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Trump-China tariff war: Who’s winning so far?

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Trump-China tariff war: Who’s winning so far?

After United States President Donald Trump suspended his “reciprocal tariffs” on major US trading partners on April 9, he ramped them up on China’s goods. US trade levies on most imports from China have climbed to 145 percent. Beijing retaliated with duties of its own, at 125 percent on US goods.

Trump has long accused China of exploiting the US on trade, casting his tariffs as necessary to revive domestic manufacturing and reshore jobs back to the US. He also wants to use tariffs to finance tax cuts. Most economists remain sceptical Trump will achieve his aims.

For now, the US and China are locked in a high-stakes game of chicken. The world is waiting to see which country will yield and which will stay the course. As Trump nears his first 100 days in office for the second time, here’s where the tariff war with China stands:

What’s happening with negotiations?

Trump recently played up the possibility of securing a trade deal with China. Last week, the US president said his tariffs on China will “come down substantially” in the near future.

“We’re going to have a fair deal with China,” Trump told reporters on April 23, stirring hopes of a de-escalation. He also said his administration was “actively” negotiating with the Chinese side without elaborating.

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On April 24, however, China’s Ministry of Commerce rebuffed president Trump’s remarks, saying there were no talks taking place between the two countries.

“Any claims about the progress of China-US economic and trade negotiations are groundless and have no factual basis,” ministry spokesman He Yadong said.

While he insisted that Beijing won’t duck any economic blows from Washington, he also said the door was “wide open” for talks.

Last week, the Reuters news agency reported that China was evaluating exemptions for select US imports – a list of up to 131 products.

Beijing has not made any public statement on the issue.

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Has the tariff war impacted US exports?

Trump introduced his sweeping tariffs on China less than three weeks ago. The fallout for US businesses won’t be fully felt until later this year. Still, the warning signals are already flashing red.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that exports of soya beans – the biggest US farm export – fell dramatically for the period April 11-17, the first full week of reporting since Trump’s China tariff announcement.

By April 17, net sales of US soya beans dropped by 50 percent compared with the previous week. That was driven by a 67 percent fall in weekly soya bean exports to China, which, until recently, was America’s biggest export destination for the legume.

According to Piergiuseppe Fortunato, an adjunct professor of economics at the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, “China’s retaliatory tariffs will hit US farmers hard. Some may go out of business.” He added that all sectors with exposure to China would come under strain.

In 2023, the US exported roughly $15bn of oil, gas and coal to China. Losing that market would hit US energy firms.

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Are imports to the US going to take a hit?

Since the start of Trump’s tariff war, cargo shipments have plummeted. According to Linerlytica, a shipping data provider, Chinese freight bookings bound for the US fell by 30 to 60 percent in April.

The drastic reduction in shipping from America’s third largest trading partner – after Canada and Mexico – has not yet been felt. In May, however, thousands of companies will need to restock their inventories.

According to Bloomberg News, retail giants Walmart and Target told Trump in a meeting last week that shoppers are likely to see empty shelves and higher prices from next month. They also warned that supply shocks could roll out to Christmas.

Electronic appliances, such as TV sets and washing machines, made up 46.4 percent of US imports from China in 2022. The US also imports a lot of its clothing and pharmaceutical product ingredients from China. The price of these goods will begin to rise from next month.

On April 22, the International Monetary Fund raised its US inflation forecast to 3 percent in 2025, owing to tariffs – a full 1 percentage point higher than in January. The lender also lowered its US economic growth forecast and raised its expectation that the US will tip into recession this year.

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How will China’s economy be affected?

Despite growing tensions between the US and China, Washington and Beijing remain major trading partners.

According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US imported $438.9bn in Chinese goods last year.

That amounts to roughly 3 percent of China’s total economic output, which remains heavily reliant on exports.

In a report shared with its clients this month, Goldman Sachs said it expects Trump’s tariffs to drag down China’s gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 2.4 percentage points.

For their part, China’s top officials said the country can do without American farm and energy imports and promised to achieve a 5 percent GDP growth target for this year.

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Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that together with non-US imports, domestic farm and energy production would be enough to satisfy demand.

“Even if we do not purchase feed grains and oilseeds from the United States, it will not have much impact on our country’s grain supply,” Zhao said on Monday.

He also noted there would be limited impact on China’s energy supplies if companies stopped importing US fossil fuels.

In some ways, experts said, China has been preparing for this crisis.

Fortunato told Al Jazeera: “The US is one of China’s biggest export markets, so tariffs will slow GDP growth. But Beijing has played this smartly as it began diversifying its imports away from the US during the first Trump trade war” in 2018.

