World
Russia’s Brutal War Calculus
Two years of war have remade Russia.
Isolated from the West, it is now more dependent on China. Political repression is reminiscent of the grim days of the Soviet Union.
But Russia is not the economic shambles many in the West predicted when they imposed punishing sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. Many Russians are pulling down their highest incomes in years.
Russian society has been refashioned in ways that have devastated some and lifted others. While government critics languish in jail and young men die in trenches at the front, other Russians — especially those willing to spout the official line — are feeling more optimistic than ever.
Here is a look at how Russia at war has changed — suffering enormous costs by some metrics but faring better than expected by others.
Daily Life
People fled Russia in droves after the invasion and draft, more than 820,000, although some returned.
Alcoholics were diagnosed in higher numbers after more than a decade of steady declines.
Demand for psychologists increased by more than 60% in the first year of the war.
Traffic to Facebook and Instagram dropped after Russia blocked them, and use of Telegram and secure platforms like VPNs surged.
Travel abroad plummeted from pre-pandemic days.
But people are making higher wages as men deployed to the front reduce the ranks of workers back home.
And Russians are shelling out on new homes, helped by generous government subsidies.
Despite the ways that life has changed, many people say they feel positive about how President Vladimir Putin is doing. His popularity surged as the war began and is now at its highest level in seven years.
Questions remain about how honest people feel they can be in polls, given the risks. And polls have signaled, too, that a substantial number would like the war to end. But Mr. Putin has convinced many that in invading Ukraine, Russia is defending itself against an existential threat from the West.
The Economy
Mr. Putin went into the war with his financial house in order.
Government debt was low. Funds were stashed away. And a team of agile technocrats were on hand to fend off a crisis.
After an initial shock, the Russian system recovered, thanks in part to emergency financial measures, high oil prices and trade with China and India. Moscow also greatly increased state spending.
Collectively, Russia has created its own wartime economy.
Trade with Europe dropped by about 65% after Western sanctions.
Toyotas and VWs, once popular, disappeared from car assembly lines.
But trade with China, India and Turkey boomed.
By last year, Chinese cars made up six of the top 10 car brands in Russia.
The G.D.P. overall was driven up last year by an enormous war-related government stimulus.
Unemployment dropped.
And more than two-thirds of Russians say their economic well-being is the same or better.
But inflation shot up too.
The economy is now in danger of overheating. The mortgage subsidies could be fueling a housing bubble. And the market is still off-kilter in some sectors, with shortages of certain medicines, for example, and dramatic reductions in car production.
If oil prices plunge, Russia will struggle. If the military spending spree ends, all bets are off. Russia can sustain warfare in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, but its long-term economic future is in doubt.
Support for the War
For the moment, at least, the resilient economy has boosted Mr. Putin. And a campaign of propaganda and repression have allowed him to reign virtually unchallenged.
As nationalist songs top the charts — “I am Russian, out of spite to the whole world,” goes one — less attention is being paid to the news. And the government plans to spend $500 million on “patriotic education” this year, including for a goose-stepping “youth army.”
The percentage of people saying the country is moving in the right direction is the highest in decades, 71% last month.
Support for Russian military actions in Ukraine is even higher, though many Russians have indicated that they aren’t comfortable sharing their opinion about the war.
Repression of those opposing the war is widespread.
Treason convictions nearly tripled.
The war has accelerated a crackdown on the L.G.B.T.Q. community.
Soviet-style denunciations are back, as Russians report “unpatriotic” behavior by fellow citizens to the authorities.
Freedom of assembly has been obliterated, with nearly 20,000 Russians detained for their antiwar stance.
Independent journalists have been forced to flee, and many have been declared foreign agents.
Mr. Putin’s best-known critic, Aleksei A. Navalny, died after years of inhumane treatment in prison.
The number of prisoners in Russia has actually decreased dramatically.
But that’s primarily because many were recruited to fight, and often die, in Ukraine.
Blood and Treasure
In the early months of the war, Mr. Putin’s military made grave mistakes, but it has regrouped. Russia fended off a Western-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive and has taken the initiative on the front, buoyed by frozen American aid for Ukraine.
Still, Russia has sustained huge costs to get this far. It is far from controlling the four regions it claims to have annexed, let alone the rest of Ukraine, and Mr. Putin may need to carry out another draft.
