Business
What We’re Watching in 2025
Andrew here. Happy New Year and happy Saturday. This morning, we’re taking a look at what may — or may not — happen in 2025. This is not an effort to crystal-ball the future so much as it is a rundown of big topics that the DealBook team and I have on our radar screen in the new year.
On this list: Changes to deal-making in the new Trump era, the future (or end) of D.E.I. efforts, the growing momentum of workers returning to the office, the evolving relationship between China and the U.S., new investments in artificial intelligence, and yes, the role of Elon Musk in all of the above. Let us know what you think. And we’ll revisit this list at the end of the year.
Deals will flow. Deal makers pretty much universally expect a flood of deals under President-elect Donald Trump after four years of pent-up activity under President Biden, whose antitrust enforcers challenged a record number of mergers. The more interesting question: Which kinds of companies will make those deals? More M.&A. in the energy sector seems probable, given Trump’s support for the industry. Bank deals could also take off: After the regional banking crisis, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the country could benefit from more mergers. Deals may also pop up to address cybersecurity concerns, the impact of GLP-1 drugs and the fierce A.I race.
Media companies will reshuffle. Media executives and their advisers have been saying for years that the industry needs a drastic overhaul to address its new reality: an overabundance of streaming options and the decline of the legacy cable industry. Deals that were effectively considered a no-go under Biden’s aggressive antitrust enforcers may finally be given a green light under a Trump administration.
Everyone is watching to see what a handful of key players do next: Will Comcast’s move to spin off its cable business inspire others, such as Warner Bros. Discovery, to do the same? Will Paramount use Larry Ellison’s deep pockets to acquire streaming businesses? Will Rupert Murdoch respond to his failed attempt to change his family trust by selling Fox, making it bigger, or trying to buy out some of his children? Will Trump allow a major media company (or his own) to buy TikTok?
Big Tech may not catch a break. While corporate America has been anticipating a longer leash under the Trump administration, Silicon Valley giants may still face a lot of scrutiny. Several of Trump’s picks to lead key regulators — Andrew Ferguson at the Federal Trade Commission, Gail Slater at the Justice Department’s antitrust division and Brendan Carr of the Federal Communications Commission — are expected to keep looking closely at Big Tech.
Unlike Lina Khan, the outgoing F.T.C. chief whose lawsuits fighting tech giants’ market power came from a progressive perspective, many of Trump’s picks have accused companies like Google and Meta of silencing conservative voices.
What will Elon Musk do with his power? The tech billionaire has been one of the most influential and omnipresent voices in Trump’s ear since the election, and his perch as co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency potentially gives him great sway — some critics say too much — over government agencies that fear budget cuts.
But the extent of Musk’s agenda remains unclear. He has already fought longtime Trump allies in defense of the skilled-worker visa program known as H-1B, a battle that he appears to have won for now. He’s also likely to push for further deregulation and more openness when it comes to A.I. and crypto. One unknown: how Musk, who sells a lot of Teslas in China, will weigh in on Beijing policy.
Executives want employees back in the office — and politics out of it. Starting this month, many of Amazon’s corporate staff members were required to work from the office five days a week, up from three days a week previously. The tech company’s return-to-office mandate caused waves and there are signs that office attendance across industries is ticking up.
But remote work remains prevalent, with about 30 million workers in hybrid or fully remote arrangements. Will other big tech companies follow Amazon’s lead in 2025?
Along with office attendance, executives are increasingly cracking down on employee activism. Starbucks sued a union that represents some of its workers after local affiliates posted pro-Palestinian social media posts (the union sued back). After Google fired dozens of employees last year over protests related to the company’s cloud computing contract with the Israeli government, the Google C.E.O., Sundar Pichai, told employees that work was not a place to “fight over disruptive issues or debate politics.” The sentiment seems to be catching on: Big tech companies that saw protests after Trump was elected in 2016 were silent after he was elected in 2024. Will the quiet continue?
