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US leaders predicted Kyiv’s swift fall after Russian invasion. Why were they so wrong?

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US leaders predicted Kyiv’s swift fall after Russian invasion. Why were they so wrong?

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As Russia massed a big navy presence on its border with Ukraine weeks earlier than launching its invasion, Western intelligence officers have been involved the capital metropolis of Kyiv may fall in a matter of days amid a Russian assault.

Now two weeks into the battle, the capital remained in Ukrainian palms and Russian troops have did not make substantial progress as opposition forces proceed to place up fierce resistance. Russian forces have been reportedly attempting to encircle town, however the lack of gear and personnel has taken its toll and considerably slowed their advance. 

In the meantime, Moscow has focused a number of Ukrainian cities with devastating airstrikes which have left civilians useless and compelled many to flee to neighboring international locations. 

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The predictions that Kyiv would fall, a significant Russian goal, represented an intelligence failure, although not a significant one, stated Rebekah Koffler, a former Protection Intelligence Company officer and writer of “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America.”

A part of the misstep by intelligence officers was the affect of earlier occasions, she stated, citing the disastrous withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the Sept. 11 assaults and the Iraq Struggle. 

“They’re somewhat bit influenced by that they usually wished to telegraph to the policymakers the urgency,” Koffler instructed Fox Information. 

Milley’s prediction

In early February, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees Gen. Mark Milley instructed lawmakers throughout a closed-door briefing that Kyiv may fall inside 72 hours after a full-scale Russian invasion. He stated the operation may lead to 15,000 Ukrainian navy deaths and 4,000 Russian troop deaths.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR: INTEL OFFICIALS PREDICT ‘UGLY’ WEEKS AHEAD AS PUTIN DOUBLES DOWN

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That prediction, like predictions concerning how lengthy Afghanistan’s military may final with out U.S. help, has already been disproved. Kyiv has held out gone the dire prognostication. The struggle grinds on. Final week, Russia claimed it had misplaced 498 navy personnel, a determine broadly disputed by the Pentagon, which put the loss of life toll someplace between 2,000 and 4,000. Ukraine has claimed almost 11,000 Russian navy deaths and the Kremlin is believed to be actively concealing the true quantity. 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees Gen. Mark A. Milley testifies on Capitol Hill, Sept. 29, 2021. (Getty Photos)

The very fact stays that Kyiv didn’t fall, and Afghanistan didn’t stand, regardless of Milley’s speculations in Could 2021 that the U.S.-backed authorities there may.

“It is not a foregone conclusion, in my skilled navy estimate, that the Taliban routinely win and Kabul falls, or any of these form of dire predictions,” Milley stated throughout a information briefing on the time. “There is a important navy functionality within the Afghan authorities, and we’ve to see how this performs out.” 

Afghanistan fell swiftly to the Taliban after the U.S. navy shuttered Bagram Air Base. Milley, together with Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, was among the many Biden administration leaders who green-lit that plan. They’re now serving to direct the U.S. response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

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Nearer to Kyiv

The preventing between either side has moved nearer to Kyiv as civilians proceed to be focused by Russian shelling. On Monday, Ukrainian officers claimed to have downed two Russian plane over the realm and Russian artillery models have shelled the outer parts of town.

From a manpower standpoint, Russia has despatched almost 100% of its fight forces into Ukraine, Protection Division officers stated Monday. That is an uncommon transfer: Armed forces are likely to preserve numbers in reserve outdoors the theater of fight. As well as, Moscow was recruiting Syrian fighters to again up the Russian military because the Kremlin struggled to include its losses, together with international condemnation over the invasion and political and financial isolation. Moscow has already reportedly despatched Chechen forces to search out Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and people forces have reportedly been eradicated by the Ukrainians.

Pete Marocco, former deputy assistant secretary of protection for battle and stabilization operations, instructed Fox Information that predictions about whether or not Kyiv would fall to Russian troops got here earlier than the Beijing Winter Olympics in February. 

A woman and her child sit on the pavement in a subway station turned into a shelter in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday. (Associated Press)

A lady and her baby sit on the pavement in a subway station was a shelter in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday. (Related Press)

“I’m undecided it was an intelligence failure. I don’t know that it was an inaccurate assertion to say that it may have fallen inside 72 hours,” he stated. “As time languished on, Ukraine grew to become ready.”

He famous that such dire warnings may probably be messaged with the intent of spurring one’s allies to make mandatory preparations or probably overcompensating for the miscalculations in Afghanistan.

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‘Lull earlier than the beginning’

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine got here days after the top of the Winter Video games, a misstep on Putin’s half, stated Marocco. The rationale why he waited to start navy operations is left to hypothesis, he stated. 

Anti-tank constructions are seen in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday. (Reuters)

Anti-tank constructions are seen in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday. (Reuters)

“I don’t see him as having that type of sensitivity or caring except there might need been some type of tactic or mutual settlement with China,” Marocco stated. “If he did that, that may be a shocking strategic blunder on his half. I are likely to assume that there’s one other clarification behind the scenes as to why there was this lull earlier than the beginning. Maybe to permit predictable sanctions targets sufficient time to maneuver belongings earlier than U.S. sanctions can be put in place.”

