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India’s biggest election prize: Can the Gandhi family survive Modi?
Amethi/Rae Bareli, India – Irfan*, a tea stall owner, is convinced that change is afoot.
“There has not been much traffic on this road from Rae Bareli to Amethi ever since the Congress lost power in 2014,” he says, referring to two towns and a party that for decades have been synonymous with one family – the Nehru-Gandhis, or as they are more commonly known, the Gandhis.
The first family of Indian politics has ruled the country for almost half of its journey since independence in 1947, with three generations of prime ministers: Jawaharlal Nehru, his daughter Indira Gandhi, and grandson Rajiv Gandhi. And through ups and downs, when the Congress has been in power and out of it, Amethi and Rae Bareli, separated by 62km (38 miles), have for the most part stood by the family. They’ve served as safe constituencies for India’s grand old party in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, which is India’s largest electoral prize: with 80 seats out of the nation’s total of 543 in the lower house of parliament.
In 2019, that tradition received a dramatic jolt when the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi – son of Rajiv – lost Amethi by 55,000 votes to Smriti Irani, a feisty minister in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, which has been in power nationally since 2014. Rahul’s mother and former Congress chief, Sonia Gandhi, retained Rae Bareli for the party, the only seat it won in Uttar Pradesh as the BJP swept the nation, winning 303 seats overall.
Now, five years later, the towns are a tense microcosm of the national battle between the BJP and opposition Congress; between Modi and the Gandhis. Rahul is replacing his 77-year-old mother from Rae Bareli this time. BJP’s Irani is seeking reelection from Amethi. Each of them is expected to face tough competition from the other’s party. Amethi and Rae Bareli vote on May 20 in India’s giant election.
At stake are more than two seats: If the BJP wins Rae Bareli and retains Amethi, it will effectively have wiped out the Gandhi family and the Congress from Uttar Pradesh. Conversely, say opposition leaders, a Congress win in both seats could seed anti-BJP momentum in a state that often decides who rules nationally.
Irfan, from his vantage point of Tiloi town near Amethi and Rae Bareli, believes the political winds are blowing in the direction of the Congress. “Storm is building in both the cities, which will impact the entire state,” he says.
Yet, storms can be unpredictable – and Amethi and Rae Bareli know that.
Boost for the opposition?
In a video posted by the Congress party on social platforms, Rahul and his mother Sonia are seen leafing through old photos of the family visiting and contesting from Amethi and Rae Bareli, as they reflect on their family’s old association with the towns.
It is a decades-old bond. Feroze Gandhi, Indira’s husband and Rahul’s grandfather, won Rae Bareli in 1952 – independent India’s first election. Indira and Sonia won this seat subsequently, their stints interspersed by terms when their loyalists were nominated to contest from the town instead.
Only thrice has the Congress lost Rae Bareli. In 1977, a national opposition coalition toppled Indira’s government to come to power amid a wave of anger against the Congress over its imposition of a state of national emergency in 1975, when civil liberties were suspended and thousands of its political opponents were arrested. In 1996 and 1998, when the BJP was rising nationally and first came to power, it defeated the Congress here – though the Gandhi family was not in the contest on those occasions.
In Amethi, Indira’s elder son Feroze Gandhi lost the 1977 election but won in 1980. The Congress lost only once since then, in 1998, before Irani’s upset in 2019. Sonia and Rahul have both won from Amethi.
After his loss in 2019, many pundits had wondered whether Rahul would ever contest from the family pocket boroughs – or even from Uttar Pradesh – again. He had won from Wayanad in the southern state of Kerala in 2019 and contested from there again this time.
The Congress party insiders say he was unconvinced about contesting from a second seat this time, but was eventually swayed by pressure from Sonia, who was opposed to giving up the family’s bastions without a fight. Rahul’s sister Priyanka, who is now also a leader of Congress, decided against contesting.
With Rahul contesting from Rae Bareli, a longtime family friend Kishori Lal Sharma is competing against Irani from Amethi. It’s a scenario that could work for the opposition, say some of its leaders. In the days before the Congress decided on its candidates for these seats, Ameeque Jamei, a national spokesperson for the Samajwadi Party – the Congress’s biggest ally in Uttar Pradesh – had told Al Jazeera that if Rahul or Priyanka contested, the “opposition fight against the BJP will gain greater meaning”. He predicted that the Congress-led INDIA alliance that is challenging the BJP nationally could win up to 20 of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats.