He claims he would like to negotiate an end to the war, but skeptics see that as a ploy to undercut Western aid to Ukraine.
Moscow has made increasing gains in recent weeks. It now controls about 18 percent of Ukraine, up from 7 percent before the full-scale invasion.
But its control of Ukraine is down from the 27 percent Russian forces once occupied at their height.
The progress is coming at a higher cost. Military spending has eclipsed social spending at the federal level for the first time in Russia’s 32-year post-Soviet history. It makes up about a third of the national budget.
Some 60,000 Russians have been killed in the fighting, according to U.S. officials.
That’s two Russian soldiers for every square mile taken from Ukraine since the invasion.
The popularity of the war appears to ebb when it comes to support for the draft. Only 36% of Russians support another mobilization to replenish forces.
To replenish its ranks, Russia has been targeting prisons and poorer regions for recruits.
Soldiers in Ukraine are earning roughly three times the average Russian salary — and in many cases more. Compensation to families of soldiers who die in Ukraine can be more than $84,000, more than nine times the average annual Russian salary.
But despite their stated support for the war, many Russians would be happy for it to end. Half of Russians say they want to start peace talks.
People fleeing Russia: Re:Russia
Diagnoses of alcohol dependence in 2022: Rosstat Psychologist demand: Psychodemia, Alter, HeadHunter
Facebook, Instagram, Telegram and VPN use: Mediascope, AppMagic
Foreign travel: Russian Border Service, Association of Tour Operators
Patriotic education: Russian federal budget
Putin’s popularity: Levada Center Trade with Europe: Eurostat
Trade with China, India and Turkey: Bruegel
Russia’s well-being: NORC at the University of Chicago
Inflation: Bank of Russia People saying the country is moving in the right direction: Levada Center
Treason convictions, 2021 compared with 2023: Pervy Otdel, Supreme Court of Russia
Number of prisoners: Russian Ministry of Justice
Control of territory in Ukraine: Institute for the Study of War
Military spending: Russian Ministry of Finance War deaths: U.S. officials
Support for the draft: Russian Field
Support for peace talks: Levada Center
Sources
World
Oil prices rise anew after a US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz strands tankers
NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices rose in early trading Sunday as a standoff between Iran and the U.S. prevented tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway that is crucial to global energy supplies.
The price of U.S. crude oil increased 6.4% to $87.90 per barrel an hour after trading resumed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 5.8% to $95.64 per barrel.
The market reaction followed more than two days of lifted hopes and dashed expectations involving the strait. Crude prices plunged more than 9% Friday after Iran said it would fully reopen the strait, which it effectively controls, to commercial traffic.
Tehran reversed that decision and fired on several vessels Saturday after President Donald Trump said a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports would remain in effect. On Sunday, Trump said the U.S. attacked and forcibly seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that allegedly tried to get around the blockade. Iran’s joint military command vowed to respond.
Sunday’s higher prices wiped out much of the declines seen Friday, signaling renewed doubts about how soon ships will again transport the vast amounts oil the world gets from the Middle East.
The US-Israeli war against Iran, now in its eighth week, has created one of the worst global energy crises in decades. Countries in Asia and Europe that import much of their oil from the Gulf have felt the most impact of halted supplies and production cuts, although rapidly rising gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices are affecting businesses and consumers worldwide.
Asked when he thought U.S. motorists would again see gas cost less than $3 a gallon on average, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said prices at the pump might not go down that much until next year.
“But prices have likely peaked, and they’ll start going down,” Wright told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.
The price of crude oil — the main ingredient in gasoline — has fluctated dramatically since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and as Iran retaliated with airstrikes on other Gulf states. Crude traded at roughly $70 a barrel before the conflict, spiked to more than $119 at times, and previously closed Friday at $82.59 for U.S. oil and $90.38 for Brent.
Industry analysts have repeatedly warned that the longer the strait is closed, the worse prices could get.
A fragile, two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire Wednesday, while escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz puts the fate of new talks to end the war into question.
Even if a lasting deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz emerges, analysts say it could take months for oil shipments to return to normal levels and for fuel prices to go down. Backed-up tanker traffic, shipowners concerned about another sudden escalation, and energy infrastructure damaged during the war are factors that could impede production and shipment volumes from returning to pre-war levels.