Because the struggle rages, intelligence warnings of the downfall of Kyiv are irrelevant, stated Daniel Hoffman, a retired CIA Senior Clandestine Companies Officer. He added that intelligence does not make predictions. 

“The Russian logistics suck. The availability chain sucks. Zelenskyy has been a hero. Ukrainians have stepped as much as struggle,” he instructed Fox Information. “It is all the time on a spectrum. You ask some CIA analyst and they’d have stated: ‘I’ve a low medium or excessive degree of confidence that the struggle may final this lengthy or that lengthy.’”

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“I am not even positive it is a difficulty,” he added. “It is over. It does not matter. The struggle’s on.”

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Nix leads Broncos past Chiefs' reserves 38-0 and into playoffs for 1st time since 2015 season

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Nix leads Broncos past Chiefs' reserves 38-0 and into playoffs for 1st time since 2015 season

DENVER (AP) — Rookie Bo Nix set a franchise record by completing his first 18 passes and the Denver Broncos ended an eight-year playoff drought Sunday with a 38-0 rout of the Kansas City Chiefs’ bevy of backups.

The Broncos (10-7) snapped a two-game skid and buried nearly a decade’s worth of futility and frustrations by returing to the postseason party for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 following the 2015 season.

They’ll visit Buffalo (13-4) in the wild-card round next weekend after handing the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (15-2) their first shutout since Dec. 16, 2012, at Oakland.

Having already secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed and sole first-round bye in their quest for an unprecedented three-peat, Chiefs coach Andy Reid sat Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and a host of other starters.

Carson Wentz got the start at quarterback and fizzled in his first extended action since Week 18 with the Rams last season. He was 10 of 17 for 98 yards and was sacked four times by the league’s best pass rush (62 sacks).

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Nix threw for four touchdowns, giving him 29 for the season, second-most by a rookie in NFL history, behind only Justin Herbert’s 31 in 2020.

He finished 26 of 29 for 321 yards, and his 18 consecutive completions also were the most ever by a Broncos QB. Nix hit Marvin Mims twice, Courtland Sutton (five times for 98 yards) and Devaughn Vele for scores.

Vele’s TD was intended for Adam Trautman but ricocheted off cornerbacks Nazeeh Johnson (twice) and Keith Taylor before Vele cradled the catch just before tumbling out of the back of the end zone, giving Nix 17 consecutive completions at that point and extending Denver’s lead to 21-0.

That wild conclusion capped an 18-play, 89-yard drive that lasted more than 11 minutes, keeping Wentz cooling his cleats on the sideline next to Mahomes, who was decked out in a white hoodie.

After Harrison Butker was wide left on a 51-yard field goal — his first miss in 18 tries at Empower Field at Mile High — Wil Lutz gave Denver a 24-0 halftime lead by nailing a 33-yarder with 3 seconds left.

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The Broncos made it 31-0 on Mims’ second TD catch late in the third quarter and Audric Estime punched it in from the 1 in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs won’t play again until Jan. 18 or 19, meaning Mahomes, who last played on Christmas Day, and other stars who sat this one out will have at least 24 days between games.

The Broncos are back in the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 after the 2015 season. That’s the longest playoff drought for a team after raising the Lombardi Trophy.

The Broncos’ clincher came 3,255 days after Von Miller led them to a 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers on Feb. 7, 2016, and their reward as the AFC’s seventh and final seed is a trip to Buffalo next weekend to face Miller in the first round of the playoffs.

The Bills were the only other team to beat Kansas City this season, 30-21 in Week 11.

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The Chiefs’ loss ended their six-game win streak but eliminated the prospect of them having to possibly face Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow at some point in the playoffs. The Bengals, who won their fifth consecutive game Saturday night at Pittsburgh, needed Denver to lose to have a chance to sneak into the playoffs at 9-8.

The Chiefs, who had won 17 of their previous 18 games against the Broncos, were planning on staying in Denver for the night because of a winter storm that also delayed their flight into Colorado for several hours Saturday.

Injuries

Chiefs DB Chamarri Conner injured a shoulder in the first half and was ruled out at the start of the third quarter. Also sitting out for Kansas City were RB Isiah Pacheco (ribs), RT Jawaan Taylor (knee), CB Jaylen Watson (ankle), WR Mecole Hardman (knee), DE George Karlaftis, CB Trent McDuffie and DT Chris Jones (calf), among others.

The Broncos came out of the game healthy. WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey left briefly with an ankle injury in the first half but only missed a few snaps.

Up next

Chiefs: A first-round bye as they get healthy for the AFC divisional round Jan. 18-19.

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Broncos: A visit next weekend to Buffalo for a wild-card game against the Bills.

