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In California, It’s 72 With a Chance of “Weather Whiplash” | Connecting California

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In California, It’s 72 With a Chance of “Weather Whiplash” | Connecting California


Why is it so hard to make seasonal weather predictions in California—and what’s the path to more accurate forecasts? Columnist Joe Mathews asks in the latest Connecting California. Satellite image courtesy of NOAA Photo Library/Flickr (CC BY 2.0 DEED).

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California weather is harder to predict than it looks. Even Harris K. Telemacher came to learn that.

Telemacher was a Los Angeles TV weathercaster with an ocean of knowledge—he had a PhD in arts and humanities and quoted Shakespeare—but no real meteorological training. So, he assumed that California weather was predictable and decided to tape his televised forecasts weeks in advance, always promising sunny and warm days. This worked until an unexpected Pacific storm deluged the Southland during one of his pre-recorded forecasts.

Telemacher was a fictional character invented and inhabited by Steve Martin in the classic satire L.A. Story. But he embodied a real-life cliché that needs retiring.

California weather has never been as predictable as a Steve Martin gag—especially when it comes to the rain and snow of Golden State winters like this one.

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In fact, no state in the lower 48 sees as much variability in its year-to-year precipitation as California. Such variability makes our weather at least as unpredictable as anything else in this volatile state. Last year, California was in the midst of the driest three-year run in recorded history when NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, published a seasonal forecast for a drier-than-average winter. Instead, we experienced one of our wettest winters ever.

Now, another winter of weather surprises has arrived, demonstrating that California desperately needs better seasonal forecasts so we can plan and protect ourselves in this era of climate change.

Seasonal forecasts are not the predictions of tomorrow’s weather that you see delivered on your TV by Telemacher and his present-day imitators. Seasonal forecasts provide a range of possible weather and climate changes for the next season on the calendar, usually about a month or so in advance. (Federal agency forecasts for winter are usually out by Halloween.) Meteorologists will tell you that while it’s impossible to tell you the weather on a particular day months in advance, they should be able to predict, broadly, how wet or dry the next season should be.

But that’s always been hard to do in California. Lately, it’s become even harder because of the state’s “weather whiplash”—the term that the Public Policy Institute of California has used in recent years to describe the seesawing we’ve seen between flood and drought.

Our current inability to predict seasonal wet conditions makes it harder to manage water supplies (we need to store more in wet winters to prepare for drier years), prepare for disasters (including unpredictable floods, like the one that recently inundated San Diego), and do long-term economic planning for agriculture, which supplies food to the entire nation.

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Another winter of weather surprises has arrived, demonstrating that California desperately needs better seasonal forecasts so we can plan and protect ourselves in this era of climate change.

It’s not just winter weather that’s hard to foresee. Predicting scorching heat, as the state’s daily average maximum temperature rises by more than 4 degrees, is difficult. Impactful heat waves, called Heat Health Events, are expected to increase in frequency and duration, especially in the Central Valley and Sierra. Calling those ahead of time could be a matter of life and death.

But improving seasonal forecasts is easier said than done. Even the most advanced meteorologists have struggled with making seasonal forecasts. Indeed, recent studies, now getting attention in California policy circles, suggest that our state and its meteorologists need a better understanding of the peculiarities of the Pacific Ocean to improve their forecasts.

Making expectations about how much rain or snow is likely to fall in California depends on predicting atmospheric patterns over the northern Pacific Ocean. To do so, meteorologists have tended to look at sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific and the phenomena known as El Niño and La Ninã. Warm temperatures, or “El Niño” conditions, were believed to herald rain. Cool “La Niña” conditions were thought to signal a dry winter.

But a recent paper highlighted by PPIC, with authors from UCLA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, found that El Niño conditions don’t explain most of the variability of our weather. To cite one example, tropical sea surface temperatures and conditions were very similar in 2021–22 and 2022–23, but the first winter was dry and the second was one of the wettest in history.

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“It remains elusive how predictable the year-to-year variability of CA winter precipitation is and why it is challenging to achieve skillful seasonal prediction of CA precipitation,” the paper said.