A gallon of regular gas cost an average of nearly $4.05 a gallon in the U.S. on Sunday, according to motor club federation AAA. That’s about 8 cents lower than a week ago, but far higher than $2.98 before the war.
World
Distress call captures tanker under fire, Iran shuts Hormuz trapping thousands of sailors
Trump warns Iran it ‘can’t blackmail’ US with Hormuz closure
Fox News reports on heightened tensions in the Middle East as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reaffirms strict control over the Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships. President Donald Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, states the US naval blockade will remain in full force. White House correspondent Alex Hogan provides updates on the escalating diplomatic and military standoff.
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Hundreds of commercial tankers are stranded on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran shut the critical chokepoint on April 18, halting traffic and leaving crews trapped amid reports of gunfire and “traumatic experiences” on board.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered an international waterway under international law, through which ships have the right of transit passage, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint for global energy markets, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said Iranian gunboats opened fire on a tanker the same day, while a projectile struck a container vessel, damaging cargo.
STARMER AND MACRON ACCUSED OF ‘PLAYING AT BEING RELEVANT’ WITH STRAIT OF HORMUZ PLAN
U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that “U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are among the assets executing a blockade mission impacting Iranian ports.” (CENTCOM)
Audio released by maritime monitoring group TankerTrackers appears to capture the moment a vessel and its crew came under fire while approaching the strait, including a distress call from a crew member.
“Sepah Navy! Motor tanker Sanmar Herald! You gave me clearance to go… you are firing now. Let me turn back!” the crew member can be heard saying in the recording, according to TankerTrackers.
Iranian state media confirmed that shots were fired near vessels to force them to turn back, while the Ministry of External Affairs of the Government of India said the foreign secretary was deeply concerned.
Hapag-Lloyd, the world’s fifth-largest container shipping line, told Fox News Digital that it had activated a crisis team as its crews remain stuck on board vessels in the region.
“We have been working from Friday afternoon until today with the entire crisis team to bring the vessels out — in vain, unfortunately,” said Nils Haupt, senior director of group communications at Hapag-Lloyd AG.
“These events can easily lead to traumatic experiences. There is also a significant risk from sea mines, which has made insuring vessels for passage through the Strait nearly impossible.”
LISA DAFTARI: HORMUZ WHIPLASH PROVES TEHRAN CAN’T HONOR ANY DEAL IT SIGNS
“The crews are well, but they are becoming increasingly impatient and frustrated. It is very unfortunate that we could not leave today,” he added. “Many ships are still stuck in the Persian Gulf.”
“Our six ships are anchored near the port of Dubai, and all crews hope for an improvement in the situation,” Haupt said.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on April 18 that the strait would remain closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, warning ships not to move from anchorage or risk being treated as “enemy” collaborators.
Iran has previously argued that restrictions on its oil exports and shipping amount to “economic warfare,” framing actions in the Strait of Hormuz as a response to foreign pressure on its economy, according to statements from Iranian officials and state media in past incidents.
“Approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and any violating vessel will be targeted,” the IRGC said in a statement carried by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency.
TRUMP ORDERS A BLOCKADE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS TENSIONS WITH IRAN SOAR
Fishing boats dot the sea as cargo ships, in the background, sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz off the United Arab Emirates, Friday, March 27, 2026. (AP Photo)
The United States imposed the blockade on Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the strait, with U.S. Central Command saying the measures are being enforced “impartially against all vessels.”
Hapag-Lloyd said its vessels have been stuck for weeks following the initial closure after the outbreak of war with Iran on Feb. 28.
“For us, it is critical that our vessels can pass through the strait soon,” Haupt said.
“We offer all crew members unlimited data so they can video call loved ones and access entertainment. Crews are strong, but after weeks on board there is growing monotony and frustration.”
“One crew experienced a fire on board from bomb fragments. Others have seen missiles or drones near their vessels,” he added.
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“They are resilient, but each additional day makes the situation more difficult, more monotonous, and more stressful.”
President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed not to close the strait again but after the closure, Trump called the situation “blackmail” and said the U.S. would not back down.
World
Schools, shops shut in northern Israel to protest the Lebanon ceasefire
Shops and schools shut in northern Israel as residents protested a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon that took effect on April 16, saying “nothing was achieved”. Israeli officials say operations may continue, with forces still deployed inside southern Lebanon.
Published On 19 Apr 2026
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