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LSU Tigers vs. South Alabama: Expert College Football Model Prediction

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LSU Tigers vs. South Alabama: Expert College Football Model Prediction


Brian Kelly and the No. 14 ranked LSU Tigers return to Death Valley on Saturday night with the program preparing for a non-conference clash against South Alabama.

The Jaguars head to town led by a fiery offensive duo of Gio Lopez and Fluff Bothwell propelling the program to a hot start this season.

A scoring tandem that has elevated South Alabama to one of the top offenses in the country, they’ll put LSU to the test in a Week 5 battle.

Here’s how to watch, the betting lines and an expert score prediction via the SP+ Model:

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Date: Saturday, September 28, 2024
Time: 6:45 p.m. CT
TV Channel: SEC Network
City: Baton Rouge, La.
Venue: Tiger Stadium

LSU: -21.5 (-110)
South Alabama: +21.5 (-110)

LSU to Win: – -1650
South Alabama to Win: +950

Over 65.5 Points: -110
Under 65.5 Points: -110

*All odds via DraftKings*

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We turned to the SP+ Prediction Model to give a better understanding of where the Tigers stand heading into this weekend against South Alabama.

The simulation favors Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers to come out on top over South Alabama in Week 5, as expected.

SP+ logged a prediction that LSU will defeat the Jaguars by a projected score of 42-23 and win the game by an expected 18.7 points.

The expert model gives the Bayou Bengals an 88% chance to come out on top over the Jaguars in Death Valley.

What is SP+? It is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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The SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage on the year with the latest round of predictions coming out this week.

First-place votes in parentheses

  1. Texas (44)
  2. Georgia (13)
  3. Ohio State (5)
  4. Alabama
  5. Tennessee
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Miami
  8. Oregon
  9. Penn State
  10. Utah
  11. Missouri
  12. Michigan
  13. USC
  14. LSU
  15. Louisville
  16. Notre Dame
  17. Clemson
  18. Iowa State
  19. Illinois
  20. Oklahoma State
  21. Oklahoma
  22. BYU
  23. Kansas State
  24. Texas A&M
  25. Boise State

Instant Takeaways: No. 16 LSU Takes Down UCLA 34-17 in Big-Time Victory

What’s Next for LSU Without Harold Perkins?

Nick Saban Calls LSU Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier a “Sleeper” Ahead of 2024 Season

Follow Zack Nagy on Twitter: @znagy20 and LSU Tigers On SI: @LSUTigersSI for all coverage surrounding the LSU program.

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Pair of Former Alabama Football Defensive Starters Commits to Ohio State

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Pair of Former Alabama Football Defensive Starters Commits to Ohio State


James Smith and Qua Russaw will be college teammates once more after transferring from Alabama last week. Per On3’s Hayes Fawcett on Monday evening, Smith and Russaw have committed to continue their careers at Ohio State.

Both former Crimson Tide starters and high school teammates at Carver High School in Montgomery, Ala., the two players came to Tuscaloosa as part of the 2023 recruiting class. Smith saw the field at Alabama first, playing in nine games during Nick Saban’s final season, while Russaw took a redshirt for that season.

During the 2025-26 campaign, Smith played in every game and started 12 contests, logging 28 tackles with 2.5 sacks along the defensive line. Russaw began the season as a starter at Wolf linebacker, then was injured during the first half of a game against Georgia on Sept. 27.

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Russaw made it back to the field in time for the regular season home finale, playing against Eastern Illinois on Nov. 22, but finished his third season with the Alabama program playing in only nine games. Yhonzae Pierre broke out at the Wolf spot in Russaw’s absence, and Russaw’s entry to the transfer portal became known one day before Smith’s intentions to join him there. Russaw recorded 14 tackles and one sack this past season.

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Both players put themselves in a position to be among the key players on the Crimson Tide’s defense in year two of the Kalen DeBoer era. Russaw and Smith each played in every game over the course of the 2024-25 season. Smith earned praise for his explosiveness during fall camp last year.

“James is such an explosive player,” defensive coordinator Kane Wommack said on Aug. 25. “[He] is in a really good position going into [Florida State] game week. Excited about him.” Also during fall camp, Wommack described Russaw as the freakiest athlete on the defense.

“He’s a special talent,” Wommack said Aug. 6. “What I like about Qua is [him] knowing when to and when not to, from a physical standpoint, be too aggressive. I think he’s learned a lot last year with the experience that he has.”

When Russaw got hurt, DeBoer said it wasn’t expected that the injury (a broken foot) would end his season. As it turned out, the Rose Bowl loss on Jan. 1 against Indiana was the last game in a Crimson Tide uniform for Russaw and Smith. The two combined for one tackle, an assisted stop credited to Russaw.

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Goodman: The day Alabama football became an underdog

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Goodman: The day Alabama football became an underdog


This is an opinion column.

It’s tough to see the Crimson Tide take it to the teeth again and again and again.

First it was the pummeling at the Rose Bowl and now Texas is taking its turn rearranging Alabama’s battered face.

The image of Alabama football might never be the same again.

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Alabama forgot how to run the ball last season. It was embarrassing to watch. The Tide’s top running back rushed for 13 yards on five carries in the 38-3 loss to Indiana. Quarterback Ty Simpson had the longest run for an Alabama back, but he broke a rib and fumbled the football on the play.

Not good. Sad stuff.

