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In California, It’s 72 With a Chance of “Weather Whiplash” | Connecting California

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In California, It’s 72 With a Chance of “Weather Whiplash” | Connecting California


Why is it so hard to make seasonal weather predictions in California—and what’s the path to more accurate forecasts? Columnist Joe Mathews asks in the latest Connecting California. Satellite image courtesy of NOAA Photo Library/Flickr (CC BY 2.0 DEED).

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California weather is harder to predict than it looks. Even Harris K. Telemacher came to learn that.

Telemacher was a Los Angeles TV weathercaster with an ocean of knowledge—he had a PhD in arts and humanities and quoted Shakespeare—but no real meteorological training. So, he assumed that California weather was predictable and decided to tape his televised forecasts weeks in advance, always promising sunny and warm days. This worked until an unexpected Pacific storm deluged the Southland during one of his pre-recorded forecasts.

Telemacher was a fictional character invented and inhabited by Steve Martin in the classic satire L.A. Story. But he embodied a real-life cliché that needs retiring.

California weather has never been as predictable as a Steve Martin gag—especially when it comes to the rain and snow of Golden State winters like this one.

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In fact, no state in the lower 48 sees as much variability in its year-to-year precipitation as California. Such variability makes our weather at least as unpredictable as anything else in this volatile state. Last year, California was in the midst of the driest three-year run in recorded history when NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, published a seasonal forecast for a drier-than-average winter. Instead, we experienced one of our wettest winters ever.

Now, another winter of weather surprises has arrived, demonstrating that California desperately needs better seasonal forecasts so we can plan and protect ourselves in this era of climate change.

Seasonal forecasts are not the predictions of tomorrow’s weather that you see delivered on your TV by Telemacher and his present-day imitators. Seasonal forecasts provide a range of possible weather and climate changes for the next season on the calendar, usually about a month or so in advance. (Federal agency forecasts for winter are usually out by Halloween.) Meteorologists will tell you that while it’s impossible to tell you the weather on a particular day months in advance, they should be able to predict, broadly, how wet or dry the next season should be.

But that’s always been hard to do in California. Lately, it’s become even harder because of the state’s “weather whiplash”—the term that the Public Policy Institute of California has used in recent years to describe the seesawing we’ve seen between flood and drought.

Our current inability to predict seasonal wet conditions makes it harder to manage water supplies (we need to store more in wet winters to prepare for drier years), prepare for disasters (including unpredictable floods, like the one that recently inundated San Diego), and do long-term economic planning for agriculture, which supplies food to the entire nation.

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Another winter of weather surprises has arrived, demonstrating that California desperately needs better seasonal forecasts so we can plan and protect ourselves in this era of climate change.

It’s not just winter weather that’s hard to foresee. Predicting scorching heat, as the state’s daily average maximum temperature rises by more than 4 degrees, is difficult. Impactful heat waves, called Heat Health Events, are expected to increase in frequency and duration, especially in the Central Valley and Sierra. Calling those ahead of time could be a matter of life and death.

But improving seasonal forecasts is easier said than done. Even the most advanced meteorologists have struggled with making seasonal forecasts. Indeed, recent studies, now getting attention in California policy circles, suggest that our state and its meteorologists need a better understanding of the peculiarities of the Pacific Ocean to improve their forecasts.

Making expectations about how much rain or snow is likely to fall in California depends on predicting atmospheric patterns over the northern Pacific Ocean. To do so, meteorologists have tended to look at sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific and the phenomena known as El Niño and La Ninã. Warm temperatures, or “El Niño” conditions, were believed to herald rain. Cool “La Niña” conditions were thought to signal a dry winter.

But a recent paper highlighted by PPIC, with authors from UCLA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, found that El Niño conditions don’t explain most of the variability of our weather. To cite one example, tropical sea surface temperatures and conditions were very similar in 2021–22 and 2022–23, but the first winter was dry and the second was one of the wettest in history.

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“It remains elusive how predictable the year-to-year variability of CA winter precipitation is and why it is challenging to achieve skillful seasonal prediction of CA precipitation,” the paper said.

According to its authors, to arrive at more accurate seasonal forecasts, scientists need a better understanding of the ocean’s “circulation anomalies,” which are deviations in averages and expected conditions independent of El Niño. Current climate models, the paper argued, “show nearly no skill in predicting these,” which means that they have “limited predictive skill for California winter precipitation.”

