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In California, It’s 72 With a Chance of “Weather Whiplash” | Connecting California

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In California, It’s 72 With a Chance of “Weather Whiplash” | Connecting California


Why is it so hard to make seasonal weather predictions in California—and what’s the path to more accurate forecasts? Columnist Joe Mathews asks in the latest Connecting California. Satellite image courtesy of NOAA Photo Library/Flickr (CC BY 2.0 DEED).

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California weather is harder to predict than it looks. Even Harris K. Telemacher came to learn that.

Telemacher was a Los Angeles TV weathercaster with an ocean of knowledge—he had a PhD in arts and humanities and quoted Shakespeare—but no real meteorological training. So, he assumed that California weather was predictable and decided to tape his televised forecasts weeks in advance, always promising sunny and warm days. This worked until an unexpected Pacific storm deluged the Southland during one of his pre-recorded forecasts.

Telemacher was a fictional character invented and inhabited by Steve Martin in the classic satire L.A. Story. But he embodied a real-life cliché that needs retiring.

California weather has never been as predictable as a Steve Martin gag—especially when it comes to the rain and snow of Golden State winters like this one.

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In fact, no state in the lower 48 sees as much variability in its year-to-year precipitation as California. Such variability makes our weather at least as unpredictable as anything else in this volatile state. Last year, California was in the midst of the driest three-year run in recorded history when NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, published a seasonal forecast for a drier-than-average winter. Instead, we experienced one of our wettest winters ever.

Now, another winter of weather surprises has arrived, demonstrating that California desperately needs better seasonal forecasts so we can plan and protect ourselves in this era of climate change.

Seasonal forecasts are not the predictions of tomorrow’s weather that you see delivered on your TV by Telemacher and his present-day imitators. Seasonal forecasts provide a range of possible weather and climate changes for the next season on the calendar, usually about a month or so in advance. (Federal agency forecasts for winter are usually out by Halloween.) Meteorologists will tell you that while it’s impossible to tell you the weather on a particular day months in advance, they should be able to predict, broadly, how wet or dry the next season should be.

But that’s always been hard to do in California. Lately, it’s become even harder because of the state’s “weather whiplash”—the term that the Public Policy Institute of California has used in recent years to describe the seesawing we’ve seen between flood and drought.

Our current inability to predict seasonal wet conditions makes it harder to manage water supplies (we need to store more in wet winters to prepare for drier years), prepare for disasters (including unpredictable floods, like the one that recently inundated San Diego), and do long-term economic planning for agriculture, which supplies food to the entire nation.

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Another winter of weather surprises has arrived, demonstrating that California desperately needs better seasonal forecasts so we can plan and protect ourselves in this era of climate change.

It’s not just winter weather that’s hard to foresee. Predicting scorching heat, as the state’s daily average maximum temperature rises by more than 4 degrees, is difficult. Impactful heat waves, called Heat Health Events, are expected to increase in frequency and duration, especially in the Central Valley and Sierra. Calling those ahead of time could be a matter of life and death.

But improving seasonal forecasts is easier said than done. Even the most advanced meteorologists have struggled with making seasonal forecasts. Indeed, recent studies, now getting attention in California policy circles, suggest that our state and its meteorologists need a better understanding of the peculiarities of the Pacific Ocean to improve their forecasts.

Making expectations about how much rain or snow is likely to fall in California depends on predicting atmospheric patterns over the northern Pacific Ocean. To do so, meteorologists have tended to look at sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific and the phenomena known as El Niño and La Ninã. Warm temperatures, or “El Niño” conditions, were believed to herald rain. Cool “La Niña” conditions were thought to signal a dry winter.

But a recent paper highlighted by PPIC, with authors from UCLA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, found that El Niño conditions don’t explain most of the variability of our weather. To cite one example, tropical sea surface temperatures and conditions were very similar in 2021–22 and 2022–23, but the first winter was dry and the second was one of the wettest in history.

