World
Trump-China tariff war: Who’s winning so far?
After United States President Donald Trump suspended his “reciprocal tariffs” on major US trading partners on April 9, he ramped them up on China’s goods. US trade levies on most imports from China have climbed to 145 percent. Beijing retaliated with duties of its own, at 125 percent on US goods.
Trump has long accused China of exploiting the US on trade, casting his tariffs as necessary to revive domestic manufacturing and reshore jobs back to the US. He also wants to use tariffs to finance tax cuts. Most economists remain sceptical Trump will achieve his aims.
For now, the US and China are locked in a high-stakes game of chicken. The world is waiting to see which country will yield and which will stay the course. As Trump nears his first 100 days in office for the second time, here’s where the tariff war with China stands:
What’s happening with negotiations?
Trump recently played up the possibility of securing a trade deal with China. Last week, the US president said his tariffs on China will “come down substantially” in the near future.
“We’re going to have a fair deal with China,” Trump told reporters on April 23, stirring hopes of a de-escalation. He also said his administration was “actively” negotiating with the Chinese side without elaborating.
On April 24, however, China’s Ministry of Commerce rebuffed president Trump’s remarks, saying there were no talks taking place between the two countries.
“Any claims about the progress of China-US economic and trade negotiations are groundless and have no factual basis,” ministry spokesman He Yadong said.
While he insisted that Beijing won’t duck any economic blows from Washington, he also said the door was “wide open” for talks.
Last week, the Reuters news agency reported that China was evaluating exemptions for select US imports – a list of up to 131 products.
Beijing has not made any public statement on the issue.
Has the tariff war impacted US exports?
Trump introduced his sweeping tariffs on China less than three weeks ago. The fallout for US businesses won’t be fully felt until later this year. Still, the warning signals are already flashing red.
Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that exports of soya beans – the biggest US farm export – fell dramatically for the period April 11-17, the first full week of reporting since Trump’s China tariff announcement.
By April 17, net sales of US soya beans dropped by 50 percent compared with the previous week. That was driven by a 67 percent fall in weekly soya bean exports to China, which, until recently, was America’s biggest export destination for the legume.
According to Piergiuseppe Fortunato, an adjunct professor of economics at the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, “China’s retaliatory tariffs will hit US farmers hard. Some may go out of business.” He added that all sectors with exposure to China would come under strain.
In 2023, the US exported roughly $15bn of oil, gas and coal to China. Losing that market would hit US energy firms.
Are imports to the US going to take a hit?
Since the start of Trump’s tariff war, cargo shipments have plummeted. According to Linerlytica, a shipping data provider, Chinese freight bookings bound for the US fell by 30 to 60 percent in April.
The drastic reduction in shipping from America’s third largest trading partner – after Canada and Mexico – has not yet been felt. In May, however, thousands of companies will need to restock their inventories.
According to Bloomberg News, retail giants Walmart and Target told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices from next month. They also warned that supply shocks could roll out to Christmas.
Electronic appliances, such as TV sets and washing machines, made up 46.4 percent of US imports from China in 2022. The US also imports a lot of its clothing and pharmaceutical product ingredients from China. The price of these goods will begin to rise from next month.
On April 22, the International Monetary Fund raised its US inflation forecast to 3 percent in 2025, owing to tariffs – a full 1 percentage point higher than in January. The lender also lowered its US economic growth forecast and raised its expectation that the US will tip into recession this year.
How will China’s economy be affected?
Despite growing tensions between the US and China, Washington and Beijing remain major trading partners.
According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported $438.9bn in Chinese goods last year.
That amounts to roughly 3 percent of China’s total economic output, which remains heavily reliant on exports.
In a report shared with its clients this month, Goldman Sachs said it expects Trump’s tariffs to drag down China’s gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 2.4 percentage points.
For their part, China’s top officials said the country can do without American farm and energy imports and promised to achieve a 5 percent GDP growth target for this year.
Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that together with non-US imports, domestic farm and energy production would be enough to satisfy demand.
“Even if we do not purchase feed grains and oilseeds from the United States, it will not have much impact on our country’s grain supply,” Zhao said on Monday.
He also noted there would be limited impact on China’s energy supplies if companies stopped importing US fossil fuels.
In some ways, experts said, China has been preparing for this crisis.
