Finance
Exploring Three Scenarios For How Gen AI Will Change Consumer Finance
Could consumer-facing tech behemoths (such as Alphabet, Apple or Meta) disintermediate financial … [+]
The rise of generative AI has led to much hand-wringing and discussion about the potential for the technology to disrupt industries and eliminate broad swathes of human jobs. But the impact of the technology will vary from industry to industry, so it’s important to look beyond the high-level talk around disruption and to think through exactly how it will change the financial services sector.
In the case of financial services, the impact of generative AI can be simplified into three possible future scenarios: 1) non-financial tech firms develop a dominant generative AI-based personal assistant and disintermediate financial firms, 2) no disintermediation, but the technology further entrenches the dominance of the largest global banks, and 3) no firms manage to establish dominant generative AI assistants, and the technology becomes commonplace without drastically altering market share.
While we can’t predict the future, it’s essential that financial services organizations think through the three possible outcomes to develop long-term plans for how their business would react to each of these scenarios.
Before diving into this topic, a caveat. The goal of this article is to to make the subject approachable for someone who is not familiar with the nuances of generative AI. This article will not discuss the technical developments that would drive these outcomes – e.g., whether it becomes cheaper and easier to build a proprietary large language model (LLM). This article will guide non-technical individuals through how generative AI will impact the financial services industry.
Scenario one: non-financial tech player(s) take a dominant position
One possible outcome for generative AI technology is that the consumer-facing tech behemoths (such as Alphabet, Apple or Meta) and/or a breakthrough tech startup develop consumers’ go-to personal assistant for a very wide range of life tasks, including personal finance. Consumer behavior changes, and the average person looks to the leading generative AI-based virtual assistant(s) with dominant market share to help them with questions and concerns.
This outcome sees generative AI technology evolve in such a way that tech firms are able to develop a superior personal assistant that is so advanced it incentivizes consumers to almost exclusively use their personal assistant. This assistant would monitor consumers’ affairs (via linked outside accounts) and would provide advice when asked questions like “how can I improve my financial situation?” or “could my savings be earning more?” This development would disintermediate financial services firms and the assistant would be able to influence consumers’ financial decisions and behaviors.
An advanced AI-based general personal assistant with dominant market share would disintermediate … [+]
If this scenario becomes reality, the response of financial services firms to this disintermediation partly depends on how regulation shakes out and whether AI assistants can earn referral fees. Beyond the referral question, in the long-term this outcome would likely make the financial services industry much more cutthroat.
In this scenario, financial services firms would need to become far more innovative and would need to develop compelling and unique products and services. Financial services firms would need to incentivize clients to actually log into their website and app and not just rely on their personal assistant. A generic product lineup and a generic client experience would gradually lose market share in a world driven by tech firms’ high-performing virtual assistants.
According to Remco Janssen, Founder and CEO of European tech news media company Silicon Canals, “in past tech hype cycles, the established tech giants were often slow to react. When it comes to generative AI technology, however, the largest firms have acted quickly. Tech behemoths like Apple, Google and Amazon
Amazon
Scenario two: the largest financial firms use gen AI to further entrench their dominance
In this scenario, generative AI technology develops in such a way that tech companies do not disintermediate financial services firms, but the costs and complexity of advanced AI technology allows the largest global banks to gain a competitive edge over relatively smaller rivals in the industry. For an example of the gulf between the top financial services firms and the next tier of financial institutions, as of May 10th, the market capitalization of JPMorgan Chase ($570.80 billion) and Bank of America ($300.69 billion) both exceed the combined market capitalization of US Bancorp, PNC, Capital One and Truist. The combined market capitalization of those four institutions is “only” approximately $235 billion.
The largest banks can dedicate far more resources generative AI. The CEOs of Wells Fargo, Bank of … [+]
It may turn out that the largest financial firms–those which can afford expensive engineering talent and cloud computing resources–can develop meaningfully more powerful generative AI-based financial assistants than the average financial services firm and the industry’s third-party vendors. If the largest global banks can offer a superior generative AI-based financial assistant, they will use this offering to further entrench their dominance of the industry and to win market share from relatively smaller firms.