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“It remains elusive how predictable the year-to-year variability of CA winter precipitation is and why it is challenging to achieve skillful seasonal prediction of CA precipitation,” the paper said.

According to its authors, to arrive at more accurate seasonal forecasts, scientists need a better understanding of the ocean’s “circulation anomalies,” which are deviations in averages and expected conditions independent of El Niño. Current climate models, the paper argued, “show nearly no skill in predicting these,” which means that they have “limited predictive skill for California winter precipitation.”

The paper also argued that current climate models can’t predict patterns that stem from tropical convection (i.e. tropical clouds and thunderstorms) or the stratospheric polar vortex. This means that for better seasonal forecasts, meteorologists need a better understanding of conditions and patterns not only in the relatively nearby western Pacific but also in waters as far away as the Indian and Arctic oceans.

How do we achieve this?

One answer is to devote more time and resources to observing oceans, sea ice, and clouds—and their impacts on precipitation. Another answer is to employ better computer capacity and artificial intelligence to build better climate models. This is a planetary problem—if you want better predictions of California precipitation, you need to improve modeling and data for the climate of the whole earth.

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But such improvements won’t happen fast. So, for at least a few more winters, we’re stuck with unreliable seasonal forecasts and unpredictable weather.



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Operation Hands Down disrupts Central California gangs – Inside CDCR

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Operation Hands Down disrupts Central California gangs – Inside CDCR


CDCR staff assisted local, state and federal law enforcement agencies May 28 for Operation Hands Down, a large-scale gang takedown.

Overall, 43 search warrants were served at different locations throughout the San Joaquin Valley.

This marked the culmination of a two-month undercover operation focusing on Mexican Mafia and Sureño gang members committing various crimes.

Crimes included homicides, firearms trafficking, narcotics trafficking, shootings, robberies, assaults, sex offenses against minors and organized violence within custodial facilities.

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Operation Hands Down results in 69 arrests

Results:

  • 69 arrests
  • 73 guns, many high-capacity magazines, rounds of ammunition seized
  • narcotics, cash confiscated
500 pounds of methamphetamine was seized. Photo courtesy Fresno County Sheriff’s Office.

The drugs included 55 pounds of methamphetamine, three pounds of cocaine and a small amount of fentanyl powder. Nearly $165,000 was seized, which derived from narcotics trafficking, firearms sales and organized street gang taxes.

The arrests of these men, women and children are expected to have an immediate impact on lowering violence across California’s Central Valley.

“By disrupting these criminal organizations, we are confident our hard work will deliver a sense of peace to residents who deserve to feel safe in their communities,” according to the agencies.

The Fresno County Sheriff’s Office and the Multi-Agency Gang Enforcement Consortium (MAGEC) thanked the numerous law enforcement agencies for their assistance throughout this investigation.


Multiple agencies focus on disrupting gangs

In total, more than 500 law enforcement members participated.

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Some of their specialized assignments are: Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT), Crisis Negotiation Team (CNT), Air Support Unit, K-9 Unit, Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD), Incident Management Team (IMT), Dispatch Unit, Crime Analyst Unit and Fresno County Jail Correctional Officers.

Participating agencies / task forces included:

  • California Department of Justice Special Operations Unit
  • Federal Bureau of Investigations
  • Fresno County District Attorney’s Office
  • Homeland Security Investigations
  • CHP
  • CDCR
  • California Department of Fish and Wildlife
  • U.S. Marshals Service
  • Police departments from Clovis, Coalinga, Fresno, Kingsburg, Madera, Reedley, Sanger, Selma and Visalia
  • Tulare County Sheriff’s Regional Gun Violence Enforcement Team (TARGET)
  • Kings County Sheriff’s Major Crimes Task Force (MCTF)
  • Madera County Sheriff’s Office
  • Merced County Sheriff’s Gang and Narcotic Enforcement Team (MAGNET)

This remains an ongoing investigation. Anyone with information that can help detectives, report it by contacting the Fresno County Sheriff’s Office at 559-600-3111. You may also contact Valley Crime Stoppers at 559-498-7867 or www.valleycrimestoppers.org. You will remain anonymous and may be eligible for a cash reward.


