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NATO did not ‘create incentive’ for Putin to stop Ukraine war

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NATO did not ‘create incentive’ for Putin to stop Ukraine war

When Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda outlined his expectations ahead of this year’s NATO summit, he said he wanted the event to be remembered as the “summit of decisions – not just declarations”.

After two days of intense discussions and bilateral negotiations in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, leaders of the world’s largest military alliance made some big decisions, ranging from backing Sweden’s NATO membership to pledging security guarantees for war-torn Ukraine.

But when it came to the question of Ukraine’s NATO membership, the alliance decided it was not the right moment to invite Ukraine to join.

“We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met,” NATO leaders said in a declaration.

“We reaffirm the commitment we made at the 2008 Summit in Bucharest that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, and today we recognise that Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has moved beyond the need for the Membership Action Plan,” the NATO leaders said.

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According to Bruno Lete, security and defence expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) in Brussels, while the declaration expresses strong and continued support for Ukraine, “NATO remains vague about the issue.”

“NATO is clearly deepening its relations with Kyiv, but regarding membership, the Vilnius Declaration gives little more reason for enthusiasm than the 2008 Bucharest Declaration did,” he told Al Jazeera.

“It positions NATO in such a way where in the future the alliance can choose to give Ukraine membership, or if necessary use Ukraine’s membership as a bargaining chip vis-à-vis Russia,” he said, noting that this would leave Kyiv disappointed.

While there has been broad consensus among NATO members about supporting Ukraine militarily at the NATO summit, the issue of setting a timeline for Kyiv’s membership remains divisive.

Some nations, including the US and Germany, have been wary that allowing Kyiv into the military alliance amid a war would also drag NATO into the battlefield with Russia — an outcome they want to avoid.

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Meanwhile, eastern European nations and Poland, which have been among Ukraine’s most vocal supporters, continued to push for Kyiv’s membership.

Before he arrived at the summit on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said NATO’s stance on Kyiv’s membership was “absurd” in a rare public show of anger towards the alliance.

But after meeting with NATO leaders in Lithuania, the Ukrainian leader softened his tone and said in a tweet that Ukraine understood it “cannot become a member of NATO while the war is ongoing. But then it will be our common strength when Ukraine joins the Alliance.”

In a press briefing in Vilnius alongside NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Zelenskyy said that “getting an invitation” at the summit would still have been “ideal” and acted as “a technical signal” in the face of Russian aggression.

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‘Security victory’ for Ukraine

Meanwhile, NATO chief Stoltenberg continued to reaffirm to Zelenskyy that the country would become a member of the alliance in the future and told the Ukrainian president that he was looking forward to the day they “meet as allies”.

Stoltenberg also highlighted that it was important for Ukraine to receive strong security guarantees as it continues to fight against the Russian invasion.

After the summit, NATO members and the Group of Seven (G7) bloc of nations pledged to send new defence packages and missiles to Ukraine, which they said were part of long-term security assistance.

Zelenskyy hailed the new defence packages and said “The Ukrainian delegation is bringing home a security victory for Ukraine.”

He also welcomed the opening of the NATO-Ukraine Council and said it would give Ukraine the “necessary institutional certainty” on Kyiv’s NATO membership pathway.

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, right, and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, right, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shake hands after addressing a media conference during a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania [Mindaugas Kulbis/AP]

According to Stoltenberg, the council would act like a consultation mechanism between NATO members and Ukraine, whereby if Kyiv feels threatened, specific issues could be instantly discussed and decided by the council, bringing Ukraine closer to the alliance.

“This council will be a place where allies in Ukraine will jointly advance Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO,” said Harry Nedelcu, geopolitics director at Rasmussen Global and leader of its Ukraine Advisory Service, told Al Jazeera.

“But what would have been really a step forward, would be if this NATO-Ukraine Council was the body which could actually clearly set out the steps and assess the conditions that Ukraine would have to fulfil to become a member,”

“Basically all these questions are being left for another day and are being kicked down the road for the NATO summit in Washington next year,” Nedelcu said.

“The security guarantees for Ukraine are an interim solution to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia. But if this NATO summit was supposed to send a strong message to Russia’s [President Vladimir] Putin that the alliance is here to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, the glass is still half empty with no clear timeline for Kyiv’s membership.

“This does not create an incentive for Putin to stop the war,” Nedelcu said.

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How has the Kremlin reacted?