Scenario three: no dominant gen AI assistants emerge
The final scenario sees generative AI technology become somewhat of a commodity and no firm develops a meaningfully superior generative AI assistant. Generative AI-based assistants become a standard feature of financial services websites and apps without fundamentally disrupting the industry and changing market share dynamics. Financial services firms may even end up relying on multiple third-party generative models simultaneously, calling upon different models depending on the user’s needs.
In this scenario, financial services firms would need to be thoughtful about how they optimize their generative AI assistant to minimize costs and maximize revenue. Financial services firms would work to continually improve their generative AI’s ability to handle customer service questions (preventing more expensive queries to the customer service call center) and to drive desirable actions (e.g., establishing direct deposit, opening a new account, etc.). While this third scenario presents less of a threat to the average financial services firm, developing a high-quality generative AI assistant still represents a large and complex undertaking.
If no dominant generative AI assistants emerge, firms would look outperform peers via superior user … [+]
According to Dr Andreas Rung, CEO and Founder of Ergomania, “banks and financial institutions have a tendency to keep big tech initiatives in the experimental/ideation phase for too long. Time is of the essence when it comes to generative AI. Your organization needs to move quickly to deploy a generative AI assistant to your customer base. In order to keep pace with the competition, your generative AI assistant must also become a seamless part of the UX and customer experience.”
Gen AI has the potential to upend financial services, and firms must start planning for future scenarios now
Only time will tell how generative AI technology develops and which of these three scenarios becomes reality. But your organization should start to think through these outcomes and how to react in each situation. Could your organization restructure and make a massive investment in developing a cutting-edge generative AI assistant if that becomes necessary? If your firm uses a third-party AI vendor, what are the “switching costs” if your firm “backs the wrong horse” and must make a change in order to keep pace with the leading firms? In each of these scenarios, how would your firm adjust the human workforce? It is better to start planning now than to be reactive and scrambling to catch up to changing market dynamics.
According to Milan De Reede, Founder and CEO of Nano GPT, “I see our customers’ preferences shift in real time as new generative AI models and updates are released. There’s no clear “winner” as of May 2024. Our customers seem to prefer different generative AI models for different tasks. At some point in the future, your firm may need to change your generative AI infrastructure and approach relatively quickly depending on which of these three scenarios becomes reality.”
Finance
Bluespring adds $2.3bn in assets with SHP Financial purchase
Bluespring Wealth Partners has purchased SHP Financial, a firm based in Massachusetts that manages about $2.3bn in assets for mass-affluent and high-net-worth clients.
Financial specifics of the deal remain undisclosed.
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SHP Financial was established in 2003 by Derek L. Gregoire, Matthew C. Peck, and Keith W. Ellis Jr., who began their financial careers together in the insurance sector.
The company employs around 50 staff across three offices in Plymouth, Woburn, and Hyannis. Its team includes seven advisers and 18 other financial services professionals.
The firm is known for providing fiduciary advice and offers services such as its SHP Retirement Road Map, aimed at making retirement planning more accessible to clients.
Peck said: “We are deeply protective of the culture we’ve built over the last two decades and were intentional about choosing a partner we felt could help us fuel SHP’s next stage of growth while helping us remain true to our goals.
“And we found that partner in Bluespring. We believe Bluespring can provide the resources and support needed to grow and invest in our team, while preserving the client experience that defines SHP.”
In 2025, Bluespring added over $6bn in assets under management to its business.
Bluespring president Pradeep Jayaraman commented: “SHP is a team that has already built meaningful scale and is still hungry to grow. That’s what makes this an acceleration story, as opposed to a transition story.
“SHP’s founders are seasoned leaders in the prime of their careers, still deeply engaged in their business, with decades of success yet ahead.
Last month, Bluespring added Coghill Investment Strategies, managing around $600m in assets, to its network.
Finance
Oregon Democrats’ campaign finance proposal would establish spending limits, push back other provisions
The Oregon State Capitol in Salem, Ore. on Monday, Feb 2, 2026.
Saskia Hatvany / OPB
State leaders are trying to stand up a law to massively overhaul Oregon’s campaign finance system.
Now, two years after the original bill’s passage, a new proposal would limit political contributions before the next general election as planned, but give the Secretary of State more time to launch a required system to track spending.
