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US leaders predicted Kyiv’s swift fall after Russian invasion. Why were they so wrong?

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As Russia massed a big navy presence on its border with Ukraine weeks earlier than launching its invasion, Western intelligence officers have been involved the capital metropolis of Kyiv may fall in a matter of days amid a Russian assault.

Now two weeks into the battle, the capital remained in Ukrainian palms and Russian troops have did not make substantial progress as opposition forces proceed to place up fierce resistance. Russian forces have been reportedly attempting to encircle town, however the lack of gear and personnel has taken its toll and considerably slowed their advance. 

In the meantime, Moscow has focused a number of Ukrainian cities with devastating airstrikes which have left civilians useless and compelled many to flee to neighboring international locations. 

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The predictions that Kyiv would fall, a significant Russian goal, represented an intelligence failure, although not a significant one, stated Rebekah Koffler, a former Protection Intelligence Company officer and writer of “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America.”

A part of the misstep by intelligence officers was the affect of earlier occasions, she stated, citing the disastrous withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the Sept. 11 assaults and the Iraq Struggle. 

“They’re somewhat bit influenced by that they usually wished to telegraph to the policymakers the urgency,” Koffler instructed Fox Information. 

Milley’s prediction

In early February, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees Gen. Mark Milley instructed lawmakers throughout a closed-door briefing that Kyiv may fall inside 72 hours after a full-scale Russian invasion. He stated the operation may lead to 15,000 Ukrainian navy deaths and 4,000 Russian troop deaths.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR: INTEL OFFICIALS PREDICT ‘UGLY’ WEEKS AHEAD AS PUTIN DOUBLES DOWN

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That prediction, like predictions concerning how lengthy Afghanistan’s military may final with out U.S. help, has already been disproved. Kyiv has held out gone the dire prognostication. The struggle grinds on. Final week, Russia claimed it had misplaced 498 navy personnel, a determine broadly disputed by the Pentagon, which put the loss of life toll someplace between 2,000 and 4,000. Ukraine has claimed almost 11,000 Russian navy deaths and the Kremlin is believed to be actively concealing the true quantity. 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees Gen. Mark A. Milley testifies on Capitol Hill, Sept. 29, 2021. (Getty Photos)

The very fact stays that Kyiv didn’t fall, and Afghanistan didn’t stand, regardless of Milley’s speculations in Could 2021 that the U.S.-backed authorities there may.

“It is not a foregone conclusion, in my skilled navy estimate, that the Taliban routinely win and Kabul falls, or any of these form of dire predictions,” Milley stated throughout a information briefing on the time. “There is a important navy functionality within the Afghan authorities, and we’ve to see how this performs out.” 

Afghanistan fell swiftly to the Taliban after the U.S. navy shuttered Bagram Air Base. Milley, together with Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, was among the many Biden administration leaders who green-lit that plan. They’re now serving to direct the U.S. response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

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Nearer to Kyiv

The preventing between either side has moved nearer to Kyiv as civilians proceed to be focused by Russian shelling. On Monday, Ukrainian officers claimed to have downed two Russian plane over the realm and Russian artillery models have shelled the outer parts of town.

From a manpower standpoint, Russia has despatched almost 100% of its fight forces into Ukraine, Protection Division officers stated Monday. That is an uncommon transfer: Armed forces are likely to preserve numbers in reserve outdoors the theater of fight. As well as, Moscow was recruiting Syrian fighters to again up the Russian military because the Kremlin struggled to include its losses, together with international condemnation over the invasion and political and financial isolation. Moscow has already reportedly despatched Chechen forces to search out Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and people forces have reportedly been eradicated by the Ukrainians.

Pete Marocco, former deputy assistant secretary of protection for battle and stabilization operations, instructed Fox Information that predictions about whether or not Kyiv would fall to Russian troops got here earlier than the Beijing Winter Olympics in February. 

