged up the oddsboard to +5000.
Can Mexico build off its first two matches and make a deep run in this tournament? Let’s check out the updated odds for El Tri as of June 19.
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Team Mexico — Stage of Elimination
Last 32: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Last 16: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Quarterfinals: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Semifinals: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Runner-up: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Outright winner: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Mexico is currently +5000 to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup after winning Group A (Getty Images).
Mexico’s Past World Cup Results:
1930: Group stage
1934: Did not qualify
1938: Withdrew
1950: Group stage
1954: Group stage
1958: Group stage
1962: Group stage
1966: Group stage
1970: Quarterfinals
1974: Did not qualify
1978: Group stage
1982: Did not qualify
1986: Quarterfinals
1990: Banned
1994: Round of 16
1998: Round of 16
2002: Round of 16
2006: Round of 16
2010: Round of 16
2014: Round of 16
2018: Round of 16
2022: Group stage
2026: TBD
What to know: Mexico has made a habit of being in the running, but never really being in the running. Make sense? Consider this: El Tri made it out of the group stage in seven consecutive World Cups (1994-2018), but never made it past the Round of 16 in any of those years. In 2022, Mexico failed to make it out of the group stage, and it will look to get back to its winning ways in 2026 after a great start to the tournament. With its win Thursday night, Mexico has now advanced to the knockout stage in eight of the last nine World Cups. It is important to note, however, that Mexico has never made it past the quarterfinals at a FIFA men’s World Cup.
GUADALAJARA, Mexico — Three and a half years after its biggest failure on the World Cup stage in half a century, the Mexican national team needed only two games to advance to the knockout round of this year’s tournament as winner of Group A.
Mexico’s defense held off a spirited final push by South Korea, earning a 1-0 win on Thursday night at Guadalajara Stadium in front of a fiery announced sellout crowd of 45,522.
“It was a very tough game,” Mexico coach Javier Aguirre said.
Goalkeeper Kim Seung-gyu made a mistake in the 50th minute, failing to stop what appeared to be a simple cross and bobbling the ball. That allowed Mexico’s Luis Romo to easily tap the ball into the net and claim a 1-0 lead.
“In the end, a mistake was going to tip the scales,” Aguirre said.
Mexico goalkeeper Raúl Rangel blocks a shot from South Korea’s Son Heung-min during their World Cup match at Guadalajara Stadium on Thursday.
(Natacha Pisarenko / Ap Photo/natacha Pisarenko)
“You always want to be there; I felt it, and I got the chance,” said Romo, who started the game after starting the opener on the bench — a strategic change by the Mexican coach that paid off.
South Korea put pressure on the Mexican team throughout the game. Late in the scoreless first half, Jae-sung Lee came close to giving South Korea the lead. Aguirre hoped his team would shake off nerves following the emotional opener at Azteca Stadium and show more bite in its second game against South Korea, but his team didn’t have much power behind its attack during the game’s first 45 minutes.
The crowd in Guadalajara grew frustrated and began booing the Mexican national team’s performance at the end of the first half.
Mexico, however, won back their cheers when it capitalized on South Korea’s costly mistake and converted it into a goal.
Obed Vargas replaced Romo in the 71st minute and was close to scoring a spectacular goal if not for Seung-gyu’s save.
El Tri earned a win without any other goals thanks, in part, to a great night by goalkeeper Raúl Rangel, who stopped a header by Cho Gue-sung in the 87th minute. Captain Edson Álvarez helped turn away South Korea’s attack late, holding up relatively well despite having left ankle surgery during the past year.
“It was just a reflex,” said Rangel, whose club team Chivas plays at at Guadalajara Stadium. “I was very focused and stepped up when the team needed me, and I’m happy about that.”
LAFC star and South Korea captain Son Heung-min fired one shot over Mexico’s goalkeeper in the first half, but Álvarez cleared it off the line before the referee ruled Son was offsides.
South Korea finished controlling possession 58% of the time, but it only earned two shots on target.
“It wasn’t a good game because they didn’t let us do much,” Aguirre said.
Mexico was coming off a comfortable 2-0 victory over South Africa, while the South Koreans had defeated the Czech Republic 2-1, marking their first World Cup opening-match win since 2010.
During the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Mexico was eliminated in the group stage for the first time since 1978, breaking a streak of seven consecutive appearances in the knockout rounds. However, playing on home soil, the team’s goal is to emulate El Tri’s achievements in 1970 and 1986, when they reached the quarterfinals — the country’s best World Cup finish.
Due to the new 48-team format, Mexico would need to win two knockout-round matches and reach a sixth game to realize its goals.
“We’re taking it one step at a time; first, there’s the third game,” Romo said.
Mexico’s Luis Romo celebrates with his teammates after scoring during a match against South Korea at Guadalajara Stadium on Thursday.