The paper also argued that current climate models can’t predict patterns that stem from tropical convection (i.e. tropical clouds and thunderstorms) or the stratospheric polar vortex. This means that for better seasonal forecasts, meteorologists need a better understanding of conditions and patterns not only in the relatively nearby western Pacific but also in waters as far away as the Indian and Arctic oceans.

How do we achieve this?

One answer is to devote more time and resources to observing oceans, sea ice, and clouds—and their impacts on precipitation. Another answer is to employ better computer capacity and artificial intelligence to build better climate models. This is a planetary problem—if you want better predictions of California precipitation, you need to improve modeling and data for the climate of the whole earth.

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But such improvements won’t happen fast. So, for at least a few more winters, we’re stuck with unreliable seasonal forecasts and unpredictable weather.



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Dramatic explosion caught on video destroys homes, injures six, officials say

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Dramatic explosion caught on video destroys homes, injures six, officials say


A natural gas line leak triggered a dramatic explosion that destroyed a Bay Area home on Thursday, injuring six people and damaging several other properties.

At least one person was inside the home before it was leveled in the blast. The individual managed to escape without injury, but six others were hurt, including three who suffered serious injuries, Alameda County Fire Department spokesperson Cheryl Hurd said.

“It was a chaotic scene,” Hurd said. “There was fire and debris and smoke everywhere, power lines down, people self-evacuated from the home. … Someone was on the sidewalk with severe burns.”

The leak started after a third-party construction crew working Thursday morning in the 800 block of East Lewelling Boulevard in Hayward struck a Pacific Gas and Electric underground natural gas line, according to a statement from the utility.

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Fire crews were first dispatched to the scene at 7:46 a.m. after PG&E reported a suspected natural gas leak, Hurd said. PG&E officials were already on scene when fire engines arrived, and reportedly told firefighters their assistance was not needed, Hurd said.

Utility workers attempted to isolate the damaged line, but gas was leaking from multiple locations. Workers shut off the flow of gas at about 9:25 a.m. About ten minutes later an explosion occurred, PG&E said in a statement.

Fire crews were called back to the same address, where at least 75 firefighters encountered heavy flames and a thick column of smoke. Surrounding homes sustained damage from the blast and falling debris. Three buildings were destroyed on two separate properties and several others were damaged, according to fire officials.

Six people were taken to Eden Medical Center, including three with severe injuries requiring immediate transport. Officials declined to comment on the nature of their injuries.

Video captured from a Ring doorbell affixed to a neighboring house showed an excavator digging near the home moments before the explosion. The blast rattled nearby homes, shattered windows and sent construction crews running.

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Initially, authorities suspected that two people were missing after the blast. That was determined not to be the case, Hurd said.

“They brought in two cadaver dogs looking to see if anyone was still trapped under the rubble, and the dogs cleared everything,” Hurd said.

Brittany Maldonado had just returned from dropping off her son at school Thursday morning when she noticed a PG&E employee checking out her gas meter. He informed her that there was an issue and they had to turn off the gas to her home.

She didn’t think twice about it.

“About 45 minutes later, everything shakes,” she told reporters at the scene. “It was a big boom…first we think someone ran into our house—a truck or something—and then we look outside and it’s like a war zone.”

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The house across the street was leveled, Maldonado said. When she watched the footage from her Ring camera she said it looked as though a bomb inside the home had gone off.

“I’m very glad that no one lost their lives,” she said.

Officials with the Sheriff’s Office, PG&E and the National Transportation Safety Board are continuing to investigate the circumstances that led to the explosion.

In 2010, a PG&E pipeline ruptured in a San Bruno neighborhood, destroying 38 homes and killing eight people. California regulators later approved a $1.6-billion fine against the utility for violating state and federal pipeline safety standards.

Staff writer Hannah Fry contributed to this report

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Neil Thwaites promoted to ‘Vice President of Global Sales & California Commercial Performance’ for Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines – Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and Horizon Air

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Neil Thwaites promoted to ‘Vice President of Global Sales & California Commercial Performance’ for Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines – Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and Horizon Air


Thwaites will lead the strategy and execution of all sales activities for the combined Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines team. His responsibilities include growing indirect revenue on Alaska’s expanding international and domestic network, as well as expanding Atmos for Business, a new program designed for small- and medium-sized companies.