Follow CDCR on YouTube, Facebook, X (formerly Twitter). Listen to the CDCR Unlocked podcast.

See more stories on joint operations.

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The US$4.25 trillion question: who will face off for California governor?

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The US.25 trillion question: who will face off for California governor?


The race for California governor in November will be a battle between a Democrat promising to cement the state’s status as a stronghold of liberal policies and a Republican pledging to dramatically reverse course in America’s most populous state.

Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator backed by President Donald Trump, has won enough votes to advance to the general election, Associated Press determined on Tuesday. He will face Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former state attorney general and health secretary under President Joe Biden.

The winner will succeed Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom to lead the state that is home to roughly 39 million people, Hollywood, a booming tech industry and a vast farming region that helps feed the nation. By itself, California represents one of the largest economies in the world at US$4.25 trillion.

Newsom, one of his party’s top foils against the Trump administration, was widely seen as eyeing a run for president himself in 2028.

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The next governor will have to take on stubborn issues including a high cost of living, housing shortages and homelessness.

Hilton is banking his campaign on voters being frustrated enough to do something they have not done in two decades: elect a Republican to statewide office. The last time that happened was when Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger won a second term in 2006. Hilton has campaigned as an outsider who would bring change after more than 15 years of one-party rule.



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California insurance commissioner race is set: Kim vs. Allen

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California insurance commissioner race is set: Kim vs. Allen


By Levi Sumagaysay, CalMatters

This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.

For the first time since California insurance commissioner became an elected position, two Democrats will vie for the job in November.

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The top two vote-getters in the June primary were former San Francisco Board of Supervisors member Jane Kim and state Sen. Ben Allen, who received about 27% and 20% of the vote, respectively. One of them will succeed Ricardo Lara, the former Democratic lawmaker who has served two terms as insurance commissioner. Lara has presided over the Insurance Department in the past eight years, during which the state saw its deadliest and most devastating fires. 

Kim or Allen will be taking on complicated, enormous challenges that have implications for local communities, people’s ability to buy homes and start businesses, and the state’s economy. 

In the past few years, insurance companies stopped writing new policies or renewing old ones, especially in high-risk areas, citing increasing wildfire risk from climate change and inflation that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. This caused homeowners to turn to the last-resort FAIR Plan, which is mandated by law to provide fire insurance. The plan, run by an alliance of insurers, has grown to more than 684,000 policies in force as of March, an increase of 152% since September 2022. It has warned about its ability to keep paying claims after major disasters.

Proposition 103, a law approved by voters in 1988, means that among many other things, the elected commissioner has the power to approve rate increases. It has kept the state’s rates from rising too much over the years — Californians’ homeowners insurance premiums have hovered around the middle of the pack nationwide — but that could change. Last year, the commissioner put in place regulations that include new factors insurers can use when setting their premiums, such as catastrophe modeling and reinsurance costs. Some companies have applied for and received approval to raise their rates, so they’re starting to write policies again.

Keeping insurance available but affordable will be the most pressing issue for either Kim or Allen, whose responsibilities will also include regulating auto, pet and some aspects of health insurance, plus workers’ compensation. 

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Another problem that will need plenty of attention: making sure insurance companies pay their claims in a timely manner that helps communities to rebuild. The L.A.-area fires shed a light on insurer practices that delay and deny claims, as well as underinsurance and the lack of standards for smoke damage, which have held up recovery. Pending legislation — such as those authored by Allen, whose district was hit by the fires last year — and lawsuits will address some of those issues. Well-organized fire survivors who called for Lara’s resignation over his department’s response to their concerns will surely keep up the pressure on his successor.