In an interview with Al Jazeera on Tuesday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova suggested that NATO was not extending an invite to Ukraine since some NATO nations like Poland considered western Ukraine part of its territory and intended to invade the region. She provided no evidence for the claim, which has been promoted without evidence by other Russian officials in the past.

She also said NATO was already at war with Russia because of its support for Ukraine militarily.

Lete rejected the claim and said NATO had not joined the war.

“Russia is falsely claiming it is fighting a war against all of NATO to justify to its own citizens the disastrous military campaign in Ukraine,” Lete said.

“Clearly, NATO has not violated Russian territory, nor has any ally fired a single shot at Russia. It’s therefore false to argue that the alliance is engaging in war,” he added.

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After NATO and the G7 announced new defence packages for Ukraine, the Kremlin also warned that more security guarantees to Ukraine would be “dangerous” and infringe on Russia’s security.

Zakharova
Maria Zakharova [Screengrab/Al:Jazeera]

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters it was an ideal time for Moscow to maintain good relations with Beijing and said that “a visit to China” was on the Russian president’s agenda.

China has not condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and it also downplayed the recent, short-lived Wagner Group rebellion.

At their meeting in Lithuania, NATO leaders said, “The deepening strategic partnership between the People’s Republic of China and Russia and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based international order run counter to our values and interests.”

They also called on China to condemn Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and abstain from supporting Russia’s war effort in any way.

China’s European Affairs Director-General Wang Lutong said in a tweet that NATO’s accusations about China were “false”.

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“They are purely driven by the Cold War mentality and ideological bias,” he said.

Turkey and Sweden secure wins

In addition to bolstering support for Ukraine, NATO members also fortified the alliance’s Baltic borders by giving Sweden the green light to join NATO.

Turkey and Hungary, which held up Sweden’s NATO accession for more than a year, agreed to let Sweden join.

Stoltenberg hailed the agreement on Sweden’s accession as “a historic step”.

But for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, backing Sweden’s NATO membership has appeared transactional.

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Erdoğan had repeatedly said that he would approve Sweden’s NATO membership only if Stockholm dealt with Ankara’s “security concerns”, which included demands to expel members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey has declared a “terrorist” organisation, and members of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD).

But on the eve of the military alliance’s summit, the Turkish president added another condition for Sweden’s NATO membership, saying he would approve Sweden’s accession if the European Union relaunched the long-stalled talks of Ankara’s EU membership.

After holding bilateral talks with Turkey in Lithuania on the eve of the NATO summit, European Council President Charles Michel said the 27-member bloc would cooperate with Ankara to discuss its EU membership. Sweden also said it would support Turkey’s EU membership.

“As a master of brinkmanship, Erdoğan dropped his veto when he assessed that the risks associated with continuing the veto had begun to outweigh the potential additional benefits,” Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of GMF’s office in Ankara, Turkey, told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, Turkey also expressed support for Ukraine’s NATO membership in the long run.

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Unluhisarcikli said that these actions “won’t go unnoticed by Russia”.

“Turkey always had a pro-Kyiv, but not anti-Russia approach. But Erdoğan’s measured approach to the Wagner mutiny in Russia, returning Azov Battalion commanders to Ukraine, and reasserting support to Ukraine’s NATO membership against Sweden’s accession to NATO within three weeks will not go unnoticed by Russia,” he said.

“Because of these developments, Moscow may come to see Turkey as a less reliable facilitator and mediator,” Unluhisarcikli noted. “On the other hand, Russia does not have too many other alternatives to its relationship with Turkey.”

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Asif Kapadia on Taking Aim at the Rich and Powerful in Dystopian Docudrama ‘2073’: ‘If I Don’t Work Again, at Least I Made This Movie’

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Asif Kapadia on Taking Aim at the Rich and Powerful in Dystopian Docudrama ‘2073’: ‘If I Don’t Work Again, at Least I Made This Movie’

Asif Kapadia sees a future vision of the world where “chairwoman” Ivanka Trump is celebrating her 30th year as leader of a nightmarish fascist police state that was once America, a land mostly reduced to rubble following an unknown “catastrophe” that occurred in 2036. 

“It’s kind of a joke, but it’s also not a joke,” says the British filmmaker of mentioning Donald Trump’s daughter in “2073,” his chilling docudrama about the dystopia humanity is potentially hurtling towards and the very real and very contemporary factors concerning politics, the environment, corruption, race and technology that he says are propelling us in that direction. 

“Because if you look at American politics, you have certain families that just keep being in power — the number of people that have come from a tiny gene pool is insane,” he says.

