JERUSALEM – The Lebanon-based Hezbollah terrorist movement on Wednesday pummeled Israel’s northern border, including Tiberias, where Jesus performed miracles, with rockets after the Jewish state eliminated a senior Hezbollah commander responsible for military operations.

According to a statement from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the “IDF struck a Hezbollah command and control center used to direct attacks from southeastern Lebanon and eliminated its commander, Sami Taleb Abdullah.”

Hezbollah’s aerial warfare apparatus sent a swarm of more than 200 rockets into northern Israeli communities. The IDF did not report any injuries.

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The IDF said on Tuesday “A Hezbollah command and control center in the area of Jouaiyya in Southern Lebanon, which was used to direct terror attacks against Israeli territory from southeastern Lebanon in recent months, was struck by the IAF. As part of the strike, Sami Taleb Abdullah, the commander of the Nasr Unit in the Hezbollah terrorist organization, was eliminated. Sami Taleb Abdullah was one of Hezbollah’s most senior commanders in southern Lebanon.”

The IDF added, “For many years, the terrorist planned, advanced, and carried out a large number of terror attacks against Israeli civilians. Three additional Hezbollah terrorist operatives were also eliminated in the strike.”

The IDF said it “struck a Hezbollah command and control center used to direct attacks from southeastern Lebanon and eliminated its commander, Sami Taleb Abdullah.” (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)

Up to 80,000 Israelis have fled the northern border areas since Oct. 7, as the Iran-backed Hezbollah has intensified its mini-war against Israel.

“The front has certainly been heating up, and Hezbollah chief Nasrallah has dismissed any chance of stopping until Israel agrees to a Gaza ceasefire, thus trying to establish his militia as part of the Israel-Palestinian scene, something that Israel doesn’t want to see happen,” Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at FDD told Fox News Digital.

Sirens went off as the Israeli defense system intercepted rockets fired towards northern Israeli towns from Lebanon on Wednesday. (Reuters.) (Reuters)

“Israel wants to get done with the northern front, independent of Gaza, with a deadline being September (start of school year) for Israeli refugees to be able to return home. This will require a major escalation, which is currently underway. A full scale war seems to be close, perhaps as soon as the end of this month,” warned the Lebanon expert.

Hezbollah first initiated its aerial attacks on Israel shortly after the Gaza Strip-based terrorist organization Hamas invaded Israel on Oct. 7. Hamas massacred nearly 1,200 people, including more than 30 Americans.

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Funeral of Hezbollah terrorist Taleb Abdallah, a senior commander for the group. (Reuters via Al Manar TV pool)

Last week, after Hezbollah rockets into Israel caused a massive outbreak of fires in the north, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Jewish state is “prepared for very intense action in the north” in response to Hezbollah’s continued rocket and drone attacks into northern Israel.

Speaking from an Israeli military base in Kiryat Shmona, Netanyahu declared, “We said, at the start of the war, that we would restore security in both the south and the north – and this is what we are doing. Today I am on the northern border with our heroic fighters and commanders, as well as with our firefighters. Yesterday the ground burned here, and I am pleased that you have extinguished it, but ground also burned in Lebanon.”

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the IDF Gibor base in Kiryat Shmona, where he was briefed by 769th Brigade Commander Avraham Marciano and Northern Command Home Front coordinator Brig.-Gen. (Res.) Alon Friedman on the operational situation, recent events in the sector, management of the defensive battle and actions being taken to defend the communities and residents in the north on June 5, 2024. (Israeli Government Press Office)

“Israel, from the very beginning, said first Gaza and then deal with the north,” Brig. Gen. (Res) Amir Avivi, a former deputy commander of the Israel Defense Forces’ Gaza Division, told Fox News Digital last week.

“In the coming weeks, the main missions in Rafah will end. Most of the troops will be sent north and there will be a threat to Hezbollah, calling them to retreat, according to U.N. resolution 1701, and if they don’t retreat, and if there is no American leadership threatening Hezbollah or Iran, and no international pressure, Israel will have to attack and do a ground incursion into south Lebanon while destroying most of Hezbollah’s long-range capabilities,” he said.

According to Avivi, the United Nations Security Council has failed to enforce resolution 1701, whose purpose was to disarm Hezbollah following the end of its 2006 against Israel.

In reference to the Hezbollah rockets hitting areas that have major significance to Christians, Rev. Johnnie Moore, the president of The Congress of Christian Leaders, on Wednesday wrote on X, “Hezbollah is firing hundreds of rockets into the Christian heartland of N. Israel … in the idyllic hills around Galilee….where Jesus lived, where most of his ministry took place, near to where the Sermon on the Mount was preached…where millions of Christians visit today.” 