An amended bill, unveiled Monday evening, is shining a spotlight on the divide between the politically powerful labor and business groups who support it and good government advocates who are accusing state leaders of trying to skirt the intent of the original legislation.
House Bill 4018, which saw its first public hearing Tuesday morning, comes as state officials seek to prop up the campaign finance bill passed in 2024. Since then, state leaders have been jockeying over how best to quickly set up the bill for Oregon’s elections. For years, the state has not capped political giving.
State elections officials have warned repeatedly that the legislation from 2024 was flawed and that Oregon was barreling toward a failed implementation. The Oregon Secretary of State says it needs far more money — potentially $25 million — to keep things on schedule.
In addition to a dizzying array of technical changes, the new bill gives the state more time to create an online system to better monitor and track political spending and giving. It would move the start date from 2028 to 2032.
The bill maintains the original plan of capping political donations by businesses, political committees, interest groups, labor unions and other citizens by 2027.
“If our goal is to strengthen trust in democracy, we cannot afford a rollout that undermines confidence in government’s ability to deliver,” Oregon Secretary of State Tobias Read said in testimony supporting the bill on Tuesday.
“Oregonians deserve campaign finance reform that works, not just on paper, but in practice,” said Read. “They deserve a system that ends unlimited contributions. HB 4018 is a step closer to achieving that goal by preserving the key contribution limits promised to Oregonians while providing a realistic runway for the state to resolve the more complex reporting and transparency issues.”
Rep. Julie Fahey (D-Eugene), right, and Rep. Lucetta (R-McMinnville) attend a legislative preview for the press on Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026 in Salem, Ore.
Saskia Hatvany / OPB
House Speaker Julie Fahey, who proposed the bill, believes it “addresses the most urgent needs of our campaign finance system,” a spokesperson for the Lane County Democrat said. For the tracking system, the bill “will give the Secretary of State the time needed to build it carefully, test it thoroughly, and roll it out without risking problems in the middle of a major election.”
The bill has the backing of labor groups such as the Oregon Nurses Association, Oregon AFSCME, Oregon AFL-CIO and the Oregon Restaurant & Lodging Association. Republican leaders have yet to chime in.
“Oregon is fighting hard for a transparent, robust, and intact democracy against a challenging national landscape from federal threats and corporate power. Fair elections are the foundation of this,” said Harper Haverkamp, of the American Federation of Teachers — Oregon. “The upcoming rollout of recently passed campaign finance reforms is something for us to look forward to — but the rollout must be done right.”
Campaign finance advocates offered a withering view of the proposal on Tuesday, saying they were excluded from discussions around crafting the bill and calling on lawmakers to reject the bill. In written testimony, one of them urged lawmakers to “Stop kicking the can down the road.”
The bill “massively changes [the 2024 bill] to come very close to making the contribution limits and disclosure requirements illusory,” Dan Meek, a Portland attorney and campaign finance reform advocate, said in Tuesday’s public hearing.
Among other things, he added, the bill would delay disclosure requirements by three years. It would also only restrict a group’s contribution to a campaign if the Secretary of State’s office determined that a single person had created them with the intent of evading limits, “which will be very difficult to prove,” he noted.
“This is another stealth attempt by legislative leadership and the big campaign contributors to do an end run around on campaign finance reform, before it’s set to be implemented,” Kate Titus, the executive director of Common Cause Oregon, said in a statement to OPB Tuesday.
The bill is scheduled for another public hearing on Thursday.
Finance
Finance Chiefs Struggling to Deliver in Face of Growing Pressure to Embrace AI
Latest research from Basware shows majority are investing in technology, but ROI remains elusive
CHARLOTTE, N.C., Feb. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Calls from boards of directors and executive leadership to “do something with AI” are growing louder, and finance is struggling to answer them. According to a new report from Basware, a global leader in Invoice Lifecycle Management, nearly half of CFOs say they feel increased pressure from company leadership to implement AI across their operations. And while many are investing in agentic AI in response, a majority admit they are largely experimenting with the technology and flying blind when it comes to putting it into practice and delivering ROI.
As revealed in AI to ROI: Unlocking Value with AI Agents report, a global survey conducted by FT Longitude with support from Basware, six in ten (61%) of 200 finance leaders across the US, UK, France and Germany polled say their organization rolled out custom-developed AI agents largely as an experiment, simply to see what the technology could do. And one in four admit they still don’t fully understand what an AI agent looks like in practice.