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He also pointed out that “the US depends on China for up to 60 percent of its critical mineral imports, used in everything from clean energy to military technology. The opposite flow simply isn’t there, so the US is more vulnerable.”

Could the US lose its geopolitical standing?

Trump has made little secret of his wish to conscript US allies into a trade war. The administration said it aims to strike free trade deals with the European Union, Great Britain and Japan.

More generally, reports suggest that Washington is asking trade partners to loosen their economic ties with China as a pre-condition for securing relief from Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.

Nevertheless, US allies seem largely opposed to any economic showdown with China. Last week, the European Commission said it has no intention of “decoupling” from China.

Elsewhere, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves recently told the Daily Telegraph newspaper: “China is the second biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish to not engage.”

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Many countries are not in a position to abandon their trade ties with Beijing. The EU, in particular, has a huge trade deficit with China. Cutting off access to Chinese goods – both consumer products and inputs for industry – would bruise its already sluggish economy.

Across the developing world, China’s trade role is equally as crucial. Roughly a quarter of Bangladesh’s and Cambodia’s imports come from China. Nigeria and Saudi Arabia are similarly dependent on Beijing for their goods imports.

“It’s hard to see why countries would want to undermine their own business interests to try and reduce America’s trade deficit with China,” Fortunato said. “On this point, I think Trump has been short-sighted and may be forced to blink first on lowering tariffs with China.”

Is Trump losing his grip on Republican voters?

The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t need to worry about its next election cycle. Trump’s Republican Party does, so Beijing has the political upper hand in Trump’s trade war. Simply put, it has more time on its side.

For Trump’s party, his sabre rattling already looks politically costly. A new Economist-YouGov poll shows Americans reporting Trump’s economic actions have hurt them personally more than they’ve helped by a 30-point margin.

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And public approval of the president’s economic management has been low for a while: It had fallen to 37 percent in a Reuters-Ipsos poll published on March 31, his lowest score ever in that survey.

If Trump stays the course, it is likely that his approval ratings might fall still lower, jeopardising the Republican Party’s fragile grip on the US House of Representatives – and possibly the Senate, experts said.

“For these reasons”, Fortunato said, “China does not feel compelled to rush to the negotiating table to secure a trade deal. That will probably fall to Trump.”

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A glowing red room in southern Lebanon shows life after the fighting

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A glowing red room in southern Lebanon shows life after the fighting

TYRE, Lebanon (AP) — Hassan Ammar is based in Beirut, Lebanon, and has worked for The Associated Press since 2008. Since 2016, he has been based in Beirut covering conflicts, politics, breaking news and daily life across Lebanon and the wider Middle East.

Here’s what he had to say about this extraordinary photo.

Why this photo?

I made this photograph while documenting the impact of the war between Israel and Hezbollah on civilians in southern Lebanon. I was working on a story about families who had been displaced by the conflict and were beginning to return to their homes. While much of the damage was visible outside, I was interested in documenting the quieter moments inside people’s homes and how they were adapting to life after the fighting. When I entered this apartment, the unusual atmosphere immediately caught my attention and felt like a powerful way to tell that story.

How I made this photo

The image was made in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre while I was covering the aftermath of the conflict. I had knocked on the door of an apartment to ask permission to photograph damaged buildings from the balcony. As soon as I entered, the intense red light filling the room caught my attention. The apartment’s balcony glass had been shattered by nearby strikes, and the residents had hung a red sheet over the opening to provide privacy and block the strong sunlight. With no electricity in the area, the room was almost completely dark, creating a dramatic contrast between the glowing red fabric and the deep shadows.

As the apartment owners were working to secure and cover the damaged balcony doors, I noticed the silhouette created by the afternoon sun shining through the red sheet. The dark curtains framing the opening added another layer to the scene, almost like a theater stage, helping draw the viewer’s eye toward the bright red light. I began looking for a composition that would emphasize the unusual light and mood. I was not specifically expecting a person to appear in the frame, but after a short moment someone moved behind the fabric and pressed a hand against it. That simple gesture immediately transformed the scene, giving the image a human presence and emotional weight.

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The photograph was made with a Sony A1 and a 24-70mm lens. I exposed for the bright red fabric and the silhouette created by the sunlight while allowing the rest of the room to fall into deep shadow. The contrast between the glowing red light, the dark interior and the curtains framing the scene helped create the dramatic atmosphere I was trying to convey.