While the inclusion of Ivanka may be a little splash of humor, the rest of “2073” — which comes backed by Neon, Double Agent and Film4 and is world premiering in Venice on Tuesday — offers little else to be tickled by. The film is what Kapadia says is his response to the world — and the entertainment industry — having got to a “place where people cannot say anything” that criticizes the status quo or those in power without risking losing their jobs or worse. 

And so “2073” says a lot, a whole lot. The film essentially lays the blame for the impending disaster — be it nuclear war, climate change or whatever it might be — at the foot of leaders, demagogues, tech billionaires and the 1% and what they’re doing to the planet and society. Alongside the Trumps, there’s the Murdochs, Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu, Xi Jinping, Mohammed Bin Salman, Narendra Modi, the Koch brothers, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Peter Thiel and many more, spliced alongside news clips and amateur footage from the last couple of decades showing examples of police brutality, rising fascism, the refugee crisis, mass detentions, bombings and wild fires. 

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Originally the project — which came about during lockdown (Kapadia put out a tweet asking for help and soon gathered a team of researchers from around the world) — was to be a “doc set in the future where everything from the future will be factual and created out of bits of the present.” But he soon decided to use his drama background to mix the two, creating a version of life in 2073 in which Samantha Morton plays a mute survivor besieged by nightmare visions of the past and living underground as surveillance drones patrol the surface.

This past is pieced together using “footage from around 60 different countries, which I made to look like one place,” says Kapadia. Some of footage is extremely recent. In the opening scenes revealing this earth-shattering catastrophe, we see clips of recent devastation in Gaza. 

“Having been doing this for a while, if you feel like you’re onto something in a horrible way, the world comes into synch with the film,” he says. The war in Gaza, plus the rise of AI and the growing feeling that the next presidential election could be “the end of democracy in the U.S.” all began after he started making the film. “And then a few weeks ago in England we had all these riots.”

“2073” may seem like an unexpected feature from the Oscar-winning documentarian best-known for “Amy,” “Senna” and “Diego Maradona,” but he claims this trilogy of profiles all came about “by accident,” and were each infused with his previous experience in drama and fiction and were each made that way. “’Senna’ is an action movie, ‘Amy’ is a musical, a Bollywood film, and ‘Diego Maradona’ is a gangster film set in Naples,” he says. 

But “2073” — an experimental dystopian thriller — still feels like a major key change for the director, a highly provocative and uncomfortable to watch feature with global themes that he hopes will make people realize that “what’s happening over there will get closer and closer and eventually come to you.” 

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As he notes: “And if you don’t think that’s a problem, then it’s just a movie. But if it is a problem, then you, me, us … we’ve got to do something.”

Kapadia is already among the most outspoken filmmakers on social media when it comes to discussing politics and especially in condemning Israel for the bloodshed in Gaza. While this hasn’t appeared to have hindered his career in the way it has others, he says “2073” — given the topics and the very powerful, very wealthy people it discusses — might. 

 “I’ve been lucky enough to have made films and in what I do I’ve been successful,” he explains. “So honestly, I went into this going, ‘I’m going to chuck it all in, I’m not going to be afraid to say what I see and if I don’t work again, fine, at least I made this movie.’ ”

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Two U.S. soldiers ambushed, assaulted by mob of Turkish nationalists: 'Yankee, go home!'

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Two U.S. soldiers ambushed, assaulted by mob of Turkish nationalists: 'Yankee, go home!'

A mob of Turkish nationalists attacked U.S. soldiers in western Turkey on Monday, resulting in the arrests of 15 people.

The incident took place in Izmir, which is located on Turkey’s Aegean coast. In a statement, the Izmir governor’s office said the assailants belonged to the Youth Union of Turkey, which is connected to the nationalist Vatan Party.

The governor said that the victims, who were assigned to the USS Wasp, were “physically attacked.” Video posted to social media showed soldiers in civilian clothing yelling for help as they were restrained by a group of anti-American men.

The footage also shows an attacker throwing a plastic bag onto the soldier’s head as the crowd chanted, “Yankee Go Home!”

ISRAEL SHARES DOSSIER SPELLING OUT ALLEGATIONS AGAINST 12 UN EMPLOYEES ALLEGEDLY INVOLVED IN HAMAS ATTACK

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Soldiers assigned to the USS Wasp were attacked by Turkish nationalists, according to officials. (Getty Images/iStock)

Five U.S. soldiers intervened during the incident, and authorities eventually arrested all 15 of the men who attacked the soldiers.

