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Sudan crisis: What’s next after one week of deadly fighting?

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Sudan crisis: What’s next after one week of deadly fighting?

Combating in Sudan between the forces of two rival generals erupted on April 15, killing greater than 400 individuals, igniting a humanitarian disaster, and elevating fears of a chronic and unpredictable civil warfare.

Battles proceed to rage within the capital, Khartoum, and elsewhere between troops loyal to military chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Daglo, commander of the highly effective paramilitary Speedy Assist Forces (RSF).

Analysts warn the battle might attract overseas armed teams and regional powers, and will have far-reaching penalties, not just for the northeast African nation but additionally for an already unstable area.

A speedy army victory appears unlikely, consultants agree, with al-Burhan’s military extra highly effective, however Hemedti’s RSF excelling in city warfare. The stage seems set for an enduring battle.

Combating spreads

Battles have elevated swiftly, engulfing Khartoum and its twin metropolis Omdurman and a number of other different areas, particularly Darfur.

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“The fight might shortly slide right into a sustained warfare that dangers rippling by the nation’s restive peripheries into its neighbours,” the Worldwide Disaster Group says. “The hostilities have pushed the nation towards the full-blown civil warfare Sudanese have dreaded for years.”

Cameron Hudson – of the Washington-based Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research – says the violence might escalate throughout Sudan’s borders.

“The problem is that the battle … is unfold on each nook of the nation – on the border with Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Ethiopia,” Hudson says.

Refugees

Between 10,000 and 20,000 individuals have fled the combating to Sudan’s western neighbour Chad, the United Nations says.

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Jap Chad was already internet hosting 400,000 Sudanese refugees, and the brand new arrivals are inserting an extra pressure on the nation’s overstretched public companies and sources.

Sudan is one the world’s poorest international locations and in February the UN stated greater than one-third of its inhabitants is going through a rising starvation disaster.

“Tens of millions of civilians are caught within the crossfire and quick working out of primary requirements,” the Worldwide Disaster Group says.

Hudson says he’s “absolutely anticipating a large exodus of civilians” as soon as the primary lasting ceasefire takes maintain. “I’m anticipating tens of millions of individuals to attempt to cross borders,” he says.

Civil warfare

If the battle drags on, extra individuals within the extraordinarily fragmented Sudanese society may take up arms, says analyst Alex de Waal. “There are two protagonists. If the battle continues, the scenario will shortly turn into extra complicated.”

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Both sides is a coalition of a number of totally different teams, de Waal says, who might shift their alliances probably contemplating “ethnic components”.

The New York-based Soufan Middle warned of “meddling from exterior states, warlords, armed militias and a variety of different violent non-state actors”.

“A failure by commanders to rein of their fighters might additional delay violence,” the suppose tank stated.

Regional powers

Different international locations within the area have all formally referred to as for a cessation of violence, however consultants agree Egypt backs al-Burhan whereas the United Arab Emirates backs Hemedti.

Hudson says the 2 generals had been attempting to accumulate arms and reinforcements from neighbouring international locations. Russia’s Wagner mercenary group can also be current in Sudan, however its involvement focuses primarily on exploiting the nation’s gold reserves.

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De Waal warned the combating might attract actors who present funding, weapons “and probably their very own troops or proxies”.

Libya, the Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia and Eritrea are more likely to play some political and even army roles within the battle, he provides.

Mediation

“Sudan’s instability is a priority for all the world, however significantly for neighbouring international locations,” says Emirati political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, noting its strategic place on the Crimson Sea. “Everybody pays a worth.”

Since tensions erupted, mediators from the United Nations, the African Union, the regional IGAD bloc, and Western and Gulf capitals have been trying to convey al-Burhan and Hemedti to the negotiating desk. Up to now, efforts have been in useless.

Some analysts say years of diplomacy with the 2 generals because the overthrow of longtime authoritarian chief Omar al-Bashir in 2019 emboldened them.

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The worldwide group and main powers “are getting nothing” once they now name for a ceasefire, Hudson says.

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Rodrigo Duterte, Philippine Ex-President, Is Arrested on I.C.C. Warrant

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Rodrigo Duterte, Philippine Ex-President, Is Arrested on I.C.C. Warrant

Rodrigo Duterte, the former president of the Philippines, was arrested on Tuesday in Manila, after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant accusing him of crimes against humanity in his war on drugs in which, human rights groups say, tens of thousands of Filipinos were summarily executed.