A woman and her child sit on the pavement in a subway station turned into a shelter in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday. (Associated Press)

A lady and her baby sit on the pavement in a subway station was a shelter in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday. (Related Press)

“I’m undecided it was an intelligence failure. I don’t know that it was an inaccurate assertion to say that it may have fallen inside 72 hours,” he stated. “As time languished on, Ukraine grew to become ready.”

He famous that such dire warnings may probably be messaged with the intent of spurring one’s allies to make mandatory preparations or probably overcompensating for the miscalculations in Afghanistan.

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‘Lull earlier than the beginning’

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine got here days after the top of the Winter Video games, a misstep on Putin’s half, stated Marocco. The rationale why he waited to start navy operations is left to hypothesis, he stated. 

Anti-tank constructions are seen in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday. (Reuters)

Anti-tank constructions are seen in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday. (Reuters)

“I don’t see him as having that type of sensitivity or caring except there might need been some type of tactic or mutual settlement with China,” Marocco stated. “If he did that, that may be a shocking strategic blunder on his half. I are likely to assume that there’s one other clarification behind the scenes as to why there was this lull earlier than the beginning. Maybe to permit predictable sanctions targets sufficient time to maneuver belongings earlier than U.S. sanctions can be put in place.”

Because the struggle rages, intelligence warnings of the downfall of Kyiv are irrelevant, stated Daniel Hoffman, a retired CIA Senior Clandestine Companies Officer. He added that intelligence does not make predictions. 

“The Russian logistics suck. The availability chain sucks. Zelenskyy has been a hero. Ukrainians have stepped as much as struggle,” he instructed Fox Information. “It is all the time on a spectrum. You ask some CIA analyst and they’d have stated: ‘I’ve a low medium or excessive degree of confidence that the struggle may final this lengthy or that lengthy.’”

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“I am not even positive it is a difficulty,” he added. “It is over. It does not matter. The struggle’s on.”

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TVLine Items: Natasha Rothwell’s How to Die Alone Release Date, Macy’s Fireworks Ratings and More

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TVLine Items: Natasha Rothwell’s How to Die Alone Release Date, Macy’s Fireworks Ratings and More


‘How to Die Alone’ Release Date, Natasha Rothwell Hulu Comedy



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Brazil's leftist president concerned Biden can't beat Trump: 'I think Biden has a problem'

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Brazil's leftist president concerned Biden can't beat Trump: 'I think Biden has a problem'

President Biden is now facing calls from members of the international community who want him to quit the 2024 presidential race, with even leftist Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva warning that “Biden has a problem.”

“He’s moving more slowly, he is taking longer to answer questions,” Lula explained to a local radio station, according to Bloomberg. “The U.S. elections are very important for all the world.” 

Biden’s first presidential debate against former President Trump last month proved to be a debacle, leading Biden to admit just days later that he “screwed up.” 

“I had a bad night,” Biden, 81, said Thursday in an interview with radio host Earl Ingram. “And the fact of the matter is that, you know, I screwed up.” 

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While Republicans predictably criticized the performance, even Democrats have fallen into a panic, and the president has had to hold crisis talks with close allies to reassure them he’s still up to the job — and will be for another four years. 

Former President Trump and President Biden debate in Atlanta on June 27.  (Getty Images)

The debate, however, sent shock waves through the international community, with some allies refusing to stay quiet about an issue that they see as being too important to treat delicately. 

Matteo Renzi, who served as Italian prime minister from 2014 to 2016 and who proved to be a close friend to Democrats during his tenure, wrote on social media platform X that “Joe Biden can’t do it.” 

TRUMP CHALLENGES BIDEN TO SECOND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE — BUT THERE’S A CATCH

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“As Senator, Vice President, President he served the United States of America with honor,” Renzi wrote. “He doesn’t deserve an inglorious ending, he doesn’t deserve one. Changing horses is a duty for everyone.” 

Biden looks off while with G7 leaders

From left: Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy; Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada; Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan; Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of Great Britain; EU Council President Charles Michel; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD); Emmanuel Macron, President of France; EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Biden watch parachutists at the G-7 summit in Fasano, Italy, on June 13. (Michael Kappeler/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski struck a similar tone in a cryptic message on X that some have taken to be an unfavorable comparison between Biden and the great Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius.