D.E.I. will fight for its life. In 2024, the programs were attacked by lawsuits, activists such as Robby Starbuck and conservative lawmakers. As companies prepare for a Trump administration, some, like JetBlue and Molson Coors, have flagged diversity, equity and inclusion policies as a risk factor in their security filings. Walmart, Ford Motor and Toyota have rolled back some programs, and others are rebranding their efforts without advertising it, in hopes of attracting less attention. Fewer have publicly fought back, though Costco last month challenged a proposal by activist shareholders looking to end its D.E.I. efforts.
Infrastructure will become a growing focus of the A.I. race. The fight to dominate artificial intelligence is also spurring investment in infrastructure to generate the huge amount of electricity it requires. The International Energy Agency has forecast data center energy demand could double by 2026.
Some of the tech industry’s highest-profile executives are investing. Sam Altman of OpenAI, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates are all backing nuclear fusion start-ups. Microsoft and BlackRock launched a $30 billion fund to invest in A.I. infrastructure last year. Silver Lake, the private equity firm, is spending big on data centers.
One name to watch this year: SoftBank. The Japanese tech investor has reportedly talked to Apollo, the private equity firm, about creating a $20 billion A.I. investment fund, and Masa Son, SoftBank’s mercurial C.E.O., is hunting for deals.
Defense tech could be in for a bumper year. Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine. Whether or not he succeeds, the defense tech industry will benefit either way. It’s already happening: Venture investment in defense start-ups soared last year, and by September had surpassed the total amount invested in 2023. Palantir, a data analytics company, was a star performer. Its market capitalization jumped almost fivefold to $180 billion in 2024, its operating margins have risen sharply and it joined the S&P 500 in September.
Others are also profiting from rising global uncertainty. Anduril Industries, a California-based defense start-up backed by Peter Thiel, the venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder, announced in August that it had raised $1.5 billion in a funding round that valued it at $14 billion. And Helsing, a German start-up that uses A.I. to process live data from the battlefield, is one of Europe’s best-funded companies.
If Trump does manage to end the war, it’s plausible that Western defense companies will find opportunities helping to build Ukraine’s military capability. If he doesn’t, more of their tech may be deployed on the ground there. Smaller, A.I.-powered companies are already testing their equipment in real time in a war where drones and other tech are playing a big role.
How will Trump take on China, and how will Beijing respond? Trump has promised to increase tariffs on goods from China, accusing Beijing and its companies of unfair competition among other things. It’s the same stance he took during his first presidency, when he ratcheted up trade restrictions with the world’s second-biggest economy.
Much uncertainty remains about how Trump’s threats will play out once he’s in office, but Chinese companies have proven adept at finding ways around previous restrictions. Some moved final manufacturing and assembly operations to countries like Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia so they could export directly to the United States without paying the 25 percent levy Trump imposed during his first term. Other businesses, such as Temu, the e-commerce company, set up operations in the U.S. to appear less Chinese and more American. Even after that facade faded, it’s still thriving: Temu was the most downloaded free app in Apple’s App Store in 2024.
How will Trump’s policies affect the economy? Trump’s plan to cut taxes and red tape is expected to keep G.D.P. growth steady at about 3 percent this year, and bolster American businesses’ bottom line in the short run. But his vow to impose tariffs on some of the country’s biggest trading partners on his first day in office could seriously crimp global growth in 2025.
Another pressing question is whether Trump will dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act, which would put billions of dollars’ worth of tax credits in jeopardy. That prospect has prompted even some Big Oil executives to lobby Trump hard to preserve the law.
A wild-card: inflation. Will Trump’s policies reignite it, spooking both the Fed and the so-called bond vigilantes? Keep an eye on the yield for 10-year Treasury notes, market watchers say. A spike there could force the administration to dial back its most ambitious plans to stimulate growth. Already, inflation fears have prompted the Fed to slash its forecast for 2025 rate cuts.
Thanks for reading! We’ll see you Monday.
We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.
