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Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities

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Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities


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Tennessee’s population is expected to reach nearly 8 million in less than two decades. According to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee is expected to be home to 7.94 million residents by 2040 — that’s a 13% increase from the 2022 population of 7.05 million, for which data is most recently available.

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Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee is projected to experience an annual population growth rate of 0.82%, an increase of approximately 600,000 people. According to the data, that’s 35,000 more people than were added between 2010 and 2020. A period of steady but smaller population gains will follow and is expected to continue through 2070, when the population is expected to reach 9,250,000.

“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the findings. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”

Per university research, older adults are expected to experience the highest population increase of all the age groups. The Volunteer State is also expected to grow more racially and ethnically diverse.

Here’s how else Tennessee is expected to grow at both the local and state level.

Which Tennessee cities grew the most? See how population shifted according to the U.S. Census

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A growing population of older adults

By 2040, almost 20% of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. According to research, that’s a 17% increase and a growth of 306,000 people from 2022. By 2040, people between 65-74 (815,120) will be the dominant age group among older adults, following behind will be people between 75-84 (506,795) and finally people 85 and over (204,895).

According to Harris, a growing population of older adults will not only affect the health care system, but will also increase the need for more housing, transportation and other types of personal care throughout the decades.

Age groups younger than 65 are also expected to grow, however, those populations will grow at a much smaller rate. For example, populations between 25-52 are expected to grow by 11%, while populations under 20 are expected to grow just by 2%.

A more racially and ethnically diverse Tennessee

More than half of the state’s projected population growth can be attributed to Hispanics, Black or African Americans or people who are of other races or more than one race.

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The largest increase will be among Hispanics, who will see an increase from approximately 450,000 in 2022to 754,000 over the next 20 years — a 6.4% increase. By 2040, the Hispanic population is expected to make up 10% of Tennessee residents. Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native American populations will see a similar increase, growing from 307,00 to 470,000 by 2040.

While populations of Black and white Tennesseans are expected to grow as well, the share of the state’s population that is white or Black will decrease. The Black population will decrease from 16.4% to 15.4% and the white population will decrease from 73% to 69% by 2040.

How will the Nashville area population change compared to other Tennessee cities?

The Nashville Metro Statistical Area, which includes Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin, is projected to see a 28% growth rate in 2040, bringing the total population to 2,642,779.

The Knoxville area will experience an 11% increase in 2040 bringing its total population to 1,038,122. The Chattanooga area is projected to experience a 13% increase in 2040, bringing the total population 474,768. On the other hand, the Memphis area is projected to experience a 3.4% decrease in population, lowering its 2040 population to 986, 741.

Methodology

The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research developed its population estimates using a cohort component model. Projections were conducted at the county level for each combination of race, sex and age, using internal data well as from the United States Census Bureau and the Tennessee Department of Health.

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In order to determine individual areas’ population by race, sex and age for each year, information about birth rates, deathr rates and net migration was factored.

To learn more about the methodology, visit tnsdc.utk.edu.

Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana



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Tennessee drops series to Ole Miss with game two loss

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Tennessee drops series to Ole Miss with game two loss


KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WVLT) – The Tennessee Volunteers baseball team dropped game two to Ole Miss on Saturday afternoon, 8-1. The Rebels clinch the series, the first time Ole Miss has won a series in Knoxville since 2016.

A bright spot for the Vols was Tegan Kuhns who threw 5.2 innings not allowing a run, striking out 10 batters on five hits.

Cam Appenzeller picked up his first loss of the season coming in out of the bullpen for Kuhns. The SEC Freshman of the Week did not have a great outing. Appenzeller went 2.1 innings giving up six earned runs.

Tennessee escaped a shutout as Trent Grindlinger hit a solo home run in the ninth inning. Grindlinger’s home run was one of Tennessee’s two hits on the night.

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The Volunteers look to avoid the series sweep as theY round out the series with Ole Miss on Sunday at Lindsey Nelson Stadium. First pitch is set for 1 p.m. on the SEC Network+.

Copyright 2026 WVLT. All rights reserved.



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Tennessee-Ole Miss baseball time change for Game 2

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Tennessee-Ole Miss baseball time change for Game 2


Tennessee (25-13, 7-9 SEC) will continue a three-game home baseball series on Saturday. The Vols will host No. 23 Ole Miss (28-11, 9-7 SEC) at Lindsey Nelson Stadium. Rankings reflect the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

Ole Miss won Game 1 on Friday, 7-4.

Saturday’s Game 2 was scheduled for 6 p.m. EDT. Due to possible inclement weather on Saturday, first pitch for Game 2 will take place at 4 p.m. EDT.

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“Due to the chance of inclement weather tomorrow night, tomorrow’s game versus Ole Miss will now start at 4 p.m. EDT,” Tennessee announced on Friday.

Below is how to watch information for Saturday’s Tennessee-Ole Miss Game 2.

What channel is Tennessee versus Ole Miss baseball on?

