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How Support for Britain’s Conservative Party Is Collapsing

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How Support for Britain’s Conservative Party Is Collapsing

The Conservatives have dominated British politics for 14 years, holding onto power through crisis after crisis, including some of their own making.

Now, as unhappy Britons prepare to go to the polls, the Conservatives are facing the prospect of irrelevance. Polls suggest they could secure their lowest share of seats in Parliament in perhaps a century.

After a turbulent five years of government, their base has fractured.

Some are going left, with the party polling around 20 percentage points behind Labour. Others are heeding the lure of the hard right, with a third of those Britons who voted Conservative last time now saying they will support the anti-immigration Reform party, led by Nigel Farage.

Polls suggest the election results could be catastrophic for the Conservatives. While polling often narrows as an election gets closer, Conservative fortunes have shown little sign of improving.

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Here are some key reasons why:

Voters feel the country is worse off

Many voters say they feel the Conservative party has left Britain in a worse state than before it came to power.

Promising to finalize Brexit, which took Britain out of the E.U., was a big vote winner for Conservatives in the last election. Britons have other concerns now. This time, they say, the biggest issues are the economy and health care, followed by immigration. And voters think Labour is better prepared to handle all three, according to polling from YouGov.

Voters’ top issues are no longer Conservative strengths

What Britons said were the top issues facing the country

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Source: YouGov polling on June 10, 2024 and Dec. 1, 2019

Note: Crime and immigration were tied on 22 percent when polled on Dec. 1, 2019, but crime polled as a higher concern on average in the ten polls prior.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, set off an economic crisis after she announced plans for tax cuts, deregulation and borrowing.

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Seven and a half million people are waiting for elective care from the National Health Service, five million more than when the Conservatives took power in 2010.

And despite Conservative pledges to reduce immigration, net migration reached an all-time high in 2023.

The loss in confidence in Conservatives to address these issues has followed a period of intense change and turmoil.

The Conservatives oversaw steep spending cuts after the 2009 financial crisis, arguing that austerity would restore public finances. Prime Minister David Cameron called the divisive Brexit referendum in 2016, and then resigned.

Since the last election, the government has had to grapple with Covid-19, an energy crunch after Russia cut gas supplies to Europe, and high inflation. It has also lurched through a series of self-inflicted crises, cycling through three prime ministers and five chancellors, who are responsible for economic policy.

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The Conservatives’ most reliable voters are deserting them

More than half the people who voted for the Conservatives in the last election tell pollsters that they now plan to vote for a different party.

Source: Average of YouGov polls June 6 to 18, 2024

Those voters who say they will abandon the Conservatives include some of the party’s most reliable supporters.

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Over the last few decades, age has replaced class as the main predictor of political support in Britain, with Conservatives winning more older voters. In the last election, the age at which someone was more likely to vote Conservative than Labour was roughly 40 or older.

Now, polling suggests that Conservatives are only ahead in one age group: people over age 65.

How party support has changed since the 2019 election

Source: YouGov polling on June 10, 2024 and Dec. 17, 2019

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Conservative candidates could be wiped out in Britain’s youngest areas, according to the latest polling from YouGov. And Labour seems poised to make a significant dent among older constituencies too, with the center-left Liberal Democrats eroding Conservative control of seats across the age groups.

In the last election, some of the most deprived areas of the country — based on factors like income, housing and health — voted for the Conservative Party for the first time.

When ballots are counted this time, polls suggest, the party’s supporters may be far less broad-based economically, given how Labour is polling among lower-income people.

At the same time, Keir Starmer, Labour’s leader, has ruthlessly moved the party to the center since taking it over, doing so at the risk of alienating some of the party’s more left-wing supporters. He has made a U-turn on a pledge to spend £28 billion per year on a green investment plan, saying that the country could no longer afford it, and he has been less critical of Israel over civilian deaths in Gaza than many supporters would like.