Why this photo works

For me, the photograph works because it conveys a sense of confinement, uncertainty and human vulnerability without showing a face. The hand becomes a symbol of the people living through the conflict, while the red light can evoke different emotions, including danger, fear and resilience. The image leaves room for interpretation while remaining rooted in a real situation. When I reviewed the photograph on the back of my camera, I felt it captured something deeper than a simple news image. It expressed the emotional and psychological atmosphere many civilians were experiencing after months of war.


For more extraordinary AP photography, click here.

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Shark attack survivor wakes from 10-day coma and shares first words with family at her hospital bedside

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Shark attack survivor wakes from 10-day coma and shares first words with family at her hospital bedside

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After spending 10 days in an induced coma following a shark attack on a Sydney, Australia beach, a woman uttered her first three words this week.

Leah Stewart awoke and told her family, “I love you” on Tuesday while recuperating at a hospital, according to her brother, who wrote the update on a fundraising page.

“After a week of life-support and repeat[ed] surgeries, doctors were able to extubate Leah and reduce her level of sedation to bring her out of the induced coma for a short period of time,” Stewart said. “This allowed Leah to share her first words ‘I love you’ with her Mum and partner Fernando who have been by her side in ICU since the incident.”

He added that his sister’s “first thoughts were with her daughter August,” asking if she was OK.

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SHARK ATTACK TURNS HOLIDAY BOATING TRIP INTO BLOODY FIGHT FOR TEEN’S SURVIVAL

Leah Stewart was asking about her daughter after she briefly awoke from her induced coma Tuesday. (GoFundMe)

The mid-30s mother and teacher has already been through five surgeries, including having an arm amputated.

She had been airlifted to a hospital in critical condition on the morning of June 13 at Coogee Beach, a popular weekend destination, after a shark bit her legs and arms.

HEART-POUNDING VIDEO SHOWS FISHERMAN LEAPING INTO OCEAN TO SAVE GREAT WHITE SHARK

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Stewart told her family that she loved them. (GoFundMe)

Stewart was swimming near shore while a friend watched her daughter on the beach when the attack happened, the Sydney Morning Herald reported.

“This is a lot faster than anyone expected, and for us this feels like a miracle and is everything so many of us have hoped and prayed for over the past week,” Stewart wrote on a fundraising page.

Police and emergency personnel at the scene after a shark attack at Coogee Beach in Sydney, Australia, June 13. (Reuters/Hollie Adams)

He added, “Leah has a long road ahead and still remains in critical care, but this is such a positive first step and gives us hope for Leah’s long-term recovery.”

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Stewart’s attack came after three men have been killed by sharks in Australia since May. A 12-year-old boy was also killed by a shark in Sydney Harbor in January.

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Who will control Africa’s AI infrastructure and at what cost

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Who will control Africa’s AI infrastructure and at what cost

Johannesburg, South Africa – In April, African Union ministers gathered in Tangier, Morocco, to discuss artificial intelligence at a moment when governments across the continent are racing to develop AI strategies, attract investment and expand digital infrastructure.

Beneath the enthusiasm, however, sits a more fundamental question. As foreign technology companies invest in data centres, cloud services and AI systems across Africa, how much control will African countries ultimately have over the infrastructure on which those technologies depend?

The debate reflects a broader shift in how policymakers are thinking about AI. For years, discussions focused largely on adoption: how governments, businesses and public services could use the technology. Increasingly, attention is turning to ownership, governance and the terms on which AI systems are developed and deployed.

Several governments have framed the issue in those terms. Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and Ghana have all released national AI strategies in recent years that highlight the need to build local capacity and reduce dependence on foreign technology providers. Ghana’s national strategy, launched in April, describes AI as a “sovereign capability”. Forty-nine countries, along with the African Union, have endorsed the Africa Declaration on Artificial Intelligence, which calls for greater investment in African AI infrastructure, talent and innovation, alongside proposals for coordinated financing mechanisms.

At the same time, translating ambition into policy has not always been straightforward. In South Africa, a draft national AI policy was withdrawn earlier this year after officials identified references that could not be verified and appeared to have been generated by AI tools, highlighting the practical challenges governments face in regulating rapidly evolving technologies.

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Global competition, local leverage

The discussion is unfolding as global competition over AI intensifies. Major technology companies, cloud providers and governments are competing for access to data, computing power and new markets. For African countries, that competition may also create space to negotiate.

Priyal Singh, a geopolitical analyst at Signal Risk, told Al Jazeera that the fragmented nature of the global AI industry could strengthen that position.

“African states will indeed be provided with greater room for manoeuvre on AI and data infrastructure, precisely due to how contested and fragmented this industry is amongst global leaders,” he said.

He pointed to regulatory tensions surrounding Starlink’s expansion in parts of Africa as an example of governments becoming more assertive in their dealings with global technology firms.