He was taken into custody at the airport in Manila after returning from a trip to Hong Kong, according to the Philippine government. Mr. Duterte’s lawyer, Salvador Panelo, said the arrest was unlawful, partly because the Philippines withdrew from the court while Mr. Duterte was in office.

Mr. Duterte, 79, who left office in 2022, is a populist firebrand who remains one of the Philippines’ most influential politicians, and he has enjoyed relative immunity despite several accusations against him in connection with his antidrug campaign.

But Mr. Duterte’s arrest could be a major step toward accountability for thousands of Filipinos who have long sought justice for their loved ones, many of whom were gunned down by police officers, hit men and vigilantes. Activists say the vast majority of victims were poor, urban Filipinos, some of whom were minors and people who had nothing to do with the drug trade.

Only a handful of people have been convicted in connection with the killings, which rights groups say totaled roughly 30,000.

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“I am very happy that Duterte has been arrested so we can finally have justice,” said Cristina Jumola, whose three sons were killed during the drug war. “We waited so long for this.”

It was unclear whether Mr. Duterte would be forced to surrender to the I.C.C., which is based in The Hague. The case will be a high-profile test of the court, which in recent months has sought the arrest of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the head of the military junta in Myanmar, Min Aung Hlaing, accusing both men of crimes against humanity.

Minutes before he was arrested, Mr. Duterte was characteristically defiant.

“You would have to kill me first, if you are going to ally with white foreigners,” Mr. Duterte said as he was getting off the plane from Hong Kong, according to a video posted by GMA News, a Philippine broadcaster.

For years, Mr. Duterte seemed untouchable. As mayor of Davao, the second-largest city in the Philippines, for more than two decades, he ran a deadly antidrug crackdown with impunity. In 2016, he parlayed his law-and-order credentials into a victory in the presidential election, even though experts said the country did not have an outsized problem with drugs.

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At his final campaign rally that year, Mr. Duterte told the crowd to “forget the laws on human rights.”

“You drug pushers, holdup men and do-nothings, you better go out,” he said. “Because I’ll kill you.” He said he would give himself and his security forces immunity from prosecution and pardon himself “for the crime of multiple murder.”

While in office, Mr. Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the I.C.C., which had begun looking into the extrajudicial killings.

Mr. Panelo, Mr. Duterte’s lawyer, said the arrest was unlawful in part because the Philippine police had not allowed the former president’s attorneys to meet him at the airport. He said he planned to bring criminal complaints against the police and the officials who ordered the arrest.

He added that the arrest was illegal because the arrest warrant “comes from a spurious source, the I.C.C., which has no jurisdiction over the Philippines.”

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But the Philippines is still a member of Interpol, which can seek the arrest of Mr. Duterte on behalf of the I.C.C. A representative of the international organization was present when Mr. Duterte was arrested.

This is a developing story.

Marlise Simons contributed reporting from Paris.

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Rubio says mineral deal ‘not main topic on agenda’ in Ukraine meeting

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Rubio says mineral deal ‘not main topic on agenda’ in Ukraine meeting

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Monday that the mineral deal, sought by President Donald Trump, is “not the main topic on the agenda” for the meeting set with the Ukrainian delegation in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. 

“I wouldn’t prejudge tomorrow about whether or not we have a minerals deal,” he told reporters on board a flight to Saudi Arabia. “It’s an important topic, but it’s not the main topic on the agenda.

“The minerals deal is on the table that’s continuing to be worked on – it’s not part of this conversation, per se,” he said, noting that Tuesday’s meeting in Jeddah can be considered successful even without securing such an agreement.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with the media on his military airplane as he flies to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, March 10, 2025. (Saul Loeb/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

LITHUANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER: ONLY WAY TO NEGOTIATE WITH RUSSIA IS WITH A ‘GUN ON THE TABLE’

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“It’s certainly a deal the president wants to see done, but it doesn’t necessarily have to happen tomorrow,” Rubio added. 

The Ukrainian delegation is set to include Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office, Andrii Sybiha, minister of foreign affairs, Pavlo Palisa, colonel of armed forces of Ukraine and an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who was not only involved in initial talks with Russia following its February 2022 invasion, but who also survived a poisoning attack after a peace meeting in March that year. 

Rubio will meet with the delegation in the city of Jeddah around noon local time on Tuesday.