According to its authors, to arrive at more accurate seasonal forecasts, scientists need a better understanding of the ocean’s “circulation anomalies,” which are deviations in averages and expected conditions independent of El Niño. Current climate models, the paper argued, “show nearly no skill in predicting these,” which means that they have “limited predictive skill for California winter precipitation.”

The paper also argued that current climate models can’t predict patterns that stem from tropical convection (i.e. tropical clouds and thunderstorms) or the stratospheric polar vortex. This means that for better seasonal forecasts, meteorologists need a better understanding of conditions and patterns not only in the relatively nearby western Pacific but also in waters as far away as the Indian and Arctic oceans.

How do we achieve this?

One answer is to devote more time and resources to observing oceans, sea ice, and clouds—and their impacts on precipitation. Another answer is to employ better computer capacity and artificial intelligence to build better climate models. This is a planetary problem—if you want better predictions of California precipitation, you need to improve modeling and data for the climate of the whole earth.

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But such improvements won’t happen fast. So, for at least a few more winters, we’re stuck with unreliable seasonal forecasts and unpredictable weather.



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California tech leaders challenge progressive policies as billionaires, businesses flee: report

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California tech leaders challenge progressive policies as billionaires, businesses flee: report


A group of tech industry leaders and self-described “radical centrists” are vowing to push back on left-leaning policies in California that are causing an exodus among wealthy entrepreneurs and businesses from the Golden State.

The New York Post reported that the group held an event attended by about 350 people in Mountain View, California, that featured elected officials, including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins, tech industry leaders and hundreds of attendees who want to challenge the progressive tilt of the state’s policies.

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The meeting comes as several prominent wealthy entrepreneurs have left California to avoid a proposed 5% one-time wealth tax on billionaires who were California residents at the start of this year, with the tax due next year. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Oracle founder Larry Ellison and PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel are among those who have moved assets or relocated from California. 

Business leaders who are spearheading the group urged those in attendance not to give up on California by leaving and instead push back on left-leaning policies by electing more moderate politicians.

CHEVRON WARNS NEWSOM’S ‘ADVERSARIAL’ ENERGY AGENDA WILL CRIPPLE CALIFORNIA ECONOMY, SEND GAS PRICES SOARING

Y Combinator CEO and founder Garry Tan launched “Garry’s List” to educate voters about California politics. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“Some people have decided to leave our state as some kind of heroic thing. Like, ‘I’m going to Florida,’” Ripple Chairman Chris Larsen said at the event, according to the Post’s report. “That is not brave. That’s surrender. So, let’s get involved. Let’s take back our state.”

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Larsen said the group needs to “fight on par with the unions when they’re proposing stupid job-killing ideas like the San Francisco CEO tax.” 

He also called out Democratic politicians who are competing to become the party’s nominee for California governor, including former Democratic presidential primary candidate Tom Steyer, Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter for supporting the union-backed CEO tax.

O’LEARY BLASTS CALIFORNIA WEALTH TAX AS ‘BAD MANAGEMENT,’ CALLS ON RESIDENTS TO ‘HIRE’ NEW LEADERS

Policies such as the San Francisco CEO tax and a proposed wealth tax targeting billionaires have sparked pushback from California centrists. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

He said it’s “really disappointing,” and it reflects the pressure that labor unions have put on the state’s elected officials. Larsen added that while the group isn’t anti-union, it aims to balance labor’s ability to influence elected officials.

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Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan hosted the event after he launched “Garry’s List” last month to serve as a “citizen’s union” to support centrist candidates in California who are supportive of policies to improve the state’s schools and addressing issues related to housing and public safety.

Tan criticized Steyer, saying he’s attempting to “buy the governor’s mansion to raise your taxes,” and praised Mahan as the “next governor of California.”

TOP DEMS SANDERS AND REICH RAMP UP BILLIONAIRE TAX PUSH, SAY WEALTHY HAVE ‘ADDICTION’ TO GREED

The hotly contested Democratic primary to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom will be a flashpoint for the brewing battle between centrists and progressives. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

The Post’s report noted that Garry’s List is focusing on voter education efforts through a blog Tan writes with the assistance of AI. Tan launched the site criticizing anti-growth policies, wealth taxes and a strike by San Francisco teachers.