Polls suggest this approach is costing Labour support among 18- to 24-year-olds as they gravitate to smaller parties, including the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. The seat of Bristol Central — a city with a large amount of young, educated voters in southwest England — could be won by the Green party for the first time.

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Losing seats in Labour’s historic heartlands, and beyond

After a disastrous performance in the last election, Labour needs to win an extra 120 seats in Parliament compared to the last election to gain power. It’s an extraordinary number, and a daunting task. Mr. Starmer, the party’s leader, is also unpopular, surveys show, although his standing in polling has improved throughout the campaign.

But the latest polling suggests Labour could win seats across the country and transform Britain’s electoral map.

Labour could win back its historic heartlands it lost at the last election

Source: YouGov seat estimates

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One key test for Labour will be whether it can win back postindustrial heartlands in the Midlands and north of England, traditionally known as the “red wall.” Many of these seats turned over to Conservative candidates for the first time in 2019 after voters there backed Brexit.

The geography of each party’s voter base is crucial in this election, as Britain’s electoral system rewards parties with highly concentrated voter bases.

The Liberal Democrats are showing particular strength in a small number of wealthier, older seats in England’s south, where it is competing with the Conservative Party for seats rather than Labour. Pollsters expect it to win 30 to 50 seats, almost all at the expense of the Conservatives.

Losing Brexit voters to the far-right

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One of the biggest unknowns is how well the hard-right Reform Party will perform.

Nigel Farage, who shook up the campaign in early June when he took over as Reform’s leader, hopes to capitalize on discontent among Conservative voters and rising concern about immigration to win seats in parliament. In the longer term, Farage said he hopes to be a candidate for prime minister by 2029, when the following election would be scheduled.

His gamble appears to be paying off, with a recent YouGov poll finding Reform passing the Conservatives by drawing support from nearly one in five voters surveyed.

Where Reform is finding the most support

Source: YouGov seat estimates

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“It’s the geography of that support that is so, so dangerous for the Conservatives,” said Will Jennings, a political science professor at the University of Southampton. Unlike the Liberal Democrats, Reform’s voter base is spread thinly across the country, and, while that makes it difficult to win seats, it could split the right-wing vote across the country and cause the Conservatives to lose more seats to Labour.

“Reform picking up 15 to 20 points in some of those constituencies would potentially allow — even if they also pick up a little bit of Labour’s votes as well — Labour to overturn huge majorities,” Mr. Jennings said.

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Disney’s live-action ‘Moana’ crashes to shore with an underwhelming splash at the box office

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Disney’s live-action ‘Moana’ crashes to shore with an underwhelming splash at the box office

The Walt Disney Company’s live action “Moana” may be the No. 1 movie at the domestic box office, but it did not make a big splash in its first weekend in theaters.

The movie, which cost a reported $250 million to produce, earned just $43 million from ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada, according to studio estimates Sunday.

Internationally, it earned $52 million from 50 markets, adding up to a $95 million global debut.

The studio bet big on “Moana,” one of its most popular franchises. The 2016 animated film is the most watched movie on Disney+. Its sequel, which was stitched together from a planned streaming series, made over $1 billion and scored a Thanksgiving record when it opened with $225 million in 2024. “Moana 2” was also released just 19 months ago.

This latest “Moana,” directed by Thomas Kail, brings Dwayne Johnson back as the demigod Maui and introduces Catherine Lagaʻaia as the adventuring Polynesian princess. Despite praise for Lagaʻaia, the film set sail on a wave of dismal reviews from critics for being essentially a shot-for-shot remake of the original.

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What audiences say about “Moana”

It’s currently sitting at a 34% on Rotten Tomatoes. Audiences, the majority of whom were women (66%), were less negative: According to PostTrak, 63% said they would “definitely” recommend the film to their friends. Parent reactions were even stronger, with 78% saying they would recommend it to other parents. It also got a promising A- CinemaScore.