That is easier said than done. Rahul faces a formidable challenger in the BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh, who gave Sonia a tough fight in 2019, cutting her winning margin substantially. Singh has been unsparing in his criticism of how the Gandhis treat their bloodline. The party and family rarely even mention Feroze Gandhi, Rahul’s grandfather, whose grave is 100km (60 miles) from Rae Bareli.
“A person who cannot be that of his grandfather, how can he be yours,” says Singh.
Barbershop politics
On the ground, Rahul and Priyanka are barnstorming the otherwise sleepy cities of Rae Bareli and Amethi, in their own ways.
Recently, Rahul slipped into a local barbershop to get his beard trimmed. His videos of sitting in the barbershop went viral. Priyanka divides time between the two towns, holding road shows and corner meetings.
The Congress has also brought in other heavyweight leaders to strengthen its campaigns here with their experience and political guile. At Rae Bareli’s Shalimar Guest House, Bhupesh Baghel, the former chief minister of the central state of Chhattisgarh, is marshalling supporters. “Rahul has a lot of support in Rae Bareli. So, I don’t have to do very much,” he says.
Ashok Gehlot, the former chief minister of Rajasthan, is handling the Congress campaign in Amethi against Smriti Irani, who has doubled down on her accusations that the Gandhi family neglected the town and Rae Bareli for decades despite winning from there.
The Congress is counting on the support of two key voting blocs. Muslims constitute 22 percent of Uttar Pradesh’s population. A Muslim leader from Amethi, Muhammad Alam, said many from his community could have considered voting for the BJP, but Modi’s recent attacks – including suggestions that the Congress would take Hindu wealth and give it to Muslims – had changed their minds.
Gautam Rane, a Dalit activist in Uttar Pradesh’s capital, Lucknow, says sections of the community, which sits at the bottom of India’s complex caste hierarchy, are also shifting towards the Congress. The community has traditionally backed the regional Bahujan Samaj Party in the state. The Congress has used stray comments by some BJP leaders to suggest that the party wants to change the constitution and take away caste-based affirmative action benefits from the Dalits – a charge that the BJP has denied.
“This is Rahul Gandhi’s elections,” Rane says. “No one [else] matters.”
* Name changed to protect identity
NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices rose in early trading Sunday as a standoff between Iran and the U.S. prevented tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway that is crucial to global energy supplies.
The price of U.S. crude oil increased 6.4% to $87.90 per barrel an hour after trading resumed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 5.8% to $95.64 per barrel.
The market reaction followed more than two days of lifted hopes and dashed expectations involving the strait. Crude prices plunged more than 9% Friday after Iran said it would fully reopen the strait, which it effectively controls, to commercial traffic.
Tehran reversed that decision and fired on several vessels Saturday after President Donald Trump said a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports would remain in effect. On Sunday, Trump said the U.S. attacked and forcibly seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that allegedly tried to get around the blockade. Iran’s joint military command vowed to respond.
Sunday’s higher prices wiped out much of the declines seen Friday, signaling renewed doubts about how soon ships will again transport the vast amounts oil the world gets from the Middle East.
The US-Israeli war against Iran, now in its eighth week, has created one of the worst global energy crises in decades. Countries in Asia and Europe that import much of their oil from the Gulf have felt the most impact of halted supplies and production cuts, although rapidly rising gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices are affecting businesses and consumers worldwide.
Asked when he thought U.S. motorists would again see gas cost less than $3 a gallon on average, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said prices at the pump might not go down that much until next year.
“But prices have likely peaked, and they’ll start going down,” Wright told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.
The price of crude oil — the main ingredient in gasoline — has fluctated dramatically since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and as Iran retaliated with airstrikes on other Gulf states. Crude traded at roughly $70 a barrel before the conflict, spiked to more than $119 at times, and previously closed Friday at $82.59 for U.S. oil and $90.38 for Brent.
Industry analysts have repeatedly warned that the longer the strait is closed, the worse prices could get.
A fragile, two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire Wednesday, while escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz puts the fate of new talks to end the war into question.
Even if a lasting deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz emerges, analysts say it could take months for oil shipments to return to normal levels and for fuel prices to go down. Backed-up tanker traffic, shipowners concerned about another sudden escalation, and energy infrastructure damaged during the war are factors that could impede production and shipment volumes from returning to pre-war levels.