Fortunato told Al Jazeera: “The US is one of China’s biggest export markets, so tariffs will slow GDP growth. But Beijing has played this smartly as it began diversifying its imports away from the US during the first Trump trade war” in 2018.
He also pointed out that “the US depends on China for up to 60 percent of its critical mineral imports, used in everything from clean energy to military technology. The opposite flow simply isn’t there, so the US is more vulnerable.”
Could the US lose its geopolitical standing?
Trump has made little secret of his wish to conscript US allies into a trade war. The administration said it aims to strike free trade deals with the European Union, Great Britain and Japan.
More generally, reports suggest that Washington is asking trade partners to loosen their economic ties with China as a pre-condition for securing relief from Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.
Nevertheless, US allies seem largely opposed to any economic showdown with China. Last week, the European Commission said it has no intention of “decoupling” from China.
Elsewhere, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves recently told the Daily Telegraph newspaper: “China is the second biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish to not engage.”
Many countries are not in a position to abandon their trade ties with Beijing. The EU, in particular, has a huge trade deficit with China. Cutting off access to Chinese goods – both consumer products and inputs for industry – would bruise its already sluggish economy.
Across the developing world, China’s trade role is equally as crucial. Roughly a quarter of Bangladesh’s and Cambodia’s imports come from China. Nigeria and Saudi Arabia are similarly dependent on Beijing for their goods imports.
“It’s hard to see why countries would want to undermine their own business interests to try and reduce America’s trade deficit with China,” Fortunato said. “On this point, I think Trump has been short-sighted and may be forced to blink first on lowering tariffs with China.”
Is Trump losing his grip on Republican voters?
The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t need to worry about its next election cycle. Trump’s Republican Party does, so Beijing has the political upper hand in Trump’s trade war. Simply put, it has more time on its side.
For Trump’s party, his sabre rattling already looks politically costly. A new Economist-YouGov poll shows Americans reporting Trump’s economic actions have hurt them personally more than they’ve helped by a 30-point margin.
And public approval of the president’s economic management has been low for a while: It had fallen to 37 percent in a Reuters-Ipsos poll published on March 31, his lowest score ever in that survey.
If Trump stays the course, it is likely that his approval ratings might fall still lower, jeopardising the Republican Party’s fragile grip on the US House of Representatives – and possibly the Senate, experts said.
“For these reasons”, Fortunato said, “China does not feel compelled to rush to the negotiating table to secure a trade deal. That will probably fall to Trump.”
World
US military says it completed latest strikes on Iran, targets included Bandar Abbas
World
Iran calls on Houthis to prepare to cut off Red Sea gateway — can the terror group do it?
Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz, impacts global oil prices
FOX Business’ Lauren Simonetti details escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran threatens to block shipping lanes and impose new conditions. This move follows reports of vessels being struck by Iranian drones since March. The uncertainty surrounding the vital waterway has led to a 2% drop in crude oil prices, affecting the global market.
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Iran has reportedly instructed Yemen’s Houthi terrorists to prepare to close a critical Red Sea gateway if the United States attacks Iranian power infrastructure, Reuters reported, a threat experts warn could sharply disrupt global shipping even if the group cannot completely seal the waterway.
“This threat should be taken seriously,” Nadwa Al-Dawsari of the Middle East Institute told Fox News Digital. “With recent escalation and U.S. strikes on Iran, Tehran has already signaled that the Bab al-Mandab could become part of its response.”
Three sources told Reuters on Thursday that Iran’s leadership had discussed using the Houthis to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and recently conveyed the request to the group. A source close to the Houthis said missiles and drones had been deployed near the waterway and that the group was awaiting an order to begin attacking shipping.
IRAN-BACKED TERROR PROXY HOUTHIS THREATEN FRESH ATTACKS AFTER YEMEN AIRPORT STRIKE
A Houthi follower during a pro-Iran demonstration, in Sanaa, Yemen, April 6, 2026. (Khaled Abdullah/Reuters)
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former British ambassador to Yemen and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned in a recent Fox News Digital report that a full resumption of the Houthi maritime campaign could trigger wider fighting.
“It will be interesting if the Houthis do go all in, and resume their campaign against Red Sea shipping with full intensity,” Fitton-Brown said. “This will draw international anger and likely result in Israeli and U.S. strikes on Sana’a and Hodeida.”