Thwaites joined Alaska Airlines in January 2022 as regional vice president in California. Since stepping into the role, Thwaites has significantly sharpened the airline’s focus and scale in key markets and communities across the state, strengthening Alaska’s position as we continue to grow in California. He will continue to be based at the company’s California offices in Burlingame. The moves take effect Dec. 13, with Thwaites also continuing to lead his current California commercial planning and performance function in addition to Global Sales.

Prior to Alaska, Thwaites worked in multiple positions within the airline industry, including a decade holding roles in London, New York, and Los Angeles for British Airways (a fellow oneworld member); most recently as ‘VP, Sales – Western USA’, where he was responsible for market development strategy and indirect revenue for both British Airways and Iberia across the western U.S.

Thwaites is originally from the United Kingdom and graduated from the University of Brighton with a double honors degree in Business Administration & Law.

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Tiny tracker following monarch butterflies during California migration

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Tiny tracker following monarch butterflies during California migration


SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — When this monarch butterfly hits the sky it won’t be traveling alone. In fact, an energetic team of researchers will be following along with a revolutionary technology that’s already unlocking secrets that could help the entire species survive.

“I’ve described this technology as a spaceship compared to the wheel, like using a using a spaceship compared to the invention of the wheel. It’s teaching us so, so much more,” says Ray Moranz, Ph.D., a pollinator conservation specialist with the Xerces Society.

Moranz is part of a team that’s been placing tiny tracking devices on migrating monarchs. The collaboration is known as Project Monarch Science. It leverages solar powered radio tags that are so light they don’t affect the butterfly’s ability to fly. And they’re allowing researchers to track the Monarch’s movements in precise detail. With some 400 tags in place, the group already been able to get a nearly real time picture of monarch migrations east of the Rockies, with some populations experiencing dramatic twists and turns before making to wintering grounds in Mexico.

“They’re trying to go southward to Mexico. They can’t fight the winds. Instead, some of them were letting themselves be carried 50 miles north, 100 miles north, 200 miles the wrong way, which we are all extremely alarmed by and for good reason. Some of these monarchs, their migration was delayed by two or three weeks.

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According to estimates, migrating monarch populations have dropped by roughly 80% or more across the country. And the situation with coastal species here in California is especially dire. Blake Barbaree is a senior scientist with Point Blue Conservation Science. He and his colleagues are tracking Northern California populations now clustered around Santa Cruz.

MORE: Monarch butterflies to be listed as a threatened species in US

“This year, there’s it’s one of the lowest, populations recorded in the winter. And the core zones have been in Santa Cruz County and up in Marin County. So we’ve undertaken an effort to understand how the monarchs are really using these different groves around Santa Cruz by tagging some in the state parks around town,” Barbaree explains.

He says being able to track individual monarchs could help identify microhabitats in the area that help them survive, ranging from backyard pollinator gardens to protected open space to forest groves.

“So we’re really getting a great insight to how reliant they are on these big trees, but also the surrounding area and people’s even backyards. And then along the way around the coast, how they’re transitioning among some of these groves. And we’re looking for some of the triggers for those movements. Right. Why are they doing this and what’s what’s driving them to do that? So those questions are still a little bit further out as we get to analyze some more some more of the data,” he believes.

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And that data is getting even more precise. The tags, developed by Cellular Tracking Technologies, can be monitored from dedicated listening stations. But the company is also able to crowdsource signals detected by cellphone networks on phones with Bluetooth connectivity and location access activated. And they’ve also helped develop an app that allows volunteers, citizen scientists, and the general public to track and report Monarch locations themselves using their smartphones.

CEO Michael Lanzone says the initial response has been overwhelming.

MORE: New butterflies introduced in SF’s Presidio after species went extinct in 1940s

“We were super surprised to see 3,000 people download the monarch app. It’s like, you know, but people really love monarchs. There’s something that people just relate to,” says Lanzone who like many staffers at Cellular Tracking Technologies, has a background in wildlife ecology.

A number of groups are pushing to have the monarchs designated nationally as a threatened species. If that ultimately happens, researchers believe the tracking data could help put better protections in place.

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“They’re highly vulnerable to, you know, some of the different things that that that we as humans do around using pesticides and also potentially cutting, you know, cutting down trees for various reasons. Sometimes they’re for safety and sometimes it’s, you know, for development. But so having an understanding of how we can do those things more sensibly and protect the places that they need the most,” says Point Blue’s Barbaree.

And it’s happening with the help of researchers, citizen scientists, and a technology weighing no more than a few grains of rice.

The smartphone app is called Project Monarch Science. You can download it for free and begin tracking.

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