“The important point in this meeting is to establish clearly their intentions, their desire, as they’ve said publicly now, numerous times, to reach a point where peace is possible,” Rubio said, adding that he will need to be assured that Kyiv is prepared to make some hard decisions, like giving up territory seized by Russia, in order to end the three-year war. 

Ukraine's National Police said seven people are dead and five wounded in a mortar strike east of Kyiv, in Makariv. (National Police of Ukraine)

Ukraine’s National Police said seven people are dead and five wounded in a mortar strike east of Kyiv, in Makariv. (National Police of Ukraine)

“Both sides need to come to an understanding,” he said. “The Russians can’t conquer all of Ukraine, and obviously it will be very difficult for Ukraine, in any reasonable time period, to sort of force the Russians back all the way to where they were in 2014. So the only solution to this war is diplomacy and getting them to a table where that’s possible.

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 “Then we’ll have to determine how far they are from the Russian position, which we don’t know yet either. And then once you understand where both sides truly are, it gives you a sense of how big the divide is and how hard it’s going to be,” Rubio explained. “I’m hoping it’ll be a positive interaction along those lines.”

Rubio lands in Saudi Arabia

Secretary of State Marco Rubio greets well-wishers upon arrival at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah on March 10, 2025. (Saul Loeb/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

EU CHIEF DIPLOMAT WARNS TRUMP PUTIN ‘DOESN’T WANT PEACE’

Steve Witkoff, special envoy to the Middle East who has increasingly been involved with the talks regarding Ukraine and Russia, told Fox News’ Dana Perino on “America’s Newsroom” Monday morning, that the Trump administration has “gone a long way” to “narrow the differences” when dealing with Moscow and to get it to the negotiating table – though he did not go into detail. 

Witkoff suggested relations with Ukraine began to once again improve after Zelenskyy sent Trump a letter in which he apologized for the Oval Office exchange that went sour late last month after he refused to sign a mineral deal and angered the Trump administration – resulting in a series of explosive outbursts on live TV. 

While a mineral deal is unlikely to be achieved this week, according to Rubio, he said he hopes that with a successful meeting in Jeddah, he can secure the resumption of aid to Ukraine, though he did not detail if this would include the defensive aid the Trump administration halted, despite Russia’s continued bombardment against Ukrainian targets, or the intelligence sharing which the U.S. also stopped following the Oval Office showdown. 

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“The pause in aid broadly is something I hope we can resolve,” Rubio said. “I think what happens tomorrow will be key to that.”

Trump Zelensky

Trump and Zelensky were involved in an Oval Office shouting match. (Fox News )

Rubio also said that Russia will see its own consequences if it doesn’t agree to negotiate on ending the war in Ukraine, including additional sanctions. 

“It should be clear to everyone that the United States has tools available to also impose costs on the Russian side of this equation,” Rubio said. “But we hope it doesn’t come to that. 

“What we’re hoping is that both sides realize that this is not a conflict that can end by military means,” he added. 

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On Friday, in a posting on the Truth Social platform, Trump threatened Russia with “large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions and Tariffs,” until a ceasefire and peace settlement are reached.  

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French President Macron meets Moldovan counterpart Sandu for talks

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French President Macron meets Moldovan counterpart Sandu for talks

Sandu warmly thanked the French President, adding Moldova was open for business, which will not just profit France but all EU member states.

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French President Emmanuel Macron met his Moldovan counterpart Maia Sandu at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Monday evening. 

Macron reiterated French support for Moldova in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine as well as their accession bid to the European Union. 

Sandu told reporters that: “Russia breaks every promise. It pledged to withdraw its illegal troops from our territory by 2002. Never did. It cut off gas, violating its own supply contract.” 

“It imposes embargoes on Moldovan produce, ignoring trade agreements. It interfered in our elections, flouting basic bilateral principles. These aren’t isolated acts.” 

 She concluded by saying Moldova hopes to achieve EU membership by the end of the decade. ”EU accession is not just the destination. It is the path to a stronger country.” 

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Her arrival in Paris comes ahead of a Tuesday vote on a new €1.9 billion Reform and Growth Instrument for Moldova, to accelerate the country’s socio-economic reforms, strengthen its resilience and promote its integration into the EU through grants and low-interest loans.  

The European Parliament also said it will open an office in Moldova to further strengthen Parliament’s engagement in the Eastern Partnership region. 

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