World
Inflation’s 40-Year High
The general value of gasoline, meals and different on a regular basis gadgets is growing at its quickest fee in additional than 40 years. And consultants can’t say with confidence whether or not value will increase will pace up or decelerate within the coming months.
The accelerating value fee — in different phrases, inflation — hit 8.5 % in March over the earlier 12 months, in response to a federal report launched yesterday. That was the quickest improve since 1981.
Rising gasoline costs drove greater than half of the March improve, largely due to the warfare in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia, a serious oil and gasoline producer. However prices for different items, together with housing, elevated considerably in March, too.
The issue is similar because it has been for the previous 12 months: Provide chains are failing to maintain up with elevated shopper demand. “It’s actually a broader imbalance between provide and demand,” my colleague Jeanna Smialek, who covers the financial system, informed me.
American life is subsequently costlier, with will increase in costs up to now outpacing beneficial properties in wages.
In response, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central financial institution, is elevating rates of interest to extend the price of borrowing cash. The aim is to decelerate the financial system and, due to this fact, inflation.
However some consultants fear that the Fed is transferring too slowly and that its strategy might power it to take extra drastic steps to tame costs down the road. The nightmare situation: The Fed has to tank the financial system, because it did within the Eighties by aggressively elevating rates of interest, to finish stubbornly excessive inflation.
Given these stakes, at the moment I need to stroll by way of the explanations that inflation may keep excessive, and the explanations it may not, over the subsequent few months.
Why it’d worsen
The Federal Reserve goals for an inflation fee of roughly 2 % a 12 months, attempting to strike a stability of excessive employment ranges with out runaway value will increase. However inflation is operating a lot greater proper now, and can be greater within the U.S. than in Europe and other developed countries. There are causes to imagine it will stay an issue for a while.
Sudden occasions have disrupted provide traces for the previous few years and will once more. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already precipitated gasoline costs to spike. As a result of Ukraine is a serious meals producer, the warfare has additionally elevated meals costs and will proceed to take action.
Covid has distorted provide traces since 2020, and future variants and outbreaks might do the identical. That’s already occurring in China, the place some locations are locking right down to attempt to include new outbreaks — probably interrupting the circulate of products from the world’s greatest producer.
“Covid is the basis of all evil,” Claudia Sahm, an economist on the Jain Household Institute, informed me. “It has been extraordinarily disruptive and tragic in folks’s lives. It has additionally been disruptive of their livelihoods.”
The longer these disruptions go on, the longer Individuals might come to anticipate inflation to turn out to be a daily a part of life — and the more serious inflation might get in consequence.
Think about wages: If folks anticipate excessive inflation, they are going to demand greater pay. However to pay greater wages, employers are prone to move that value to shoppers by charging them greater costs. Larger wages might additionally imply elevated demand, as a result of folks may have extra money to spend. This “wage-price spiral,” as economists name it, was a serious contributor to excessive inflation within the Seventies.
Why it’d get higher
Some consultants are optimistic. They imagine that inflation might begin coming down later this 12 months. “The Fed may be very able to bringing down inflation,” mentioned Adam Ozimek, chief economist on the Financial Innovation Group. “That mentioned, I believe there’s a whole lot of threat.”
One constructive trace, from yesterday’s report: The core inflation index, which measures costs excluding extra unstable meals and vitality prices, elevated at a slower fee in March than it did in earlier months. That would recommend that inflation is peaking.
Fuel costs are additionally already down a bit from a peak in March. A few of that’s pushed by China’s lockdowns, holding many potential shoppers dwelling. Over time, the world may regulate to the Ukraine warfare’s shock to grease and gasoline markets. The West, for instance, might discover options to Russian oil and gasoline, like extra U.S. drilling or clear vitality sources, to fill present gaps in provide.
And the warfare might finish, decreasing any additional affect on international markets.
In the meantime, Covid circumstances are declining worldwide. If potential future waves don’t trigger main disruptions, inflation might cool as provide traces get again to regular.
The Biden administration is individually taking some actions, like releasing oil from strategic reserves and permitting summertime gross sales of ethanol-based gasoline. However the results of these strikes are anticipated to be small.