Business
How Google’s 32-million mosquito project could change California’s battle against dengue
Google took internet searches to the next level. Could it do the same for mosquito control?
The Silicon Valley-based tech giant is seeking to release up to 64 million sterilized male mosquitoes in California and Florida over two years, according to a notice in the Federal Register. It’s part of an ambitious effort to curb the diseases the insects spread.
Google says it can harness technology to optimize a concept that’s been around for decades, but hasn’t been successfully scaled with mosquitoes to rein in disease.
For example, the process often involves separating the insects by sex to isolate the males. Currently, that’s done manually and can be time consuming. Google says it’s “developing new technologies that combine sensors, algorithms and novel engineering to take advantage of unique aspects of mosquito biology to quickly and accurately sort males from females.”
The company also says it’s building software and monitoring tools to guide releases of sterile males, and its scientists and engineers are creating sensors, traps and software to decide which areas need to be treated and treated again.
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Called Debug, the project targets Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are native to Africa but have infiltrated nearly half of California’s counties since first being detected in the state in 2013. Not only do they drive residents nuts with itchy bites, but they can carry a number of potentially serious diseases, including dengue, Zika, chikungunya and yellow fever.
The plan is to infect males — which don’t bite — with a bacteria called Wolbachia, which effectively renders them sterile. They are then released to seek out wild females and mate. Females will lay eggs but these won’t hatch, which experts say drives down the population over time.
There are other methods to sterilize male mosquitoes. Vector control districts serving Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties have irradiated males and released them in recent years.
Early results are promising. Two neighborhoods treated by the Greater Los Angeles Vector Control District saw a more than 80% reduction in the female Aedes aegypti population in 2024 and 2025.
But as the Greater L.A. district seeks to expand its operations, cost poses a problem. Last year, business owners signaled they weren’t willing to shell out more every year to make it happen. District officials are still hoping to sway them.
If Google moves forward, it wouldn’t be the first time it has been involved in such an effort. In 2018, the company conducted a large-scale trial in Fresno County, releasing 14.4 million Wolbachia-infected males in three neighborhoods.
“At peak mosquito season, the number of female mosquitoes was 95.5% lower in release areas compared to non-release areas, with the most geographically isolated neighborhood reaching a 99% reduction,” a 2020 paper reported.
Google has applied for a permit from the Environmental Protection Agency to carry out the releases in California and Florida, for which the federal agency is currently seeking comments before deciding whether to grant approval.
The company aims to release up to 16 million Wolbachia-infected males in California, and the same in Florida, per year for two years, the Federal Register announcement said, for a total of 64 million.
Urgency to tamp down the invasive mosquito population in California has increased since 2023, when the state logged its first locally acquired dengue cases — meaning people were infected in their communities, not while traveling. The following year, the number of locally acquired cases ballooned to 18, with 14 of them in Los Angeles County.
A study published last week in “The Lancet Regional Health — Americas” found that approximately 18.2 million Californians — primarily in the Central Valley, L.A. and San Diego areas — live in regions where conditions are probably suitable for local dengue transmission.
“Under moderate scenarios of climate warming and urban expansion, an additional 4.1 million residents may be at risk by mid-century,” according to the study led by UC Berkeley’s Lisa Couper. Researchers note the current and future risk of transmission remains low except during summer in the Central Valley and Southern California.
“I’m pretty much in favor of whichever [sterile insect technique] approach gets us the disease prevention and nuisance control we need and at the lowest price,” Susanne Kluh, general manager of the Greater L.A. County Vector Control District, said in an email.
She said her district went with radiation because it was the only approved technique when they wanted to launch their pilot, and that it’s “also the only one where some company does not make a profit in the middle.” However, she wouldn’t rule out using Wolbachia if it turned out to be the most affordable option.
Business
In a first for the country, voters in Monterey Park ban data centers
Residents of Monterey Park voted overwhelmingly to ban data centers on election day, making the San Gabriel Valley city the first in the nation to do so by public vote.