“There is potential for a general escalation if this happens, albeit one in which the allies have a clear military advantage,” he added.
Al-Dawsari said the Houthis have continued developing the weapons needed to threaten the narrow shipping corridor despite largely refraining from maritime attacks over the past year.
“While the Houthis have largely refrained from attacking shipping for about a year, they have continued to advance their maritime capabilities, including missiles, drones and sea mines,” she said. “They may not be able to fully close the strait, but they could significantly disrupt shipping and raise costs and risks for commercial traffic.”
US CLAWS BACK KEY CONCESSION TO IRAN AFTER FRESH ATTACKS ON COMMERCIAL SHIPS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
This photo released by the Houthi Media Center shows Houthi forces boarding the cargo ship Galaxy Leader on Nov. 19, 2023. (Houthi Media Center via AP)
But the group would not necessarily need to physically control the waterway. Its previous missile and drone campaign demonstrated that repeated attacks — or even a credible threat of them — can push major shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa, driving up insurance, fuel and freight costs.
The Bab el-Mandeb connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and Suez Canal, making it one of the world’s most important maritime choke points. The consequences of renewed attacks would be especially severe because Iran has already disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, historically the principal route for roughly one-fifth of global energy supplies.
A substantial volume of Gulf oil has consequently been redirected through Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Reuters reported that the Bab el-Mandeb route now carries approximately 7% of global energy supplies and that Saudi Arabia has shifted about 70% of its energy exports through Yanbu.
The reported instructions also raise new questions about how much control Tehran exercises over major Houthi military decisions.
In this image provided by the U.S. Navy, the amphibious dock landing ship USS Carter Hall and amphibious assault ship USS Bataan transit the Bab al-Mandeb strait on Aug. 9, 2023. (Mass Communications Spc. 2nd Class Moises Sandoval/U.S. Navy via AP)
“Any decision to escalate in the Bab al-Mandab would be strategic and tied more to the interests of Iran and the Axis of Resistance than to Houthi interests alone,” Al-Dawsari said. “Decisions of this magnitude are likely coordinated through the Axis’ joint operations room under IRGC oversight.”
A source close to the Houthis claimed representatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Yemen would control the timing of any move against the strait, Reuters reported.
The latest warning follows earlier Houthi threats against maritime traffic. In the June 12 report, Fox News Digital reported that the group had announced a complete ban on Israeli-owned ships in the Red Sea and declared them “legitimate targets.”
EXPERT WARNS OF ‘GENERAL ESCALATION’ OF FIGHTING IF HOUTHIS RESUME RED SEA CAMPAIGN
A satellite imagery shows Bab el Mandeb Strait, a key shipping waterway and the gateway to the Red Sea, in this handout picture dated July 12, 2026. (Nasa Worldview/Handout via Reuters)
A State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital at the time that the actions of Iran and the Houthis were “unacceptable” and “dangerous,” warning that they could inflame regional tensions and further disrupt global supply chains.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has “repeatedly condemned” Houthis attacks against ships in the Red Sea and called on all parties Thursday to avoid further escalation, his spokesperson, Stéphane Dujarric, told Fox News Digital.
“Any disruptions or attacks would endanger the safety and security of seafarers, freedom of navigation and the stability of global supply chains and have a negative impact on the economic and humanitarian situation in Yemen and beyond,” Dujarric said. “The Secretary-General underscores that U.N. Security Council Resolution 2722 (2024) must be fully respected in its entirety,” he said on the resolution condemning at least two dozen Houthis attacks on commercial vessels since November 2023 and demanding an immediate end to the attacks.
The emerging threat has also renewed scrutiny of the Iranian weapons networks that helped build the Houthis’ missile and drone arsenal.
Amr Al-Bidh, foreign affairs chief of the Southern Arabian Transitional Council, said that the reported threat also exposed broader failures in the handling of Yemen’s security crisis. “The fact that individuals convicted of trafficking Iranian weapons to the Houthis and leading terrorist operations are now being released under a U.N.-brokered deal only underscores how poorly the Yemen crisis is being managed,” he said, “the main beneficiary of this vacuum is Iran, as seen in its credible threat to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait.”
