Tennessee
Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities
US centenarian population to surge by 2054, census shows
Projections from the US Census Bureau indicate the centenarian population will quadruple from 101,000 in 2024 to around 422,000 in 2054.
unbranded – Lifestyle
Tennessee’s population is expected to reach nearly 8 million in less than two decades. According to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee is expected to be home to 7.94 million residents by 2040 — that’s a 13% increase from the 2022 population of 7.05 million, for which data is most recently available.
Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee is projected to experience an annual population growth rate of 0.82%, an increase of approximately 600,000 people. According to the data, that’s 35,000 more people than were added between 2010 and 2020. A period of steady but smaller population gains will follow and is expected to continue through 2070, when the population is expected to reach 9,250,000.
“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the findings. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”
Per university research, older adults are expected to experience the highest population increase of all the age groups. The Volunteer State is also expected to grow more racially and ethnically diverse.
Here’s how else Tennessee is expected to grow at both the local and state level.
Which Tennessee cities grew the most? See how population shifted according to the U.S. Census
A growing population of older adults
By 2040, almost 20% of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. According to research, that’s a 17% increase and a growth of 306,000 people from 2022. By 2040, people between 65-74 (815,120) will be the dominant age group among older adults, following behind will be people between 75-84 (506,795) and finally people 85 and over (204,895).
According to Harris, a growing population of older adults will not only affect the health care system, but will also increase the need for more housing, transportation and other types of personal care throughout the decades.
Age groups younger than 65 are also expected to grow, however, those populations will grow at a much smaller rate. For example, populations between 25-52 are expected to grow by 11%, while populations under 20 are expected to grow just by 2%.
A more racially and ethnically diverse Tennessee
More than half of the state’s projected population growth can be attributed to Hispanics, Black or African Americans or people who are of other races or more than one race.
The largest increase will be among Hispanics, who will see an increase from approximately 450,000 in 2022to 754,000 over the next 20 years — a 6.4% increase. By 2040, the Hispanic population is expected to make up 10% of Tennessee residents. Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native American populations will see a similar increase, growing from 307,00 to 470,000 by 2040.
While populations of Black and white Tennesseans are expected to grow as well, the share of the state’s population that is white or Black will decrease. The Black population will decrease from 16.4% to 15.4% and the white population will decrease from 73% to 69% by 2040.
How will the Nashville area population change compared to other Tennessee cities?
The Nashville Metro Statistical Area, which includes Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin, is projected to see a 28% growth rate in 2040, bringing the total population to 2,642,779.
The Knoxville area will experience an 11% increase in 2040 bringing its total population to 1,038,122. The Chattanooga area is projected to experience a 13% increase in 2040, bringing the total population 474,768. On the other hand, the Memphis area is projected to experience a 3.4% decrease in population, lowering its 2040 population to 986, 741.
Methodology
The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research developed its population estimates using a cohort component model. Projections were conducted at the county level for each combination of race, sex and age, using internal data well as from the United States Census Bureau and the Tennessee Department of Health.
In order to determine individual areas’ population by race, sex and age for each year, information about birth rates, deathr rates and net migration was factored.
To learn more about the methodology, visit tnsdc.utk.edu.
Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana
One of the nation’s fast-rising 7v7 events made it back to the Atlanta area as The Sevens 7v7 tournament was held at Peachtree Ridge High School over the weekend.
Many of the top organizations across the country registered and entered the tournament such as Hustle INC, C1N, NPA, 24K Cold Hearts, and Fast Houston.
The amount of star power each brand displayed with many of the top athletes from all of the country was insane to fathom.
One of the nation’s coveted 2028 cornerbacks was in attendance as Jermaine Cobbins and NPA showed up on a mission.
NPA earned the number 1 seed during pool play on the first day of the event. The team fell just short of the championship game, but the players went down swinging.
Vols on SI caught up with Cobbins to discuss any recruiting updates, and to shed light on an off-field story that deserves some attention.
Jermaine Cobbins Update
“The recruitment is going great,” Cobbins said.
“You know, a lot of teams are showing love,” Cobbins continued. Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M were a few schools mentioned to be showing a lot of love to the Tennessee native.
Cobbins has plans to get on the road once dead period is over.
March 2- Auburn
March 6- USC (potentially)
March 13- Alabama
March 17- Georgia
March 19- Tennessee
March 21- Vanderbilt
As Cobbins is wrapping up his sophomore year and on his way to becoming a junior, the pace will pick up as schools will come on stronger as some will fall back. The talented defender has to check boxes of his on while spending time with each school.
“The main thing I’ll be looking for is probably how much love are they going to be showing, their background (track record), and how the coaches coach,” Cobbins explained.
With a visit to Rocky Top in a few weeks looming, this will be the first time Cobbins has made it to Tennessee since the staff changes on the defense.
Cobbins had a relationship with Coach Michael Hunter Jr., who joined the Volunteers staff for a very short time before taking an opportunity in the NFL.
“Me and the corners coach had a great relationship, he came (to UT) but he left out for the NFL, so kudos to him. Love that for him. I’ve met Coach Poindexter. He’s a great coach,” Cobbins said.
The coaching staff at Tennessee stands out to the Springfield (TN) student-athlete as, “they coach at a high level.” Cobbins would go on to describe how the Vols pulling in great talent truly has an impact because you get to practice against some talented players day in and day out.
Cobbins Gives Back
Cobbins recently had the opportunity to give back to the next generation, and it was no surprise to see this act carried out, so Vols on SI had to ask about this act of kindness before concluding the interview.
“That was very important (to me), you know. It just really made me feel good inside. I always love giving back to the little kids, especially from my hometown,” Cobbins said with a smile.
Cobbins understands the small-town life, and how such a simple gesture can make a huge difference. Talent aside, this is an A+ young man.