Here’s a look at each candidate’s record and how she or he would approach the job, based on their interviews with CalMatters and what they have said publicly, including at candidate forums.

Jane Kim

Kim’s proposal to create “natural disaster insurance for all,” inspired by a program in New Zealand, has gotten a lot of attention. She plans to fund such a system with a portion of policyholder premiums that insurance companies would collect and divert to the state. The state would then guarantee fire and flood coverage, while insurance companies would continue to cover other risks.

Naysayers, including consumer advocates, wonder why she hasn’t released any specifics about how much capital such a fund would require. Kim told CalMatters that it would need to be studied, but that at its core her proposal would generate revenue. 

Opponents of her proposal also say it’s a bad idea to shift catastrophic burden onto the state, pointing to what they say is the failure of splitting off earthquake insurance from homeowner insurance — most California homeowners now have no insurance coverage.

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“We (taxpayers) already are on the hook,” Kim said. “When insurers and utilities refuse to pay, they just pass it on to us anyway. Sharing the risk is important.” 

Kim also told CalMatters that an idea Merritt Farren, a Republican candidate for commissioner, proposed — that the state create a reinsurance authority to encourage insurers to write policies in the state — “may turn out to be a more efficient model.” 

Among Kim’s shorter-term priorities if she wins: 

  • Create public dashboards to show how insurance companies are spending policyholder premiums, and that show their record on claims.
  • Expand eligibility for a program that provides low-cost insurance to drivers who make less than $38,000 a year. 
  • Tie a company’s ability to sell auto insurance in the state to its willingness to write homeowner policies.
  • Make the FAIR Plan more transparent by requiring that its list of board members be public, and that its board meetings be public.
  • Freeze rates when policyholders file claims.

The former San Francisco elected official, an attorney, touts among her accomplishments free community college for the city’s residents; the first $15 minimum wage ordinance in the state; and a tenant-protection ordinance to avoid unjust evictions. She worked as the California director for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 U.S. presidential campaign and most recently as California Director for the Working Families Party.

Kim has a long list of endorsers, including many unions such as SEIU California. Besides Sanders, another U.S. lawmaker, Rep. Ro Khanna of Silicon Valley, has also endorsed her.

Ben Allen

The state senator, who will be termed out of the Legislature, wants to bring together the state, insurers, builders, local governments and firefighters to work on risk-reduction strategies.

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“I think that’s ultimately going to be the way that we get ourselves out of this mess,” he told CalMatters.

What he calls a comprehensive approach includes thinking about where people live and build: “We shouldn’t be building new construction that is irresponsible in high-risk areas. We should be looking for ways to carefully and sensitively encourage people to pull back from high-risk areas.”

If he wins, Allen’s other plans include:

  • Create a consumer advocate position within the insurance department, and increase staff to handle customer service. 
  • Require insurers to explain claim denials and provide real-time reports of delays and outstanding claims after a disaster.
  • Increase oversight of the FAIR Plan and make sure it complies with commissioner orders.
  • Ban the insurance commissioner and staff from working for the industry immediately after they leave the department.

Allen has played up his experience as a legislator, including writing and passing bills related to holding insurance companies accountable. For example, a law he wrote now requires insurers to pay 60% of policyholders’ contents coverage without a detailed inventory, and gives consumers more time to provide that inventory. He also touts writing Proposition 4, the bond measure approved by the state’s voters in 2024 “for safe drinking water, wildfire prevention and protecting communities and natural lands from climate risks.”

Other pending bills authored by him include one that would require insurers to give homeowners 90 days notice before they intend not to renew their policies, along with a clear explanation. Another would penalize insurance companies that fail to correct their practices after the insurance department finds that they have violated laws and regulations.

Allen also has many endorsements, including the two leaders of the state Legislature, Senate Pro Tem Monique Limon and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas. U.S. Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, both from California, unions and the Consumer Federation of California also endorse him.

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This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.



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