Shopper demand might drop as properly. Larger costs might discourage some spending. And further money from the financial stimulus packages of the previous few years, which some consultants argue helped gasoline inflation, is drying up, leaving Individuals with much less cash to spend.
All of that, together with the Federal Reserve’s actions, might put the financial system in a greater stability between provide and demand within the coming months.
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A Renaissance music primer
In “5 Minutes That Will Make You Love …,” The Instances asks musicians, critics and consultants to advocate a music in a sure musical model. The most recent version explores a lesser-known space: Renaissance music.
“We needed to shine a lightweight on music you’re probably not going to listen to at your native symphony,” Zachary Woolfe, The Instances’s classical music critic, informed us. “There’s an unimaginable selection within the compositions of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, however this choice focuses on a few of the most lovely choral writing ever made.”
The songs on the listing evoke the listener’s creativeness of life centuries in the past. In lots of them, celestial harmonies sound as if they’re echoing in a cathedral. Others are enjoyable and stunning: “Come, sirrah Jack, ho,” a jaunty ode to consuming and smoking, is sort of a evening in a tavern. Take heed to that one, and lots of extra.
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World
India kicks off a massive Hindu festival touted as the world's largest religious gathering
PRAYAGRAJ, India (AP) — Millions of Hindu devotees, mystics and holy men and women from all across India flocked to the northern city of Prayagraj on Monday to kickstart the Maha Kumbh festival, which is being touted as the world’s largest religious gathering.
Over about the next six weeks, Hindu pilgrims with gather at the confluence of three sacred rivers — the Ganges, the Yamuna and the mythical Saraswati — where they will take part in elaborate rituals, hoping to begin a journey to achieve Hindu philosophy’s ultimate goal: the release from the cycle of rebirth.
Here’s what to know about the festival:
A religious gathering at the confluence of three sacred rivers
Hindus venerate rivers, and none more so than the Ganges and the Yamuna. The faithful believe that a dip in their waters will cleanse them of their past sins and end their process of reincarnation, particularly on auspicious days. The most propitious of these days occur in cycles of 12 years during a festival called the Maha Kumbh Mela, or pitcher festival.
The festival is a series of ritual baths by Hindu sadhus, or holy men, and other pilgrims at the confluence of three sacred rivers that dates to at least medieval times. Hindus believe that the mythical Saraswati river once flowed from the Himalayas through Prayagraj, meeting there with the Ganges and the Yamuna.
Bathing takes place every day, but on the most auspicious dates, naked, ash-smeared monks charge toward the holy rivers at dawn. Many pilgrims stay for the entire festival, observing austerity, giving alms and bathing at sunrise every day.
“We feel peaceful here and attain salvation from the cycles of life and death,” said Bhagwat Prasad Tiwari, a pilgrim.
The festival has its roots in a Hindu tradition that says the god Vishnu wrested a golden pitcher containing the nectar of immortality from demons. Hindus believe that a few drops fell in the cities of Prayagraj, Nasik, Ujjain and Haridwar — the four places where the Kumbh festival has been held for centuries.
The Kumbh rotates among these four pilgrimage sites about every three years on a date prescribed by astrology. This year’s festival is the biggest and grandest of them all. A smaller version of the festival, called Ardh Kumbh, or Half Kumbh, was organized in 2019, when 240 million visitors were recorded, with about 50 million taking a ritual bath on the busiest day.
Maha Kumb is the world’s largest such gathering
At least 400 million people — more than the population of the United States — are expected in Prayagraj over the next 45 days, according to officials. That is around 200 times the 2 million pilgrims that arrived in the Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia for the annual Hajj pilgrimage last year.
The festival is a big test for Indian authorities to showcase the Hindu religion, tourism and crowd management.
A vast ground along the banks of the rivers has been converted into a sprawling tent city equipped with more 3,000 kitchens and 150,000 restrooms. Divided into 25 sections and spreading over 40 square kilometers (15 square miles), the tent city also has housing, roads, electricity and water, communication towers and 11 hospitals. Murals depicting stories from Hindu scriptures are painted on the city walls.
Indian Railways has also introduced more than 90 special trains that will make nearly 3,300 trips during the festival to transport devotees, beside regular trains.