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Garry’s List is one of several groups that have been formed in an effort to stem the leftward lurch of California’s politics.

A group called Grow California was created by Larsen and Tim Draper, which will spend about $40 million to support “pragmatic” candidates focused on addressing issues like the cost of living.

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Another group called Building a Better California was launched by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, venture capitalist Michael Moritz and other tech leaders. It has raised over $45 million to help advance initiatives to reform tax policy and spur development.



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Northern California’s House of Clocks has stood the test of time for 55 years

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Northern California’s House of Clocks has stood the test of time for 55 years


While we may lose an hour of sleep this coming weekend, one clock store in California is gearing up for one of its busiest times of the year: daylight savings.

It’s the House of Clocks, the largest clock company in Northern California, which was recently celebrating 55 years of business.

It’s a place frozen in time. Just visit the store’s 240-year-old grandfather clock. It’s got plenty of stories to tell, dating back to 1780.

“This is the oldest piece we have right now,” clocksmith Joey Hohn said.

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The House of Clocks is on the outskirts of Downtown Lodi in San Joaquin County.

“We have new, we have vintage, we have antique,” co-owner Sandy Hohn shared. “Honestly, it feels like not a day goes by that we don’t get a phone call or an email of somebody wanting to sell something for 100 different reasons.”

The clock store has been with the Hohn family for three generations. It’s all thanks to one family heirloom.

“When the first war started, [my grandparents] left everything and had to move,” Joey Hohn explained. “After the Second World War, my grandpa was stationed in Germany. They went back to the house that had been abandoned and the neighbor who they left the property to said, ‘As far as I’m concerned, everything in the house is still yours.’ They went back and got this, so this is my great-great-grandparents’ clock.”

You can find just about anything in the House of Clocks, from old grandfather clocks to clocks that can fit in the palm of your hand.

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What you can’t find anywhere else is the Hohns’ love for Lodi.

“We’ve made so many friends over the years out of customers,” Sandy Hohn said. “Friends that are just wonderful, that love collecting, and we keep them repaired for their families, which is awesome. They have sentimental value that’s passed down.”

That same love for the city and their community runs in the family.

“We had a customer that wanted to repaint their dial,” Joey Hohn explained. “We told them no because it was her father’s who had passed away. Every time he went to wind the clock, he placed his thumb in the same spot. When we told her that smudge there on the dial was her father, she said, ‘Back away, don’t you dare.’ It was just a good memory we have.”

While you can’t turn back time, what we can do is keep memories alive and treasure the present moment.

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“There’s so many personalities,” Sandy Hohn said. “We just try to find a good home for them.”



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Signs of spring blooming at Antelope Valley California Poppy Reserve after wet, warm winter

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Signs of spring blooming at Antelope Valley California Poppy Reserve after wet, warm winter


It’s beginning to look a lot like spring!

The warm and wet weather this winter has led to the start of a dazzling super bloom at the Antelope Valley California Poppy Reserve.

“We had an unseasonably warm winter as well, so there’s actually a lot of growth,” said Callista Turney with California State Parks. “We’re having early wildflowers that are already at the park. So if you look at the poppy live cam, it shows a lot of orange already.”

The rain has helped the early blooms, but it’s actually the heat that accelerated the growth of the flowers.

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“It will actually speed up the growth of the plants, so some of them were already blooming and that’s going to cause those blossoms to accelerate faster towards seed production. And the blossoms that are in the process of being formed, those are going to open up soon as well.”

We also sometimes see great super blooms in Death Valley National Park, Anza-Borrego Desert State Park, Joshua Tree and the Mojave National Preserve.

“It’s definitely a rare occurrence because we don’t always have the right conditions. It’s gotta be the weather, the wind, the rain, all coming together,” said Katie Tilford, Director of Development and Communications with the Theodore Payne Foundation.

If it continues to stay unseasonably warm, we’ll see a shorter bloom. The key to a longer season is milder weather.


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