“Major tech companies will need to bend to local concerns much more often than they would otherwise expect,” Singh said.

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The infrastructure gap

Yet leverage in the AI era is not only political. It is also infrastructural.

Africa remains significantly underrepresented in the global digital economy’s physical backbone. Industry estimates suggest the continent accounts for less than one per cent of global data centre capacity, despite being home to roughly 18 per cent of the world’s population. Research by McKinsey has found that Africa’s five largest data centre markets combined have less capacity than France. Across much of the continent, unreliable electricity supply remains a major constraint on expansion.

Those limits help explain why negotiations over data centres and cloud infrastructure have become increasingly sensitive.

Kenya’s contested data centre deal

One of the most closely watched projects has been a proposed $1bn data centre development involving Microsoft and Emirati technology company G42 in Kenya.

The project drew attention after Kenyan President William Ruto highlighted the scale of its energy demands, warning that infrastructure of that size would require substantial additional power generation.

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Reports have also pointed to discussions over commercial arrangements and long-term commitments linked to computing capacity. Kenyan officials have maintained that talks around the project remain ongoing.

Whatever the outcome, the episode illustrates the trade-offs governments face: attracting investment in AI infrastructure while weighing energy needs, financing costs and long-term strategic dependence.

What countries gain and what they give up

The question of who builds Africa’s digital future extends beyond Western technology companies.

Sanusha Naidu, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, told Al Jazeera that debates about diversification are often more complicated than they appear.

“Whether it’s seen as diversifying from Western tech companies or shifting towards Chinese-based companies, I think it’s generally part of the cost-benefit factor,” she said.

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For governments, she argued, the key issue is what is returned through these partnerships.

“Whether it’s a US company, a company from Europe, or a Chinese company,” she said, policymakers must weigh the broader developmental impact of such investments.

She compared current AI infrastructure debates with earlier waves of foreign investment.

“What we saw in the 1990s around the textile industry is investment comes in, but there’s a lot of subsidisation by the recipient country. With data centres, it’s much more intense. It’s also how big consumers of water these data centres are, and how that impacts socioeconomic issues within African countries.”

Data, surveillance and sovereignty

Concerns about dependence extend beyond data centres.

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Over the past decade, African governments have adopted a growing range of foreign-built digital systems, from cloud computing platforms and digital public services to surveillance and smart city technologies. At the same time, debates over data governance, digital sovereignty and where sensitive information should be stored and processed have become increasingly prominent across the continent.

Similar arguments have been made by supporters of plans to establish an Africa Credit Rating Agency, designed to offer African-led assessments of sovereign creditworthiness rather than relying exclusively on established international ratings agencies.

The missing public

Yet much of the discussion about AI governance remains concentrated among policymakers, regulators and technology companies.

Joseph Asunka, chief executive of Afrobarometer, told Al Jazeera that the debate is still far removed from everyday citizens.

“These negotiations should not just be conducted at the elite level and dumped on citizens,” he said. “If citizens do not trust their government’s actions in this space, it creates a trust gap, which could have negative implications for the adoption of fintech, e-commerce and e-government tools.”

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He added that concerns about data protection and digital security are already widespread across African populations, even if AI itself is not yet widely understood.

Beyond dependency

The debate echoes older questions about economic sovereignty that have shaped African politics for decades. Independence-era leaders argued that political freedom meant little without control over economic resources. Today, similar questions are emerging around data, computing power and digital infrastructure.

Alongside large-scale investment, governments and development agencies are also exploring ways to build local capacity. Projects such as the United Nations Development Programme’s timbuktoo initiative aim to strengthen African technology ecosystems through support for innovation, entrepreneurship and digital infrastructure.

Such efforts remain modest compared with the scale of global AI investment. But they reflect a broader attempt to ensure African countries participate not only as consumers of AI systems, but also as contributors to their development.

Africa is unlikely to become self-sufficient in artificial intelligence, nor is that the objective for most governments. The continent remains deeply integrated into global technology supply chains and will continue to rely on international investment, expertise and partnerships.

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The question that remains

The question facing policymakers is therefore less about whether Africa will use AI than about the terms on which it should do so. As governments negotiate new investments, draft regulations and build digital infrastructure, decisions made now could shape who controls the technologies that increasingly influence economies, public services and everyday life.

“These negotiations should not just be conducted at the elite level and dumped on citizens,” Afrobarometer’s Asunka said.

“If citizens do not trust their government’s actions in this space, it creates a trust gap, which could have negative implications for the adoption of fintech, e-commerce and e-government tools.”

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