___

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

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Austrian nationalist party leader rumored to be in talks to form government

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Austrian nationalist party leader rumored to be in talks to form government

Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen on Sunday announced that he would meet with far-right politician Herbert Kickl as speculation grows that he will ask the Freedom Party leader to form a government.

Van der Bellen made the announcement after meeting with Chancellor Karl Nehammer and others at his presidential palace. Nehammer has announced his intention to resign after coalition talks between his conservative Austrian People’s Party and the center-left Social Democrats collapsed over the budget.

Nehammer has ruled out working with Kickl, but others within his party are less adamant. Earlier Sunday, the People’s Party nominated its general secretary, Christian Stocker, as interim leader, but the president said Nehammer would remain chancellor for now.

Van der Bellen said that he had spent several hours talking to key officials, after which he got the impression that “the voices within the People’s Party who exclude working with the Freedom Party under its leader Herbert Kickl have become quieter.”

GERMANY ACCUSES ELON MUSK OF TRYING TO INTERFERE IN ITS NATIONAL ELECTIONS

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The president said that this development has “potentially opened a new path,” which has prompted him to invite Kickl for a meeting on Monday morning.

Kickl’s Freedom Party topped the polls in the autumn’s national election with 29.2% of the vote, but Van der Bellen tasked Nehammer with putting together a new government because no other party was willing to work with Kickl.

That decision drew heavy criticism from the Freedom Party and its supporters, with Kickl saying in October that it was “not right and not logical” that he did not get a mandate to form a government.

“We are not responsible for the wasted time, the chaotic situation and the enormous breach of trust that has emerged,” Kickl said Sunday afternoon on social media. “On the contrary: It is clear that the Freedom Party has been and continues to be the only stable factor in Austrian politics.”

Exterior view of the Austrian Peoples’ Party’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria, Sunday, Jan. 05, 2025. (AP Photo/Heinz-Peter Bader)

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Stocker addressed reporters on Sunday afternoon and confirmed that he had been appointed “unanimously” by his party to serve as interim leader. “I am very honored and happy,” he said.

He also welcomed the decision by the president to meet with Kickl and said that he now expects that the leader of the party that emerged as the clear winner from the last election would be tasked with forming a government.

“If we are invited to negotiations to form a government, we will accept this invitation,” Stocker added.

In the past, Stocker has criticized Kickl, calling him a “security risk” for the country.

In its election program titled “Fortress Austria,” the Freedom Party calls for “remigration of uninvited foreigners,” for achieving a more “homogeneous” nation by tightly controlling borders and suspending the right to asylum via an emergency law.

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The Freedom Party also calls for an end to sanctions against Russia, is highly critical of Western military aid to Ukraine and wants to bow out of the European Sky Shield Initiative, a missile defense project launched by Germany. The Freedom Party has also signed a friendship agreement in 2016 with Putin’s United Russia Party that it now claims has expired.

Kickl has criticized “elites” in Brussels and called for some powers to be brought back from the European Union to Austria.

Austria was thrown into political turmoil on Friday after the liberal party Neos pulled out of coalition talks with the the People’s Party and the Social Democrats. On Saturday the two remaining parties, who have only a one-seat majority in Parliament, made another attempt to form a government — but that also ended in failure after a few hours, with negotiators saying they were unable to agree on how to repair the budget deficit.

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Scholz condemns Musk's support for far-right AfD

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Scholz condemns Musk's support for far-right AfD

German government officials previously accused Musk of election interference as his endorsement comes weeks ahead of the country’s general elections in February.

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned Elon Musk’s endorsement of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party ahead of the country’s upcoming elections.

Musk has repeatedly backed AfD on social media platform X, which he owns. Two weeks ago, the US billionaire claimed “only the AfD can save Germany.” Musk also endorsed the party in an op-ed he wrote for the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag at the end of December.

German government officials last week accused Musk of election interference, as his comments come weeks before Germany is set to hold its elections on 23 February.

Scholz has previously ignored Musk’s personal attacks, such as when he called the chancellor an “incompetent fool” and urged him to “resign immediately” following the Magdeburg attack on 20 December, but expressed concern as the tech mogul has seemingly tried to get involved in the general election.

“The crucial thing is that Mr. Musk has supported a partly right-wing extremist party and, as you can see, is not only acting in that direction in this country. And that is something we not only disagree with, I completely reject that,” Sholz said at a press conference on Sunday.

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The German chancellor added that it was not the first time the SDP, his own party, had to defend themselves against “rich entrepreneurs”. What is new, however, is the role of media and algorithms in shaping popular opinions.

“What is certainly new is the fact that it is a global media entrepreneur. What is certainly new is the fact that with algorithms, it is not certain how opinion is formed, which is organised by the structures of these systems.”

Scholz also rejected reports claiming he was planning a meeting with Russian President Putin.

“That is a false claim. You can’t do that. It is deeply indecent. There is no evidence for this. No one can report anything that no one has even thought about. And therefore, I think even upright people should be outraged when false allegations are made.”

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