The problems with Alabama’s running game were all going to change in the offseason, though. Coach Kalen DeBoer had big plans. He was going to bring in a transfer running back and reignite the flame.

Yeah, about that …

Alabama was set to sign a new running back last week. Hollywood Smothers (great name) was planning to leave N.C. State for Alabama. That Alabama didn’t already have five running backs better than a guy at N.C. State would make Nick Saban toss his Oatmeal Creme Pies, but let’s focus on one new reality at a time.

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On Friday, Smothers flipped his commitment to Texas and coach Steve Sarkisian.

Oof.

But the hits didn’t stop there.

Texas also landed former Auburn receiver Cam Coleman on Sunday despite a max-effort push by Alabama that included hiring Coleman’s receivers coach away from the Tigers.

Is it just the money, or is the problem Alabama’s coaches and their broken offense, too? Either way, these are bitter days in Tuscaloosa. Don’t forget that Alabama also lost receiver Isaiah Horton to the transfer portal. On Sunday evening, news broke that Horton was headed to Texas A&M.

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A new week is here and so is a different perception of Alabama. The Crimson Tide is officially a college football underdog. Alabama can’t run the ball against Indiana, and it can’t outspend the schools in Texas.

Is Alabama poor?

Oh, wait. I know. If that’s the case, then no doubt future football governor Tommy Tuberville will know how to fix it.

Until then, Alabama football is looking more and more like Ole Miss every day.

Is it enough for Alabama to simply limp into the playoffs these days? Maybe that’s the new measure of success. I’ll take 11 wins and a beat down by Indiana over missing the party altogether.

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How does Alabama football get off the ropes and punch back? I don’t have an answer for that, but the beatings continue.

Alabama’s loss to Indiana in the College Football Playoff was the kind of thing that can reshape college football history, but losing all of Alabama’s players to Texas year after year is worse. First it was receiver Isaiah Bond after the Iron Bowl. Bond was the hero of the 2023 Iron Bowl. He’s the player who caught the pass from Jalen Milroe in the back of the end zone.

Bond was going to be an Alabama legend forever. Then he made a “business decision” to leave Alabama for Austin.

We thought it couldn’t get any worse, but that was just the beginning of Alabama’s losses to Texas.

Coleman and Smothers would rather play with Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning, and I can’t really blame them. Who’s going to be Alabama’s quarterback next season? No one knows. It’s either forever backup Austin Mack, or unproven underclassman Keelon Russell.

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I was hoping the Tide could maybe lure former Arizona State triggerman Sam Leavitt out of the transfer portal, but that was a pipe dream. Leavitt, the top-rated quarterback in the portal, is expected to choose between Miami and Tennessee.

Some readers thought I was crazy on Saturday when I wrote that Auburn is better positioned for the future than Alabama. Then Sunday happened.

Will Alabama ever win another national championship? Seems ridiculous to even ask the question, but things come and go.

Remember when Yale and Princeton ruled college football? Then it was Notre Dame and Michigan for a time.

What about Alabama? Yeah, the Crimson Tide had a good run, too, but that was before money changed everything.

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The running back that Alabama wanted chose Texas. The receiver that Alabama wanted went to Texas, too. Horton, a returning starter at receiver, is off to Texas A&M.

Who’s going to be on Alabama’s offensive line next season? No one knows that either. Everyone left.

Right tackle Wilkin Formby would have been a returning starter, but then he went to … you guessed it … Texas A&M.

Alabama’s offensive line was pretty bad last season, but can it get even worse?

When you’re an underdog like Alabama, it’s best to keep the salaries low and expectations even lower.

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Star Alabama WR will sign with SEC rival out of transfer portal

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Star Alabama WR will sign with SEC rival out of transfer portal


A bad day in the transfer portal for Alabama football got a little bit tougher on Sunday evening. Wide receiver Isaiah Horton, a starter for the Crimson Tide in 2025, announced that he’ll be transferring within the SEC.

Horton will land at Texas A&M, the same place as former UA offensive tackle Wilkin Formby. The wideout shared the news on his social media Sunday.

The Horton news follows a day in which Alabama missed out on a potential superstar replacement at receiver, when Cam Coleman announced his commitment to Texas. To make matters worse for the offense, running back Hollywood Smothers, who publicly committed to the Crimson Tide from NC State, flipped to Texas on Sunday as well.

Horton provided valuable size in Alabama’s receiver room. He caught 42 passes for 511 yards and eight touchdowns in 2025.

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The 6-foot-4, 208-pound native of Nashville, Tenn. led the Crimson Tide in touchdown catches. He had a knack for getting open in the end zone in clutch situations, as seen most clearly in the Iron Bowl.

As Alabama struggled against an Auburn team playing with an interim coach at Jordan-Hare Stadium in November, Horton caught three touchdown passes. He made his final scoring grab on a crucial fourth down late in the fourth quarter.

With Horton gone, plus Germie Bernard running out of eligibility, Alabama has just one returning starter (Ryan Williams) at wide receiver from the 2025 season remaining. The other spots will likely be filled by the likes of Lotzeir Brooks, Rico Scott and Derek Meadows.

Alabama will be facing off against the Aggies this season, for the first time since 2023. The Crimson Tide will host Texas A&M on Oct. 24 at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Undergraduate players are allowed to enter the transfer portal through Friday. Players who do can sign with a new team at any time, even after the entry window is closed.

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