A gallon of regular gas cost an average of nearly $4.05 a gallon in the U.S. on Sunday, according to motor club federation AAA. That’s about 8 cents lower than a week ago, but far higher than $2.98 before the war.
Trump warns Iran it ‘can’t blackmail’ US with Hormuz closure
Fox News reports on heightened tensions in the Middle East as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reaffirms strict control over the Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships. President Donald Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, states the US naval blockade will remain in full force. White House correspondent Alex Hogan provides updates on the escalating diplomatic and military standoff.
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Hundreds of commercial tankers are stranded on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran shut the critical chokepoint on April 18, halting traffic and leaving crews trapped amid reports of gunfire and “traumatic experiences” on board.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered an international waterway under international law, through which ships have the right of transit passage, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint for global energy markets, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said Iranian gunboats opened fire on a tanker the same day, while a projectile struck a container vessel, damaging cargo.
STARMER AND MACRON ACCUSED OF ‘PLAYING AT BEING RELEVANT’ WITH STRAIT OF HORMUZ PLAN
U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that “U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are among the assets executing a blockade mission impacting Iranian ports.” (CENTCOM)
Audio released by maritime monitoring group TankerTrackers appears to capture the moment a vessel and its crew came under fire while approaching the strait, including a distress call from a crew member.
“Sepah Navy! Motor tanker Sanmar Herald! You gave me clearance to go… you are firing now. Let me turn back!” the crew member can be heard saying in the recording, according to TankerTrackers.
Iranian state media confirmed that shots were fired near vessels to force them to turn back, while the Ministry of External Affairs of the Government of India said the foreign secretary was deeply concerned.
Hapag-Lloyd, the world’s fifth-largest container shipping line, told Fox News Digital that it had activated a crisis team as its crews remain stuck on board vessels in the region.
“We have been working from Friday afternoon until today with the entire crisis team to bring the vessels out — in vain, unfortunately,” said Nils Haupt, senior director of group communications at Hapag-Lloyd AG.
“These events can easily lead to traumatic experiences. There is also a significant risk from sea mines, which has made insuring vessels for passage through the Strait nearly impossible.”
LISA DAFTARI: HORMUZ WHIPLASH PROVES TEHRAN CAN’T HONOR ANY DEAL IT SIGNS
“The crews are well, but they are becoming increasingly impatient and frustrated. It is very unfortunate that we could not leave today,” he added. “Many ships are still stuck in the Persian Gulf.”
“Our six ships are anchored near the port of Dubai, and all crews hope for an improvement in the situation,” Haupt said.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on April 18 that the strait would remain closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, warning ships not to move from anchorage or risk being treated as “enemy” collaborators.
Iran has previously argued that restrictions on its oil exports and shipping amount to “economic warfare,” framing actions in the Strait of Hormuz as a response to foreign pressure on its economy, according to statements from Iranian officials and state media in past incidents.
“Approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and any violating vessel will be targeted,” the IRGC said in a statement carried by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency.
TRUMP ORDERS A BLOCKADE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS TENSIONS WITH IRAN SOAR
Fishing boats dot the sea as cargo ships, in the background, sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz off the United Arab Emirates, Friday, March 27, 2026. (AP Photo)
The United States imposed the blockade on Iranian ports to pressure Tehran to reopen the strait, with U.S. Central Command saying the measures are being enforced “impartially against all vessels.”
Hapag-Lloyd said its vessels have been stuck for weeks following the initial closure after the outbreak of war with Iran on Feb. 28.
“For us, it is critical that our vessels can pass through the strait soon,” Haupt said.
“We offer all crew members unlimited data so they can video call loved ones and access entertainment. Crews are strong, but after weeks on board there is growing monotony and frustration.”
“One crew experienced a fire on board from bomb fragments. Others have seen missiles or drones near their vessels,” he added.
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“They are resilient, but each additional day makes the situation more difficult, more monotonous, and more stressful.”
President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed not to close the strait again but after the closure, Trump called the situation “blackmail” and said the U.S. would not back down.
Shops and schools shut in northern Israel as residents protested a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon that took effect on April 16, saying “nothing was achieved”. Israeli officials say operations may continue, with forces still deployed inside southern Lebanon.
Published On 19 Apr 2026
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