As of Wednesday, 86% of votes were in favor of Measure NDC, the city ban, according to the Los Angeles County registrar-recorder/county clerk.
Other cities and towns have passed moratoriums on data centers, as a wave of opposition sweeps the country. But the Monterey Park vote can only be overturned by another ballot measure, making it the most permanent data center ban in a jurisdiction.
Monterey Park’s City Council had already banned data centers by ordinance, after a proposed 247,000-square-foot data center met an outpouring of public anger and concern. The developer withdrew that plan.
That facility would have been less than 500 feet away from the nearest home, and would have used three times the electricity of the entire 60,000-person city. Residents said it would have caused noise and air pollution and driven up electricity rates.
“This ensures long-lasting protections for current and future generations,” Amy Wong, co-founder of the group San Gabriel Valley Progressive Action, said of the vote. “It means that future city councils cannot overturn a data center ban, even if data center developers wanted to spend money to fund pro-data center candidates.”
The measure had no formal opposition. The developer of the proposed facility, investment firm HMC StratCap, said it wouldn’t engage in the ballot fight when it withdrew in March.
The Data Center Coalition, an industry trade group, expressed disappointment in the vote.
“It sends a signal that the area is closed for business, both for data centers and for other significant economic development projects,” state policy director Khara Boender said.
“It deprives local residents of the opportunity to compete for jobs and investment, while also causing the area to relinquish substantial long-term economic investment, high-wage jobs, and critical tax revenue to neighboring areas or other states.”
SGV Progressive Action worked with hyperlocal groups including No Data Center Monterey Park to rally support for the measure.
The group is now focused on stopping data center proposals in the City of Industry and fighting a move by City of Industry, Santa Fe Springs, Vernon and City of Commerce to welcome data centers and other industry with fast-tracked permitting and tax incentives.
City of Industry, in the San Gabriel Valley, and Vernon, south of downtown L.A., are primarily industrial areas, each with around 300 permanent residents. They are employment centers, and tens of thousands of workers commute in daily.
There has been little vocal opposition to data centers among the few residents of these cities. Wong said the protest is primarily coming from the surrounding neighborhoods.
“If a data center gets built in City of Industry, residents across the region would bear the brunt of pollution and increased utility costs,” Wong said, noting that it is surrounded by 16 other cities and unincorporated communities.
Data center proposals have been limited in California compared to Virginia, Texas, Georgia, Illinois and Arizona, which sit at the center of a recent boom in hyperscaler facilities to power artificial intelligence.
California has the third-most data centers in the country, with 300, but high electricity rates, expensive land and regulatory hurdles mean that fewer, and smaller, facilities are currently planned than in other hotspots.
That doesn’t mean opposition hasn’t been fierce. In Coachella and Imperial County, residents are showing up in droves to protest local proposals.
In the San Gabriel Valley, Montebello, El Monte and Baldwin Park have all enacted temporary moratoriums, and Alhambra recently banned data centers as part of a zoning code update.
Wong said she hoped the ballot measure vote would galvanize the opposition. “The vote is a testament to the people power of our region,” she said. “Our region is worth protecting, and we won’t let data centers determine our future.”
Business
Rent-hike ban to protect fire victims ends despite gouging concerns
A rule intended to prevent rent gouging in the wake of the Eaton and Palisades fires has lapsed in Los Angeles County, possibly exposing some renters to hikes.
The executive order that blocked rent increases was issued by Gov. Gavin Newsom amid the devastating wildfires last year. Under the order, landlords couldn’t increase rents by more than 10% above their prefire levels.
The rule, which was supposed to be temporary and was repeatedly extended, ended Friday after a vote to extend it again failed to garner enough votes. Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, whose district includes Pacific Palisades, sounded the alarm in a motion to extend price protections that failed to pass at the Board of Supervisors’ May 19 meeting.
“These price gouging protections continue to be necessary as construction and rebuilding continue, and as thousands of people remain displaced,” the motion said. “Families which signed short-term leases could face drastic price increases of 50% or more without further price gouging protection.”