“Marcus Aurelius was a great emperor, but he screwed up his succession by passing the baton to his feckless son Commodus (He, from the Gladiator) whose disastrous rule started Rome’s decline),” Sikorski wrote. “It’s important to manage one’s ride into the sunset.”

G7 summit

President Biden, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, French President Emmanuel Macron, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attend a session on Africa, climate change and development on the first day of the G-7 summit in Savelletri, Italy, on June 13. (Reuters/Yara Nardi)

Marie-Agness Strack-Zimmermann, a German politician and current Chair of the Defense Committee of the Bundestag, told one outlet, “The fact that a man like Trump could become president again because the Democrats are unable to put up a strong candidate against him would be a historic tragedy that the whole world would feel,” The Guardian reported.  

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Other European officials have reportedly started to privately argue that Biden should step aside in favor of someone with a stronger chance of beating Trump, with Vice President Kamala Harris one of the leading candidates to assume the task.

Biden and Harris

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris appear on the Truman Balcony of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Thursday. (Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Bloomberg reported that sources familiar with high-level discussions between European officials worry about the U.S. election due to its potential impact on Ukraine and NATO at a time when Russia remains aggressive.

Biden will have a chance to reassure America’s allies during a NATO summit that he will host in the U.S. next week, with his every action under intense scrutiny. One official at the G-7 meeting in Italy last month told Bloomberg that an air of worry hung around the meetings due to Biden’s apparent cognitive issues. 

One person familiar with those conversations told The Washington Post that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had seen Biden as “mentally on top of his game” but physically weak — concerns that grew more pronounced following the debate.

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In Asia, Japan and South Korea, uneasiness has increased about a return to the strained relations of the Trump era, when his administration urged greater financial contributions for military assistance and tensions rose due to aggressive trade practices, Reuters reported.

Fox News Digital’s Paul Steinhauser and Remy Numa contributed to this report. 

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Slovakia's PM attends first public event since May 15 shooting

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Slovakia's PM attends first public event since May 15 shooting

A gunman shot the Slovakian prime minister five times as he greeted supporters in the town of Handlová in May.

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Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has made his first public appearance since he was shot on May 15 in an apparent assassination attempt.

He spoke at an event at Devín Castle in the capital Bratislava to mark Saint Cyril and Methodius Day, a national holiday in Slovakia to commemorate the day the two Christian missionaries arrived in what was then Moravia.

He made only one reference to his shooting, referring to it only as an “unfortunate event”, and used his speech largely to talk about the need to build a barrier against progressivism which he said is spreading “like a cancer”.

“They are ideologies that are damaging this country. They are ideologies that were created perhaps only the day before yesterday. I do not want Slovakia to be one of the countries that make a caricature of Western civilisation. We are a proud nation,” he said. 

He also used his speech to caution against the war in Ukraine spiralling into a broader regional conflict.

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“If we do not do something in the coming days and months, the situation that is developing in Ukraine could get out of hand and we could see an uncontrolled war,” he warned.

Handlová shooting

The 59-year-old populist prime minister was shot in the abdomen at close range as he greeted supporters following a government meeting in Handlová on 15 May.

Videos showed him approach people gathered at barricades and reach out to shake hands as a man stepped forward, extended his arm and fired five rounds before being tackled and arrested.

Fico underwent a five-hour surgery to treat multiple wounds he suffered in the shooting, followed by another two-hour surgery two days later to remove dead tissue from his gunshot wounds.

In late May, he was airlifted from the hospital in Banská Bystrica to the capital, Bratislava, where he was nursed at home.

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Fico has since said he forgave his attacker and felt “no hatred towards the stranger who shot me”.

“I will not take any active legal action against him or seek damage compensation. I forgive him and let him sort out what he did and why he did it in his own head,” he said.

In early June, Slovakia’s Deputy Prime Minister Robert Kaliňák, who also serves as minister of defence in Fico’s government, said Fico’s condition was gradually improving but that he would likely have permanent health issues.

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