The U.S. Embassy in Turkey confirmed the incident in a statement published to social media on Monday, and said that the soldiers are safe.

“We can confirm reports that U.S. service members embarked aboard the USS Wasp were the victims of an assault in İzmir today, and are now safe,” the embassy said.

UN, HUMAN RIGHTS, MEDIA GROUPS RELY ON HAMAS DEATH TOLL IN ‘SYSTEMATIC DECEPTION’: EXPERT

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USS Wasp

Crew members stand aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp (LHD-1) docked at Limassol Port, amid rising tensions in the Middle East, in Limassol, Cyprus, Sunday, August 11, 2024. (Danil Shamkin/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

“We thank Turkish authorities for their rapid response and ongoing investigation.”

In a statement obtained by Reuters, the Youth Union of Turkey said the attack was “deserved” and criticized U.S. support of Israel.

Turkish protesters

 Members of the Youth Union of Turkey (TGB) gather outside the U.S. Embassy to protest envoys of 10 countries over remarks on the Osman Kavala case in Ankara, Turkey on October 25, 2021.  (Evrim Aydin/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

“U.S. soldiers who carry the blood of our soldiers and thousands of Palestinians on their hands cannot dirty our country,” the nationalists said. “Every time you step foot in these lands, we will meet you the way you deserve.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

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Hamas says Gaza captives will return ‘in coffins’ if Israel continues raids

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Hamas says Gaza captives will return ‘in coffins’ if Israel continues raids

Group’s armed wing Qassam Brigades issues statement, two days after bodies of six captives are recovered from a Gaza tunnel by Israeli forces.

The armed wing of the Palestinian group Hamas says captives held in Gaza would return to Israel “in coffins” if Israeli military pressure continues, warning that “new instructions” had been given to its fighters guarding the captives in case Israeli troops approach.

“[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s insistence on freeing the captives through military pressure instead of reaching a deal means they will go back to their families in coffins. Their families have to choose between receiving them dead or alive,” Abu Obeida, spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, said in a statement on Monday, two days after the bodies of six captives were recovered by Israel.

“Netanyahu and the army are fully responsible for the death of the captives after they intentionally hindered any prisoners’ exchange deal,” it said.

The statement from the Qassam Brigades came shortly after Netanyahu said the six captives whose bodies were recovered from a tunnel in southern Gaza’s Rafah area had been “executed” by Hamas.

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“I ask for your forgiveness for not bringing them back alive,” Netanyahu said during a televised news conference earlier on Monday as protests over the deaths continued for a second day in Israel.

“We were close, but we didn’t succeed. Hamas will pay a very heavy price for this,” he added.

Senior Hamas official Izzat al-Risheq said the six captives were killed in Israeli air strikes.

Families and supporters of Israeli captives held by Hamas in Gaza since October 7 hold a rally calling for their release in Tel Aviv on September 2, 2024 [Jack Guez/AFP]

Meanwhile, protests in Israel over the deaths of the captives continued with angry demonstrators saying they could have been returned alive if Netanyahu’s government had signed a ceasefire with Hamas.

However, political analyst Akiva Eldar told Al Jazeera that a nationwide strike in Israel on Monday and rising public anger will not make a real difference to end the war in Gaza and free the captives.

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“It seems that for Netanyahu, the alternative – which is his personal, political and personal life – is more important than the lives of the Israeli captives,” Eldar said, adding that despite a large number of protesters, “the Israeli right and radical right” who support the government “have the upper hand”.

“The government and the prime minister are now on the defensive,” Ori Goldberg, an expert on Israeli politics, told Al Jazeera. “This is about momentum now.”

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden also said Netanyahu was not doing enough to secure a deal for the release of the captives.

Speaking to reporters at the White House on Monday, Biden was asked whether he thought Netanyahu was doing enough to reach a deal. Biden said, “No.” He did not elaborate.

Months of stop-start negotiations mediated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt have so far failed to reach an accord on a Gaza ceasefire proposal laid out by Biden in May.

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Hamas wants an agreement to end the war and get Israeli forces out of Gaza while Netanyahu says the war can only end once Hamas is defeated.

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador and government adviser, told Al Jazeera that it is Netanyahu who “absolutely has no interest in a hostage deal or ceasefire”.

“Those who are shocked and devastated and angered about what happened should not be surprised because this is exactly what the [Israeli] defence minister [Yoav Gallant] and all of us were warning would happen,” Pinkas said.

“His [Netanyahu’s] and only his reluctance to engage in a deal is what made all this happen.”

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