Disney’s live action remakes of beloved animated films, new and old, have had their share of successes and disappointments. Some have made over $1 billion, including “Lilo & Stitch,” “The Lion King” and “Beauty and the Beast.” Others have floundered, most notably last year’s “Snow White,” which made only $205 million worldwide. “Moana” opened more on par with “Snow White” ($42.2 million).

Paul Dergarabedian, the head of marketplace trends for Rentrak, said “Moana’s” debut could also be a product of PG-rated oversaturation in the marketplace: Universal’s “Minions & Monsters” was in second place with $20.5 million and “Toy Story 5” was close behind in third place with $18.5 million.

“Families love going to the movies, but right now there are three of them,” Dergarabedian said. “That’s a lot of competition.”

PG-rated films outgrossed others in 2024 and 2025, so “Moana’s” performance may not be a case of “family movie fatigue,” he said, but simply shows there can be a ceiling. Families have to make a choice, and after four weekends, “Toy Story 5” is still going strong with a running global total of $879.1 million.

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There also are signs that these movies might not sink or swim based on the opening weekend alone. Although “Minions & Monsters” opened below expectations over the Fourth of July holiday, it also had a modest 45% drop this weekend. Its running domestic total is currently sitting at $108.3 million.

Elsewhere at the box office, horror and history

The weekend’s other big new opener was definitely not PG: The R-rated horror “Evil Dead Burn,” a Warner Bros. release, opened in fourth place with $13.7 million. It’s a significant dip from the previous two films in the series, which both opened in the $25 million range.

Angel Studios’ George Washington movie “Young Washington” rounded out the top five films in its second weekend in theaters, with $6.4 million. Olivia Wilde’s chamber dramedy “The Invite” landed in sixth place in its first weekend in wide release, with $5.7 million from 1,610 theaters.

And though it has dropped out of the top 10 domestically, “Michael” has officially crossed $1 billion at the worldwide box office, only the second film this year to do so after “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie.” It’s also now the highest grossing musical biopic of all time, a title previously held by “Bohemian Rhapsody.”

The total domestic box office for the year is currently sitting just under $5.2 billion, up about 10.7% from this point last year. While both May and June were very strong — both generating over $1 billion in North America — July, Dergarabedian said, has faced some headwinds with a string of underperformers, including “Supergirl.” Things will likely pick up next week with the arrival of Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” followed by “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” the weekend after.

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“They could power a stronger August than July at the box office, which would be very unusual,” Dergarabedian said.

Top 10 movies by domestic box office

With final domestic figures being released Monday, this list factors in the estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Rentrak:

1. “Moana,” $43 million.

2. “Minions & Monsters,” $20.5 million.

3. “Toy Story 5,” $18.5 million.

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4. “Evil Dead Burn,” $13.7 million.

5. “Young Washington,” $6.4 million.

6. “The Invite,” $5.7 million.

7. “Obsession,” $3.8 million.

8. “Supergirl,” $3.6 million.

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9. “Disclosure Day,” $3.2 million.

10. “Backrooms,” $1.5 million.

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New Germany sex-crime figures reignite migration fight as exploitation probe expands

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New Germany sex-crime figures reignite migration fight as exploitation probe expands

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New German crime figures and an expanding investigation into an alleged sexual exploitation of teenage girls near the Nuremberg, Germany, central railway station are intensifying a broader European battle over migration, integration and whether officials have been too reluctant to confront patterns of organized sexual abuse.

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Germany recorded 751 cases categorized as group rapes in 2025, according to the federal government’s response to a parliamentary inquiry submitted by the opposition Alternative für Deutschland party. All parties represented in the Bundestag German federal parliament may submit formal questions requiring government responses, a key tool through which opposition lawmakers scrutinize federal policy.