The Israeli news outlet Ynet reported on Wednesday that the pro-Hezbollah Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar wrote about the elimination of Taleb Abdullah. “The enemy dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah in a security-military operation targeting one of the prominent commanders in the current confrontation, accompanied by additional fighters during an Israeli drone strike on a house in the village of Jouaiyya.”

The IDF announced on Monday that more than 19,000 unguided rockets have been launched at the Jewish state since Oct. 7. Most of the rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip, but a sizable number of projectiles have been launched by Hezbollah. The U.S.and many other Western and non-Western countries have designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization. 

Sunday’s European elections stunned Europe as far-right parties surged in France.

The National Rally is set to claim about 31% of votes, more than doubling President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party at 15%.

Macron immediately announced, “I have decided to give you back the choice of your parliamentary future through voting. Therefore, I dissolve the National Assembly tonight”, calling for rapid legislative elections on 30 June and 7 July.

This rare move, which last took place in 1997, is a bit like King Arthur’s testing the gods’ trust by reinserting Excalibur.

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Macron’s decision to call new legislative elections has been described as bold, reckless, and desperate.

In truth, it’s a calculated risk with potentially higher rewards than inaction. Most likely, the far right will not win the French legislative elections.

What happens if Macron’s strategy succeeds?

It would counter the prevailing narrative that the far right is taking over France. Today’s headlines suggest this trend and it’s crucial to address it early.

By returning to the voters, Macron aims to show that the European election results don’t mirror the wider political sentiment in France.

This move could also mobilise those worried about the far right’s rise, serving as a call to action. With Macron’s pro-European stance, this could significantly curb the far right’s momentum both in the EU and globally.

The National Rally — known as the National Front until 2018 — already secured first place in the European Parliament elections in 2019 and before that in 2014. But historically, the far right struggles to mirror its EU success in French national elections.

Let’s look at the popular vote. In the 2019 European elections, the National Rally received a total of 5,286,939 votes. However, three years later, during the French legislative elections, it only received 3,589,269 votes.

There is a 32.1% cut when you move from the EU to the national level. Using the same rate, the 7,765,944 votes of 9 June would shrink to 5,272,250.

In 2022, the winner (Ensemble) gathered 8,002,419 votes, and in 2017, LREM won with 7,826,245 votes. Macron is betting that the National Rally will not find an additional 2.5 million voters in less than a month.

Much more complex (and accurate) modelling strategies exist, but the main point is that replicating this win at the French level is unlikely and would represent a seismic political shift.

It’s not one round in the ring — it’s two

The drop from EU to French election results comes from different voting systems. France’s two-round electoral system for legislative elections is a significant barrier to far-right parties.

While these parties may perform well in the first round when traditional parties are divided, the second round sees a shift. Here, voters from both left and right often unite behind more moderate candidates to prevent a far-right victory, a strategy known as the “Republican Front”.

Despite making gains, the far right struggles to build the broad coalition necessary to win in the final round.

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And in French parliamentary elections, results are decided locally across 577 constituencies, favouring parties with broad, evenly spread support. The National Rally may dominate specific regions but fail to achieve the widespread vote distribution necessary to win multiple seats.

Larger parties not only have more uniform support but also more resources to get strong, locally recognized candidates across all constituencies, enhancing their chances of securing a majority. The National Rally will struggle to find competitive candidates across all constituencies quickly.

And there are peculiar reasons why French voters might lean far-right in EU elections but opt for moderation nationally. Economic issues, where Macron’s party shows strength, dominate national elections and sway undecided voters.

Additionally, the perceived low impact of the European Parliament on daily life makes EU elections a safe venue for protest votes with minimal consequences. This is true in France and in Europe more generally — but Bardella’s notable absence in Strasbourg amplifies this low-risk perception.

However, the path to becoming prime minister and governing is much steeper. Macron appears to be counting on catching the National Rally off-guard and highlighting their program’s inconsistencies.

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What happens if the National Rally wins?

One cannot downplay the growing influence of the far right in French politics and Europe in general.

These parties have capitalized on a wave of discontent among voters who are dissatisfied with the current government’s policies on economic development, immigration, and security.

So what if, against what I believe to be all odds, the National Rally wins and gets to govern? Then Bardella and Le Pen will be in the driver’s seat. It is much harder than being in the opposition.

If it governs badly, it will suffer a huge setback during the 2027 elections. And if it governs effectively and resolves every economic, social, and environmental issue, then we’ll all live happily ever after. So even in this less likely scenario, Macron’s strategy might be a winning one.

I don’t have a crystal ball, and this is one heck of a chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it will make history. But it is a much more calculated move than it seems.

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Pierre-Alexandre Balland is Chief Data Scientist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank.

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