In a July 15 letter obtained by Fox News Digital, the Southern Arabian Transitional Council formerly known as the Southern Transitional Council, a southern Yemeni separatist movement that seeks greater autonomy or independence for the territory of the former South Yemen, warned U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg that a U.N.-facilitated detainee agreement may include people the council says were convicted of assisting Iranian weapons transfers to the Houthis.
A missile is launched from a warship during the U.S.-led coalition operation against military targets in Yemen, aimed at the Iran-backed Houthi militia that has been targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, in this handout picture released on Jan. 12, 2024. (US Central Command via X/Handout via REUTERS/ File Photo)
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An annex identifies individuals the council alleges were members of a cell that smuggled drones, aviation fuel and heavy and medium weapons from Iran to Sanaa.
The Office of the U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen said it received the letter only after the agreement had already been signed and stressed that it does not determine which detainees are released.
“We have received the letter after the agreement was signed,” spokesperson Ismini Palla told Fox News Digital. “The United Nations – as well as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) – do not decide who is released and who remains in detention. Our role is limited to mediating the negotiations and ICRC leads on the implementation of the release operation.”
Palla added that “the names of those released are proposed and agreed between the parties under the framework of the Stockholm Agreement on prisoners’ exchange of 2018.”
Fox News Digital reached out to the State Department and the Iranian Mission to the United Nations on the latest developments.
Fox News’ Paul Tilsley and Reuters contributed to this report.
World
Fake Hezbollah video threatening attack on France possibly Russia-tied
Storm-1516, a Russia-linked influence operation — which routinely disseminates fabricated claims about Europe and the West — comes in all shapes and sizes.
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This time round, researchers say it could be behind a social media video in which alleged militants from Hezbollah — an Iran-backed Lebanese militant group — threatened to carry out attacks on French soil ahead of Bastille Day celebrations on 14 July.
In the video, three hooded men wearing military uniforms pose in front of a dummy of a French Foreign Legion soldier, whose face had the French flag painted on.
They threaten to “shed blood” on 14 July if France continues to “supply weapons” to the “Zionist regime”, in an apparent reference to Israel.
At the end of the clip, one man uses a knife to decapitate the dummy.
What do we know about this video?
The clip first spread on Telegram before moving to X and Facebook, gaining almost one million views across X posts.
In the content analysed by Euronews’s verification team, The Cube, the men don’t make an explicit reference to the group they belong to. However, the arm patch on the men’s uniform resembles Hezbollah, whose armed wing is classified as a terrorist organisation by the European Union.
In addition, social media posts also refer to them as Hezbollah.
However, there is a series of clues which suggest the video is fake. To begin, the video does not bear the group’s logo, which is typically included in content disseminated on its official channels.
Colleagues from Euronews Arabic-speaking service also told us that the accent resembled Levantine Arabic but not a Lebanese Arabic accent, adding that the speaker made multiple grammatical mistakes. This suggests that the video does not belong to Hezbollah.
Fact-checkers from AFP reported that the video spread through a series of posts published on the same day by a network of accounts that regularly use pro-Russian narratives.
They include accounts that are favourable to the Alliance of Sahel States, a group of countries that includes Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, has ties to Iran and is openly anti-Western.
Fact-checkers have also reported that the video was picked up by anti-Israel accounts, as well as by users who regularly reshare conspiracy theories.
Storm-1516’s changing faces
The video bears similarities to other content connected to the Storm-1516 disinformation campaign, as well as fake content targeting Ukraine and Western countries.
The network produces a wide variety of content, which includes impersonating European journalists and news outlets, paying actors to pose as fake whistleblowers, and increasingly incorporating AI-generated content into its operations.
Researchers have highlighted similarities between the latest fake Hezbollah clip and other Russia-linked content — including a clip flagged by the Gnida project, an anonymous research group tracking Russian influence operations, which was published in January 2025.
The video in question showed individuals claiming to belong to HTS — the Islamist group formerly led by Syria’s current president, Ahmed al-Sharaa — threaten to burn down Paris’ Notre Dame Cathedral, unless French authorities release Brahim Aouissaoui. The latter, a Tunisian citizen, killed three people during a terror attack he carried out in Nice in 2020.
Another example was a video purporting to show Hamas threatening attacks in France ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics. Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center examined the clip and deemed it to be consistent with Storm-1516’s tactics, while Hamas denied producing the video.
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