Police identified 1,087 suspects in the cases, including 509 German citizens and 578 non-German nationals. Syrians were the largest foreign-national group, with 110 suspects, followed by Afghans with 64, Iraqis with 46 and Turks with 44.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT SOCCER COACH WHO USED ALCOHOL AND DRUGS TO SEXUALLY ABUSE KIDS LEARNS FATE

Two defendants hold folders in front of their faces while a defense attorney talks to one of them at a trial in Freiburg, Germany, July 23, 2020.  (Philipp von Ditfurth/dpa via AP)

The government cautioned that “group rape” is not a separate criminal offense or standardized police category. Officials generated the figures by filtering recorded rape cases in which suspects were listed as not acting alone. The numbers represent suspects identified during police investigations, not people convicted in court.

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The figures emerged as investigators in Nuremberg, Germany, pursued allegations that vulnerable girls were deliberately drawn into a network involving affection, gifts, narcotics and sexual exploitation.

Bavarian police said in May that men operating around the city’s main railway station allegedly approached girls from unstable or vulnerable backgrounds, initially offering them attention, clothing or cosmetics. Investigators said some were later given hard drugs, including crystal meth, and that their resulting dependency was allegedly exploited to obtain sexual acts or other “services.”

STEPDAD ACCUSED OF SEX ASSAULT AS COPS WIDEN PROBE INTO GIRL’S LETHAL BENADRYL INGREDIENT DOSE

Protesters gather before a party convention of Alternative for Germany, or AfD in Erfurt, Germany, July 4, 2026. (Ebrahim Noroozi/The Associated Press )

The investigation, known as EKO Kajal, has continued to expand. Police said Tuesday that 10 suspects were being held in pretrial detention in cases involving alleged sexual offenses against girls and young women and the distribution of drugs or medication to minors.

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In the latest arrests, police alleged that a 21-year-old Syrian man raped two girls, ages 15 and 18, in a Nuremberg, Germany, apartment after they were given narcotics by a 40-year-old Syrian man. Both men were detained, but the accusations remain allegations and have not been adjudicated. 

Emma Schubart, a research fellow at the London-based Henry Jackson Society, told Fox News Digital that the Nuremberg allegations bear similarities to grooming-gang cases uncovered in Britain, where girls were plied with drugs and alcohol before being repeatedly abused by groups of men.

“It’s a severe failure in both countries,” Schubart said, arguing that the problem begins with insufficient screening and continues with inadequate integration after migrants arrive.

“The first step that both authorities in the U.K. and in Germany really are not doing is screening migrants effectively,” she said. “But then, once the migrants are already here, the integration policy is completely lacking.”

Schubart said the isolation of some immigrant communities can contribute to “ghettoization” and create environments in which criminal networks operate with limited scrutiny or cooperation with authorities.

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She also challenged the argument that disparities in some sexual-offense statistics can be explained primarily by poverty.

POLYGAMOUS SECT LEADER CONVICTED ON STATE CHARGES AFTER GIRLS FOUND IN UNVENTILATED TRAILER

A supporter wearing a plastic policeman’s helmet and holding fake money criticizes the way the police dealt with the grooming gang scandal on Jan. 29, 2022, in Telford, England. (Martin Pope/Getty Images)

“Socioeconomic factors matter, but they absolutely do not fully explain the disparities,” Schubart said. “Native Germans from similar socioeconomic backgrounds absolutely do not show equivalent rates in group sexual offending.”

Schubart said she viewed the apparent intersection between drugs and sexual exploitation as an especially important parallel with Britain.

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“In the U.K. and in Germany, it’s a very similar pattern where it’s basically drug trafficking that also involves sex trafficking,” she said. “These drug-trafficking networks and cells operate across the country, not just in those cities where we see the crimes playing out.”

Britain has spent years reckoning with grooming scandals in places such as Rotherham, Rochdale, Telford and Oxford, England, where official reviews found that police, social workers and local authorities repeatedly missed or ignored evidence that vulnerable children were being systematically abused.

