Trump’s Trade War

While Mr. Trump pulled back from his initial threat of tariffs on everything imported from Canada, he has imposed several measures that hit key sectors of Canada’s economy: a 25 percent tariff on automobiles, aluminum and steel, and a similar one on Canadian exports that do not qualify as North American goods under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which he signed during his first term in office. An auto parts tariff of 25 percent is scheduled to take effect on Saturday.

Last week, Mr. Trump suggested that the automobile tariffs, which are reduced based on their U.S.-made content, could be increased. He offered no specifics.

Autos and auto parts are Canada’s largest exports to the United States, outside oil and gas.

Canada Hits Back

Under Mr. Trudeau, Canada placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods coming into Canada that are expected to generate 30 billion Canadian dollars, about $22 billion, in revenue over a year.

After becoming prime minister in March, Mark Carney imposed an additional 8 billion Canadian dollars, about $5.7 billion, in tariffs, including a 25 percent levy on autos made in the United States — but not on auto parts. Automakers with assembly lines in Canada will still largely be able to bring in American-made cars of those brands duty free.

The Canadian public has responded, too. Travel to the United States has declined sharply. Government-owned liquor stores in several provinces removed American beer, wine and whiskey from their shelves. As calls for boycotts of American products grew, Canadian manufacturers hurried to adorn their packaging with maple leaves and Canadian flags.

How to Handle Trump

Both Mr. Carney, who also succeeded Mr. Trudeau as the Liberal Party leader, and Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader and the other major contender in the election, have adopted a hard line when it comes to the U.S. president.

In a conversation with Mr. Trump, in March, Mr. Carney said that the president had agreed to begin economic and security negotiations with whoever emerges as prime minister. During those talks, Mr. Carney said during a televised debate, “the starting point has to be one of strength.”

He added: “It has to show that we have control of our own economic destiny.”

Throughout the campaign, Mr. Carney, who was a governor of the Bank of Canada and later of the Bank of England, has sought to emphasize that his background in the financial world makes him the ideal candidate to tackle both Mr. Trump and the economic challenges his tariffs pose.

When asked how he will deal with Mr. Trump, Mr. Poilievre, a lifelong politician, usually responds by saying that he will first tackle what he views as problems the Liberals have created within Canada.

“I would cut taxes, red tape and approve our resource projects so that we can get our goods to market and bring home the jobs so we can stand up to President Trump from a position of strength,” he said during the debate.

The Crisis Will Probably Get Worse

Mr. Trump’s auto tariffs had an immediate impact. A factory in Windsor, Ontario, where Stellantis makes Chrysler minivans and Dodge muscle cars, was shut down for two weeks while the company considered its options. The association of auto parts makers said that its members had already laid off several thousand workers in Ontario.

There have also been a small number of layoffs in the steel industry.

The threatened tariff on auto parts may have a profound effect. Auto parts makers employ more people than the automakers’ assembly lines. Many parts companies are small, sometimes family-owned businesses without the financial resilience of multinational car manufacturers.

Economic Ideas, but Few Details

Both leaders, but Mr. Poilievre in particular, have promoted the construction of oil and gas pipelines to make it easier to ship fuel to Europe. They have not offered any specifics about what companies, if any, are interested in those projects or how they would be financed.

Mr. Poilievre also said he would accelerate environmental reviews and consultations with Indigenous groups for natural resource projects. Environmental groups and Indigenous leaders have criticized the proposal and questioned its legality.

For the auto sector, Mr. Carney has proposed to create an “all-in-Canada” system in which cars are assembled in Canada using Canadian parts made from Canadian steel and aluminum. He has not said how he would persuade automakers to go along with the plan.

Mr. Carney has also promised to set aside 2 billion Canadian dollars to help the auto industry adjust to U.S. tariffs and vowed that the money collected from retaliatory tariffs would be used to help companies and workers disrupted by the trade war. He has not specified what that help would involve.

Thousands of people participated in a march against Ireland’s mass migration policies in the country’s capital of Dublin on Saturday. 

UFC champion Conor McGregor – who is considering a potential presidential bid in his native Ireland – posted a video message beforehand from Dublin’s Garden of Remembrance, where the march began hours later. 

“Hello everyone in Ireland. April 26th, 2025 – A big day here for our country. “A historic month for Ireland since 1916,” McGregor said, referring to the recent anniversary of the Easter Rising against British rule. 

“Over 100 years ago, our brave men and women made the ultimate sacrifice so that we could live free today. So let us remind ourselves why we are here. And also why we are not here,” McGregor said. “We are not here to build hatred amongst each other. We are not here to sow division. We are here to commemorate the valiant heroes who went before us. We honor their spirit, we honor their fight.” 

CONOR MCGREGOR URGES IRELAND CITIZENS TO VOTE HIM AS COUNTRY’S PRESIDENT AFTER MEETING WITH TRUMP

McGregor said the protest would be intended “to shine our light on the failure of Ireland’s government and our full disapproval of it.” 