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Published on Mar. 4, 2026
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Vanderbilt basketball guard Frankie Collins is leaving the program, head coach Mark Byington announced on Tuesday night. The news comes just days before the Commodores are set to face off against Tennessee in the regular season finale, with the Volunteers looking to clinch a top-four seed and double-bye in the SEC Tournament.
Why it matters
Collins was Vanderbilt’s most highly touted transfer last offseason, but injuries limited him to just nine games this season. His departure leaves the Commodores shorthanded heading into a crucial matchup against their in-state rival Tennessee, who are seeking to complete a regular season sweep.
The details
The 6-foot-1 guard averaged 7.8 points, 4.7 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game this season, but suffered a meniscus injury in December that sidelined him for the majority of the year. With the emergence of sophomore point guard Tyler Tanner and Oklahoma transfer Duke Miles, Collins never quite found his footing in the Vanderbilt lineup.
- Frankie Collins left the Vanderbilt program on Tuesday, March 4, 2026.
- Vanderbilt is scheduled to face Tennessee on Saturday, March 8, 2026.
The players
Frankie Collins
A 6-foot-1 guard who was Vanderbilt’s most highly touted transfer last offseason, coming to Nashville after spending the 2024-25 season at TCU and the three prior years at Arizona State and Michigan.
Mark Byington
The head coach of the Vanderbilt Commodores basketball team.
Tyler Tanner
The sophomore point guard who emerged as a key player for Vanderbilt this season.
Duke Miles
An Oklahoma transfer shooting guard who joined the Vanderbilt roster this season.
Rick Barnes
The head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers basketball team.
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What they’re saying
“Frankie has left Nashville, and he’s not gonna be on the team. It’s gonna be good for both sides of it. We wish him well. So we’ll roll with the guys we got.”
— Mark Byington, Head Coach, Vanderbilt Commodores (rockytopinsider.com)
What’s next
With a victory over Vanderbilt, Tennessee will clinch a top four-seed and a double-bye in next week’s SEC Tournament. Vanderbilt could potentially earn a double-bye themselves with a win and a little extra help.
The takeaway
The loss of Frankie Collins leaves Vanderbilt shorthanded heading into a crucial matchup against in-state rival Tennessee, who are seeking to complete a regular season sweep. The Commodores will have to rely on the emergence of players like Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles to try and pull off the upset and keep their own postseason hopes alive.
Published on Mar. 3, 2026
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According to ESPN’s latest NFL mock draft, three former Tennessee Volunteers players are projected to be selected in the top 60 picks of the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft. Cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Colton Hood are both projected to be first-round picks, while wide receiver Chris Brazzell II is projected to be a second-round selection.
Why it matters
The strong NFL Draft projections for Tennessee players highlight the continued talent development and success of the Volunteers football program under head coach Josh Heupel. If these projections hold true, it would mark the first time Tennessee has had two first-round picks and three players selected in the top 60 overall during Heupel’s tenure.
The details
Cornerback Jermod McCoy is projected to be selected 29th overall by the Los Angeles Rams, despite not participating in on-field workouts at the NFL Combine due to a previous ACL injury. Teammate Colton Hood is projected to be the final pick of the first round, going 32nd overall to the Seattle Seahawks. Wide receiver Chris Brazzell II impressed at the Combine with a 4.37 40-yard dash and is projected to be a second-round pick, going 60th overall to the Buffalo Bills.
- The NFL Combine was held in late February 2026.
- Tennessee’s Pro Day workouts are scheduled for the end of March 2026.
- The 2026 NFL Draft will take place in April-May 2026.
The players
Jermod McCoy
A cornerback for the Tennessee Volunteers who is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, despite missing the 2025 season due to an ACL injury.
Colton Hood
A cornerback for the Tennessee Volunteers who is projected to be a first-round pick, going 32nd overall to the Seattle Seahawks in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Chris Brazzell II
A wide receiver for the Tennessee Volunteers who impressed at the NFL Combine with a 4.37 40-yard dash and is projected to be a second-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
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What they’re saying
“If we’re going strictly by talent, McCoy is a top-10 prospect in this class. But he hasn’t played a game since 2024, missing all of last season after suffering an ACL tear in January 2025. We’re still not sure where he’s at in his recovery, as he did not participate in testing or drills at the combine. This gives the Rams — who haven’t drafted a corner in the first round since 2006 or before Day 3 since 2019 — the potential to get a steal here. McCoy is an easy mover who has squeaky-clean technique.”
— Jordan Reid, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)
“The reigning champions have a clear need at corner, as Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen are both scheduled to be free agents. Hood is a scheme-versatile player who can thrive in press man while also having the fluidity to excel in zone. A former all-state center fielder in high school, Hood’s ball skills frequently show up on tape (10 pass breakups and an interception last season). With his poised technique and wrap-up-and-finish tackling, he would fit well on the outside of Mike Macdonald’s secondary.”
— Jordan Reid, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)
“The Bills need someone who can separate on the outside, and Brazzell is an ‘X’ receiver who can be a deep vertical threat. He can also sink his weight and run a true route tree, making him a good fit with quarterback Josh Allen.”
— Jordan Reid, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)
What’s next
Tennessee’s Pro Day workouts are scheduled for the end of March 2026, where McCoy plans to participate in on-field drills to further showcase his recovery from the ACL injury. Strong performances at the Pro Day could potentially push McCoy back up draft boards into the top half of the first round.
The takeaway
The strong NFL Draft projections for Tennessee players demonstrate the continued talent development and success of the Volunteers football program under head coach Josh Heupel. If these projections hold true, it would mark a significant milestone for the program, with Tennessee potentially having two first-round picks and three players selected in the top 60 overall for the first time during Heupel’s tenure.
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