Baroness Louise Casey’s national audit, published by the British government in June 2025, concluded that inconsistent definitions, incomplete records and failures to collect ethnicity data made it impossible to establish the full national scale of group-based child sexual exploitation. It nevertheless found evidence of the disproportionate representation of Pakistani-heritage suspects in some local datasets and cases, while warning against extrapolating those findings to the entire country.

The British government later backed an independent inquiry intended to examine failures or obstruction by police, councils and other public bodies in relevant local areas.

Schubart argued that officials in both countries have sometimes avoided discussing offenders’ backgrounds out of concern that doing so could damage relations with minority communities.

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“In the U.K., it’s usually the phrase ‘community relations,’” she said. “There’s a huge effort to not threaten community relations.”

Germany’s ifo Institute reported in February 2025 that its analysis of district-level police data from 2018 through 2023 found no correlation between a rising foreign population and local crime rates, including in areas receiving more refugees.  

“We find no correlation between an increasing share of foreigners in a district and the local crime rate,” ifo researcher Jean-Victor Alipour said when the findings were released. “The same applies in particular to refugees.” Researchers said differences in suspect rates can be influenced by age, sex, urban concentration and other demographic factors.

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A woman poses with a sign as members of the public queue to enter a council meeting during a protest calling for justice for victims of sexual abuse and grooming gangs, outside the council offices at City Centre on Jan. 20, 2025, in Oldham, England. (Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)

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Germany’s Syrian population also plays a significant role in sectors facing severe labor shortages. 

The German Medical Association reported that 7,959 Syrian citizens were working as physicians in Germany at the end of 2025, making Syrians the country’s largest group of foreign doctors.

The competing evidence presents European governments with a difficult test: investigating organized exploitation and demographic patterns without political hesitation, while avoiding the suggestion that hundreds of suspects define millions of immigrants.

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‘Coalition of the Willing’ leaders to meet in Paris on Monday

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‘Coalition of the Willing’ leaders to meet in Paris on Monday

France is gearing up to host a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” ahead of this year’s 14 July celebrations, with at least 25 heads of state or government due to meet in Paris on Monday to discuss support for Ukraine.

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Created in Paris and jointly led with the United Kingdom, the coalition has now expanded to include 37 countries, meeting both in person and via video conference. Two new members, Moldova and North Macedonia, are scheduled to take part in Monday’s meeting for the first time.

Meeting at the Hôtel des Invalides, the allies will aim to “strengthen,” according to the French presidency, a renewed sense of unity and cooperation in support of Ukraine, which was reaffirmed at the recent G7 summit in Évian and at the NATO summit in Ankara, where allies committed to sending €70 billion in military aid to Kyiv in 2026.

The objective is to show that Western allies are continuing their support for Ukraine and that Moscow cannot rely on “war fatigue,” according to an adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron.

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Coalition leaders will focus on air defence cooperation, including newly announced US plans for the licensed production of Patriot missiles in Ukraine. They will also discuss the creation of an anti-ballistic missile system.

As for security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a hypothetical ceasefire, the French presidency says that plans to deploy a multinational force, stationed away from the front lines, are “ready”. They remain, however, “subject to change”, given that the prospect of an end to hostilities still appears distant.

Beyond the presence of troops on the ground, these guarantees would be based on “legally binding” bilateral agreements and on US involvement in monitoring a ceasefire.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to be in Paris on both Monday and Tuesday.

Bastille Day parade

The meeting is set to take place on the eve of France’s annual Bastille Day celebrations.

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The Élysée Palace has said that this year’s parade will bring together nearly 6,800 service personnel, with 15% more troops than last year and a 30% increase in the number of vehicles and aircraft taking part.

In total, nearly 500 service members representing the countries of the Coalition of the Willing are expected to lead the parade.

The French military’s aerial acrobatics team, the Patrouille de France, is also expected to take part, accompanied by two Mirage fighter jets carrying Ukrainian co-pilots trained in France. German, British, Croatian, Danish, Spanish, Greek, Italian, Norwegian, Polish, and Swedish aircraft are also set to feature in the parade.

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