It’s a vexing problem, and as they look to the year ahead, CFOs need to focus on solving it.
The Rise of Agentic AI
Two-thirds (66%) of respondents to the Basware survey say there is more hype around agentic AI than any previous technology shift, yet three-quarters are still figuring out the best way to leverage it. And the C-Suite is losing patience.
“We’ve reached a tipping point where boards and CEOs are done with AI experiments and expecting real results,” said Jason Kurtz, CEO, Basware.
And as the Basware research makes clear, agentic AI is the key to delivering them. While overall AI return on investment (ROI) rose from 35% to 67% in the last year, survey data shows agentic AI far – and companies using third-party solutions already embedded with AI agents – outperformed all categories with an average ROI of 80%.
Scoring Easy Wins
“Finance teams that focus on areas where AI can have immediate impact, such as automating accounts payable, improving compliance, reducing errors, and detecting fraud, can deliver these results,” Kurtz adds.
Respondents to the Basware survey confirm this, with 72% saying they see accounts payable (AP)—often the most manual and data-heavy part of the finance function—as the most obvious starting point for agentic AI. And it’s an area where Basware can deliver quick wins. At the end of the day, AP is a data problem. and Basware is solving it with AI. Over the last 40 years, the company has built the industry’s largest set of structured, high-quality AP data and processed more than two billion invoices. And it’s applying AI to this data to train its AI agents and deliver context-aware predictions, enabling finance teams to spend less time analyzing and more time deciding and acting. Other areas where they will likely deploy agentic AI:
- Automating invoice capture and data entry (30%)
- Cash flow management (24%)
- Scenario modeling and forecasting (23%)
- Lower operating costs (21%)
- Running real-time risk and market analysis (20%)
- Automating financial reporting and reconciliations (20%)
- Streamlining compliance checks and regulatory filings (19%)
- Detecting duplicate invoices or potential fraud (19%)
- Reducing overpayments or duplicate payments (18%)
Build Vs Buy
Organizations that leverage intelligent platforms like Basware’s Invoice Lifecycle Management that are embedded with agentic AI and uniquely designed to drive these processes can deliver the results they’re leadership is expecting with greater speed and cost efficiency than cobbling together point solutions or attempting to build their own.
Take InvoiceAI, a solution delivered on the platform that intelligently and securely applies generative and agentic AI, natural language processing and deep learning across the entire invoice lifecycle. Leveraging embedded AI Agents, the solution goes beyond simple automation to autonomously processes invoices and deliver game-changing improvements in speed, accuracy and compliance.
From Hype to Reality – and ROI
But achieving these results requires clear strategies and governance to drive them.
According to the Basware survey, nearly three quarters (71%) of finance teams seeing the weakest returns from AI reported acting under pressure and without direction, compared to 13% of teams achieving strong ROI.
“Our research confirms what we see every day: AI for AI’s sake is a waste,” Kurtz said. “Agentic AI can deliver transformational results, but only when it is deployed with purpose and discipline. And that means embedding AI directly into finance workflows, grounding agents in trusted data, and governing them like digital employees. This is how AI moves from innovation to impact. And this is what Basware delivers for our customers.”
To learn more about Basware’s Invoice Lifecycle Management platform and the value it is delivering to enterprises around the globe, click here.
About Basware
Basware is how the world’s best finance teams gain complete control of every invoice, every time. Our Intelligent Invoice Lifecycle Management Platform ensures end-to-end efficiency, compliance and control for all invoice transactions. Powered by the world’s most sophisticated invoice-centric AI – trained on over 2 billion invoices – Basware’s Intelligent Automation drives real ROI by transforming finance operations. We serve 6,500+ customers globally and are trusted by industry leaders including DHL, Heineken and Sony. Fueled by 40 years of specialized expertise with $10+ trillion in total spend handled, we are pioneering the next era of finance. With Basware, now it all just happens.
Photo: https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/2889805/Basware_x_FT_Longitude_Agentic_AI_Report.jpg
Logo: https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/2398888/Basware_logo.jpg
SOURCE Basware
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