“Be respectful, be proud, be united,” McGregor said. “Because together, we will be heard, and as one, we will be victorious in our mission. To those leading their march and speaking for the tens of thousands standing behind you: be calm, be clear.”

“Speak with dignity – we want to hear your voice. Together we rise, together we win,” he added. “God bless us all. God bless Ireland.”

The large-scale demonstration kicked off on Saturday afternoon in the garden, as crowds carrying tri-color flags headed down O’Connell Street. 

Some protesters carried placards reading “Irish Lives Matter” and “Ireland is Full,” and many wore green hats with the message “Make Ireland Great Again.” 

Irish police, known as gardaí, showed a heightened presence in the capital, maintaining a cordoned-off line between the marchers and a smaller group of counter-protesters who gathered in front of the General Post Office (GPO). 

“Over 106,000 Irish men, women and children attended yesterday’s rally,” McGregor wrote on X Sunday, sharing aerial photos of protesters waving tri-color flags. “Not one social order incident to report. Tremendous! Onward for Ireland!”

Police later said “no major incidents” happened Saturday, though three people had been arrested for “public order offenses,” according to the Irish public broadcaster RTE. Police declined to provide additional information. 

The counter-protest was organized by United Against Racism and was backed by members of opposition parties including Sinn Féin, Labor, People Before Profit, the Social Democrats, the Socialist Party and the Green Party, according to The Irish Times.

AMERICA CELEBRATES IRISH CULTURE AND POLITICS ON ST. PATRICK’S DAY

They held banners that read, “Boycott Apartheid Israel” and “Dublin Stands Against Racism,” according to photos from the scene. 

Gardai on duty near a counter-protest at the GPO on Saturday April 26, 2025.  (Conor O Mearain/PA Images via Getty Images)

McGregor first announced his interest in running for president of Ireland after meeting with President Donald Trump on St. Patrick’s Day, though the fighter has suggested the country’s nomination process is stacked against outsiders like himself. 

Those who spoke at the march included Dublin City councilors Gavin Pepper, Philip Sutcliffe and Malachy Steenson and Fingal councilor Patrick Quinlan, according to Breakingnews.ie.

“The fact of the matter is we’re bringing in thousands and thousands of people and putting them up in hotels while our own people are being left to rot… We’ve had enough of this in Ireland,” Pepper said to a cheering Dublin crowd, according to a video shared on X. “Irish people come first in our own country. It’s time for mass deportation. The traitors of Sinn Féin do not care.” 

The prime minister of Ireland, who holds the title of taoiseach, Micheál Martin, told reporters on Sunday that he did not “accept the negativity from those who spoke yesterday in respect of where modern Ireland is today,” according to a video shared online by Susanne Delaney, a contributor to the anti-globalist outlet Irish Inquiry. 

“The level of opportunity in modern Ireland today again is far in excess of anything previous generations experienced in terms of educational completion and so on,” Martin, who also met with Trump in the Oval Office earlier in March, said. “The big social issue of our day is housing, but we’re focused on solutions to that and less so on the rhetoric of it.” 

Asked about the growing size of the “Irish nationalist” movement, Martin said the “ballot box is the key metric, the key determinant of the organization of society, who gets elected into government, who gets elected into local councils.” 

“And I think it has to be based on ideas and policies,” he said. “We believe we have a stronger set of ideas than perhaps those who articulated yesterday.” 

After United States President Donald Trump suspended his “reciprocal tariffs” on major US trading partners on April 9, he ramped them up on China’s goods. US trade levies on most imports from China have climbed to 145 percent. Beijing retaliated with duties of its own, at 125 percent on US goods.

Trump has long accused China of exploiting the US on trade, casting his tariffs as necessary to revive domestic manufacturing and reshore jobs back to the US. He also wants to use tariffs to finance tax cuts. Most economists remain sceptical Trump will achieve his aims.

For now, the US and China are locked in a high-stakes game of chicken. The world is waiting to see which country will yield and which will stay the course. As Trump nears his first 100 days in office for the second time, here’s where the tariff war with China stands:

What’s happening with negotiations?

Trump recently played up the possibility of securing a trade deal with China. Last week, the US president said his tariffs on China will “come down substantially” in the near future.

“We’re going to have a fair deal with China,” Trump told reporters on April 23, stirring hopes of a de-escalation. He also said his administration was “actively” negotiating with the Chinese side without elaborating.

On April 24, however, China’s Ministry of Commerce rebuffed president Trump’s remarks, saying there were no talks taking place between the two countries.

“Any claims about the progress of China-US economic and trade negotiations are groundless and have no factual basis,” ministry spokesman He Yadong said.

While he insisted that Beijing won’t duck any economic blows from Washington, he also said the door was “wide open” for talks.

Last week, the Reuters news agency reported that China was evaluating exemptions for select US imports – a list of up to 131 products.

Beijing has not made any public statement on the issue.

Has the tariff war impacted US exports?