  • TV channel: SEC Network+
  • Livestream: Watch live on SECN+
  • Announcers: Myan Patel (play-by-play) and Cody Hawn (analyst)

Watch Tennessee baseball live

We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. USA TODAY Network newsrooms operate independently, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.

Follow Vols Wire on Facebook and X (formerly Twitter).



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Everything Tennessee HC Josh Elander Said Following Series-Opening Loss At Ole Miss | Rocky Top Insider

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Everything Tennessee HC Josh Elander Said Following Series-Opening Loss At Ole Miss | Rocky Top Insider


Photo By Kate Luffman/Tennessee Athletics

Tennessee baseball dropped its series opener against Ole Miss, 7-4, on Friday night at Lindsey Nelson Stadium. The Vols bats were quiet and could not find enough to overcome a mid game deficit.

Following the game, Tennessee head coach Josh Elander discussed Landon Mack’s start, young bullpen arms impressing and much more. Here’s everything Elander said.

More From RTI: Tennessee Baseball Moves Up First Pitch Time For Saturday Game Against Ole Miss

On what went sideways for Landon Mack

“I just thought some of the big fellas didn’t miss some pitches. Those balls were both really touched. The one that was hit to right center, and I think it was Mr. Utermark after the fact. And had them kind of in between early but they landed on a few right there. Again, competing over the white, we’ll take it. But they were able to scatter some hits around it. You have some free passes here and there that we don’t need to give up. And just credit to Mississippi’s hitters because they landed on those pretty good.”

On what Ole Miss starter Hunter Elliott did well

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“Just being a crafty vet. I mean, he was throwing some change ups. His slider-cutter was kind of blending tonight. Sometimes it had 11 inches horizontal, sometimes eight. Three almost backing up a little bit. But that’s a guy that knows how to pitch in this league. There’s a reason he throws on Friday night for that club, and we had two chances to get him. We punch out one time and hit into a double play the other. And I’ve always told the offense, these guys know on Friday night, you usually have one chance to get that guy, and if you don’t get him, you’re going to be in trouble (and) playing from behind the whole time. But credit to him. He did a good job of getting all the way through six, but then good job by our crew to kind of punch back and get (Walker) Hooks in the game. It’s a guy they have a lot of confidence in, and they’re going to have to bring him back at some point. So that was the one positive down there late.”

On young bullpen arms throwing well

“It was really good. I mean, I’ve continued to challenge those guys. We want to be able to kind of mix and match and have some options there. I thought Abraham did a really good job against the middle of the meat of the order. And then Chandler Day, just to see him pitch with emotion. And it was really cool. I mean, those three come in and punch out three guys. It was really, really good with the different look that he brings. And then Will Haas, I was really excited about. 93 (mph) and really running that heater. Completely different look from Chandler Day. So he’s a guy that I said on the radio a minute ago— we didn’t ever know if he was going to show up as well as he was thrown down the stretch (of his high school career). Gets hurt and ends up making it to campus, but he seems to continue to get better and better as he gets further away from being cleared. And that is definitely a big positive from the end of tonight, is having those two lefties, how they threw the ball.”

On Tennessee sophomore Jay Abernathy going 2-for-4 with a home run, two RBIs and two runs scored

 “Just playing baseball, and then we talked to him, he’s got to keep that ball in front. He knows that. Makes a good play on the backhand early in the game, but does a good job of beating a cutter to the spot and driving it out of the yard. He’s just an easy guy to bet on. Good makeup, and it’s nice to see him having some success, because stuck with him for a while, because we expect him to be able to have success in this league, and I know he believes that, too. So we need him to continue to string some things together because if he can play good defense, keep it in front on the dirt, and then in the outfield, he’s dynamic out there in centerfield, too.”

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On where Tennessee third baseman Henry Ford is physically after dealing with an illness for several weeks, if he’s still hampered by it

“I think so. It was a grind. His toughness was really cool to see, how he grinded through that. A lot of guys would have taken some time off, and he continues to work incredibly hard on defense. He’s come a long way, really, with Coach (Ross) Kivett and what those two have done together, but it seems like right now, a little bit of being in between (at the plate). There’s some sliders, he’s running out of bat, but again, he’s a guy that we expect — we’re going to leave him right there and let him do his deal, and he can change the game in one swing. And hey, two for four tonight. Would like to have maybe a little bit better at-bat late, but he’s a guy that, he’s a winner, and I’m glad he’s a Tennessee Vol.”

On if he anticipates using injured Tennessee catcher Stone Lawless (facial fractures) either of the next two days

“We’ll see. You know, the last box I wanted to get checked tonight was to actually catch live pitching. We were able to get him some live ABs yesterday. He got completely cleared by the doctors. Arm feels good, body feels good, so I’ll talk with the staff, and we’ll look at some matchup stuff for tomorrow. But yeah, he’s a guy that just the way he receives the baseball, whether it be framing runs above average or whatnot, he makes an impact on the game just by how he catches the baseball. So we’ll look at that, but we just want to make sure we put him in a good spot to have success. And anytime you have any kind of orbital deal or whatnot, I just want to be careful with it.”

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