(Natacha Pisarenko / Associated Press)
After the win over South Korea, Mexico will close out group play against Czechia at Azteca Stadium in Mexico City on Wednesday. El Tri will get to play the first two games of the knockout round — should it win the first one — at Azteca Stadium, a venue where it has never lost a World Cup game.
South Korea has four points and will be favored when it plays South Africa Wednesday in Monterrey. If South Korea wins the match, it would be the Group A runner-up and advance to play the Group B runner-up on June 28 at SoFi Stadium.
“We want all nine points,” Vargas said of Mexico’s goal entering its next game against Czechia.
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Who’ll win the Golden Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? The race is on for who’ll score the most goals at the tournament, and it is set to be one of the tournament’s most closely watched storylines.
Several of the world’s top forwards will be aiming to finish as the competition’s leading goalscorer. Kylian Mbappé enters the tournament after winning the Golden Boot at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while Harry Kane, Erling Haaland, Lionel Messi, and Mikel Oyarzabal are among the other players expected to challenge for the award.
And check out our list of all the 2026 World Cup goals, ranked!
Favorites To Win The Golden Boot
Harry Kane: +310 (bet $10 to win $41 total)
Lionel Messi: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Kylian Mbappé: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Erling Haaland: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Kai Havertz: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
Vinícius Júnior: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
Folarin Balogun: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Mikel Oyarzabal: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Lamine Yamal: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Raphinha: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Michael Olise: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Romelu Lukaku: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Viktor Gyökeres: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Cody Gakpo: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Cristiano Ronaldo: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
3 Goals
Lionel Messi (Argentina)
2 Goals
Johan Manzambi (Switzerland)
Harry Kane (England)
Erling Haaland (Norway)
Kylian Mbappé (France)
Harry Kane (England)
Elijah Just (New Zealand)
Yasin Ayari (Sweden)
Kai Havertz (Germany)
Folarin Balogun (USA)
1 Goal
Granit Xhaka (Switzerland)
Rubén Vargas (Switzerland)
Ermin Mahmic (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Michal Sadilek (Czechia)
Teboho Mokoena (South Africa)
Jáminton Campaz (Colombia)
Luis Díaz (Colombia)
Daniel Muñoz (Colombia)
Abbosbek Fayzullaev (Uzbekistan)
Caleb Yirenkyi (Ghana)
Jude Bellingham (England)
Marcus Rashford (England)
Martin Baturina (Croatia)
Petar Musa (Croatia)
Yoane Wissa (DR Congo)
João Neves (Portugal)
Marko Arnautović (Austria)
Jude Bellingham (England)
Marcus Rashford (England)
Yoane Wissa (DR Congo)
João Neves (Portugal)
Caleb Yirenkyi (Ghana)
Ali Olwan (Jordan)
Romano Schmid (Austria)
Leo Østigard (Norway)
Ayman Hussein (Iraq)
Ibrahim Mbaye (Senegal)
Bradley Barcola (France)
Ramin Rezaeian (Iran)
Mohammad Mohebbi (Iran)
Maxi Araújo (Uruguay)
Abdulelah Al-Amri (Saudi Arabia)
Emam Ashour (Egypt)
Alexander Isak (Sweden)
Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden)
Mattias Svanberg (Sweden)
Omar Rekik (Tunisia)
Amad Diallo (Ivory Coast)
Keito Nakamura (Japan)
Daichi Kamada (Japan)
Virgil van Dijk (Netherlands)
Crysencio Summerville (Netherlands)
Felix Nmecha (Germany)
Nico Schlotterbeck (Germany)
Jamal Musiala (Germany)
Nathaniel Brown (Germany)
Deniz Undav (Germany)
Connor Metcalfe (Australia)
Nestory Irankunda (Australia)
John McGinn (Scotland)
Ismael Saibari (Morocco)
Vinícius Júnior (Brazil)
Breel Embolo (Switzerland)
Gio Reyna (USA)
Mauricio (Paraguay)
Cyle Larin (Canada)
Jovo Lukić (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Ladislav Krejcí (Czechia)
Julián Quiñones (Mexico)
Raúl Jimenez (Mexico)
Hwang In-Beom (South Korea)
Oh Hyeon-Gyu (South Korea)
Own Goals
Yazan Al-Arab (Jordan; 1)
Ayman Hussein (Iraq; 1)
Mohamed Hany (Egypt; 1)
Miro Muheim (Switzerland; 1)
Damián Bobadilla (Paraguay; 1)
Last 5 Golden Boot Winners
- 2022 (Qatar): Kylian Mbappé (France) – 8 goals
- 2018 (Russia): Harry Kane (England) – 6 goals
- 2014 (Brazil): James Rodríguez (Colombia) – 6 goals
- 2010 (South Africa): Thomas Müller (Germany) – 5 goals
- 2006 (Germany): Miroslav Klose (Germany) – 5 goals
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