About 50,000 security personnel — a 50% increase from 2019 — are also stationed in the city to maintain law and order and crowd management. More than 2,500 cameras, some powered by AI, will send crowd movement and density information to four central control rooms, where officials can quickly deploy personnel to avoid stampedes.
The festival will boost Modi’s support base
India’s past leaders have capitalized on the festival to strengthen their relationship with the country’s Hindus, who make up nearly 80% of India’s more than 1.4 billion people. But under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the festival has become an integral part of its advocacy of Hindu nationalism. For Modi and his party, Indian civilization is inseparable from Hinduism, although critics say the party’s philosophy is rooted in Hindu supremacy.
The Uttar Pradesh state, headed by Adityanath — a powerful Hindu monk and a popular hard-line Hindu politician in Modi’s party — has allocated more than $765 million for this year’s event. It has also used the festival to boost his and the prime minister’s image, with giant billboards and posters all over the city showing them both, alongside slogans touting their government welfare policies.
The festival is expected to boost the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party’s past record of promoting Hindu cultural symbols for its support base. But recent Kumbh gatherings have also been caught in controversies.
Modi’s government changed the city’s Mughal-era name from Allahabad to Prayagraj as part of its Muslim-to-Hindu name-changing effort nationwide ahead of the 2019 festival and the national election that his party won. In 2021, his government refused to call off the festival in Haridwar despite a surge in coronavirus cases, fearing a backlash from religious leaders in the Hindu-majority country.
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Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.
World
Ukraine has captured 2 North Korean soldiers, South Korea's intelligence service says
Ukraine captured two wounded North Korean soldiers who were fighting on behalf of Russia in a Russian border region, South Korea’s intelligence service said, confirming an account from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday.
Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) told AFP it has “confirmed that the Ukrainian military captured two North Korean soldiers on January 9 in the Kursk battlefield in Russia.”
The confirmation comes after Zelenskyy said in a post on the Telegram messaging app that the two captured North Korean soldiers were wounded and taken to Kyiv, where they are communicating with Ukrainian security services SBU.
SBU released video that appears to show the two prisoners on beds inside jail cells. The authenticity of the video could not be independently verified.
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A doctor interviewed in the SBU video said one soldier suffered a facial wound while the other soldier had an open wound and a lower leg fracture. Both men were receiving medical treatment.
SBU also said one of the soldiers had no documents at all, while the other had been carrying a Russian military ID card in the name of a man from Tuva, a Russian region bordering Mongolia.
Ukraine’s military says North Korean soldiers are outfitted in Russian military uniforms and carry fake military IDs in their pockets, a scheme that Andrii Yusov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, says could mean Moscow and “its representatives at the U.N. can deny the facts.”
Despite Ukrainian, U.S. and South Korean assertions that Pyongyang has sent 10,000 – 12,000 troops to fight alongside Russia in the Kursk border region, Moscow has never publicly acknowledged the North Korean forces.
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While reports of their presence first emerged in October, Ukrainian troops only confirmed engagement on the ground in December.
On Thursday, Zelenskyy put the number of killed or wounded North Koreans at 4,000, though U.S. estimates are lower, at around 1,200.
Despite North Korea’s suffering losses and initial inexperience on the battlefield, Ukrainian soldiers, military intelligence and experts suggest first-hand experience will only help them develop further as a fighting force.
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“For the first time in decades, the North Korean army is gaining real military experience,” Yusov said. “This is a global challenge — not just for Ukraine and Europe, but for the entire world.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
World
Three people killed in an avalanche in Italy's Leopontine Alps
A group of five skiers was hit by the avalanche above the village of Trasquera in the Piedmont region. Two survived and were helicoptered to hospital.
The avalanche broke away around 12.30pm on the eastern face of Punta Valgrande, a summit in the Leopontine Alps, on the border between Italy and Switzerland.
The skiers who died were dragged down the snowy mountain for several hundred metres from where they had been skiing at over 2,800 metres. The bodies have not yet been recovered because they are awaiting authorisation from the local magistrate.
An alert had been issued in the area above 2,100 metres, which warned of “considerable danger of avalanches.” The alert was at level 3, with 5 being the most dangerous.
It is not yet clear whether the rescuers were alerted by a skier who saw the avalanche sweeping away three people, or by the other two people who managed to save themselves. According to reports, the group was going uphill with crampons and then descending with skis.
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