Los Angeles County is home to more than 1 million rental properties, though not all of them needed protection from the new rule. There are already stricter rent increase caps for many residences, depending on the location, type and age of the building. Despite the rent control in the region, the people of Los Angeles pay among the highest rents in the country.
It is uncertain whether renters will face rapidly rising rents now that the protection has lapsed. But some real estate experts and policymakers said there was no need for the temporary rule that was part of the governor’s state of emergency.
Supervisors Kathryn Barger, Janice Hahn and Holly Mitchell abstained from voting on the motion to extend the protection, while Supervisors Hilda Solis and Horvath supported it.
“I abstained because I did not see sufficient evidence to justify extending this emergency ordinance, nor did I see evidence to eliminate it entirely,” Hahn said.
Barger’s office said she supported allowing the protections to sunset while waiting to see whether new information emerged.
“Market data already shows countywide rents are only about 2% above pre-emergency levels and rental inventory has grown,” Barger representative Helen E. Chavez Garcia said. “The Supervisor is also mindful of the burden these ongoing protections place on small property owners throughout the county.”
Mitchell did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
There haven’t been steep rent hikes in neighborhoods within three miles of the Palisades fire, according to a Times analysis of data from Zillow, the property listing company.
In ZIP Codes within three miles of the Palisades fire, rent increased 4.8% from December 2024 to April 2025. In areas around the Eaton fire, which destroyed swaths of Altadena, rent jumped 5.2% in the same period.
In L.A. County, ZIP Codes farther from the fires saw only about a 2% increase.
A landlords representative, Jesus Rojas of the Apartment Owners Assn. of Greater Los Angeles, told the supervisors during public comment at the meeting that the county’s rent-gouging rules have “long outlived the emergency they were intended to address” and are now being “wrongfully used to harm thousands of rental housing providers throughout the county.”
“There is no proof that multifamily rental housing providers are hugely increasing rents for impacted homeowners,” Rojas said.
Indeed, there are strong signs that the property market in the Los Angeles area has at last begun to cool.
L.A. metro-area rent prices recently fell to a four-year low, with the median rent slipping to $2,167 in December.
Meanwhile, condominium sales had their slowest start of the year in decades. Condo sales in Los Angeles have plummeted to a 20-year low, with fewer than 2,000 units sold in January and February — the worst start to the year since 2005.
Newsom defended the price-gouging protections shortly after they went into effect.
“In the days following the Los Angeles firestorms, we worked quickly to protect Los Angeles survivors from any form of exploitation,” he said in February 2025. “The state has the tools in place to not only block price gouging during this emergency, but also to prosecute bad actors.”
The Los Angeles County Department of Consumer and Business Affairs said it received more than 2,000 complaints after the fires, alleging that retailers and landlords were taking advantage of people put in hardship by their losses, and sent out more than 2,000 cease-and-desist letters to businesses and landlords for alleged price gouging, said Morine Merritt, who oversees department investigations into consumer and real estate fraud.
“Close to 90% of the complaints that we received involved allegations of rent increases,” Merritt said in an interview. Now that the fire-related protections have expired, existing laws and “regular market conditions determine price increases for goods and services, including rents,” she said.
Crackdowns on fire-related rent gouging have been rare, said Chelsea Kirk of the activist organization the Rent Brigade, which analyzed L.A. County’s rental market in the year after the fires. It reported 18,360 potential examples of price gouging in listings but said that few lawsuits had been filed by authorities so far.
Last week, Rent Brigade announced what it said was the first private civil lawsuit brought by a family that claimed to be rent-gouged in the aftermath of the wildfires. Plaintiffs Randall and Candy Renick, whose Altadena home was damaged, said they were charged nearly three times the maximum permitted rate for nearly 10 months. They seek restitution of $96,000 plus civil penalties and attorneys’ fees.
The rental market has probably stabilized since the fires, Kirk said, but other families may still be “locked into illegal rents” that they agreed to pay when they were in a rush to find housing after they were displaced.
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