Trump introduced his sweeping tariffs on China less than three weeks ago. The fallout for US businesses won’t be fully felt until later this year. Still, the warning signals are already flashing red.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that exports of soya beans – the biggest US farm export – fell dramatically for the period April 11-17, the first full week of reporting since Trump’s China tariff announcement.

By April 17, net sales of US soya beans dropped by 50 percent compared with the previous week. That was driven by a 67 percent fall in weekly soya bean exports to China, which, until recently, was America’s biggest export destination for the legume.

According to Piergiuseppe Fortunato, an adjunct professor of economics at the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, “China’s retaliatory tariffs will hit US farmers hard. Some may go out of business.” He added that all sectors with exposure to China would come under strain.

In 2023, the US exported roughly $15bn of oil, gas and coal to China. Losing that market would hit US energy firms.

Are imports to the US going to take a hit?

Since the start of Trump’s tariff war, cargo shipments have plummeted. According to Linerlytica, a shipping data provider, Chinese freight bookings bound for the US fell by 30 to 60 percent in April.

The drastic reduction in shipping from America’s third largest trading partner – after Canada and Mexico – has not yet been felt. In May, however, thousands of companies will need to restock their inventories.

According to Bloomberg News, retail giants Walmart and Target told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices from next month. They also warned that supply shocks could roll out to Christmas.

Electronic appliances, such as TV sets and washing machines, made up 46.4 percent of US imports from China in 2022. The US also imports a lot of its clothing and pharmaceutical product ingredients from China. The price of these goods will begin to rise from next month.

On April 22, the International Monetary Fund raised its US inflation forecast to 3 percent in 2025, owing to tariffs – a full 1 percentage point higher than in January. The lender also lowered its US economic growth forecast and raised its expectation that the US will tip into recession this year.

How will China’s economy be affected?

Despite growing tensions between the US and China, Washington and Beijing remain major trading partners.

According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported $438.9bn in Chinese goods last year.

That amounts to roughly 3 percent of China’s total economic output, which remains heavily reliant on exports.

In a report shared with its clients this month, Goldman Sachs said it expects Trump’s tariffs to drag down China’s gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 2.4 percentage points.

For their part, China’s top officials said the country can do without American farm and energy imports and promised to achieve a 5 percent GDP growth target for this year.

Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that together with non-US imports, domestic farm and energy production would be enough to satisfy demand.

“Even if we do not purchase feed grains and oilseeds from the United States, it will not have much impact on our country’s grain supply,” Zhao said on Monday.

He also noted there would be limited impact on China’s energy supplies if companies stopped importing US fossil fuels.

In some ways, experts said, China has been preparing for this crisis.

Fortunato told Al Jazeera: “The US is one of China’s biggest export markets, so tariffs will slow GDP growth. But Beijing has played this smartly as it began diversifying its imports away from the US during the first Trump trade war” in 2018.

He also pointed out that “the US depends on China for up to 60 percent of its critical mineral imports, used in everything from clean energy to military technology. The opposite flow simply isn’t there, so the US is more vulnerable.”

Could the US lose its geopolitical standing?

Trump has made little secret of his wish to conscript US allies into a trade war. The administration said it aims to strike free trade deals with the European Union, Great Britain and Japan.

More generally, reports suggest that Washington is asking trade partners to loosen their economic ties with China as a pre-condition for securing relief from Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.

Nevertheless, US allies seem largely opposed to any economic showdown with China. Last week, the European Commission said it has no intention of “decoupling” from China.

Elsewhere, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves recently told the Daily Telegraph newspaper: “China is the second biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish to not engage.”

Many countries are not in a position to abandon their trade ties with Beijing. The EU, in particular, has a huge trade deficit with China. Cutting off access to Chinese goods – both consumer products and inputs for industry – would bruise its already sluggish economy.

Across the developing world, China’s trade role is equally as crucial. Roughly a quarter of Bangladesh’s and Cambodia’s imports come from China. Nigeria and Saudi Arabia are similarly dependent on Beijing for their goods imports.

“It’s hard to see why countries would want to undermine their own business interests to try and reduce America’s trade deficit with China,” Fortunato said. “On this point, I think Trump has been short-sighted and may be forced to blink first on lowering tariffs with China.”

Is Trump losing his grip on Republican voters?

The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t need to worry about its next election cycle. Trump’s Republican Party does, so Beijing has the political upper hand in Trump’s trade war. Simply put, it has more time on its side.

For Trump’s party, his sabre rattling already looks politically costly. A new Economist-YouGov poll shows Americans reporting Trump’s economic actions have hurt them personally more than they’ve helped by a 30-point margin.

And public approval of the president’s economic management has been low for a while: It had fallen to 37 percent in a Reuters-Ipsos poll published on March 31, his lowest score ever in that survey.

If Trump stays the course, it is likely that his approval ratings might fall still lower, jeopardising the Republican Party’s fragile grip on the US House of Representatives – and possibly the Senate, experts said.

“For these reasons”, Fortunato said, “China does not feel compelled to rush to the negotiating table to secure a trade deal. That will probably fall to Trump.”